System “Person-State-Society” in Period of Social Turbulence and Big Challenges (Case Study: Tomsk City, the Russian Federation)

Abstract

The article reflects the role of society in an era of uncertainty and people’s behavior in response to big challenges. The aim is to consider the responsibility for resolving crisis situations by state power. Comprehending is possible on the theory formed by the concepts of social turbulence and aggravated regimes, which are based on such characteristics of processes as nonlinearity, spontaneity, uncertainty, and high speeds. This study offers the hypothesis about the shift in the value orientations of the population from the rational to the irrational area in the face of growing uncertainty and turbulence in the environment, which should become the subject of managerial influence when forming a corrective or anti-crisis policy, and about the formation public demand for “strong” state intervention, protecting the population from the negative consequences of regimes with escalations. The article concludes the practical significance and applicability of the research, but also as a theoretical basis for the development of methods and technologies for diagnostics of public demand within the framework of information and analytical support of public administration.

1. Introduction

Currently, we are witnessing a significant increase in the role of science in improving the quality of citizens’ life in the country in radically changed external conditions. The results of numerous analytical reviews of the current level of scientific and technological progress and its further development forecasts confirm that the world is on the threshold of a new economic reality. It is necessary to comprehend what is happening and strategically plan for the future. Research on various aspects of responses to big challenges seems relevant, especially in an era of uncertainty. Finding the right balance of opinions is an important task here.

Society is constantly faced with various challenges, the nature of which is quite diverse. Some lie in the political sphere (military, local, and interstate confrontations and conflicts [1,2,3,4]; change in political regimes [5,6,7,8]; and ethnic confrontations [9,10]), while others are projected onto the system of economic relations (financial recession [11,12], structural restructuring of the economy [13,14,15,16], and sanctions [17,18,19,20]), some are generated by the social organism itself (cultural and ideological shifts [21,22,23,24,25,26,27] and social differentiation [28,29]).

Each of them can be considered as a source of the start of a crisis state, the responsibility for resolving which lies primarily with one of the most systemic institutions—state power. From the standpoint of public administration, such anomalies in development introduce significant disorganization into the functioning of systems-objects of management of various scales (in the work of Khan M. [30], to describe this state a rather capacious term, «managerial failure» can be used). They are evident not only in the violation of the stability regime but also in the form of changes in social values and behavior, as a rule, aggravating the current situation.

Comprehending such observations is possible on the basis of theoretical ideas formed by the concepts of social turbulence and aggravated regimes, which are based on such characteristics of processes as nonlinearity, spontaneity, uncertainty, and high speeds.

The objective of the study is to consider issues related to the impact of social turbulence on society that is studied in the context of behavioral deviations’ influence on public administration because of the need to change its content in the framework of crisis situations.

As a part of the empirical study, it is supposed to test the hypothesis about the shift of the population’s value orientations from rational to irrational comprehension and the formation of public demand for a “strong” state, protecting the population from the negative consequences of regimes with escalations. The article attempts to determine the attitude of the population of Tomsk to the global and local agenda of ultra-fast processes through an assessment of their own behavior and appeals to government institutions using examples of situations caused by the development of the epidemic caused by the coronavirus and the transformation of the urban real estate market.

2. Literature Review

The phenomenon of turbulence in social processes is considered by many authors. At the same time, the level of immersion in the problematics in various works differs significantly: there are both complex works focused on building a conceptual and theoretical basis and works in which the issue under consideration is covered fragmentarily. It should be noted that quite often, the issues of turbulence development are analyzed at the macro level. From this position, global relations are considered in terms of the flow of international conflicts [31,32], “color” revolutions [33,34,35,36,37], and macroeconomic processes [38,39].

According to Yanitsky O.N., at present, the synergistic effect of the superposition of past (unresolved) problems and new global challenges is clearly manifested: one catastrophe creeps into another, inter-crisis periods are shortened, and the way out of the next crisis becomes protracted, most conflicts are not resolved, and only “freezes” [40]. Such a view, based on the effect of postponing the consequences of specific incidents in the relationship of subjects of political and socio-economic relations, is direct evidence of the formation of escalation regimes developed within the framework of the scientific school of Kurdyumov S.P. and Samarsky A.A., including in relation to the development of a social organism.

