Extending Multi-Pathway Human Health Risk Assessment from Regional to Country-Wide—A Case Study on Kuwait
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Literature Review, Objectives, and Additional Contributions
1.1.1. Literature Review
1.1.2. Objectives
- To implement a country-wide cumulative human health risk assessment incorporating multi-source and multi-pathway exposures.
- To compare country-wide human health risk variability by region, for example, coastal versus inland.
- To identify the chemical risk driver (defined by the authors as the dominant chemical of potential concern) for a particular sensitive receptor.
- To identify if the direct or indirect pathway is the dominant pathway of risk for a particular sensitive receptor.
1.1.3. Additional Contributions
- Extending and adapting EPA methodologies initially designed for hazardous waste combustion facilities to additional emission sources, including wastewater treatment plants, glycol dehydration units, but not including fugitives and mobile sources.
- Providing a case study for a region of the world seldom subjected to such human health risk assessments.
2. Materials and Methods
- Develop an emissions inventory (or augment an existing inventory) for each air quality zone.
- Conduct air dispersion modeling using current US regulatory air dispersion models, such as AERMOD or similar, to estimate pollutant concentrations in the air and their deposition rates in various exposure media.
- Estimate the concentrations of pollutants at the point-of-contact for receptor populations by conducting an environmental transport-and-fate analysis.
- Identify realistic exposure scenarios to estimate the types and magnitudes of human exposure to pollutants.
- Assess the levels, frequencies, and durations of contact between humans and pollutants.
- Calculate multi-pathway and cumulative cancer risks and non-cancer hazards for each air quality zone (risk characterization).
- Examine the contributing factors and underlying drivers of unacceptable risks (risk drivers).
2.1. Emissions Inventory (Step 1 in the Proposed Methodology)
- Measure the contribution of each sector’s emissions.
- Analyze emission trends both retrospectively and prospectively.
- Provide guidance and assistance to policymakers and industry in regulating emissions and establishing achievable targets.
- Supply the necessary data for accurate assessment of current or future emissions using air quality modeling tools, with an accurate emissions inventory being a prerequisite for air quality modeling.
- Identify locations for monitoring hazardous air pollutant hotspots.
2.2. Atmospheric Dispersion and Deposition Modeling (Step 2 in the Proposed Methodology)
2.2.1. Unitized Emission Approach
2.2.2. Meteorological Data
2.2.3. Air Dispersion Model General Options
2.2.4. Receptors (Calculation Points)
2.3. Transport, Fate, Exposure, and Risk Characterization (TFER)
2.3.1. Transport-and-Fate Modeling (Step 3 in the Proposed Methodology)
- Aboveground exposed produce concentration due to direct deposition: [mg/kg]
2.3.2. Exposure Quantification (Steps 4 and 5 in the Proposed Methodology)
2.3.3. Quantitative Estimation of Cancer Risk and Non-cancer Hazard (Step 6 in the Proposed Methodology)
2.3.4. Risk Driver Analysis: Forensic Analysis of Human Health Risks (Step 7 in the Proposed Methodology)
3. Results
3.1. Case Study
3.2. Cumulative Risk Results
3.2.1. Inland
3.2.2. Production
3.2.3. Coastal
4. Discussion
4.1. Risk Driver Analysis
4.2. Strengths and Limitations
4.3. Variability and Uncertainty
5. Conclusions
- The overall health risk profile across the inland, production, and coastal air quality zones of Kuwait is low to moderate, as most risk values lie beneath the established risk thresholds. This suggests that the current levels of pollutants quantified in this case study do not likely pose significant health threats to the adult and child residential population.
- The coastal air quality zone has a higher risk profile compared to the inland and production zones, particularly for cancer risks. However, these values are mostly within acceptable limits. An exception is the Ahmadi Hospital for the resident adult exposure scenario, where the cancer risk slightly exceeds the target level.
- The risk driver analysis identified benzo(a)pyrene as the primary risk driver contributing to the elevated cancer risk at the Ahmadi Hospital in the coastal zone, calculated to be 1.09 × 10−5, with the likely sources being local industrial emissions or combustion processes. However, it is important to note that our analysis assumes a resident adult exposure scenario that may not accurately represent the real-world exposure at the hospital. Specifically, it is unlikely that an individual would be exposed 24 h a day, 7 days a week over a lifetime in this location, suggesting that our estimates might overstate the actual risk.
- The inherent variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates are recognized, emphasizing the need for careful interpretation and further research, such as the employment of stochastic modeling.
