3.1. Statistical Analysis of Dataset
The statistical set or population is represented by school buildings in FBiH, and the collected DEA documents represent the basic statistical sample for collecting data (dataset) on the characteristics of the statistical set or population.
In the statistical analysis, the following symbols were used: (n) is the number of units, (xmin) minimum value, (xmax) maximum value, (Rx) range of values, (X) average value, (Me) median, (σx) standard deviation, and (V) coefficient of variation.
The task of descriptive statistics is to describe, organize, and summarize research results in order to be clearer, more understandable and more suitable for interpretation and further analysis. The coefficient of variation (
V) is a relative measure of dispersion. Values of up to 10% represent very weak variability, from 10% to 30% weak, from 30% to 50% moderate, 50% to 70% strong and over 70% very strong (indicating that the distribution is not uniform). A smaller measure of dispersion means a higher representativeness of the mean and vice versa [
40].
Below are the results of statistical analysis of the dataset (parameters or variables) from a sample presented in summary tables and graphs.
3.2. Analysis General and Geometric Characteristics of School Buildings
The increase in availability of large volumes of data on building energy performance has allowed the development of top-down methodologies for the analysis of building energy performance. These methodologies use statistical techniques to predict and evaluate energy performance based on existing datasets of multiple buildings [
11].
One of the parameters for estimating the energy needs for heating and cooling is the number of degree days (DD). It is assumed that the energy needs for a building are proportional to the difference between the basic temperature and the mean temperature of outdoor air [
41]. Of the general parameters related to the location and which represents the climatic conditions and the duration of the heating season, the number of heating degree days (HDD) was used. The parameter that characterizes the year and period of construction is the age of the building. Geometric parameters characterize the size and shape of the building.
The Regulation on technical requirements for thermal insulation of buildings and rational use of energy defines a variable for estimating the compactness of the shape factor marked with
fo, which represents the ratio of the thermal envelope area (
A) and the heated volume (
Ve) and is called the shape factor [
31]. According to EN 15217, the building shape factor (
f) defines the ratio of the thermal envelope area (
A) and the useful surface area (
Ak) and the compactness factor (
c) defines the ratio of the thermal envelope area (
A) and the heated volume (
Ve). In the research into the significance of the shape factor of buildings, it is stated that the building shape factor (
f) is one of the parameters that has an impact on the height of the value of the energy indicator [
42].
The results of the statistical analysis of general and geometric characteristics of school buildings in FBiH from the sample are shown in
Table 3 and
Table 4.
In relation to the number of heating degree days (HDD) on
Figure 3, two parts can be seen. The first smaller part refers to 47 buildings located in the region of the south (RS), and the second part to 138 buildings located in the region of the north (RN). Compared to the construction period, 50% of school buildings from the sample were built in the period from 1960 to 1979, and from the period between 1945 and 1988 there are 162 schools, or 87.6% of the sample.
A proportion of 74.2% of schools in the sample have a useful surface area (Ak) in the range of 1500.00 to 3000.00 m2, the average value is 2332.00 m2. The average value of the building shape factor (fo) is 0.55 and in the range from 0.40 to 0.60 there are 128 schools, or 69.2% of the sample.
3.3. Envelope Characteristics Analysis of School Buildings
Heat losses through the building envelope occur due to the temperature difference between the warm air in the room and the cold outside air in the direction of the lower temperature. Transfer of heat through a structure depends on the installed materials, their thermal conductivity and the thickness of their layers. Data on the thermal permeability of the building envelope are necessary to quantify losses through it. U value of the building envelope plays a key role in assessing the thermal performance of the structure [
43]. Heat loss cannot be stopped; however, it can be reduced by improving the thermal insulation of the building’s outer envelope.
Of all the parameters, the most important indicator used to describe the thermal properties of buildings, and thereby the overall energy efficiency of a building, is the heat transfer or thermal transmittance coefficient (U value) [
44]. The building form is one of the most important parameters with respect to total heat loss of the whole building and the heat transfer coefficient (U value) determines the heat loss through unit area of opaque or transparent components of the building envelope [
45].
In this research, the elements of the building envelope were classified into 4 categories, namely walls, floors, ceilings, and transparent (nontransparent) parts of facade (windows, doors, etc.). The average values of the areas of the building elements of the envelope and the average values of the U value are shown in
Table 5. The results of the statistical analysis are shown in
Table 6.