At the same time, it is advisable to agree with the opinion of Osica O. [41] that despite the development of various theoretical models and structures describing situations of self-organization and self-stabilization systems, from the practical point of view, the role of the state in crisis situations becomes decisive, which confirms the experience of past years. Large-scale changes in social relations have never happened without the active participation of the state.

A similar position is reflected in the work of Guzzini S., who considers the need for a prompt response from the authorities to a non-linear change in the political situation in the country. At the same time, emphasis is placed on the general constructivist power analysis and its growing importance that influence the choice of the direction of further development at the bifurcation point [42]. Certain aspects of managing social turbulence are also touched upon by other authors: for example, Laszlo E. considers systemic, synergetic, phenomenological, and cognitive approaches [43,44], and the problems of managing social turbulence are defined from the standpoint of determining the contour of the boundaries of controllability [45].

From the breadth of this theoretical and conceptual basis, the scientific research of the authors mentioned above are devoted to the search and characterization at the macro level of periods and incidents of turbulence in history, which makes it possible to identify the essential aspects of this phenomenon. At the same time, the main emphasis is placed on the political level of governance. The effects of turbulence are manifested not only in the global agenda but at the national, regional, and local levels of the social sphere and the economy.

It is the regional and municipal governments that receive the first “blow” from the population in the formation and development of a turbulent environment. In this regard, these structures should have certain management patterns that take into account the nature of behavior transformation and modified social expectations. The latter can be identified by power institutions through the analysis of public demand.

Despite the widespread use in various sources, including scientific publications, stable meanings of the term “public request” are not found. Therefore, in the work of Petukhov V.V. [46] and Limani B. and Limani E. [47], a public request is understood as a message coming from society as a whole or part of it, addressed either to the authorities or to another part of society.

Other researchers only indirectly revealed the meaning of this concept. For example, the work of Oe H. and Yamaoka Y. [48] emphasizes that this is a tool for connecting various segments of the population with power structures, implementing the nudge effect. They considered its various forms. One of them is a public opinion poll. At the same time, the sum of the views of individuals is not always transformed into a public request.

A certain aggregated position becomes such only when it comes to social problems that directly concern a person, i.e., in the case when the person can be an expert, and, accordingly, this person’s judgment has social weight. It is advisable to agree with this argument since the request is characterized by the presence of an active position of society, requiring appropriate action from the other side.

On any other issue that is not related to the personal needs of a person, the totality of opinions can represent nothing more than a public opinion that does not entail the need for tangible intervention since there are no states of destabilization of relations and managerial failure.

In the work of Sturmberg J.P., Tsasis P., and Hoemeke L., the situation with the assessment of the activities of the authorities during the coronavirus pandemic is considered [49]. They emphasized the need for a robust distributed health system and for transparent communication as the basis for trust in the system. It is noted that the measures taken by state bodies were often not only stimulating and supportive but also restrictive. Simultaneously, the demand for ensuring the adoption of adequate measures aimed, on the one hand, at preventing the spread of coronavirus infection, eliminating restrictions on the rights and freedoms of citizens, and on the other, minimizing the economic risks and social consequences of the pandemic [50].

The adequacy of the respondents mentioned in the position within the framework of logical interpretation can be interpreted as the use of an arsenal of management technologies commensurate with the targets (necessary and sufficient level), which, in turn, are indicated in the contextual field of anti-crisis policy. This conclusion allows us to formulate an indirect conclusion about the admissibility of society to implement any policy that would achieve the planned or required result. At the same time, the regulatory effect may well have a force connotation [51].

It should be kept in mind that in a crisis situation caused by social turbulence, the focus of public demand shifts towards delegating power to a significantly wider range of powers than in conditions of stability. Therefore, Keynes, J.M. noted in his work that “it is impossible to maximize freedom, justice and efficiency at the same time” [52]. For example, in the “pre-Covid” (pre-crisis) world, the dominant of this triad, which can be identified as a public demand or demand, was freedom, but at the current moment, correlated with the period of the aggravated regime, efficiency becomes the main priority.

