1. Introduction
Over the past four decades, China’s agriculture productivity has improved significantly [
1], with a real growth rate of 6.1% in the Gross Value of Agricultural Output (GVAO) per year throughout 1978–2015 [
2]. With the economic development of urban and rural areas, China’s land use has also undergone a transition. Agricultural arable land from land fragmentation to large-scale management is regarded as an essential transition path. Since the late 1980s, the Chinese Government began consciously encouraging land consolidation and promoting land transfer between rural households, as many rural labourers began to enter the cities for employment [
3,
4,
5]. With the government’s firm policy of support, the land rental market has experienced rapid development. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the total rental area of arable land in China was 0.6 million hectares in 1994 and exceeded 35.9 million hectares in 2018, with an average increase of 18.6%. According to the third national agricultural census results, the proportion of large-scale farming (more than 3.33 hectares in China’s southern provinces and more than 6.67 hectares in its northern provinces) across the total arable land area reached 28.6% in 2016.
In recent years, China’s land transfer rate has slowed [
6]. One of the main reasons for this is severe land fragmentation (LF). LF is a typical characteristic of China’s traditional agriculture. The status quo of LF in China can be traced back to the very beginning of rural reform in the late 1970s when the Household Responsibility System (HRS) had just been introduced. The HRS reallocated collective agricultural land to individual rural households equally, giving them relative autonomy over land-use decisions and crop selection. Due to differences in fertility and topography, the arable land was divided into different grades, and each household was assigned several plots of different land quality [
7,
8]. In some areas, farmers obtained as many as dozens of plots. Although this land allocation method guaranteed fairness and justice among rural households, it was extremely inconvenient in terms of agricultural production.
Generally speaking, LF affects farmers’ production decisions and, thus, their farm performance. Most scholars and policymakers believe LF decreases farm performance due to an inability to achieve an economy of scale. Additionally, LF simultaneously increases the area taken up by ridges, ditches, and roads between plots, wasting arable land resources. As the plots are scattered, the irrigation and mechanical efficiency of the cultivated land is significantly reduced [
9,
10]. When farmers want to operate on a large scale, large numbers of plots need to be transferred, in turn increasing land transaction costs [
11]. Further, some people propose that land fragmentation increases the input cost of fertilisers and pesticides [
12,
13], reducing the rural labour emigration [
14] while also reducing yields and household income [
15,
16,
17,
18]. Due to a series of negative effects induced by LF, many scholars believe that land transfer [
19] and consolidation [
20] should be accelerated to promote large-scale land production.
Some scholars believe that LF has a positive impact on farm performance. Those who support this view believe farmers can adjust their planting structure according to the characteristics of different plots to alleviate the lack of seasonal supply of rural labour, especially in traditional agriculture, which can profit from intensive cultivation [
21,
22]. According to different plots, LF allows farmers to allocate production factors to increase land productivity and food diversification, acceptability, accessibility, and sovereignty at the local level [
23,
24]. At the same time, a variety of crops can be planted to reduce market risks and farmers’ exposure to weather variability [
25,
26]. LF can also speed up the transfer of rural labour out of agriculture [
16].
Even if the same indicators are selected, research findings differ across countries. For example, Tan et al. [
27] adopted China’s farm household survey data and found that the number of plots had a positive impact on technical efficiency. In contrast, Rahman and Rahman [
17] used the same indicators and methods on farmers’ survey data in Bangladesh and found that LF decreased technical efficiency. The research mentioned above focused primarily on a single farm performance indicator, and few scholars have systematically analysed multiple indexes of LF on farm performance. Only Latruffe and Piet [
28] used data from Brittany, France, to analyse the impact of LF on 15 farm performance indicators. Comparatively, China has more people, less land per capita than France, and land fragmentation has become more serious. Several studies have investigated the impact of LF on agriculture production in China, including its effect on technical efficiency [
27], product costs [
29], and returns relative to scale [
30,
31]. However, these studies have two main deficiencies: (1) the study sites were concentrated in one area, and (2) the sample sizes were small. Few studies have comprehensively examined the relationship between LF and multiple farm performance indicators in China.
This paper used crop-level data from ten provinces in China to determine the relationship between LF and multiple production indicators to identify the advantages and/or disadvantages of LF on farm performance. To achieve this goal, we selected four LF indicators and six farm performance indicators, giving a total of 24 regression models, using the unique large-scale survey data in China. With this, we empirically analysed the relationship between LF and farm performance. The findings of the current research address a gap in the existing literature and have essential reference significance for land policy recommendations.
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows.
Section 2 provides a literature review.
Section 3 outlines the methods used in the study, including data collection, indicator selection, model specification, and variable selection.
