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Article

Impact of Climate Change on the Bioclimatological Conditions Evolution of Peninsular and Balearic Spain During the 1953–2022 Period

by
Christian Lorente
1,*,
David Corell
1,
María José Estrela
2,
Juan Javier Miró
2 and
David Orgambides-García
1
1
Department of Earth Physics and Thermodynamics, Faculty of Physics, University of Valencia, Dr. Moliner Street 50, 46100 Burjassot, Spain
2
Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography and History, University of Valencia, Av. Blasco Ibáñez 28, 46010 Valencia, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Climate 2024, 12(11), 183; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110183
Submission received: 18 September 2024 / Revised: 5 November 2024 / Accepted: 6 November 2024 / Published: 8 November 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)
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Abstract

:
Climate change is altering the temperature and precipitation patterns in the Iberian Peninsula and on the Balearic Islands, with potential impacts on the distribution of plant communities. This study analyses the evolution of bioclimatic units in this region during the 1953–2022 period. Data from 3668 weather stations distributed throughout the study area were analysed. Two 35-year periods (1953–1987 and 1988–2022) were compared to assess changes in macrobioclimates and bioclimates. The results showed expansion of the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, whose total area increased by 6.93%, mainly at the expense of the Temperate macrobioclimate. For bioclimates, a trend towards more xeric and continental conditions was observed in the Mediterranean region, while temperate areas moved towards homogenisation of climate conditions. Likewise, two new bioclimates were detected, which indicate the emergence of new climate conditions. These results suggest a reorganisation of bioclimatic conditions, with particular implications for biodiversity in mountainous and transitional areas, where endemic species face higher risks of habitat loss. This study provides useful information for developing targeted conservation strategies, establishing a baseline for monitoring future changes and developing early warning systems for vulnerable ecosystems, thus supporting the design of climate-adapted conservation measures in the region studied.