In the classical reading, efficiency represents the best ratio of results to costs incurred, which is achieved, as a rule, through the implementation of an unpopular policy since it affects the interests of various social groups, which, as a result of the impacts under consideration (optimization, modernization, improvement), lose influence, resources, benefits, etc., i.e., experience certain limitations.

From the point of view of indicators, this is manifested in the strengthening of paternalistic sentiments, expressed in the fact that the state is obliged to “take care of everyone”, and not just create conditions for the development of various subjects of relations. At the same time, in the conditions of this social contract developing in crisis conditions, society is ready for sacrifices, including forceful influence, in order to achieve the effect of security.

3. Methods

The methodological basis of the study is documentary analysis, formalized interviews, statistical data processing, and logical inductive–deductive inference. New empirical data have been obtained: behavioral assessment of the population in conditions of social turbulence and the public demand formed under its influence. The main result of the research is the justified need to transform the public administration system during periods with non-linear dynamics and high speeds in terms of implementing a policy of strengthening the regulatory impact on the areas of management that are most affected by the crisis. The work is of interest to practitioners of government and administration, as well as researchers involved in the problems of social turbulence.

The object of the study was a part of the population of Tomsk (Russia) over the age of 14 years. The size of the general population is 477 thousand people, and the sample size is 898 people (quota selection was used). Sex and age were used as controlled traits (the distribution of the sample by controlled traits is presented in

Table 1. Respondents’ number distribution in the sample, person.

Age	Respondents’ Number
	Men	Women
14–17	25	24
18–19	15	16
20–29	82	86
30–39	136	145
40–49	83	91
50–59	58	70
60+	27	40
TOTAL	426	472

Source: own study.

), which is due to several circumstances. Thus, demographic characteristics, most often, act as primary parameters that determine other social and status characteristics of respondents. In addition, the distribution of the population according to the specified parameters is known in advance thanks to the statistical accounting system, which is an a priori condition for the implementation of a quota sample. Data collection was carried out as part of a mass survey (data collection period: 14 October 2021–3 November 2021), which, from a meaningful point of view, was based on the consideration of respondents’ positions regarding the case, the participants of which were or could potentially be city residents: turbulent relations in the framework of the development of epidemic processes associated with coronavirus infection (global–national dominant).

The main criteria for identifying the public demand for a “strong” state (this is a kind of “collective image”, since each political and legal doctrine, in fact, seeks to create an ideal theoretical model of a strong statehood) were the respondents’ support for the restrictive policy of the authorities in aggravated regimes and the call for sharing responsibility for destabilizing the socio-economic situation through the use of regulation based on the use of public resources. Within the framework of the presented study, the authors developed the software part; carried out quality control of the collected data; and processed, analyzed, and interpreted them.

From the technological point of view, the study was implemented through the following set of procedures: development of the research program (defining the objectives and tasks of the study, the research object; interpretation and operationalization of concepts; systematic analysis of the research area, formulation of hypotheses; development of research tools); collection, coding, data quality assurance; data processing (frequency analysis); analysis and interpretation of results (including a comparison of numerical results with hypotheses); and generalization of results. In developing the program part, we relied on current publications and identified incidents (citizen behavior). These materials served as a starting point for identifying problems and proposing hypotheses. The interview script was developed on the basis of concepts that we interpreted and operationalized; that is, we gave them an empirical meaning and specified procedures for recording data. Quality control of the collected data was carried out through sample phone calls with respondents who left contact information. Data quality was also controlled by comparing respondents’ responses to some of the program and control questions. In total, less than 0.5 percent of the completed interview forms were rejected. Quality control was also performed by instructing interviewers in detail. Data processing was performed using conventional spreadsheet processors and consisted of counting the frequency of respondents’ responses to each question.