Section 4 reports the empirical results and discusses the data.
Section 5 presented the robustness test. Finally,
Section 6 presents the study’s conclusions and policy implications.
3. Methodology
3.1. Data
The data used in this study were collected from a rural household survey organised by the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2020. The total sample size of the survey was 3833 farmer households from ten major agricultural production provinces in China. The surveying involved stratified random sampling in selecting the sample provinces, counties, villages, and rural households to be used in the study. First, ten provinces, including Heilongjiang province in the northeast, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Guangdong in the east, Anhui and Henan in the central region, and Guizhou, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Ningxia in the west, were selected based on the level of provincial economic development. Second, within each province, the survey categorised all counties into five groups (i.e., high, relatively high, middle, relatively low, and low) according to their per capita GDP, and then randomly selected one county from each group. Next, the survey randomly selected three towns from each county and two villages from each town. Finally, 12–14 rural households in each village were randomly selected. Of the total 3833 sampled households, 64% were engaged in agricultural production. Of the households engaged in agricultural production, 30.90% and 41.67% planted one and two kinds of crops, respectively. The distribution structure of the survey area is shown in
Figure 1.
The surveys collected information at the village, household, and crop levels. At the household level, the data contain the following information: (1) detailed information about household agricultural production, including the output and input of each crop; (2) plot-level information, including the number of plots, the area of the largest three plots, and the average distance of the largest three plots from the household residence; (3) household characteristics, such as family size, the structure of the family labour force, and family members’ age and education level. The survey data contains general information on the village population and geographical information about land at the village level.
In China, it is common for farmers to produce various crops within a year for two main reasons; the first is diversified planting. Specifically, to avoid natural and market risks, farmers may plant multiple crops simultaneously. The second is, planting two or three seasons worth of crops in a year. This situation is more common in North and South China, compared to Western and Northeastern region. For example, corn is planted after wheat is harvested in North China, and rapeseed is planted after the rice is harvested in the country’s southern provinces. In the study sample, 69% of farmers planted more than one crop in one year. Therefore, we selected crop-level data for empirical analysis. In the survey, we asked for information on common crops with a total area of more than 0.5 mu per household. These mainly included wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, rapeseed and silage maize.
3.2. Measuring Farm Performance and Land Fragmentation
3.2.1. Farm Performance
A series of indicators were selected to reflect farm performance, and these were divided into three categories. The first category is cost-benefits for farmers, and two indicators were included: (1) materials cost usage (i.e., the total of material costs per mu of pesticides, fertilisers, seeds, and irrigation for each crop); and (2) labour cost usage (i.e., the total of the labour costs and the opportunity cost of their own labour—here, the average price of hired labour in the village was used to estimate the opportunity cost of their own labour).
The second category is the use of mechanisation by farmers, in which two indicators were used: (1) the total input of mechanised services purchased in different production stages of each crop, including ploughing, sowing, spraying, fertilising, irrigation, harvesting, and other production processes; and (2) the efficiency of mechanical ploughing for each crop. During the survey, if the farmer used mechanical ploughing, we asked farmers to answer the scale of ploughed land per hour for different crops, and we used this indicator to measure the efficiency of ploughed land.
The third category is productivity, in which two indicators of yield and technical efficiency were used. Yield constitutes the average output per mu of different crops (as answered by the farmers) and technical efficiency. Technical efficiency constitutes the effectiveness with which a given set of inputs were used to produce an output. In general, technical efficiency can be calculated in two ways: (1) using the parametric stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach, or (2) using non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA). Based on the research by Ciaian et al. [
34] and Belotti et al. [
46], the SFA approach was adopted for the current study. The model is described in detail in
Section 3.3.
3.2.2. Land Fragmentation
From
Table 1, the current research indictors of LF are the Simpson’s Index [
18,
22,
29], Januszewski Index [
37,
40], number of plots [
12,
28,
41], average plot size [
37,
44], and average distance from plot to home [
10,
27,
42] (among others). The Simpson and Januszewski indexes are considered ideal indicators because they simultaneously reflect the number of plots, plot size, and total scale, which can be defined as SI =
and JI =
, where
ai is the size of the plot
i. At the same time, because the calculation of the abovementioned two indexes requires the size of each piece of land, it is difficult to obtain data from some countries where the land is fragmented. Most scholars use multiple indicators to measure LF, including the number of plots, the average plot size, and the average distance from the plot to home (
Table 1). We investigated the number of plots on each crop, the sown area of each crop, the area of the largest three plots, and the average distance of the largest three plots to home on a farmer’s planting of more than 0.5 mu of cereals crops. We selected three indicators to represent LF at the crop level from different farmers. The number of plots constitutes the first LF indicator used at the crop level; the second indicator is the proportion of the area of the largest three plots to the total area; the third indicator is the average distance from the largest three plots to farmers’ homes, and the fourth indicator is the average plot size. The largest three pieces of land can be used to measure the concentration of farmers’ farmland. In the absence of the size and distance of each piece, we believe that the proportion of the largest three pieces of land to the total area and the average distance from the largest three pieces of land can also be used to measure the fragmentation of farmers’ land.