1. Introduction

One of the main impacts of climate change is the alteration of temperature and precipitation patterns [1]. In this context, bioclimatology is key for understanding the changes observed in these two factors and their impacts on ecosystems [2,3,4]. In turn, bioclimato-logy makes the identification of the relation between climate and the distribution of floral communities possible, which are associated with specific bioclimatic units [5,6]. This allows the development of bioclimatic models, which have proven very useful for estimating the future responses of these species to climate change [7].
In Europe, the Iberian Peninsula is a “hotspot” of climate change, defined as a particularly vulnerable region to its impacts [8]. In this area, shifts in both precipitation patterns and temperature have been observed in recent decades.
In the Iberian Peninsula, temperatures have experienced a period of increase between the 1970s and the 1990s, followed by relative stagnation until the mid-2010s [9]. Changes in seasonal terms have not been homogenous, with some seasons experiencing significant changes later than others [10] but experiencing an overall larger increase in summer and late spring [11]. Regional analysis also confirms this trend [12,13,14].
In regards to precipitation, Spain has experienced an overall significant decrease in rainfall since 1950, most notably along the Mediterranean coast [15]. Precipitation patterns have changed significantly as well, with a significant increase in precipitation concentration occurring in the Ebro and Guadalquivir valleys as well as in parts of the centre of the country, resulting in more intense precipitations separated by longer droughts [16]. At a regional level, several studies have attested a significant decrease in precipitation throughout the recent decades. Major decreases have been noticed in areas such as the Ebro drainage basin [17], the Iberian System [18], the northern Baetic System [19] or the Jucar and Segura drainage basins [20].
The changes in temperatures and precipitation patterns in recent decades have generated considerable concern due to the potential impact on ecosystems and biodiversity [21]. These variables are the main factors that determine climate at a local scale, regulating the distribution of plant species across altitudinal and latitudinal regimes [2,5,6].
Climate change has profoundly impacted ecosystems worldwide [22,23], with severe effects in the Mediterranean region [24]. In the Iberian Peninsula, these changes have resulted in modifications in plant phenology, with earlier flowering times and extended growing seasons [25]; upward migration of species in mountain areas, leading to habitat compression and increased extinction risk for high-mountain flora [26,27,28]; and significant alterations in plant community composition, with thermophilic species expanding their range while cold-adapted species experience range contractions [29,30].
These impacts are evident in ecosystems such as mountain forests, where species like Fagus sylvatica, which has been shown to be sensitive to climate variations, are showing signs of decline at their distribution limits [31]. Researchers also have documented upward migrations of tree lines and modifications in alpine plant communities [32,33]. In Mediterranean shrublands, increasing aridity is favouring the expansion of drought-resistant species [30,34]. These changes in vegetation patterns could affect food webs, highlighting the complex nature of ecosystem responses to climate change, especially in high mountain ecosystems [35,36].
Given its climatic, orographic, and lithological diversity, the Iberian Peninsula contains unparalleled plant biodiversity on the European continent, as well as a large amount of endemic species to the Mediterranean region [37]. Some of these species have been shown to be sensitive to climatic variations [38,39]. Although geographically smaller, the Balearic Islands also feature high plant diversity due to isolation and the variety of microclimates present there [40]. In fact, their mountainous areas are considered areas of high biodiversity in the Mediterranean [41]. In recent years, these islands have experienced alterations in flowering periods and increasing pressure on endemic plant populations in mountainous areas [42], evidencing the impacts of climate change in this region.
In this context, bioclimatic indices are presented as fundamental tools for the analysis of changes associated with precipitation and temperature variables [2,3]. Of the most widely used bioclimatic indices in the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) context developed by Rivas-Martínez et al. [5], we find the Continentality Index (Ic) and the Ombrothermic Index (Io), among others. These indices define bioclimatic essential categorisations for understanding the spatial distribution of plant species [6,43].
According to Rivas-Martínez et al. [43], bioclimatic units can accurately predict floral composition and can therefore be used in biodiversity conservation studies and programmes. Bioclimates are quantitatively determined according to temperature and precipitation, which define indices like those mentioned above that in turn define and differentiate climatic categorisations. This provides a basis for studying the impacts of climate change on the biota and their spatial distribution over time [6,21].
The study of the evolution of bioclimatic units by using their constituent bioclimatic indices contributes to a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on plant communities, specifically in relation to the modification of their spatial extent at altitudinal and/or latitudinal levels [44].
This situation is of particular concern for the plant species that exist in isolated or vulnerable positions because their habitats may contract, which can lead to a stronger probability of local extinction [35].
In the last decade, numerous studies have been carried out on the bioclimatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula and at both regional [6,14,45,46,47] and national scales [43,48,49]. Several of these studies have already observed alterations in the extent of different peninsular bioclimatic units [14,48,49,50]. However, no study has been carried out to date with such a large and up-to-date amount of data as that employed in this study.
Given the complex climatology and orography of both the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, the use of a dense network of data points is crucial because this permits a more precise analysis and better estimation of possible changes in bioclimatic units due to climate change. It is particularly important on the Balearic Islands, where much fewer studies have dealt with bioclimatology.
The aim of this study is to analyse the evolution of first-order bioclimatic units of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, which correspond to macrobioclimates and bioclimates. The results of this study constitute an approximation of the impacts of climate change on the bioclimatological conditions of the Spanish peninsular region and the Balearic Islands at a general level by providing an analysis on how climate change affects the spatial distribution of the main bioclimatic units and their respective derived ecological impacts.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

The study covers peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands (Figure 1), with a total area of 498,884 km2. This region extends from latitudes 36° N to 43.5° N and from longitudes 9.5° W to 3° E and is characterised by geographical and climatic heterogeneity. This climatic and geographical diversity results in a wide variety of ecosystems, from Atlantic forests in the north to semi-desert areas in the southeast including Mediterranean forests, high mountain ecosystems, and island systems (on the Balearic Islands).
The Iberian Peninsula, located in the extreme southwest of Europe, is bounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the west and northwest, the Mediterranean Sea to the east and south, and the Pyrenees to the northeast. It has a complex orography, with major mountain ranges such as the Cantabrian Mountains, the Central System, the Iberian System, the Sierra Morena, and the Baetic System. Altitude varies from sea level to 3465 m at the Mulhacén peak. This altitudinal variation, combined with the influence of Atlantic and Mediterranean air masses, contributes significantly to the climatic diversity of the region. The main river systems, including the Ebro, the Douro, the Tagus, the Júcar, the Segura, the Guadiana, and the Guadalquivir, have shaped the landscape by creating wide alluvial plains.
The Balearic Islands are located in the Mediterranean Sea off the eastern coast of the peninsula mainland. This archipelago is made up of four main islands, as well as numerous smaller islands and islets. The Balearic Islands orography is varied, with the Sierra de Tramuntana mountain range standing out.