4. Results

One of the most obvious recent processes disrupting public life can be called the forced spread of coronavirus infection, which can be unambiguously identified as social turbulence. Significantly changed under the influence of the development of the epidemic, the format of social interactions and behavior did not go unnoticed by 80% of respondents. For the vast majority of them, behavioral deviations manifested themselves in restrictions on offline communication and a decrease in the number of movements (33%), as well as changes in the content of the information environment (25%), shown in an increased interest in the content of the media and Internet resources on the subject, related to COVID-19 and the frequency with which the issue is raised in private conversations and public dialogue. Somewhat less massive, but no less noticeable, for the respondents were such changes in social behavior as consumer excitement (14%), which appeared in an increased demand for certain items of the product range, a decrease in the number of joint activities (12%), and an increase in appeals to government and social organizations on issues that are in one way or another related to both the development of the epidemic situation and its management (10%). Some respondents noted and associated with the spread of coronavirus infection a general deterioration in the psychological situation in society (increased aggression, the development of anxiety and panic, etc.), a change in the social dress code (the widespread wearing of masks), campaigns to deny the epidemic, a decrease in business activity, etc., which is only 6% of the respondents (Figure 1).

It should be noted that for half of the respondents (50%), their usual rhythm of life was destabilized to a certain extent (scores 6–10 on a ten-point scale) due to the development of the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 2). At the same time, only a third (35%) of behavioral transformations were due to their own needs (for example, fears for their own health or the health of loved ones).

For the vast majority (65%), the need to change the established format of life was the result of various external factors, including the introduction of restrictive measures, a decrease in business activity, etc.) (Figure 2).

Despite some criticism of the policy in the field of curbing the development of an unfavorable epidemiological situation, the state is taking a system of measures aimed at preventing the negative consequences of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. Respondents expressed their attitude to these regulatory influences by giving a numerical assessment (point) in the context of their support (a scale from 1 to 10 was used, corresponding to the continuum “absolutely do not support—completely support”). Summary data are presented in

Table 2. Respondents’ answers distributed on the questions about support for measures taken by the state aimed at preventing the negative consequences of the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, %.

Limit Tool	Point
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Mandatory wearing of face masks in public places	9	3	6	4	11	7	12	8	3	37
Prohibition of events involving mass gatherings of people	10	4	8	7	20	6	14	10	3	18
Vaccination campaign	21	6	11	9	16	7	6	3	5	16
Transition to online education	17	4	8	5	23	12	10	7	3	11
Transition to a remote work format	17	2	6	3	16	10	15	11	5	15
Establishment of special regimes for social groups (for example, “home regime” for pensioners)	11	3	8	4	14	5	11	14	5	25
Establishment of requirements focused on the need to maintain social distance (for example, sparse filling of cinema halls)	11	4	3	8	23	13	11	7	4	16
A ban on leisure activities for children in crowded places (for example, a ban on the operation of children’s rooms and playgrounds in entertainment centers)	16	5	8	3	21	9	7	13	4	14
Prohibition on the work of leisure organizations (for example, discos, bars, etc.)	15	2	6	4	16	4	15	10	3	25
Quarantine measures for persons arriving from abroad	15	4	5	5	11	3	13	5	5	34
Limitation of planned medical care	50	7	9	11	8	5	3	1	2	4
Establishing QR access to benefits and activities	33	6	6	3	11	2	4	7	8	20

Source: own study.

(ratings in the range from 6 to 10 were interpreted as support for the relevant restrictive instrument by the population) and in Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 5, Figure 6, Figure 7, Figure 8, Figure 9, Figure 10, Figure 11, Figure 12 and Figure 13 (sets of responses are highlighted in red, which reflect support for the relevant decisions of the authorities and are interpreted as a formed public demand for “forceful” intervention in the situation).

The presented data show that for the most part of the measures taken, residents share the position of the authorities regarding the introduction of certain restrictions: the mandatory wearing of protective masks in public places (67%, Figure 3); a ban on events involving mass gatherings of people (51%, Figure 4); the work of some organizations in the leisure sector, for example, discos, bars, etc. (57%, Figure 5); optimization of work activities aimed at reducing physical interactions by switching to a remote work format (56%, Figure 6); establishing special regimes for certain categories of citizens (social groups), for example, pensioners, aimed at minimizing social interactions (60%, Figure 7); establishing requirements in terms of creating conditions that ensure social distancing, for example, when the halls of leisure organizations are full (51%, Figure 8); and isolating people from abroad (60%, Figure 9).

