Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Dataset
2.3. Model Development
3. Results
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Ivović, D. Suzbijanje Kukuruznog Plamenca (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn.) u Usevu Semenskog Kukuruza; Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Poljoprivredni Fakultet, Departman za Fitomedicinu i Zaštitu Životne Sredine: Novi Sad, Serbia, 2015; 49p. [Google Scholar]
- Čamprag, D. Integralna Zaštita Ratarskih Kultura od Štetočina; Poljoprivredni Fakultet Novi Sad, Institut za Zaštitu Bilja i Životne Sredine“Dr Pavle Vukasović”: Novi Sad, Serbia, 2000; 215p. [Google Scholar]
- Čamprag, D. Štetočine Kukuruza. Bolesti, Štetočine i Korovi Kukuruza i Njihovo Suzbijanje; DOO Školska knjiga: Novi Sad, Serbia, 2002; pp. 269–271. [Google Scholar]
- Čamprag, D.; Krnjaić, Đ.; Maceljski, M.; Maček, J.; Marić, A.; Vrabl, S. Priručnik Izveštajne i Prognozne Službe Zaštite Poljoprivrednih Kultura; Savez Društava za Zaštitu Bilja Jugoslavije: Beograd, Serbia, 1983; 682p. [Google Scholar]
- Čamprag, D.; Sekulić, R.; Kereši, T.; Bača, F. Kukuruzna Sovica (Helicoverpa armigera Hübner) i Integralne Mere Suzbijanja; Poljoprivredni Fakultet, Institut za Zaštitu Bilja i Životne Sredine “Dr Pavle Vukasović”: Novi Sad, Serbia, 2004; 183p. [Google Scholar]
- Ivezić, A.; Rugman-Jones, P.F.; Thibaut, M.; Ris, N.; Ignjatović-Cupina, A. Molecular identification of Trichogramma species parasitizing Ostrinia nubilalis in corn and pepper in south-east border of Europe. Int. J. Pest Manag. 2020, 67, 346–357. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Keszthelyi, S.; Lengyel, Z. Flight of the ECB (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn.) as followed by light and pheromone traps in Vardaadn´ balatonmagyarod. J. Cent. Eur. Agric. 2002, 4, 55–64. [Google Scholar]
- Gatch, E.W.; Munkvold, G.P. Fungal species composition in maize stalks in relation to ECB injury and transgenic insect protection. Plant Dis. 2002, 86, 1156–1162. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Magg, T.; Melchinger, A.E.; Klein, D.; Bohn, M. Relationship between ECB resistance and concentration of mycotoxins produced by Fusarium spp. in grains of transgenic Bt maize hybrids, their isogenic counterparts, and commercial varieties. Plant Breed. 2002, 121, 146–154. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Velasco, P.; Revilla, P.; Monetti, L.; Butron, A.; Ordas, A.; Malvar, R.A. Corn borers (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae; Crambidae) in Northwestern Spain: Population dynamics and distribution. Maydica 2007, 52, 195–203. [Google Scholar]
- Ivezić, A.; Trudić, B. Parasitoids of the genus Trichogramma (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae), natural enemies of European corn borer Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner, 1796) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae). J. Cent. Eur. Agric. 2021, 22, 787–797. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ivezić, M.; Raspudić, E. Intensity of attack of the corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hubner) on the territory of Baranja in the period 1971–1990. Nat. Croat. 1997, 6, 137–142. [Google Scholar]
- Sarajlić, A.; Raspudić, E.; Lončarić, Z.; Josipović, M.; Brmež, M.; Ravlić, M.; Zebec, V.; Majić, I. Significance of irrigation treatments and weather conditions on European corn borer appearance. Maydica 2018, 62, 8. [Google Scholar]
- Hudon, M.; Khanizadeh, S. Mortality of Overwintering Larvae of European Corn Borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hubner, from Continental Tillage Practices of Maize Field Debris. L. Agric. Entomol. 1993, 10, 121–124. [Google Scholar]
- Beck, S.D. Effects of thermoperiod on photoperiodic determination of larval diapause in Ostrinia nubilalis. J. Insect Physiol. 1985, 31, 41–46. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Skopik, S.D.; Bowen, M.F. Insect photoperiodism: An hourglass measures photoperiodic time in Ostrinia nubilalis. J. Comp. Physiol. 1976, 111, 249–259. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mason, C.E.; Rice, M.E.; Calvin, D.D.; Van Duyn, J.W.; Showers, W.B.; Hutchison, W.D.; Witkowski, J.F.; Higgins, R.A.; Onstad, D.W.; Dively, G.P. European Corn Borer. Ecology and Management; Iowa State University: Ames, IA, USA, 1996. [Google Scholar]
