Research on the Influencing Factors of Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on a Multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression Model: Evidence from China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Literature Review
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Research Methods
2.1.1. Comprehensive Evaluation Method
2.1.2. Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis
2.1.3. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression Model
2.2. Variable Selection
2.3. Data Sources
3. Spatial Correlation Analysis of UECC
3.1. Global Autocorrelation
3.2. Local Autocorrelation
4. Analysis of Influencing Factors
4.1. Determination of Influencing Factors
- Land endowment. Land resources are one of the living conditions of humankind and a fundamental element of urban development. In addition to maintaining the sustainable development of social, economy, and humankind, the land also produces biological resources for survival and maintains the normal operation of its functions [57]. However, land resources are not renewable. A massive contradiction between humans and land has produced a series of problems affecting ecological security; thus, the impact of land endowment on UECC cannot be ignored. This paper selects the administrative land area to measure land endowment;
- Water supply. Water is essential to natural resources necessary for human production, life, and the ecological environment and it is a fundamental resource and a strategic economic resource that supports the economy and society to be sustainable. Good hydrological conditions will create an environment conducive to vegetation growth [58], then increasing UECC. However, the lack of local water resources has gradually turned to be a major factor restricting the region’s sustainable development. As a consequence, the total amount of water resources per capita is selected to represent the level of water supply;
- Industrial structure. The material inputs required for production in different industries are different [59], and the intensity of the resource consumption of an economy is influenced by industrial composition. The level of industrial advancement determines the size of the environmental cost and the scale of pollution emissions to be paid for economic growth; only the realization of the transformation and the upgrade of the industrial structure to an advanced structure can effectively curb the adverse effects of economic growth and achieve the harmonious result between the economy and environment. For this reason, the industrial advancement index, which is, the ratio of the tertiary industry and the secondary sector, can measure the industrial structure;
- Economic development. When it comes to the advancement of the economy and society, human beings are transforming and using natural resources at an unprecedented speed and scale. While gaining much wealth, they also exert tremendous pressure on the ecosystem. As pressure increases, UECC will correspondingly weaken. When the pressure reaches the maximum, the carrying capacity will decrease by 30% [17]. Economic density can reflect the efficiency of economic activities and the intensity of land use to a certain extent. The higher the economic density in a region is, the more conducive the area is to development. The study of economic density is essential to encourage the establishment of a high-quality regional economy. Consequently, economic density is chosen to measure economic development;
- Urbanization level. The level of urbanization and the ecological security system is inextricably linked. With rapid urbanization and rapid economic growth, there will be a shortage of resources and insufficient ability to withstand the pressure of ecosystems, which will therefore cause a series of ecological problems [60]. New-type urbanization emphasizes the quality connotation of urbanization, and resources and the environment are also increasingly valued. The urbanization rate can reflect the process and degree of population agglomeration in cities and can also reflect the comprehensive process of the transformation of a rural society into a modern city. Accordingly, this article uses the urbanization rate to measure the level of urbanization;
- Technological innovation. Technological innovation is not only the fundamental driving force for industrial upgrading and structural optimization but also can solve the problem of excessive consumption of resources and improve the efficiency of resource use. Green technology can improve the green performance of the external environment of the enterprise and promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the region [61], finally enabling the realization of the linkage of economic, social, and natural ecological system entities. The internal expenditure of research and experimental development (R&D) funds is the actual expenditure of enterprises and institutions for internal R&D activities. It includes both fundamental research spending and applied research and practical development expenditures. Overall, the internal expenditures of R&D funds are used to assess the innovation level;
- Foreign capital utilization. Foreign capital provides power and support for regional development from outside. Although it makes a particular contribution to economic growth, it may also cause environmental pollution [62]. The actual utilization of foreign investment/gross domestic product can be used to measure the degree of dependence of a country or region’s economy on the international market. It can also reflect a certain extent a country’s economic development level and participation in the global financial division of labor. Compared with directly measuring the level of foreign capital utilization by the amount of foreign investment utilized, measuring this utilization by the actual use of foreign investment/gross domestic product can observe the impact of foreign investment on regional economic development more comprehensively. This article chooses to use the actual use of foreign investment/gross domestic product to measure the level of foreign investment utilization;
- Environmental governance. Improving a government’s environmental governance capacity can alleviate the trend of ecological environment damage [63] and increase UECC to some extent. The expenditure structure of energy conservation and environmental protection roughly includes ecological protection, energy conservation, utilization, and natural ecological protection. These categories can reflect the amount of government energy conservation and environmental protection expenditures, work priorities, and work implementation status, which is all critical for ensuring the coordinated development of environmental protection and economic society. Energy conservation and environmental protection expenditures are employed in the assessment of measure environmental governance.