3.3. Empirical Specification
The model specification is composed of two main parts. The first part calculates the indicators of farm performance, and the second calculates the impact of LF on farm performance. The survey of farmers directly supplied some indicators of farm performance—for example, yields and ploughing efficiency—while some indicators were obtained through simple calculations—for example, the material cost is the sum of chemical fertilisers, pesticides and seed costs. After obtaining the above indicators, the OLS model was used to measure the impact of LF on a series of indicators representing farm performance. We used four LF indicators and six indicators of farm performance, giving 24 regression models. The relevant model is detailed below.
Based on findings from previous studies [
22,
28], we used the OLS model to estimate a series of farm performance indicators in addition to technical efficiency (see model [
1]).
Yhik represents the
k-th farm performance indicator of the
h-th farmer, planting the
i-th crop (where
i represents the six crops of wheat, corn, rice, soybean, rapeseed, and silage corn), and
LFhif constitutes the key variable in the model, which represented the
f-th LF index of the
h-th farmer planting the
i-th crop. Further,
Chi represents the control variables at the crop level, such as disaster damage, irrigation conditions. and sown area;
Fh represents the control variables at the household level, which represents the family size and whether there were non-agricultural workers in the
h-th farmer’s household; and
Hh represents the control variables at the household-head level, including the gender of the household head, education level, and whether he or she was a village cadre (‘Village cadre’ mainly refers to the management personnel in the village, which mainly includes the village leader, village director, and accountant).
Ii and
Dd denote crop and regional control variables (including the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions of China), respectively. Finally,
εhi represents the error term.
(2) Technical efficiency estimation model
A stochastic production frontier (SFA) model was used to estimate the effect of LF on technical efficiency. Many researchers have often incorporated exogenous effects using a two-step approach. The first step is to use the production function to estimate technical inefficiency, and the second is to use the regression method to estimate the impact of some factors on technical inefficiency. As pointed out by Wang and Schmidt [
46] and Belotti et al. [
47], this approach leads to severely biased results; thus, we focused only on model extensions based on simultaneous estimation. The model settings are shown in Formulas (2)–(4):
In the formulas outlined above, subscript h represents the household, subscript i represents different crops, and subscript j represents different input variables. Therefore, ln Yhi in Equation (2) is the logarithm of yield on crop i of farmer h, including wheat rice, maise, soybean, rapeseed and silage maise. Xhij represents the material costs (e.g., fertilisers, seeds, and irrigation), labour costs, mechanical service costs, and land costs for the ith crop of farmer h. The term uhi specified in Equation (2) is the log difference between the maximum and actual output; and uhi is a realisation from an exponential distribution variable; zi is a vector of the exogenous variables; and is the vector of unknown parameters to be estimated (the so-called inefficiency effects). In model (4), the zhi represents different LF indicators. STATA16 was used to estimate the models given above.
Notably, the abovementioned models may have endogenous problems—for example, the impact of LF on yield. Farmers with severe LF may have low agricultural production technology and management capabilities, leading to biased estimation results. Generally speaking, instrumental variables are used to solve the problem. For example, Wang et al. [
10] used geographic dummy variables as instrumental variables for LF to study the impact of LF on income. The current study selected six indicators to measure farm performance. It was difficult in the current study to address the endogeneity of each indicator, as this cannot easily be done within the scope of a single study. Research by Latruffe et al. [
28] and Ciaian et al. [
34] predominantly used the OLS method to explore the correlation between China’s LF and farm performance from multiple dimensions. Although causality cannot be inferred in the current study, we believe our findings have important reference significance for academic research and policymaking.
3.4. Description of Variables
Table 2 is a descriptive statistical analysis of all variables, predominantly reporting the mean, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum values. The table shows that the average number of plots at the crop level was 3.6, and the number of plots varied greatly, with a maximum value of 21 and a minimum value of 1. The average proportion of the largest three plots of land to the total sown area was 0.85, which is relatively concentrated. The largest three land plots were 0.95 km away from the farmers’ homes, which was generally close to home and ranged between 0 and 9 km. Those farmers land that was 0 km from the household were mainly farming arable land next to their yard. The average plot size was 3.87 mu. In the following model, the four indicators representing LF are expressed by LF1, LF2, LF3 and LF4, respectively.