- Sandoya, G.; Malvar, R.A.; Santiago, R.; Alvarez, A.; Revilla, P.; Butrón, A. Effects of selection for resistance to Sesamid nonagrioides on maize yield, performance and stability under infestation with Sesamid nonagrioides and Ostrinia nubilalis in Spain. Annu. Appl. Biol. 2010, 156, 377–386. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Mazurek, J.; Hurej, M.; Jackowki, J. The effectiveness of selected chemical and biological insecticides in control of European Corn Borer (Ostrinia nubilalis hbn.) on sweet corn. J. Plant Prot. Res. 2005, 45, 41–47. [Google Scholar]
- Papst, C.; Utz, H.F.; Melchinger, A.E.; Eder, J.; Magg, T.; Klein, D.; Bohn, M. Mycotoxins produced by Fusarium spp. in isogenic Bt vs. non-Bt maize hybrids under European corn borer pressure. Agron. J. 2005, 97, 219–224. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Folcher, L.; Jarry, M.; Weissenberger, A.; Gerault, F.; Eychenne, N.; Delos, M.; Regnault-Roger, C. Comparative activity of agrochemical treatments on mycotoxin levels with regard to corn borers and Fusarium mycoflora in maize (Zea mays L.) fields. Crop. Prot. 2009, 28, 302–308. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pavić, P. Dinamika Pojave i Mogućnosti Praćenja Pojave Kukuruznog Moljca u Sinskom Polju; Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Agronomski fakultet: Zagreb, Croatia, 2016; 40p. [Google Scholar]
- Barzman, M.; Bàrberi, P.; Birch, A.N.E.; Boonekamp, P.; Dachbrodt-Saaydeh, S.; Graf, B.; Sattin, M. Eight principles of integrated pest management. Agron. Sustain. Dev. 2015, 35, 1199–1215. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Maiorano, A. A physiologically based approach for degree-day calculation in pest phenology models: The case of the European Corn Borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn.) in Northern Italy. Int. J. Biometeorol. 2012, 56, 653–659. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Derozari, M.B.; Showers, W.B.; Shaw, R.H. Environment and the sexual activity of the European corn borer. Environ. Entomol. 1977, 6, 657–665. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ankica, S.; Emilija, R.; Ivana, M.; Zdenko, L.; Mirjana, B.; Marko, J. Relationship between European corn borer feeding activity and nitrogen leaf content under different agricultural practices. Poljoprivreda 2015, 21, 41–45. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Trnka, M.; Muska, F.; Semeradova, D.; Dubrovsky, M.; Kocmankova, E.; Zalud, Z. European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate. Ecol. Model. 2007, 207, 61–84. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Maiorano, A.; Donatelli, M. Validation of an insect pest phenological model for the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn) in the Po Valley in Italy. Ital. J. Agrometeorol. 2014, 18, 43–50. [Google Scholar]
- Brown, G.C. A generalized phenological forecast model for European Corn Borer. J. Kans. Entomol. Soc. 1982, 55, 625–638. [Google Scholar]
- Got, B.; Rodolphe, F. Temperature-dependent model for European Corn Borer (Lepidoptera: Pyralydae) development. Environ. Entomol. 1989, 18, 85–93. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hrnjak, I.; Lukić, T.; Gavrilov, M.B.; Marković, S.B.; Unkašević, M.; Tošić, I. Aridity in Vojvodina, Serbia. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2014, 115, 323–332. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jonason, D.; Franzen, M.; Ranius, T. Surveying moths using light traps: Effects of weather and time of year. PLoS ONE 2014, 9, e92453. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Šikoparija, B.; Marko, O.; Panić, M.; Jakovetić, D.; Radišić, P. How to prepare a pollen calendar for forecasting daily pollen concentrations of Ambrosia, Betula and Poaceae? Aerobiologia 2018, 34, 203–217. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Breiman, L. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 2001, 4, 5–32. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Maestrini, B.; Mimić, G.; van Oort, P.A.J.; Jindo, K.; Brdar, S.; Athanasiadis, I.; van Evert, F.K. Mixing process-based and data-driven approaches in yield prediction. Eur. J. Agron. 2022, 139, 126569. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sammut, C.; Webb, G.I. Encyclopedia of Machine Learning; Springer: Boston, MA, USA, 2011. [Google Scholar]