2.2. Methodology

In order to carry out the analysis of the bioclimatological conditions’ evolution in the study area, we used the classification developed by Rivas-Martínez et al. [5] in the WBCS. By integrating concepts of climatology, ecology, and biogeography, this classification system is a robust tool for the bioclimatic characterisation of territories. In the past decade, numerous studies have used this system to analyse changes in bioclimatic units over distinct time periods [3,4,48,49] and have provided valuable results on the evolution of bioclimatic parameters in different regions.
Within the scope of our study area, the application of the WBCS is particularly useful for the extremely high bioclimatic diversity in this region and for enabling assessments of climate impacts in relation to changes associated with their respective bioclimatic categories.
The WBCS is based on the premise that a close relation between climate factors and the distribution of plant communities exists. This relation is quantified through a hierarchical structure of different bioclimatic units. The basic bioclimatic units that constitute this classification are bioclimates. There are 28 bioclimates worldwide, each characterised by a unique combination of bioclimatic indices. These 28 bioclimates are framed within five different macrobioclimate types that represent the highest ranking typological unit in this system. The recognised macrobioclimates are Tropical, Boreal, Mediterranean, Temperate, and Polar. Each macrobioclimate is defined by not only specific thermal and pluvial characteristics but also by their latitudinal distribution.
To estimate its constituent bioclimatic units, the WBCS uses a series of climatic parameters that rely on monthly temperatures (maximum and minimum) and precipitation data. These parameters are essential for the subsequent calculation of bioclimatic indices. The table below presents the main climate parameters used for their descriptions and their respective calculation methods (Table 1).
From these parameters, various bioclimatic indices are calculated to define the bioclimatic units established by the WBCS. These indices are mathematical tools designed to quantify and classify the relations between climatic parameters and floral distribution. The following table shows the bioclimatic indices used to obtain the above-described bioclimatic units (Table 2).
Macrobioclimate determination is based mainly on latitude and summer Io (Ios2, Ios3 and Ios4), while bioclimates are established using the annual Io and the Ic.

2.3. Database

In order to conduct this study, the daily data on minimum and maximum temperatures (°C), and precipitation (mm) from a network of 3668 weather stations were used, with an average density of approximately one station per 136 km2. Of these stations, 3616 belong to the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and 52 to the Asociación Valenciana de Meteorología (AVAMET). The spatial distribution of the used stations can be seen in Figure 2.
Figure 2 is supplemented by Figure 3, which shows the altitudinal distribution of the stations. As shown, most stations are at an altitude below 1000 m.
The raw climate dataset used in this study was subjected to a quality control and homogenisation process to ensure its reliability and temporal continuity. All the stations used had at least seven complete years of original observations, which allowed the subsequent missing data filling and homogenisation processes to be validly applied, since the original data had numerous gaps.
Advanced statistical methods based on the NLPCA-EOF-QM (non-linear principal component analysis-empirical orthogonal functions-quantile mapping) gap filling method were applied to process the raw data. This procedure, described in detail by Miró et al. [51], allows missing data filling to be performed using the meteorological information from neighbouring stations and based on the fundamental variability components obtained by dimensionality reduction. The validation process of this methodology proved to be effective, resulting in low values for the Mean Absolute Error and Mean Squared Error, with correlations higher than 0.9, and a bias close to zero for precipitation. However, for temperatures, the best-performing data-filling process was VBPCA-QM, which is also described among those tested in Miró et al. [51]. In this case, the validation results were better, with errors always below 0.1 °C for the monthly and annual mean temperatures (both maximum and minimum) and below 0.2 °C on average for the daily temperature values.
To homogenise the completed climate data series, the ACMANT method (ACMANTv3.0-ACMANTP3day) developed by Domonkos [52,53] was applied. This step was necessary to eliminate any possible discontinuities or artificial jumps in the time series that could interfere with identifying real climate trends.