6. Future Work
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations and Nomenclature
Abbreviations/Nomenclature | Meaning |
µg/m3 | micrograms per cubic meter |
ADD | average daily dose (inhalation, ingestion) |
API | American Petroleum Institute |
AQZ | air quality zone |
AT | averaging time |
BTEX | benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene |
BW | body weight |
Cair | concentration of pollutant(s) in the air |
Cmedium | concentration of pollutant(s) in the medium |
ED | exposure duration |
EF | exposure frequency |
ET | exposure time |
g | gram |
HAPs | hazardous air pollutants |
HHRAP | Human Health Risk Assessment Protocol |
IngR | ingestion rate |
InhR | inhalation rate |
ISCST3 | Industrial Source Complex Short Term 3 |
L | liter |
mg | milligram |
NASA | National Aeronautics and Space Administration |
PAHs | polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons |
SRTM | Shuttle Radar Topography Mission |
TFER | transport, fate, exposure, and risk characterization |
U.S. EPA | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency |
VOCs | volatile organic compounds |
WRF | Weather Research and Forecasting |
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Hazardous Air Pollutants | Emission Source Type | Major Exposure Route | Organ/System Affected | Citation |
---|---|---|---|---|
Methyl mercaptan | Point, area, volume | Inhalation | Respiratory | [13] |
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) | Point, area, volume, on-road, and non-road mobile sources | Inhalation; oral | Cardiovascular | [14,15,16,17] |
Mercury | Point, area, volume | Inhalation; oral | Central nervous and peripheral nervous systems | [18] |
Lead | Point, area, volume | Inhalation; oral | Central nervous and peripheral nervous systems | [19,20,21] |
Dioxins | Point, area, volume, on-road, and non-road mobile sources | Oral | Reproductive | [23,24,25,26] |
Benzene | Point, area, volume, on-road, and non-road mobile sources | Inhalation; oral | Hematological and respiratory | [27,28,29,30,31] |
Formaldehyde | Point, area, volume, on-road, and non-road mobile sources | Inhalation; oral | Hematological | [32] |
1,3-Butadiene | Point, area, volume, on-road, and non-road mobile sources | Inhalation | Hematological and immune | [33] |
Multi-Source | Multi-Pathway | Cumulative | Citation |
---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | No | [34] 2020; [35] 2015; [36] 2012 |
No | Yes | No | [37] 2022; [38] 2019; [39] 2009 |
Yes | No | Yes | [40] 2022; [41] 2019; [42] 2015 |
No | Yes | Yes | [12] 2023; [43] 2014; [44] 2010; [45] 2006 |
Yes | Yes | Yes | This Work |
Method/Algorithm | Objective | Citation |
---|---|---|
EPA 1 AP-42 emission factors | Estimate emissions from various source categories, including point sources (e.g., industrial stacks) | [46] |
AP-42, Fifth Edition, Volume I, Chapter 7: Liquid Storage Tanks | Calculate volatile organic compound (VOC) and hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emissions from floating- and fixed-roof storage tanks | [46] |
EPA WATER9 | Estimate emissions from wastewater treatment plants | [47] |
EPA LandGEM | Calculate emissions from landfills, utilizing the methane generation rate and potential methane generation capacity parameters | [48] |
GRI-GLYCalc | Estimate emissions from glycol dehydration units | [49] |
API 2 AMINECalc | Estimate emissions from amine gas treatment plants | [50] |
Model Option/Setting | Setting |
---|---|
AERMOD Executable | Version 22112 |
Dispersion Options | Non-default regulatory option selected Fast all sources (FASTALL) Flat (FLAT) |
Calculation Type | Unitized (unit emission rate concept representing the µg/m3 impact per 1 g/s of emissions) (refer to Section 2.2.1) |
Output | Concentration, total deposition, dry deposition, and wet deposition |
Dispersion Coefficient | Rural |
Pollutants | Benzene, formaldehyde, toluene, and benzo(a)pyrene |
Averaging Periods | 1 hour and annual |
Source Types | Point |
Receptors | Uniform Cartesian grid and discrete Cartesian receptors (sensitive receptors) |
Terrain | Terrain in Kuwait can be approximated as flat; however, terrain files were used for completeness in the model |
Meteorological Data Files | 2017 hourly meteorological data, contained in surface and profile files, for Kuwait’s three air quality zones were generated utilizing the WRF model |
