Stochastic Differential Game of Sustainable Allocation Strategy for Idle Emergency Supplies in Post-Disaster Management
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Review of the Relevant Research
2.1. Resource Sharing in Supply Chains
2.2. Differential Game Models
2.3. Allocation of Emergency Supplies
- •
- The sharing economy offers a promising approach to addressing the challenges of supply–demand mismatches in post-disaster emergency supply management. At the same time, such a concept is rarely considered in related research. By introducing a resource sharing platform, this research studies allocation strategies for idle emergency supplies in the post-disaster recovery period [42,43].
- •
- The previous works focus on emergency management from the perspectives of supervision, cost, demand, response time, etc., but overlook the impact of uncertain factors. Players’ optimal strategies and decision-making processes can be greatly impacted by random factors, which accords with the uncertainty of emergency events [44,45]. This research employs stochastic differential game theory to model the optimization of emergency material allocation decisions. It examines the long-term effects of emergency material sharing and matching strategies [46,47].
- •
- Existing research on cost-sharing mainly focuses on incentive strategies for supply chain members [41], with few research works applying cost-sharing mechanisms in the study of resource sharing. This research incorporates a cost-sharing mechanism to improve the efficiency of emergency material allocation, identifies the prerequisites for its existence, and explores its impact on improving the efficiency of supply–demand allocation in downstream emergency supply chain systems [48,49].
3. Problem Description and Model Assumptions
3.1. Problem Description
- •
- The SDE incorporates random factors, such as unexpected surges in demand or delays in supply, which are common in post-disaster scenarios. For example, sudden needs for specific resources may arise due to evolving conditions, while supplies may degrade or become misallocated.
- •
- The equation accounts for the unpredictable nature of emergencies, where resource availability and demand are not constant but vary based on factors like the level of damage, logistics challenges, or weather conditions.
- •
- The model uses an SDE to allow for continuous adjustments in resource-sharing strategies. As more information becomes available or conditions change (e.g., new damage reports or the arrival of supplies), stakeholders can update their decisions in real time to optimize resource allocation.
3.2. Model Assumption
- (1)
- Players are assumed to act rationally, meaning they aim to maximize their benefits with full knowledge of the game [50].
- (2)
- The amount of emergency supplies is dynamic progress that can be improved by the matching and regulation efforts of the players. According to the goodwill model [51,52,53], we assume the idle emergency resource sharing level() satisfies
- (3)
- The term “CSR goodwill” indicates the social trust and positive reputation that a business cultivates as a result of its Corporate Social Responsibility activities. According to [54], CSR goodwill is a dynamic progress and is determined by diverse components, such as the matching efforts of the demander, platform, supplier, and random factors. Additionally, it is also affected by the idle emergency resource sharing level. Therefore, we assume the CSR goodwill (G) satisfies
- (4)
- (5)
- Resource sharing and corporate social responsibility can generate a positive external overflow of the provider and demander in the supply chain system, increasing market demand [57]. Considering the existence of competitive relationships among similar enterprises [58], the demand functions for the supplier and the demander in a competitive market can be written asHence, the objective functions are
3.3. Preliminary
4. Centralized Decision-Making
5. Decentralized Decision-Making Without Cost-Sharing Contract
6. Decentralized Decision-Making with Cost-Sharing Contract
7. Comparative Analysis and Numerical Simulations
7.1. Comparative Analysis
7.2. Numerical Simulations
8. Discussion
- (1)
- The study provides a flexible framework for government agencies and platforms to dynamically adjust resource-sharing strategies in real time, responding to unpredictable shifts in supply and demand during post-disaster recovery.Implementing real-time adjustments requires accurate, up-to-date data on supply and demand, which might not be readily available in post-disaster environments. Data infrastructure may be damaged, making it difficult for decision-makers to obtain the information needed for dynamic resource sharing. Second, multiple stakeholders, including governments, private companies, and NGOs, need to coordinate their efforts in a fast-paced environment. Achieving seamless collaboration, particularly across different sectors and regions, presents significant logistical challenges.Therefore, investment in disaster-resilient communication infrastructure and pre-established coordination protocols can help overcome these obstacles, ensuring that accurate information is available and decision-making processes are streamlined.
- (2)
- By modeling centralized and decentralized decision-making, the approaches empower decision-makers to evaluate the benefits of collaboration versus competition, helping them optimize resource allocation based on situational needs.The decision to implement centralized or decentralized strategies can be complex and depends on the context. For example, centralized models might work better in regions with strong government control, while decentralized models may be more effective in regions with strong private sector involvement. The challenge lies in assessing which model works best under specific disaster scenarios. Governments can create hybrid models that offer flexibility, combining the strengths of both centralized and decentralized approaches.