Looking at the overall sample (
Figure 4), the surfaces of external walls and ceilings each represent 30% of the total envelope area, followed by the floor area with 27% and finally the opening area with 13%. The average envelope area is 4707.00 m
2. In the range of the envelope area from 2000.00 to 6000.00 m
2, there are 136 schools or 73.5%, and in the range from 3440.00 to 5706.00 m
2 there is 50% of the envelope area from the sample. The average U value for the total envelope is 1.87 W/m
2 K, and in the range of values from 1.00 to 2.50 W/m
2 K there are 154 schools or 83.2%, and the range of 1.44 to 2.26 W/m
2 K is found in 50% of the schools in the sample. The U value for the envelope area have a weak dispersion (coefficient of variation is up to 30%).
The average U value for the walls is 1.48 W/m2 K, and in the range of values from 1.00 to 2.00 W/m2 K there are 139 schools or 75.1%, and in the range of 1.20 up to 1.77 W/m2 K there are 50% of the schools in the sample. The U values for floors have a strong dispersion (coefficient of variation is over 50%), the average U value is 1.95 W/m2 K, and in the range of 0.98 to 2.67 W/m2 K there are 50% of schools from the sample. The U values for the ceilings also have a strong dispersion, the average U value is 1.82 W/m2 K, and in the range of 1.02 to 2.53 W/m2 K there are 50% of the schools in the sample. Analyzing the U values for windows, most schools have an average U value in the range from 3.00 to 3.50 W/m2 K, in the range from 2.00 to 4.00 W/m2 K there are 153 schools or 82.7%, and in the range of 2.38 to 3.38 W/m2 K there are 50% of the schools in the sample. The average U value of the windows is 2.90 W/m2 K.
Analyzing the change in U values by construction periods, the influence of the change in wall thickness can be noticed. Buildings built before 1945 have massive exterior walls made of solid brick 48 cm thick or of natural stone and plastered on both sides. After that period, there was a change in construction technologies and the introduction of reinforced concrete so that the walls became thinner and thinner, which led to an increase in the U values for the walls. It was not until the 1970s and the entry into force of the regulations on minimum thermal insulation that walls with layers of thermal insulation began to be built, which had the effect of reducing the U values for the walls.
The impact of changes and improvements in construction technology and quality of external windows can be seen in the improvement of the U values. Until the 1970s, exterior windows were mostly made of wooden frames, double, with joined wings and single glass. With the introduction of double glazing or thermal glass and since the 1980s part of the PVC and aluminum frames, the thermal properties have been improved and the U value for the windows has been reduced.
The average U value of the envelope in the north region is 1.87 W/m2 K, and in the south region 1.88 W/m2 K. Therefore, it can be concluded that the analyzed buildings from the point of view of thermal characteristics of the envelope have similar characteristics regardless of the location and climatic regions in the FBiH.
The quality of thermal insulation of the building envelope is determined by the U value. According to the “Regulation on technical requirements for thermal insulation of buildings and rational use of energy”, the allowable U of building elements of the envelope are defined in relation to the average monthly temperature (Θ
e,m) of the coldest month of the year.
Table 7 shows the allowable U values of some building elements of envelope.
By comparing the actual U values with the allowable U values, the degree of fulfillment of these properties in relation to the requirements prescribed by regulations is determined. The actual average U values are many times higher than the allowable U values and indicates the lack of layers of thermal insulation and to the greatest extent affects the total heat transmission losses. Due to the above, the U values of the building elements of the envelope represent one of the basic characteristics or character variables that affect the energy needs for space heating.
Based on the known data on the surfaces and the U values of the building elements of the envelope for each individual building, the values of the transmission heat transfer coefficients (
HTr) were calculated. The transmission heat transfer coefficients (
HTr) (W/K), according to EN 13789, are determined to the following expression [
46]:
where are they:
HD—the direct heat transfer coefficient between the heated space and the exterior through the building envelope (W/K),
HU—the transmission heat transfer coefficient through unconditioned spaces (W/K),
HG—the steady-state ground heat transfer coefficient (W/K),
HA—the transmission heat transfer coefficient to adjacent buildings (W/K).
The results of the research show that the average value of transmission heat losses (HTr) of buildings from the sample is 7137 W/K. The largest heat losses in the average amount of 6432 W/K (approx. 90%) relate to losses to the external environment (HD) through walls, ceilings and openings. Losses of the floor on the ground (HG) average 651 W/K (approx. 9%). Losses over unheated spaces (HU and HA) average 54 W/K (approx. 1%).
Regulation on technical requirements for thermal insulation of buildings and rational use of energy defined allowable values of the transmission heat transfer coefficients (
HTr) per unit area of the envelope (
A) marked
H′Tr,adj (W/m
2 K) in relation to the building shape factor (
fo) and the average monthly temperature of the coldest month of the year (Θ
e,m) [
31]. The average value of the transmission heat transfer coefficients (
H′Tr,adj) of the buildings in the sample is 1.58 (W/m
2 K), the average allowable value is 0.72 (W/m
2 K). Comparing the average actual and allowable values of the transmission heat transfer coefficients (
H′Tr,adj), we come to the conclusion that the actual values are over 2 times higher than allowable, which shows very poor thermal characteristics of the current state of existing school buildings in FBiH.
