Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Results
2.1. Current Distribution of C. odorata
2.2. Potential Distribution of C. odorata
3. Discussion
3.1. Current Distribution of C. odorata
3.2. Potential Distribution of C. odorata
4. Materials and Methods
4.1. Study Species
4.2. Study Area
4.3. Data Acquisition
4.4. Climate Variables
4.5. Distribution Model and Optimum Germination Temperature Range
4.6. Modeling Current Distributions of C. odorata
4.7. Model of Potential Distribution of C. odorata
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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State | Current (km2) | 2050 (km2) | 2070 (km2) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 | ||
Campeche | 49,206.37 | 46,696.03 | 46,596.33 | 45,717.05 | 46,299.80 |
Chiapas | 26,474.27 | 31,882.02 | 32,529.20 | 32,424.94 | 33,982.65 |
Chihuahua | 433.45 | 28.61 | 2.23 | 16.59 | - |
Colima | 335.29 | 572.07 | 208.92 | 475.87 | 929.28 |
Durango | 1508.06 | 1128.22 | 773.41 | 1101.02 | 759.43 |
Guanajuato | - | 15.38 | 6.64 | 65.10 | 2.70 |
Guerrero | 6033.25 | 2138.62 | 2268.99 | 2150.80 | 2684.70 |
Hidalgo | 668.78 | 1867.85 | 1566.70 | 1831.65 | 1755.27 |
Jalisco | 5044.10 | 8603.37 | 8863.37 | 9131.17 | 8990.25 |
Mexico | 433.54 | 67.76 | 80.22 | 46.47 | 4.41 |
Michoacan | 435.00 | 1391.38 | 409.87 | 1,301.65 | 798.17 |
Morelos | 802.23 | 122.15 | 70.71 | 62.82 | 72.15 |
Nayarit | 8899.30 | 8895.37 | 9016.18 | 9022.26 | 8872.49 |
Oaxaca | 16,410.20 | 20,896.92 | 20,852.32 | 18,317.95 | 19,579.65 |
Puebla | 1341.35 | 848.88 | 1368.41 | 1309.98 | 1862.81 |
Queretaro | 71.61 | 137.77 | 96.53 | 158.12 | 65.26 |
Quintana Roo | 20,136.19 | 17,307.75 | 16,330.78 | 15,596.01 | 18,351.02 |
San Luis Potosi | 6848.31 | 4888.47 | 5112.18 | 4445.60 | 5200.63 |
Sinaloa | 6586.40 | 9883.49 | 9728.92 | 9754.78 | 9823.81 |
Sonora | 16.45 | 11.42 | 32.58 | 3.78 | 31.98 |
Tabasco | 14,217.66 | 17,776.39 | 16,326.25 | 18,410.85 | 16,609.55 |
Tamaulipas | 4623.80 | 3757.83 | 3467.14 | 3779.01 | 3526.20 |
Veracruz | 24,716.46 | 31,145.75 | 31,821.38 | 31,705.65 | 32,537.99 |
Yucatan | 33,538.96 | 33,827.35 | 34,003.95 | 33,109.55 | 33,941.25 |
Suitability area (km2) | 228,780.66 | 243,890.85 | 241,533.21 | 239,938.67 | 246,681.45 |
Increment area (km2) | N/A | 15,110.19 | 12,752.55 | 11,158.01 | 17,900.79 |
Percentage of increment (%) | N/A | 6.60 | 5.57 | 4.87 | 7.82 |
Abbreviation | Environmental Variable | Units | Used for Modeling |
---|---|---|---|
Bio1 | Annual average temperature | (°C) | No |
Bio2 | Diurnal temperature oscillation | (°C) | Yes |
Bio3 | Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) × 100 | (°C) | No |
Bio4 | Temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) | (°C) | Yes |
Bio5 | Maximum average temperature of the warmest period | (°C) | No |
Bio6 | Minimum temperature of the coldest month | (°C) | Yes |
Bio7 | Annual temperature oscillation (Bio5–Bio6) | (°C) | Yes |
Bio8 | Average temperature of the wettest month | (°C) | No |
Bio9 | Average temperature of the driest month | (°C) | Yes |
Bio10 | Average temperature of the warmest quarter | (°C) | No |
Bio11 | Average temperature of the coldest quarter | (°C) | No |
Bio12 | Annual precipitation | (mm) | Yes |
Bio13 | Precipitation during the wettest period | (mm) | No |
Bio14 | Precipitation during the driest period | (mm) | Yes |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation) | CV | No |
Bio16 | Precipitation during the wettest trimester | (mm) | No |
Bio17 | Precipitation during the driest trimester | (mm) | No |
Bio18 | Precipitation during the warmest trimester | (mm) | No |
Bio19 | Precipitation during the coldest trimester | (mm) | No |
Altitude | Elevation | (m) | No |
Soils | Soil type | - | Yes |
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Sampayo-Maldonado, S.; Ordoñez-Salanueva, C.A.; Mattana, E.; Way, M.; Castillo-Lorenzo, E.; Dávila-Aranda, P.D.; Lira-Saade, R.; Téllez-Valdés, O.; Rodríguez-Arévalo, N.I.; Flores-Ortiz, C.M.; et al. Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Plants 2023, 12, 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants12010150
Sampayo-Maldonado S, Ordoñez-Salanueva CA, Mattana E, Way M, Castillo-Lorenzo E, Dávila-Aranda PD, Lira-Saade R, Téllez-Valdés O, Rodríguez-Arévalo NI, Flores-Ortiz CM, et al. Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Plants. 2023; 12(1):150. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants12010150
Chicago/Turabian StyleSampayo-Maldonado, Salvador, Cesar A. Ordoñez-Salanueva, Efisio Mattana, Michael Way, Elena Castillo-Lorenzo, Patricia D. Dávila-Aranda, Rafael Lira-Saade, Oswaldo Téllez-Valdés, Norma I. Rodríguez-Arévalo, Cesar M. Flores-Ortiz, and et al. 2023. "Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios" Plants 12, no. 1: 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants12010150
APA StyleSampayo-Maldonado, S., Ordoñez-Salanueva, C. A., Mattana, E., Way, M., Castillo-Lorenzo, E., Dávila-Aranda, P. D., Lira-Saade, R., Téllez-Valdés, O., Rodríguez-Arévalo, N. I., Flores-Ortiz, C. M., & Ulian, T. (2023). Potential Distribution of Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico according to Its Optimal Thermal Range for Seed Germination under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Plants, 12(1), 150. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants12010150