The transition to online education is not so unequivocally positively perceived. Only 43% of respondents support such a measure (Figure 10). Approximately at the same level (47%) is the establishment of bans on leisure activities for children in crowded places, for example, in specialized or shopping and entertainment centers (Figure 11). At the same time, for these two instruments, we see a rather high proportion of respondents who gave a score of “5” directly adjoining to the interval from “6” to “10”, interpreted as a position of support for the government’s policy. It is worth noting that for almost all the distributions under consideration, along with the extreme values (“1” and “10”), this assessment forms one of the three dominant focuses (outliers), which can be interpreted as the consolidation of the positions of the respondents when reducing the assessment range into a triad, within the framework of which between the poles of the continuum “I absolutely do not support—I fully support”, a category of undecided respondents appears, whose position can shift both in one direction and the other. Considering the total number of respondents as a potential that can be mobilized or “recruited” in terms of transferring the corresponding population group to the number of supporters of the implemented policy, we can make an assumption (by setting the lower limit of the support interval from “6” to “5”) that the transition to the online format for the implementation of educational activities, and the ban on the functioning of children’s leisure activities are publicly supported (66% and 68%, respectively).

A somewhat more ambiguous situation is observed when considering measures of total or cross-cutting application. Unlike the previously reviewed selective tools that affect either certain areas of restrictions or certain groups, the vaccination campaign for the formation of herd immunity does not arouse so much unambiguous support: only 37% of respondents agree with this direction of policy implemented by the authorities (Figure 12). A similar situation is observed in terms of the legalization of QR codes as permissions for access to certain benefits and activities (41%, Figure 13). This situation can be explained partly by the widespread public discussion that is unfolding in the media and the Internet regarding the impact of vaccination on both the control of the source of the disease and on human health. The resolution of this issue is not included in the subject of this study; therefore, the corresponding conclusion is formulated only as an assumption and has not been empirically tested. By returning to the quantitative assessments of the measures under consideration, it can be stated that by taking into account the possible mobilization potential (part of the respondents who did not fully decide: those who rated “5”), support for vaccination campaigns and QR permits is supported by 53 and 52 percent of respondents.

The only distribution that unambiguously works in opposition to the initially formulated hypothesis is the respondents’ answers to the question about support for measures to limit planned medical care. The vast majority of respondents (83%) clearly do not support measures related to the reallocation of health system resources (Figure 14), which is most likely due to the fact that the goals of individuals in terms of combating possible health consequences caused by coronavirus infections, and other diseases began to compete with each other. Personal prioritization determined a greater significance of other threats (diseases) of a particular person than COVID-19.

The data presented in terms of behavior in the context of the development of coronavirus infection as a turbulent process testify to the confirmation of the originally formulated hypothesis about the formation of public demand for a “strong” state and “forceful” intervention in the context of the development of “aggravated” regimes. The population mostly supports the current policy. At the same time, protest moods are also noticeable, expressed in absolute opposition to government institutions (rating “1”, ranging from 9% to 33% for events that received preferential approval). The population is looking for a certain “patronage” and protection from the state since they have not been able to fully regulate the change in the format of life irrationalized by escalations.

As we have seen, health policy has been centralized at the government level. It has not been transferred to the level of local authorities. The restrictions were recommended and were not imposed, but they were applied hard by reason of the complexity of the pandemic fighting process. The coronavirus epidemic has highlighted the importance of improving the efficiency of the system of social support for the population through digitalization and better targeting of assistance. The “Zero tolerance” policy had not been fully applied in Russia, Tomsk, in particular.

Moreover, the Tomsk region was identified as a region to study the best practice in planning socio-economic development, the strategy of which provides a detailed analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on society and presents measures to neutralize the consequences.

5. Discussion

The results indicate that behavioral response depends on the degree of responsibility assigned by the state to the individual, and after Robinson K., McKenna B., and Rooney D., we agree that our society is faced with ethical and moral dilemmas daily. For businesses, these dilemmas can include social and environmental impact; and for governments, the social and economic impact of their decision-making in their response to COVID-19 [2].

Moreover, social risks and challenges form the concept of “bad” timing in the public mind [3]. The study demonstrates that “bad” times were the periods when personal prioritization determined a significantly greater significance of other threats (diseases) of a particular person than COVID-19. The coronavirus pandemic, as a global challenge of our time, on the one hand, weakened the world economy, on the other hand, gave impetus to the development of digitalization, which now must be perceived not as an additional but as a necessary condition for progress.