- Anderson, T.E.; Kennedy, G.G.; Stinner, R.E. Temperature-dependent model for post diapause development and spring emergence of the European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in North Carolina. Environ. Entomol. 1982, 11, 1307–1311. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kelker, D.H.; Lee, D.A.; Spence, J.R. Use of standard temperature thresholds and phenological prediction for the European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis hubner € ) in Alberta. Can. Entomol. 1990, 122, 1247–1258. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Magai, R.N.; Decker, W.L.; Keaster, A.J. Simulation models for European corn borer post diapause morphogenesis and early infestation of maize in Missouri, USA. Int. J. Biometeorol. 1997, 40, 128–134. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Schaub, L.; Breitenmoser, S.; Derron, J.; Graf, B. Development and validation of a phenological model for the univoltine European corn borer. J. Appl. Entomol. 2016, 141, 421–430. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Forsmoo, J. The European Corn Borer in Sweden: A Future Perspective Based on a Phenological Model Approach. Master’s Thesis, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, 2014; pp. 1–57. [Google Scholar]
- Got, B.; Piry, S.; Migeon, A.; Labbate, J.M. Comparison of Different Models for Predicting Development Time of the European Corn Borer (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Environ. Entomol. 1997, 26, 46–60. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Got, B.; Lacan, G.F.; Smits, N.; Stephan, E. Validation d’un modèle de durée de développement larvaire des larves de pyrale, Ostrinia nu-bilalis Hbn. en France. Agronomie 1991, 11, 45–57. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Di Lena, B.; Giuliani, D.; Zinni, A.; Mazzocchetti, A.; Eccel, E. A climatic perspective of the presence of the European grapevine moth (Lobesia botrana Den. and Schiff) in the Abbruzzo Region, Italy. Ital. J. Agrometeorol. 2013, 18, 5–12. [Google Scholar]
Locality | Latitude | Longitude | AMS | Latitude | Longitude |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ruski Krstur | 45.5761 | 19.4044 | Ruski Krstur | 45.5544 | 19.4162 |
Srbobran | 45.5231 | 19.7553 | Srbobran | 45.5536 | 19.7998 |
Feketić | 45.6319 | 19.7179 | Zobnatica | 45.8525 | 19.6645 |
Bela Crkva | 44.9171 | 21.4060 | Bela Crkva | 44.8858 | 21.4218 |
Kikinda | 45.8640 | 20.4190 | Kikinda | 45.8283 | 20.4653 |
Lukićevo | 45.3370 | 20.5117 | Zlatica | 45.3871 | 20.5808 |
Banatska Topola | 45.6887 | 20.4981 | Banatska Topola | 45.8333 | 20.3167 |
Vrbas | 45.6778 | 19.3389 | Ruski Krstur | 45.5544 | 19.4160 |
Toplana | 45.7472 | 19.1325 | Toplana | 45.7510 | 19.1372 |
Bačka Topola | 45.7776 | 19.6855 | Zobnatica | 45.8525 | 19.6645 |
Karavukovo | 45.4729 | 19.1229 | Toplana | 45.7510 | 19.1372 |
Riđica | 45.9936 | 19.0908 | Riđica | 45.7937 | 19.3317 |
Gložan | 45.3211 | 19.5704 | Despotovo | 45.4658 | 19.5729 |
Gospođinci | 45.3649 | 19.9441 | Kać | 45.2780 | 19.9304 |
Inđija | 45.0437 | 20.1257 | Novi Slankamen | 45.1412 | 20.2136 |
Year | Integral | RMSE |
---|---|---|
2014 | 9979 | 32.30 |
2015 | 13,942 | 71.26 |
2016 | 11,881 | 69.09 |
2017 | 6550 | 65.27 |
2018 | 7205 | 54.75 |
2019 | 8861 | 41.23 |
2020 | 13,469 | 125.28 |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Ivezić, A.; Mimić, G.; Trudić, B.; Blagojević, D.; Kuzmanović, B.; Kaitović, Ž.; Petrović, K. Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management. Agronomy 2023, 13, 1494. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13061494
Ivezić A, Mimić G, Trudić B, Blagojević D, Kuzmanović B, Kaitović Ž, Petrović K. Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management. Agronomy. 2023; 13(6):1494. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13061494
Chicago/Turabian StyleIvezić, Aleksandar, Gordan Mimić, Branislav Trudić, Dragana Blagojević, Boris Kuzmanović, Željko Kaitović, and Kristina Petrović. 2023. "Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management" Agronomy 13, no. 6: 1494. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13061494
APA StyleIvezić, A., Mimić, G., Trudić, B., Blagojević, D., Kuzmanović, B., Kaitović, Ž., & Petrović, K. (2023). Development of a Predictive Model of the Flight Dynamics of the European Corn Borer, Ostrinia nubilalis Hübner, 1796 (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), in the Vojvodina Region, Serbia—Implications for Integrated Pest Management. Agronomy, 13(6), 1494. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13061494