Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Streamflow: A Case Study of the Jinsha River Basin, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
2.3. Wavelet Coherence and Correlation Analysis
2.4. Classification of ENSO and IOD Years
3. Results
3.1. Correlation between ENSO/IOD Events and Streamflow Anomalies
3.2. Impact of ENSO/IOD Events on Annual and Seasonal Streamflow
3.3. Temporal Patterns of Climate Driver Impacts
3.4. Spatial Patterns of Climate Driver Impacts
3.5. Impact of ENSO/IOD Events on Annual Extreme Streamflow Conditions
4. Discussion
4.1. Precipitation-Streamflow Relationship
4.2. Effects of Precipitation
4.2.1. Pure ENSO Events
4.2.2. Pure IOD Events
4.2.3. Combination of ENSO and IOD Events
4.2.4. Impact of ENSO and IOD Events on Extreme Precipitation
4.3. Suggestions for Water Resource Managers
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Positive IOD (pIOD) | Neutral | Negative IOD (nIOD) | |
---|---|---|---|
EI Niño | 1963, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015 (8) | 1965, 1969, 1977, 1983, 1987, 2002, 2009 (7) | Nil (0) |
Neutral | 1961, 2003, 2007, 2012 (4) | 1962, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1993, 1995, 2004, 2005, 2014 (17) | 1984, 1992, 1989, 1996, 2001, 2013 (6) |
La Niña | 1970, 2008, 2011 (3) | 1971, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1999, 2000 (6) | 1964, 1974, 1998, 2010, 2016 (5) |
Developing Years | Decaying Years | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Streamflow Characteristics Relative to Neutral Years | Suggestions | Streamflow Characteristics Relative to Neutral Years | Suggestion | |
EI | The peak streamflow value appeared one month earlier, and the streamflow in the middle JRB showed a decrease of more than 10%. | Reservoir managers should be cautious of early floods, and attention should be paid to potential drought in the middle JRB. | Annual streamflow increased by ~14%, and the peak streamflow increased by more than 25%. The middle and lower JRB showed a 15% increase in streamflow. | Much more attention should be given to the flood control capacity of the reservoir to fully exploit the advantages of the group of reservoirs. |
LA | The peak streamflow value appeared one month earlier, and the precipitation distribution was more uneven. The upper and middle JRB showed a more than 10% decrease in streamflow, whereas the lower part showed a more than 10% increase. | Reservoir managers should be cautious of early floods and water supply projects, e.g., the South-to-North Water Transfer West Route Project, may be affected in the future. | Annual streamflow showed a more than 14% increase, and the streamflow in summer showed an increase of ~20%. The peak streamflow showed a more than 15% increase, and streamflow in the lower JRB was 25% greater. | Reservoir managers should beware of the increased risk of flood disasters as well as other related disasters, including landslides. |
pIOD | Annual streamflow decreased by ~9%, and the streamflow in autumn showed a more than 10% decrease. The extreme streamflow decreased by ~20%, except for the upper JRB, and streamflow in the other sub-basins showed a more than 10% decrease. | Water resource managers should be cautious of the increased risk of drought disasters, as reservoir functions such as hydropower generation and water supply may be affected. Additionally, reservoir managers should take advanced measures such as reservoir recharge to ensure that the reservoir is always full. | The streamflow in summer showed a 15% increase, and the streamflow in the lower JRB showed a 10% increase. | Strategies to cope with floods in the lower JRB during summer should be carefully implemented. |
nIOD | Annual streamflow decreased by ~7%, and summer streamflow showed a more than 10% decrease. Additionally, the streamflow in the lower JRB showed a decrease of more than 20%. | The lower JRB may be affected by serious drought. Therefore, reservoir managers should recognize that reservoir functions such as hydropower generation, and water allocation may be affected. | Summer streamflow showed a 14% increase, and the extreme value of the streamflow increased by more than 20%. Additionally, streamflow in the lower JRB showed a more than 15%increase. | Similar to pIOD; however, the extent of the streamflow increase would be higher. |
EI/pIOD | Annual streamflow showed a more than 10% decrease, and summer and autumn streamflow showed a more than 10% decrease. Additionally, the streamflow in all the sub-basins decreased by 10%. | Similar to pIOD; however, the impact of this combination could be more severe than that of pIOD only. | Similar to neutral years. | / |
LA/pIOD | Annual streamflow showed a more than 10% decrease, and summer and autumn streamflow decreased by ~17%. Streamflow in the middle and lower JRB as well as the Yalong sub-basin decreased by more than 10%. | Severe drought may attack the JRB, resulting in a decrease in streamflow. This can bring new challenges concerning meeting all types of water needs, including irrigation as well as industrial and domestic uses. Reservoir managers can apply the optimal allocation of water resources. Additionally, reservoir operation can be used to deal with shortages. | Annual streamflow showed a more than 10% increase, and the extreme streamflow value showed a more than 20% increase. Additionally, the summer streamflow increased by 20%, and streamflow in the upper JRB showed a more than 50% increase. | In summer, severe flood events may occur, especially in the upper JRB. |
LA/nIOD | Annual streamflow increased by ~7%, and autumn streamflow showed a more than 10% increase. Additionally, streamflow in the upper JRB showed a more than 20% increase. | Attention should be given to flood control in autumn, especially in the upper JRB. | Summer streamflow increased by 10%, and streamflow in the upper JRB showed a more than 20%increase. | In summer, much more attention should be paid to flood control in the upper JRB |
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Jia, W.; Wu, Y.; Wang, S.; Chen, M.; Liu, X. Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Streamflow: A Case Study of the Jinsha River Basin, China. Water 2023, 15, 45. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010045
Jia W, Wu Y, Wang S, Chen M, Liu X. Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Streamflow: A Case Study of the Jinsha River Basin, China. Water. 2023; 15(1):45. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010045
Chicago/Turabian StyleJia, Wenhao, Yawen Wu, Sen Wang, Mufeng Chen, and Xia Liu. 2023. "Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Streamflow: A Case Study of the Jinsha River Basin, China" Water 15, no. 1: 45. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010045
APA StyleJia, W., Wu, Y., Wang, S., Chen, M., & Liu, X. (2023). Combined Impacts of ENSO and IOD on Streamflow: A Case Study of the Jinsha River Basin, China. Water, 15(1), 45. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15010045