2.4. Data Processing and Graphical Representation

After the filling and homogenisation processes were applied to the raw data, files were generated with the daily records of the maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for the defined study period (1953–2022). These files also included the information corresponding to the identification code of each station, its altitude, and its respective coordinates (latitude, longitude). To calculate the bioclimatic parameters and indices, scripts were developed in Python (version 3.7.9). The incorporation of this software allowed calculations with the large volume of available data. Having obtained the results, they were represented in two different ways: statistically and spatially. For the statistical analysis, the percentages of occupancy of the corresponding desired bioclimatic units were calculated, and the results were represented in bar graphs to facilitate their respective visual comparison. The ArcGIS software (version 10.8) was used for the spatial representation of the results. All the calculation, analysis and representation processes were carried out in parallel for the two defined 35-year time periods (see below).

2.5. Study Period

The study period covered 70 years, from 1953 to 2022. This period was divided in two equivalent blocks of 35 years (1953–1987 and 1988–2022), which were compared to one another to analyse the evolution of the analysed bioclimatic units. The first period acted as a reference, while the second was used to analyse change(s).

3. Results

3.1. Macrobioclimates

The following macrobioclimates were identified in the set of stations distributed in the study area: the Temperate macrobioclimate and the Mediterranean macrobioclimate. Quantitatively, the distribution of the Mediterranean macrobioclimate has increased by 6.93% between both periods in 254 stations. In absolute terms, this macrobioclimate has expanded from 62.42% of stations (2290) during period 1 (1953–1987) to 69.35% (2544) during period 2 (1988–2022). Consequently, the Temperate macrobioclimate has undergone an equivalent contraction, and its percentage has lowered from 37.58% (1378 stations) to 30.65% (1124 stations). These changes in the occupancy percentage of the Mediterranean and Temperate macrobioclimates are illustrated in Figure 4.
Figure 5 shows their respective distributions in the study area between periods 1 (1953–1987) and 2 (1988–2022), as well as the respective changes produced between these two time periods. Broadly speaking, the Temperate macrobioclimate extends across the northern regions of the Iberian Peninsula, the Cantabrian Mountains, and the Pyrenees. It is also observed in areas of high-altitude mountain systems, such as certain areas of the Central System and Iberian System. The Mediterranean macrobioclimate dominates most of the south and west of the Iberian Peninsula, a large part of the central region of the Iberian Peninsula and the entire extension of the eastern Mediterranean coast, including the Balearic Islands. As Figure 5 shows, there have been changes in the distribution of these macrobioclimates between the two defined time periods: 1953–1987 and 1988–2022. There is a clear trend towards Mediterraneanisation, with a transition from a Temperate to a Mediterranean macrobioclimate. The most significant changes have occurred in the following areas: the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, the Cantabrian Mountains (mostly on the southern side), the Pyrenees (particularly in their eastern sector and in the transition areas towards the Ebro Valley), the Iberian System (where numerous points of change can be spotted, especially in its north-eastern sector), and the Central System (with scattered but significant changes throughout the mountain range).

