A Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Timing in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Patient Participants
2.2. Data Collection
2.3. Statistical Analyses
3. Results
3.1. Patient Baseline Data
3.2. Independent Risk Factors in the Training Set
3.3. Predictive Model Construction
3.4. Predictive Model Validation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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ALL Patients (N = 204) | Medical NEC (N = 91) | Surgical NEC (N = 113) | p Value | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Basic information | ||||
Gender, n (%) | 0.140 | |||
Male | 115 (56.4%) | 57 (62.6%) | 58 (51.3%) | |
Female | 89 (43.6%) | 34 (37.4%) | 55 (48.7%) | |
Delivery method, n (%) | 0.258 | |||
Vaginal | 71 (34.8%) | 36 (39.6%) | 35 (31.0%) | |
Cesarean section | 133 (65.2%) | 55 (60.4%) | 78 (69.0%) | |
Gestational age (weeks) | 32.0 [29.0;35.0] | 33.0 [30.0;35.5] | 31.0 [28.0;34.0] | 0.002 |
Gestational age (weeks) | 0.024 | |||
≥37 | 31 (15.2%) | 15 (16.5%) | 16 (14.2%) | |
32–36 | 65 (31.9%) | 24 (26.4%) | 41 (36.3%) | |
28–31 | 81 (39.7%) | 45 (49.5%) | 36 (31.9%) | |
<28 | 27 (13.2%) | 7 (7.69%) | 20 (17.7%) | |
Birth weight (g) | 1735 [1280;2300] | 2000 [1550;2412] | 1500 [1200;2160] | 0.001 |
Birth weight (g) | 0.002 | |||
≥2500 | 38 (18.6%) | 19 (20.9%) | 19 (16.8%) | |
1500–2499 | 50 (24.5%) | 13 (14.3%) | 37 (32.7%) | |
1000–1499 | 90 (44.1%) | 51 (56.0%) | 39 (34.5%) | |
<1000 g | 26 (12.7%) | 8 (8.79%) | 18 (15.9%) | |
Admission age (d) | 13.0 [5.00;23.2] | 12.0 [4.00;22.0] | 13.0 [8.00;25.0] | 0.116 |
Onset age (d) | 11.0 [7.00;19.2] | 11.0 [6.50;17.5] | 12.0 [7.00;20.0] | 0.314 |
Apgar 1 min, n (%) | 9.00 [8.00;10.0] | 9.00 [8.50;10.0] | 9.00 [8.00;10.0] | 0.026 |
Apgar 1 min classification | 0.223 | |||
8–10 | 164 (80.4%) | 77 (84.6%) | 87 (77.0%) | |
4–7 | 37 (18.1%) | 14 (15.4%) | 23 (20.4%) | |
1–3 | 3 (1.47%) | 0 (0.00%) | 3 (2.65%) | |
Asphyxia, n (%) | <0.001 | |||
No | 102 (50.0%) | 61 (67.0%) | 41 (36.3%) | |
Yes | 102 (50.0%) | 30 (33.0%) | 72 (63.7%) | |
Clinical manifestations | ||||
Hypothermia, n (%) | 0.010 | |||
No | 181 (88.7%) | 87 (95.6%) | 94 (83.2%) | |
Yes | 23 (11.3%) | 4 (4.40%) | 19 (16.8%) | |
Abdominal distention, n (%) | 0.002 | |||
No | 46 (22.5%) | 30 (33.0%) | 16 (14.2%) | |
Yes | 158 (77.5%) | 61 (67.0%) | 97 (85.8%) | |
Hematochezia, n (%) | 0.058 | |||
No | 45 (22.1%) | 14 (15.4%) | 31 (27.4%) | |
Yes | 159 (77.9%) | 77 (84.6%) | 82 (72.6%) | |
Diarrhea, n (%) | 1.000 | |||
No | 199 (97.5%) | 89 (97.8%) | 110 (97.3%) | |
Yes | 5 (2.45%) | 2 (2.20%) | 3 (2.65%) | |
Emesis, n (%) | 0.056 | |||