- (3)
- The game models offer valuable insights into government regulation and intervention strategies, showing how subsidies or leadership roles can effectively coordinate efforts among private sector actors, enhancing overall system resilience.Government interventions, such as subsidies or regulations, need to strike a balance between incentivizing resource-sharing without creating dependencies or inefficiencies. Excessive regulation could stifle innovation, while too little oversight might lead to free-riding or monopolistic behaviors. On the other hand, offering subsidies to encourage collaboration in resource sharing requires substantial funding, which might not be sustainable in the long run, especially for governments with limited resources.A phased approach to subsidies, where incentives decrease over time, can encourage self-sustainability. Additionally, governments can foster public–private partnerships to share the financial burden of maintaining robust resource-sharing systems.
- (1)
- This research contributes to applying stochastic differential games in emergency management, highlighting the role of uncertainty and randomness in decision-making processes.
- (2)
- By integrating three distinct game-theoretic models, the study provides a more comprehensive framework for understanding interactions between various players in a post-disaster context, allowing future researchers to extend these models to other uncertain environments.
- (3)
- The findings encourage further exploration into collaborative decision-making models and how they impact sustainability, resource efficiency, and long-term recovery in uncertain and dynamic environments.
- (1)
- Varying Resource Needs: Different disasters require vastly different types of resources. For instance, in a pandemic, medical supplies and healthcare resources are critical, while in a natural disaster like a hurricane, food, shelter, and infrastructure repair materials may take precedence. The model may need adjustments to account for the specific resources and supply chain needs of each disaster type.
- (2)
- Response Timelines: Some disasters, like earthquakes, demand immediate and urgent responses, while others, such as pandemics, unfold over a longer period. The model may require modifications to address the varying time scales and urgency associated with different types of crises.
- (3)
- Unpredictability and Scope: Natural disasters like earthquakes or floods tend to be geographically constrained, while pandemics are global in scope. The scalability of the model must account for both localized and wide-scale impacts, ensuring flexibility in resource distribution across multiple regions and time zones.
- (1)
- Differences in Governance: In countries with strong centralized governments, such as China or Saudi Arabia, the model’s centralized decision-making processes may be more effective. However, in decentralized democracies like the United States or India, where local governments and private entities play significant roles, the model may need to incorporate more decentralized decision-making mechanisms.
- (2)
- Regulatory Environments: National regulatory frameworks differ, impacting how CSR initiatives, resource sharing, and subsidies are implemented. In some countries, stringent regulations may make it difficult to mobilize private sector resources quickly, while in others, a lack of regulation might lead to uncoordinated or inefficient resource allocation.
- (3)
- Economic and Social Contexts: The availability of financial resources for subsidies, the level of technology adoption, and the culture of public–private collaboration vary greatly across countries. Developing countries may face greater challenges in implementing technologically driven platforms for resource sharing or in providing subsidies to incentivize CSR-driven resource distribution.
- (1)
- Adding Synergistic Terms: To reflect how one player’s effort can positively or negatively influence another’s, the model could incorporate synergistic terms that account for the mutual reinforcement or dependency of efforts. For example, let us assume efforts are exerted by different players, including cross-terms
- (2)
- Introducing a Combined Effort Term for Joint Contributions: A combined term representing a joint contribution of efforts can be introduced to model situations where players pool resources or synchronize strategies. This term could be denoted as , a weighted combination of each player’s effort
- (1)
- Rationality of Players: In reality, the assumption of full rationality is often unrealistic. Decision-makers, especially in emergency situations, may be driven by incomplete information, bounded rationality, or emotional responses such as urgency and fear. Stakeholders may lack the time or resources to make fully informed decisions, leading to suboptimal outcomes. This assumption may limit the model’s application to real-world situations, where human behavior can deviate from rationality. The model’s predictions may be overly optimistic regarding optimal resource allocation and collaboration.
- (2)
- Dynamic Progress of Emergency Supplies: While the assumption of dynamic progress is sound, in reality, supply chains are often constrained by logistical bottlenecks, infrastructure damage, and unpredictable external factors (e.g., weather, transportation breakdowns). Emergency supplies may not always reach their intended targets efficiently, regardless of the matching efforts. The assumption may overestimate the players’ ability to influence supply levels. If logistical challenges are not fully accounted for, the model’s results might be overly optimistic regarding the impact of matching efforts on resource allocation.
- (3)
- Influence of CSR Goodwill: CSR goodwill, while important, may not always translate directly into economic benefits, particularly in crisis situations where immediate needs often take priority over long-term reputation. Furthermore, CSR initiatives can vary significantly in effectiveness depending on cultural and regional contexts. Some stakeholders may not prioritize CSR to the extent the model assumes. The model assumes that CSR goodwill has a direct and measurable impact on demand and supply chain behavior, but in practice, this effect may be weaker or harder to quantify. This can reduce the model’s predictive power in situations where CSR is not a strong influencing factor.
- (4)
- Cost Functions and Effort Levels: In practice, the relationship between effort and cost may not always be convex. For example, some economies of scale could reduce costs with increased effort, while in other situations, diminishing returns may set in more quickly than expected. Moreover, financial constraints in post-disaster scenarios can limit the willingness or ability of players to invest in efforts, no matter the potential return. The model may overestimate the players’ ability to scale efforts if financial or logistical constraints are more severe than predicted. The cost–benefit analysis in real-world settings might not align perfectly with the convex cost structure assumed in the model.