In terms of the farm performance indicators, the average material cost input of chemical fertilisers, seeds, pesticides, and irrigation was found to be 277.16 yuan per mu. The average yield of six crops was 417 kg per mu. Labour input costs mainly included the sum of farmers’ labour opportunity costs and employment labour costs, with an average of 259.59 yuan per mu. The average purchase of mechanised services for the whole crop growth process was found to be 97.67 yuan per mu, including tilling land, fertilisation, sowing, harvesting, and other links. This index fluctuated greatly, and the minimum value of 0 indicates that manual or animal labour was used during crop production. The efficiency of mechanised ploughing was 3.27 mu per hour, which varied greatly, with the ploughed area ranging from 0.2 mu to 17.3 mu per hour. We defined the total income minus the material cost input as the profitability indicator, and the average profitability of the crop was found to be 476.85 yuan per mu.
Various control variables were chosen based on the household decision-making model, and findings from previous studies were used in all 18 regressions. The average resident population per household was 3.28, the average sowing area per household was 18.43 mu, 66% of the crops were not affected by natural disasters, and 53% of the farmers did not take out agricultural insurance. Household heads were predominantly male, and their education level was mainly at the primary and junior high school level, accounting for 79% of the total. Village cadres were 18% of household heads, and only 5% of the people were engaged in non-agricultural work. In the sample, the percentages of wheat, rice, corn, soybean, rapeseed, and silage corn were 23%, 19%, 47%, 5%, 3%, and 4%, respectively.
A specific correlation between farm size and productivity was found. Most studies have concluded there is an inverse relationship between farm size and agriculture productivity [
48,
49,
50], even though several scholars have reported a U-shaped relationship [
51]. Under this assumption, if there is a correlation between land fragmentation and farm size, a confounding effect in which farmers are allocating inputs due to farm size rather than LF can be considered.
Figure 2 shows the data depicts a positive correlation between farm size and LF. Therefore, it was necessary to control the variable of farm size in the regression model, and this estimated result was considered together with the LF variable.
In the literature, many studies have reported measurement errors on farm size based on the use of self-reported data [
52,
53]. However, this is not the case in China, since household farms hold better knowledge of the land areas in operation. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China began conducting a large-scale land titling pilot in 2009. According to the investigation, code of practice for the right to rural contractual management (which the government developed), farmland details, including location, area, and owner of use rights, are being investigated in this pilot with the help of GPS/GNSS and drones. The results of the land titling pilot will officially be announced in the village for several days, and the farmers must confirm the outcomes. Then, the government will grant land certificates to the farmers. By the end of 2020, approximately 96% of the land in China was contractual. Therefore, we believe that the sample of farmers in the current study self-reported the details of their farmland with few errors. While collecting the data from the farmers in the sample, their land certificates and land rental contracts were also inspected.
6. Conclusions
Based on the unique crop-level survey data from ten provinces in China, the current study investigated the correlation between four indicators representing land fragmentation (LF) and six indicators representing farm performance. The OLS model was used to empirically analyse the relationship between LF and farm performance. To the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the relationship between LF and multiple production indicators and the first to comprehensively compare and analyse the “good” and “bad” effects of LF on farm performance. The results revealed that while controlling for other variables, LF increased the input of farmers’ material cost and increased the cost of labour input. Due to the fragmented land in China, it is difficult for farmers to implement large-scale production. Some new equipment and new technologies that save labour and material costs are also challenging to implement in this context. For example, drone spraying can save pesticides and labour and improve insecticidal efficiency. However, the large-scale production of one crop is difficult to implement in areas in China where the land is severely fragmented. In terms of mechanisation, the fragmentation of land was found to reduce the purchase of machinery services by farmers. Accordingly, the larger the scale of the land, the easier it is for farmers to purchase supporting mechanical services from the market. For small-scale land, it was found that farmers tended to use their own machinery or their own labour for agricultural production. Additionally, it was identified that the more severe the LF, the lower the efficiency of mechanical ploughing. It was also found that LF did not affect crop yields in terms of productivity but had a positive effect on technical efficiency, although these results were not sufficiently robust.
The current study found that LF correlated differently with farm performance and, overall, the adverse effects dominated. These results confirm that incentives to encourage land-leasing and consolidation are justified to improve farm performance from a policy perspective. Simultaneously, in areas with severe LF, the development of small agricultural machinery should be encouraged to meet the needs of small or impoverished farmers. As China’s economy develops, LF to large-scale production will be the trend dominating land-use transitions. However, integrating land should be undertaken cautiously. Large-scale production was negatively correlated with some farm performance, such as technical efficiency. Therefore, increasing the scale of land should improve farmers’ management level and prevent the reduction of technical efficiency.