No | 169 (82.8%) | 81 (89.0%) | 88 (77.9%) | |
Yes | 35 (17.2%) | 10 (11.0%) | 25 (22.1%) | |
Absent bowel sounds, n (%) | <0.001 | |||
No | 141 (69.1%) | 75 (82.4%) | 66 (58.4%) | |
Yes | 63 (30.9%) | 16 (17.6%) | 47 (41.6%) | |
Laboratory examination | ||||
WBC (109/L) | 7.84 [4.73;11.2] | 8.85 [6.81;11.7] | 5.91 [3.24;10.8] | <0.001 |
WBC classification | <0.001 | |||
5–20 × 109/L | 137 (67.2%) | 74 (81.3%) | 63 (55.8%) | |
>20 × 109/L or <5 × 109/L | 67 (32.8%) | 17 (18.7%) | 50 (44.2%) | |
N, n (%) | 53.1 [40.3;69.6] | 44.1 [34.0;61.5] | 59.3 [46.9;71.8] | <0.001 |
N classification | 0.041 | |||
≤75% | 176 (86.3%) | 84 (92.3%) | 92 (81.4%) | |
>75% | 28 (13.7%) | 7 (7.69%) | 21 (18.6%) | |
CRP (mg/L) | 23.5 [1.39;62.8] | 1.69 [0.50;22.5] | 50.0 [21.2;88.5] | <0.001 |
CRP classification | <0.001 | |||
<50 mg/L | 134 (65.7%) | 78 (85.7%) | 56 (49.6%) | |
≥50 mg/L | 70 (34.3%) | 13 (14.3%) | 57 (50.4%) | |
PLT (109/L) | 202 [118;302] | 245 [184;367] | 177 [103;246] | <0.001 |
PLT classification | 0.006 | |||
≥100 × 109/L | 171 (83.8%) | 84 (92.3%) | 87 (77.0%) | |
<100 × 109/L | 33 (16.2%) | 7 (7.69%) | 26 (23.0%) | |
PT * (s) | 14.1 [12.9;17.0] | 13.6 [12.8;14.9] | 15.1 [13.2;18.3] | <0.001 |
PT * classification | <0.001 | |||
<17 s | 140 (74.1%) | 68 (88.3%) | 72 (64.3%) | |
≥17 s | 49 (25.9%) | 9 (11.7%) | 40 (35.7%) | |
APTT * (s) | 53.0 [46.1;74.4] | 49.5 [40.3;59.7] | 58.0 [49.2;80.6] | <0.001 |
APTT * classification | 0.002 | |||
<70 s | 138 (73.0%) | 66 (85.7%) | 72 (64.3%) | |
≥70 s | 51 (27.0%) | 11 (14.3%) | 40 (35.7%) | |
pH | 7.37 [7.31;7.42] | 7.40 [7.36;7.44] | 7.34 [7.25;7.40] | <0.001 |
Acidosis (pH < 7.35) | <0.001 | |||
No | 125 (61.3%) | 71 (78.0%) | 54 (47.8%) | |
Yes | 79 (38.7%) | 20 (22.0%) | 59 (52.2%) | |
Lac (mmol/L) | 2.40 [1.50;3.40] | 2.40 [1.75;3.25] | 2.30 [1.40;3.50] | 0.377 |
Lac classification | 0.079 | |||
≤1.6 mmol/L | 61 (29.9%) | 21 (23.1%) | 40 (35.4%) | |
>1.6 mmol/L | 143 (70.1%) | 70 (76.9%) | 73 (64.6%) | |
Radiological manifestations | ||||
Intestinal dilation, n (%) | 0.057 | |||
No | 57 (27.9%) | 32 (35.2%) | 25 (22.1%) | |
Yes | 147 (72.1%) | 59 (64.8%) | 88 (77.9%) | |
Ascites, n (%) | 0.001 | |||
No | 129 (63.2%) | 69 (75.8%) | 60 (53.1%) | |
Yes | 75 (36.8%) | 22 (24.2%) | 53 (46.9%) | |
Intestinal stiffness, n (%) | <0.001 | |||
No | 104 (51.0%) | 60 (65.9%) | 44 (38.9%) | |
Yes | 100 (49.0%) | 31 (34.1%) | 69 (61.1%) | |
Pneumatosis intestinalis, n (%) | <0.001 | |||
No | 126 (61.8%) | 70 (76.9%) | 56 (49.6%) | |
Yes | 78 (38.2%) | 21 (23.1%) | 57 (50.4%) | |
Ileus, n (%) | 0.741 | |||
No | 158 (77.5%) | 69 (75.8%) | 89 (78.8%) | |
Yes | 46 (22.5%) | 22 (24.2%) | 24 (21.2%) | |