4.2. Model Comparison
4.3. Scale Analysis
4.4. Spatial Distribution of Driving Factors
4.4.1. Administrative Land Area
4.4.2. Total Water Resources per Capita
4.4.3. Industrial Advancement Index
4.4.4. Economic Density
4.4.5. Urbanization Rate
4.4.6. Internal R&D Expenditure
4.4.7. FDI/GDP
4.4.8. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Expenditure
5. Conclusions and Suggestions
5.1. Conclusions
- From a regional perspective, the China’s UECC index ranges from 0.0233 to 0.2811 in 2019, which is still low. From 2010 to 2019, there was no noticeable difference in UECC in any region except Northeast China. The local Moran’s I index showed that hot-hot agglomeration is primarily found in the Yangtze River Delta cities and the Pearl River Delta cities, with a relatively stable spatial distribution. Low-low agglomeration is primarily distributed in Linfen, Yuncheng, Sanmenxia, and Shangluo in the Central Plains and has trend of spatial expansion to surrounding cities;
- UECC’s Moran’s I index ranges from 0.0498 to 0.1390, showed a significant positive spatial correlation with a trend of fluctuation. The regression coefficients of the eight variables were generally substantial in the MGWR regression results, and the effects of each driving factor were different to some extent in spatial distribution, reflecting that other variable had different levels of spatial heterogeneity. Among them, land endowment and environmental governance are close to global scale variables, their bandwidths are 227 and 232. Economic development, water resource supply, foreign investment, urbanization level, technological innovation, and industrial structure are micro variables with bandwidths of 84, 77, 43, 104, 43, 43;
- In terms of the mean value of coefficients, all influencing factors had a significant beneficial effect on UECC. From the perspective of the mean value of the coefficient, the gradation of influence intensity is as follows: economic development > technology innovation > industrial structure > urbanization level > land endowment > environmental governance > water supply > utilization of foreign capital. Water resource supply, industrial structure, and environmental governance show a step-like distribution from east to west. In contrast, land endowment and economic development show a step-like distribution from north to south. Foreign capital utilization, urbanization level and technological innovation show a tendency to gather in a specific region. The influence of foreign capital utilization and technological innovation is evident in southeastern coastal areas. The urbanization level has a noticeable impact on UECC, mainly in the Yangtze River Delta;
- Different influencing factors play different roles in each region. According to the analysis of influencing factors, local governments can develop the policy suitable for local conditions, this move can reduce the error cost of developing a unified policy. Nevertheless, the actual situation may hinder the implementation of the policy. It may take years to improve the comprehensive UECC, but with the application of the policy, environmental performance would be better.
5.2. Suggestions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Target Layer | Rule Layer | Factor Layer | Index Layer |
---|---|---|---|
Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity | ecological resilience | Climatic conditions | Annual precipitation |
Annual average temperature | |||
Sunshine hours | |||
Hydrological conditions | Surface water resources Groundwater resources | ||
Land conditions | Green area per capita | ||
Land productivity | |||
Ecological Support Capacity | Environmental protection | Comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste | |
Harmless disposal rate of household garbage Green coverage rate in urban built-up areas Municipal sewage treatment rate | |||
Social progress | Doctors per 10,000 people | ||
The number of students in colleges and universities per 10,000 persons City road area at the end of the year Internet users per 10,000 persons The total number of books in public libraries per 10,000 people Total postal services | |||
Policy Support | Urban maintenance and construction fund expenditure | ||
Education expenditure as a proportion of fiscal expenditure | |||
Ecological Pressure | Environmental disruption | Industrial sulfur dioxide emissions Industrial wastewater discharged Industrial smoke (dust) emissions | |
Population pressure | The population density | ||
Natural population growth rate | |||
Number of employees in the secondary industry | |||
Number of registered unemployed persons in urban areas at the end of the year |
Influencing Factors | Indicator Name | Unit |
---|---|---|
Land endowment X1 | Administrative land area | Km2 |
Water supply X2 | Per capita water resources | Person/m3 |
Industrial structure X3 | Industry Advanced Index | |
Economic development X4 | Economic density | Yuan/km2 |
Urbanization level X5 | Urbanization rate | % |
Technological innovation X6 | R&D internal expenditure | Ten thousand yuan |
Foreign capital utilization X7 | FDI/GDP | |
Environmental governance X8 | Energy saving and environmental protection expenditure | 100 million yuan |
Model Indexes | MGWR | GWR |
---|---|---|
Goodness of fit R2 | 0.929 | 0.927 |
Adjust R2 | 0.906 | 0.898 |
AICc | 247.457 | 288.108 |
Residual sum of squares | 20.210 | 20.984 |
Variable | MGWR | GWR |
---|---|---|
Administrative area | 227 | 65 |
Per capita water resource | 77 | 65 |
Industry Advanced Index | 43 | 65 |
Economic density | 84 | 65 |
Urbanization rate | 104 | 65 |
R&D internal expenditure | 43 | 65 |
FDI/GDP | 43 | 65 |
Energy saving and environmental protection expenditures | 232 | 65 |
Variable | Definition | Mean | Standard Deviation | Min | Median | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
tdbf | Land endowment | 0.197 | 0.102 | −0.012 | 0.205 | 0.331 |
szygj | Water supply | 0.126 | 0.130 | −0.078 | 0.106 | 0.405 |
cyjg | Industrial structure | 0.348 | 0.301 | −0.043 | 0.256 | 1.124 |
jjfz | Economic development | 0.633 | 0.381 | 0.084 | 0.782 | 1.124 |
czhsp | Urbanization level | 0.270 | 0.085 | 0.138 | 0.273 | 0.435 |
jscx | Technological innovation | 0.528 | 0.395 | −0.742 | 0.484 | 1.403 |
wzly | Foreign capital utilization | 0.036 | 0.101 | −0.437 | 0.011 | 0.294 |
hjzl | Environmental governance | 0.162 | 0.044 | 0.109 | 0.154 | 0.228 |
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Liu, K.; Xie, X.; Zhou, Q. Research on the Influencing Factors of Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on a Multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression Model: Evidence from China. Land 2021, 10, 1313. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10121313
Liu K, Xie X, Zhou Q. Research on the Influencing Factors of Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on a Multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression Model: Evidence from China. Land. 2021; 10(12):1313. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10121313
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Ke, Xinyue Xie, and Qian Zhou. 2021. "Research on the Influencing Factors of Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on a Multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression Model: Evidence from China" Land 10, no. 12: 1313. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10121313
APA StyleLiu, K., Xie, X., & Zhou, Q. (2021). Research on the Influencing Factors of Urban Ecological Carrying Capacity Based on a Multiscale Geographic Weighted Regression Model: Evidence from China. Land, 10(12), 1313. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10121313