- (5)
- Cross-Network Externalities and Cooperation: In practice, the external overflow effects generated by resource sharing and CSR may be more complex than assumed. Not all shared resources directly translate into market demand. For example, some types of shared resources might only create significant external benefits under specific conditions or in certain markets, while in other contexts, the effect could be minimal or nonexistent. If the real-world external overflow effects are not as strong as assumed, the model may overestimate the growth in market demand. This could lead to overly optimistic predictions, especially regarding how quickly resource sharing and CSR can stimulate demand.
9. Conclusions
- (1)
- Nash equilibrium ensures that each actor maximizes their benefit, essential for understanding decentralized decision-making in competitive environments.
- (2)
- The cooperative game model fosters collaboration between players, demonstrating how coordinated efforts can lead to optimal resource sharing and increased system-wide benefits.
- (3)
- The Stackelberg game provides insights into hierarchical decision-making, where leaders (such as the government) set strategies that followers (such as suppliers and demanders) react to, allowing for more efficient control and regulation of emergency resources.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
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Variable | Description |
---|---|
The matching effort of the demander | |
The matching effort of the platform | |
The matching effort of the supplier | |
The regulation effort of the government | |
The CSR goodwill | |
The idle emergency resource sharing level |
Parameter | Description |
---|---|
The natural decay rate of emergency supplies | |
The natural decay rate of CSR goodwill | |
The diffusion coefficient in (1) | |
The diffusion coefficient in (2) | |
r | The discount rate |
The marginal impact coefficient of D in (1) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of P in (1) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of S in (1) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of A in (1) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of D in (2) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of P in (2) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of S in (2) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of in (2) | |
The cost of the demander | |
The cost of the platform | |
The cost of the supplier | |
The cost of the government | |
The cost coefficient of the demander | |
The cost coefficient of the platform | |
The cost coefficient of the supplier | |
The cost coefficient of the government | |
The demand function of the supplier | |
The demand function of the demander | |
a | The potential size of the market |
The marginal revenue of the supplier | |
The marginal revenue of the demander | |
The substitute coefficient | |
The marginal impact coefficient of external overflow effect of in (3) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of external overflow effect of in (4) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of external overflow effect of G in (3) | |
The marginal impact coefficient of external overflow effect of G in (4) | |
c | The commission fee from the demander to the platform |
The resource usage fee from the demander to the supplier | |
The subsidy from the platform to the demander | |
The subsidy from the government to the platform | |
The marginal profit coefficients of the supplier | |
The marginal profit coefficients of the platform | |
The marginal profit coefficients of the demander | |
The marginal profit coefficients of the government |
c | ||||||||||||||
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↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | — | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | — | ↘ | — | — | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | ↘ | — | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | — | ↘ | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ |
c | ||||||||||||||
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— | ↗ | — | — | ↗ | ↗ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | — | |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ↘ | ↘ | — | ↘ | — | — | |
↗ | — | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↗ | — | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | ↘ | — | |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ↘ | — | — | — | — | ↘ | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ∼ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ∼ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ |
c | ||||||||||||||
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— | ↗ | — | — | ↗ | ↗ | ↘ | ↗ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | — | |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | ↗ | ↘ | ↘ | — | ↘ | — | — | |
↗ | — | ↗ | ↗ | — | — | ↗ | — | ↘ | ↘ | — | — | ↘ | — | |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | ↘ | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ∼ | ↗ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | |
↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ↗ | ∼ | ↗ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ | ↘ |
model n | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |||
model s | |||||||
model c | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
c | |||
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model n | ↘ | ↘ | |
↘ | ↘ | ||
↘ | ↘ | ||
↗ | |||
↗ | |||
↘ | ↗ | ||
model s | ∼ | ↗ | |
∼ | ↗ | ||
↘ | ↘ | ||
↗ | |||
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Li, L.; Wu, J.; Zhu, M.; Wang, M.; Li, Y. Stochastic Differential Game of Sustainable Allocation Strategy for Idle Emergency Supplies in Post-Disaster Management. Sustainability 2024, 16, 10003. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162210003
Li L, Wu J, Zhu M, Wang M, Li Y. Stochastic Differential Game of Sustainable Allocation Strategy for Idle Emergency Supplies in Post-Disaster Management. Sustainability. 2024; 16(22):10003. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162210003
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Lingfei, Jingyu Wu, Minting Zhu, Mancang Wang, and Yaoyuan Li. 2024. "Stochastic Differential Game of Sustainable Allocation Strategy for Idle Emergency Supplies in Post-Disaster Management" Sustainability 16, no. 22: 10003. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162210003
APA StyleLi, L., Wu, J., Zhu, M., Wang, M., & Li, Y. (2024). Stochastic Differential Game of Sustainable Allocation Strategy for Idle Emergency Supplies in Post-Disaster Management. Sustainability, 16(22), 10003. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162210003