Naturally, in times of turbulence, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive assessment and diagnostics of factors—regulators and a system of restrictions. Therefore, Shimshack J.P. and Ward M.B. discussed the importance of considering the role of two factors, responsiveness to penalties and costs of sanctions [18], and this idea is supported by the presented results.

Social management develops the ideas of a systematic approach based on the assumption of managed elements’ typification. Homogeneity in this context means establishing de facto equality (or at least equivalence) with respect to all managed elements. The abstract nature of such systems expands the possibilities of controlling behavior and the calculation of strict behavior algorithms. However, in a situation of turbulence, when controlled elements become “fluid objects”, such systems become too cumbersome and inefficient. Therefore, according to R. Agarwal, management effectiveness depends on the extent to which the fundamental heterogeneity of managed objects is taken into account [53]. It is the application of the concept of heterogeneity that can become one of the new approaches to social management in conditions of turbulence. In this case, the emphasis should be on the micro level, i.e., on direct practices of interaction, taking into account local specifics and features.

As this study shows, the population mostly supports the current policy, but at the same time, protest moods are also noticeable. In general, the population is looking for a certain “patronage” and protection from the state since they have not been able to fully regulate the change in the format of life irrationalized by escalations. In the opinion of Parmentier S. and Umaña C., it is obvious, especially in the context of recent demographic, political, and ideological shifts within the internal and external environments. A significant period of change requires institutions to undergo significant structural and cultural [29]. Civic culture, in this case, is imperative for strengthening the human being’s influence as a historical subject and participant in the present and future social movements. At the same time, there are some dimensions of relational governance, and trust is the one that has a significant positive influence on the problems’ overcoming. We posit that the role of a strong state is one of the determining factors for success and plays an important role in dealing with big challenges, which help to determine the prospects for the success of social development. The state must provide the country with political stability, economic growth, and the prospect of social development. You need the ability to mobilize resources to meet your goals.

Therefore, a threat is always a challenge, but not every challenge is a threat. With a timely and adequate response to the challenge, it is possible not only to maintain the previous position but also to reach a new, higher level of development.

At present, when the continuity of variability is becoming an ontological feature of the modern world, it needs to have the mechanism for the social management processes constants’ formation, which, by their own invariant, are able to simultaneously determine the direction of management processes in society and serve as the basis for such processes, which, in turn, will lead to the improvement of management subjects, to a positive dynamics in the development of subject relations in society.

6. Conclusions

The content of the state development strategy allows us to draw the following conclusions: firstly, the pandemic is defined as a significant factor and a threat to strategic development, which is justified by indicators of socio-economic development; secondly, the corona-crisis restrictions are reflected in many areas of the economy, which determined the strategic goals and objectives development; thirdly, the quantitative estimates of the pandemic are very limited and are descriptive, the threats of the pandemic and certain strategic development objectives do not coincide by type of economic activity, which makes it impossible to describe them by the ratio “cause (threat to development)—consequence (strategic task)”.

The authors considered an approach that would enable them to analyze and categorize a large amount of data. This was performed to present coherent findings that would contribute to a better understanding of the different aspects of knowledge management of society that pertains to sustainability. The study emphasizes the importance of the impact of social turbulence on society that is studied in the context of behavioral deviations’ influence on public administration because of the need to change its content in the framework of the crisis situations. Integrating multidisciplinary and heterogeneous knowledge, we may increasingly rely on knowledge-generating resources as a means of development to enhance alignment with the guidelines of economic, environmental, and social sustainability.

Social turbulence, apparently, has become an integral attribute of the development of modern society. Autonomous escalations and overlapping crises of various scales (from global to local) lead to the formation of irrational behavioral deviations, which, in turn, act as an important factor that cannot be ignored when forming an adequate model of public administration.

Undoubtedly, the results presented in this paper form only a certain perspective on the problems of management in conditions of large and small crises. The applied nature of these studies, first of all, is intended to show the practical significance and applicability of the concept under consideration, introducing it into the real activities of state authorities and local governments, not only as a tool for understanding social cataclysms after the fact but also as a theoretical basis for the development of methods and technologies diagnostics of public demand within the framework of information and analytical support of public administration.