Portal pneumatosis, n (%) | 0.021 | |||
No | 177 (86.8%) | 85 (93.4%) | 92 (81.4%) | |
Yes | 27 (13.2%) | 6 (6.59%) | 21 (18.6%) |
Characteristics | Uni-B | Uni-SE | Uni-OR | Uni-CI | Uni-P | Multi-B | Multi-SE | Multi-OR | Multi-CI | Multi-P |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hypothermia | 1.247 | 0.58345 | 3.481 | 1.109–10.922 | 0.033 | 1.71 | 0.76935 | 5.527 | 1.224–24.968 | 0.026 |
Absent bowel sounds | 1.214 | 0.37153 | 3.367 | 1.626–6.975 | 0.001 | 1 | 0.49527 | 2.717 | 1.029–7.173 | 0.044 |
WBC classification | 1.123 | 0.36447 | 3.073 | 1.504–6.277 | 0.002 | 0.993 | 0.49895 | 2.698 | 1.015–7.175 | 0.047 |
CRP classification | 1.632 | 0.38811 | 5.114 | 2.39–10.942 | <0.001 | 1.089 | 0.50494 | 2.972 | 1.105–7.996 | 0.031 |
PT classification | 1.544 | 0.45618 | 4.684 | 1.915–11.452 | 0.001 | 0.867 | 0.57066 | 2.38 | 0.778–7.285 | 0.129 |
Acidosis | 1.603 | 0.37054 | 4.969 | 2.403–10.272 | <0.001 | 0.903 | 0.47685 | 2.468 | 0.969–6.284 | 0.058 |
Ascites | 1.048 | 0.3471 | 2.852 | 1.445–5.632 | 0.003 | 1.301 | 0.50546 | 3.671 | 1.363–9.887 | 0.01 |
Intestinal stiffness | 1.087 | 0.32837 | 2.964 | 1.557–5.641 | 0.001 | 0.8 | 0.44533 | 2.225 | 0.93–5.326 | 0.073 |
Pneumatosis intestinalis | 1.299 | 0.35176 | 3.667 | 1.84–7.306 | <0.001 | 1.347 | 0.46464 | 3.845 | 1.547–9.56 | 0.004 |
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Shi, B.; Shen, L.; Huang, W.; Cai, L.; Yang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Tou, J.; Lai, D. A Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Timing in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis. J. Clin. Med. 2023, 12, 3062. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12093062
Shi B, Shen L, Huang W, Cai L, Yang S, Zhang Y, Tou J, Lai D. A Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Timing in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis. Journal of Clinical Medicine. 2023; 12(9):3062. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12093062
Chicago/Turabian StyleShi, Bo, Leiting Shen, Wenchang Huang, Linghao Cai, Sisi Yang, Yuanyuan Zhang, Jinfa Tou, and Dengming Lai. 2023. "A Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Timing in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis" Journal of Clinical Medicine 12, no. 9: 3062. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12093062
APA StyleShi, B., Shen, L., Huang, W., Cai, L., Yang, S., Zhang, Y., Tou, J., & Lai, D. (2023). A Nomogram for Predicting Surgical Timing in Neonates with Necrotizing Enterocolitis. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 12(9), 3062. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm12093062