3.4. Energy Consumption Analysis of School Buildings
An analysis of actual and calculated energy consumption for space heating was performed. The actual energy consumption for space heating, in addition to the characteristics of the building and its parts and equipment, also depends on the behavior of the users themselves, which can have a significant impact on energy consumption, which this research did not include. The analysis of actual heat consumption was performed based on a dataset from DEA documents.
The energy consumption for space heating is measured through the delivered energy. Delivered energy for space heating (
QH,del) is energy, expressed per energy carrier, supplied to the technical building systems through the system boundary, to satisfy the use of space heating. Delivered energy can be calculated or it can be measured [
47]. The actual specific delivered energy for space heating (
Q′H,del) (kWh/m
2 year) in relation to the useful surface area of building (
Ak) is determined according to the following expression:
In the next step, it is necessary to determine whether the actual energy consumption for space heating corresponds to the needs. Therefore, the calculation or modeling energy for space heating is performed according to the applicable regulations or standards and the annual energy needs for space heating (
QH,nd) are calculated first. The annual energy needs for space heating (
QH,nd) represent the heat to be delivered to a conditioned space to maintain the intended temperature conditions during a given period. The energy needs are calculated and cannot easily be measured [
47].
The calculation of the annual energy needs for space heating (
QH,nd,cal) for the existing condition were performed based on the known above-mentioned input data for each building from the sample. The internal design temperature for school buildings is Θ
int = 20 °C. The annual energy needs for space heating (
QH,nd,cal) are calculated in accordance with the standard BAS EN ISO 13790 calculation method by months [
34]. The calculation methodology is not presented in this paper.
The calculated specific energy needs for space heating (
Q′H,nd,cal) (kWh/m
2 year) in relation to the useful surface area of building (
Ak) are determined according to the following expression:
According to the Regulation on energy certification of buildings, the energy ratings of buildings are determined in relation to the values of specific energy needs for space heating (
Q′H,nd) according to reference climate data (energy classes are graphically shown in
Figure 5) expressed in kWh/m
2 year [
32].
In this paper, approximate energy ratings are determined in relation to the actual climatic data and according to the average calculated specific energy needs for space heating (Q′H,nd,cal) (kWh/m2 year) because no energy certification is performed in relation to the reference climatic data.
The calculation of the annual delivered energy for space heating (
QH,del,cal) represents the quotient of the calculated annual energy needs for space heating (
QH,nd,cal) and the degree of efficiency of the heating system (
ηH,sys) according to the following expression:
The degree of efficiency of the heating system (ηH,sys) represents a measure of efficiency of converting the delivered energy (QH,del) into energy needs (QH,nd) for space heating and depends on the condition of the heating system and its elements (boiler, distribution and regulation). According to the data from the DEA, the average value of the efficiency of the heating system (ηH,sys) for school buildings in FBiH from the sample is 0.73 or approximately 73%, which means that an average of 27% of heat losses occur in the heating system. Due to the above, the improvement measures also envisage thermotechnical measures to improve the heating system in order to reduce heat losses.
The calculated specific delivered energy for space heating (
Q′H,del,cal) (kWh/m
2 year) in relation to the useful surface area of the building (
Ak) are determined according to the following expression:
The results of the statistical analysis of the actual specific delivered energy (
Q′H,del) and the calculated specific delivered energy (
Q′H,del,cal) for space heating of data set are shown in
Table 8 and
Figure 6.
The following
Table 9 summarizes the average values of the specific energy needs for space heating and energy class of school buildings in the FBiH from the sample in relation to the periods of construction.
The calculated specific energy needs for heating (Q′H,nd,cal) school buildings in FBiH from the sample have an average value of 171.90 kWh/m2 year (energy class D). The calculated specific energy needs for heating (Q′H,nd,cal) school buildings in north region (RN) FBiH have an average value of 197.05 kWh/m2 year (energy class E) and the calculated specific energy needs for heating (Q′H,nd,cal) school buildings in the south region (RS) FBiH have an average value of 98.04 kWh/m2 year (energy class C). It can be concluded that climatic conditions and the duration of the heating season have a significant impact on the energy for space heating, which in turn affects the total heating costs.