Exposure Pathways |
---|
Direct inhalation of vapors and particles |
Incidental ingestion of soil |
Ingestion of drinking water from treated surface water sources |
Ingestion of homegrown produce 1,2 |
Air Quality Zone | Number of Modeled Facilities | Number of Emission Sources within Modeled Facilities |
---|---|---|
Inland | 4 | 21 |
Production | 7 | 21 |
Coastal | 10 | 47 |
Hazardous Air Pollutants |
---|
Benzene |
Formaldehyde |
Toluene |
Benzo(a)pyrene |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult | Resident Child |
---|---|---|
Receptor 1 | 4.79 × 10−11 | 9.63 × 10−12 |
Receptor 2 | 4.74 × 10−9 | 9.55 × 10−10 |
Receptor 3 | 1.02 × 10−8 | 2.05 × 10−9 |
Receptor 4 | 3.77 × 10−11 | 1.76 × 10−11 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult | Resident Child |
---|---|---|
Receptor 1 | 8.83 × 10−7 | 8.94 × 10−7 |
Receptor 2 | 9.30 × 10−5 | 9.86 × 10−5 |
Receptor 3 | 2.02 × 10−4 | 2.16 × 10−4 |
Receptor 4 | 3.45 × 10−8 | 8.93 × 10−8 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult/Child |
---|---|
Receptor 1 | 4.47 × 10−5 |
Receptor 2 | 2.21 × 10−4 |
Receptor 3 | 3.00 × 10−4 |
Receptor 4 | 8.61 × 10−10 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult | Resident Child |
---|---|---|
Receptor 1 | 3.11 × 10−11 | 6.26 × 10−12 |
Receptor 2 | 2.34 × 10−9 | 4.73 × 10−10 |
Receptor 3 | 1.20 × 10−8 | 2.41 × 10−9 |
Receptor 4 | 3.83 × 10−11 | 1.76 × 10−11 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult | Resident Child |
---|---|---|
Receptor 1 | 5.76 × 10−7 | 5.86 × 10−7 |
Receptor 2 | 4.45 × 10−5 | 4.64 × 10−5 |
Receptor 3 | 2.38 × 10−4 | 2.55 × 10−4 |
Receptor 4 | 3.39 × 10−8 | 8.85 × 10−8 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult/Child |
---|---|
Receptor 1 | 2.49 × 10−5 |
Receptor 2 | 2.71 × 10−4 |
Receptor 3 | 2.71 × 10−4 |
Receptor 4 | 8.78 × 10−10 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult | Resident Child |
---|---|---|
General Ahmadi Hospital | 6.12 × 10−6 | 2.31 × 10−6 |
Fatima Bint Asad High School for Girls | 7.56 × 10−6 | 2.87 × 10−6 |
Ahmadi Hospital | 1.09 × 10−5 | 4.33 × 10−6 |
Ahmadi Zoo | 7.92 × 10−6 | 3.04 × 10−6 |
Adan Hospital | 4.05 × 10−6 | 1.52 × 10−6 |
Hilton Kuwait Resort | 3.63 × 10−6 | 1.31 × 10−6 |
Mosque (North Ahmadi) | 5.79 × 10−6 | 2.23 × 10−6 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult | Resident Child |
---|---|---|
General Ahmadi Hospital | 9.67 × 10−3 | 1.56 × 10−2 |
Fatima Bint Asad High School for Girls | 1.19 × 10−2 | 1.93 × 10−2 |
Ahmadi Hospital | 1.26 × 10−2 | 2.43 × 10−2 |
Ahmadi Zoo | 1.13 × 10−2 | 1.92 × 10−2 |
Adan Hospital | 6.02 × 10−3 | 9.92 × 10−3 |
Hilton Kuwait Resort | 6.84 × 10−3 | 1.00 × 10−2 |
Mosque (North Ahmadi) | 7.76 × 10−3 | 1.36 × 10−2 |
Sensitive Receptor/Exposure Scenarios | Resident Adult/Child |
---|---|
General Ahmadi Hospital | 1.19 × 10−1 |
Fatima Bint Asad High School for Girls | 1.16 × 10−1 |
Ahmadi Hospital | 9.69 × 10−2 |
Ahmadi Zoo | 1.05 × 10−1 |
Adan Hospital | 6.81 × 10−2 |
Hilton Kuwait Resort | 9.65 × 10−2 |
Mosque (North Ahmadi) | 8.29 × 10−2 |
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Munshed, M.; Van Griensven Thé, J.; Fraser, R.; Matthews, B.; Ramadan, A. Extending Multi-Pathway Human Health Risk Assessment from Regional to Country-Wide—A Case Study on Kuwait. Atmosphere 2023, 14, 1247. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081247
Munshed M, Van Griensven Thé J, Fraser R, Matthews B, Ramadan A. Extending Multi-Pathway Human Health Risk Assessment from Regional to Country-Wide—A Case Study on Kuwait. Atmosphere. 2023; 14(8):1247. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081247
Chicago/Turabian StyleMunshed, Mohammad, Jesse Van Griensven Thé, Roydon Fraser, Bryan Matthews, and Ashraf Ramadan. 2023. "Extending Multi-Pathway Human Health Risk Assessment from Regional to Country-Wide—A Case Study on Kuwait" Atmosphere 14, no. 8: 1247. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081247
APA StyleMunshed, M., Van Griensven Thé, J., Fraser, R., Matthews, B., & Ramadan, A. (2023). Extending Multi-Pathway Human Health Risk Assessment from Regional to Country-Wide—A Case Study on Kuwait. Atmosphere, 14(8), 1247. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081247