The actual specific delivered energy (Q′H,del) of school buildings in FBiH from the sample have an average value of 145.60 kWh/m2 year, in the range of approximately 82.00 to 193.00 kWh/m2 year there are 50% of schools in the sample. The average value of the calculated specific delivered energy for heating (Q′H,del,cal) school buildings in FBiH from the sample is 242.90 kWh/m2 year, in the range from approximately 155.00 to 304.00 kWh/m2 year there are 50% of schools in the sample. By comparing the actual and calculated values of the delivered energy for space heating (Q′H,del) of school buildings in FBiH, it can be concluded that the actual consumption is less than calculated and amounts to approximately 65%. There is a performance gap between predicted (calculated) and measured (actual) performance.
The authors of the detailed energy audit documents state that the poor thermal characteristics of the envelope and the high infiltration of outside air through the existing openings cause large heat losses. Moreover, the lack of funds that the analyzed schools receive from the founders (usually local government units) for the purchase of the necessary energy sources for heating is one of the main reasons for lower heat consumption. The consequences are reflected in lower room temperatures and non-heating of all parts of the building (especially hallways, school halls, and toilets) or some classrooms due to the smaller number of students, which is why the buildings do not provide a satisfactory level of thermal comfort, i.e., a pleasant and quality stay [
48,
49,
50,
51,
52,
53,
54].
A review of the literature also indicates the existence of the performance gap between the predicted and observed (measured) performance. The review by van Dronkelaar et al. finds the magnitude of the performance gap to be +34% based on 62 buildings. This paper finds the dominant causes of deviation are specific uncertainty in modeling, occupant behavior, and poor operational practice [
11].
A survey conducted in Slovenia on 24 school buildings in the period 1997 to 1999, based on energy audits, showed that these buildings are high energy consumers and have poor air quality, which was expressed by 60% of surveyed students. Heat losses have been shown to be 89% higher than the allowable values. The total annual energy consumption for space heating of the analyzed school buildings varied from less than 112 kWh/m
2 to 196 kWh/m
2. It has also been found that actual energy needs or energy consumption are less than calculated energy needs [
13].
As Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were parts of a common previous state with a similar common architectural heritage, the aforementioned research in Slovenia confirms the results of this research on school buildings in terms of energy consumption.
3.5. Correlation Analysis
A correlation analysis was performed to determine which variables (building characteristics) were associated with actual energy consumption for heating and with what degree of correlation. First, the factors of simple correlation of all variables were calculated based on data from the entire sample. For further analysis, the values of the factors of simple correlation of individual independent variables (Xi) in relation to the dependent variable (Y) for which the actual delivered energy (QH,del) for space heating were selected are particularly important.
Correlation coefficient values from 0 to 0.25 or from 0 to −0.25 indicate the absence of correlation, while values from 0.25 to 0.50 or from −0.25 to −0.50 indicate poor correlation between variables. Values from 0.50 to 0.75 or from −0.50 to −0.75 indicate a moderate to good correlation, and values from 0.75 to 1 or from −0.75 to −1 indicate a very good to excellent correlation between variables [
55].
The elimination of certain independent variables was performed in such a way that in the case of pairs of independent variables whose correlation coefficient exceeds the value of 0.50, the variable that has a lower correlation with the dependent variable is removed. By eliminating multicollinear independent variables, the following were ultimately adopted:
The number of heating degree days (HDD) that characterizes climatic conditions and whose correlation coefficient with the dependent variable (Y) is 0.5198, which represents a moderate to good correlation.
The variable that best defines the geometric characteristics of a building is the usable area (Ak). The correlation coefficient with the dependent variable (Y) is 0.5576, which represents a moderate to good correlation.
The correlation coefficient of the number of hours of work per day with the dependent variable (Y) is 0.5167, which represents a moderate to good correlation.
The results for the selected variables are presented through the final correlation matrix in
Table 10. Presented correlations are only those that are significant at
p < 0.05. If the coefficient of correlation is statistically significant in regard to the set limit (
p < 0.05), we conclude that the coefficient of correlation is significant.
Finally, multiple regression was performed for the selected variables to determine the strength of the interdependence of the dependent variable with all selected independent variables through the correlation index R of 0.7365, which represents a moderate to good correlation (values from 0.50 to 0.75 or from −0.50 to −0.75 indicate a moderate to good correlation between variables).
The determination index R2 was also determined and it shows what percentage of the variability of the dependent variable is explained through the variability of the independent variables. The value of the adjusted determination index R2 is 0.5348 and according to the Chaddock scale, the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables can be characterized as salient (values from 0.50 to 0.70). This can be interpreted as 53% of the variability of the dependent variable (the actual delivered energy (QH,del) for space heating) explained through the commonly combined 3 independent variables (the number of heating degree days (HDD), the usable area (Ak) and the number of hours of work per day).
The results of statistical tests show that the regression coefficients are statistically significant and so is the correlation index R (p < 0.0000). This indicates that the independent variables have a real relationship with the dependent variable.