3.2. Bioclimates

The following bioclimates were identified in the stations distributed in the study area: Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic (Mepo), Temperate Oceanic (Teoc), Mediterranean Xeric Oceanic (Mexo), Temperate Hyperoceanic (Teho), Temperate Xeric (Texe), Mediterranean Desertic Oceanic (Medo), Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental (Mepc), Mediterranean Xeric Continental (Mexc), Temperate Continental (Teco), and Mediterranean Desertic Continental (Medc). Bioclimates Temperate Continental (Teco) and Mediterranean Desertic Continental (Medc) were identified only during period 2 (1988–2022), and both are rare. The distributions of these bioclimates during periods 1 (1953–1987) and 2 (1988–2022) can be seen in Figure 6.
In the whole study area, the changes in bioclimate occupancy between periods 1 (1953–1987) and 2 (1988–2022) are as follows (Figure 7).
The most notable variations include a substantial decrease in Temperate Hyperoceanic (Teho) bioclimate (−4.36%) and Temperate Xeric (Texe) bioclimate (−3.35%), alongside significant increases in Mediterranean Xeric Oceanic (Mexo) (+3.03%), and Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental (Mepc) (+3.35%) bioclimates. Notably, two new bioclimates emerged during period 2: Temperate Continental (Teco) and Mediterranean Desertic Continental (Medc), albeit with minimal representation.
It is worth noting that when analysing the evolution of bioclimates in their respective macrobioclimates (Mediterranean and Temperate), even more pronounced changes were observed. For the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, the changes in bioclimate occupancy between periods 1 (1953–1987) and 2 (1988–2022) can be seen in Figure 8.
The most striking change was the substantial decrease in Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic (Mepo) bioclimate, which declined by 10.92% (from 86.07% to 75.15%). This reduction was primarily compensated by increases in other Mediterranean bioclimates, particularly Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental (Mepc) (+4.77%), Mediterranean Xeric Oceanic (Mexo) (+3.11%), and Mediterranean Xeric Continental (Mexc) (+2.51%).
For the Temperate macrobioclimate, the changes in bioclimate occupancy between periods 1 (1953–1987) and 2 (1988–2022) can be seen in Figure 9.
The Temperate Oceanic bioclimate (Teoc) showed a substantial increase of 18.63%, rising from 71.77% to 90.40%. This expansion occurred primarily at the expense of Temperate Hyperoceanic (Teho) and Temperate Xeric (Texe) bioclimates, which decreased by 10.46% and 8.34% respectively.
Overall, 982 stations noted changes in the presence of their initial bioclimates. These changes occurred either by a change from a Temperate bioclimate to a Mediterranean bioclimate or vice versa, which in turn implies a transition of the macrobioclimate, or by a swap between the bioclimates belonging to the same macrobioclimate (Mediterranean/Temperate).
The most substantial transformation was observed in the permutation among Mediterranean bioclimates, affecting 504 stations (13.74% of the total), whereas changes between Temperate bioclimates were recorded in 222 stations (6.05% of the total). Regarding transitions between macrobioclimates, a significant conversion from Temperate to Mediterranean bioclimates was documented in 255 stations (6.95% of the total); conversely, the inverse transition, from Mediterranean to Temperate, was virtually negligible, occurring in only one station (0.03% of the total). The spatial distribution of changes in bioclimates over the study period (1953–2022) can be seen in Figure 10.
It should be noted that the changes in the distribution of bioclimates were not uniform throughout the study area, as shown in Figure 10. The alteration of bioclimates occurred mainly in the transition zones between the Mediterranean and Temperate macrobioclimates and also in the mountainous, coastal, and inland areas of the peninsula. These areas may be particularly sensitive to climate change and require special attention in conservation and environmental management terms.
In the south-eastern areas of the peninsula, the Ebro Valley, and the Balearic Islands, changes in the bioclimates belonging to the same macrobioclimate were observed. In these areas, the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic bioclimate (Mepo) has mainly given way to the Mediterranean Xeric Oceanic bioclimate (Mexo), which reflects a trend towards more arid conditions. Likewise, an expansion of the Xeric Oceanic Mediterranean bioclimate (Mexo) has taken place in the southeast of the peninsula and on the Balearic Islands, together with the occasional appearance of the Desert Oceanic Mediterranean bioclimate (Medo) to the extreme southeast of the peninsula. In the inland peninsula, the presence of the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental bioclimate (Mepc) has increased.
In temperate regions, the Temperate Oceanic bioclimate (Teoc) now covers areas of the northwest Atlantic coast and a large part of the northern coast, where the Temperate Hyperoceanic (Teho) and Temperate Xeric (Texe) bioclimates were found during the first period (1953–1987).
In the foothill areas of the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees, and the Iberian System, a transition of bioclimates belonging to different macrobioclimates was found. In the latter, and during practically all the seasons when this type of permutation has taken place, a transition from a Temperate bioclimate to a Mediterranean bioclimate was detected. This transition was particularly evident in the mid-mountain areas and in the interior valleys of these mountain ranges, where bioclimates like Temperate Oceanic (Teoc) and Temperate Xeric (Texe) have been replaced with Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic (Mepo) or, in some cases, with Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental (Mepc).
Finally, the appearance of the Mediterranean Desertic Continental bioclimate (Medc) it is also notable, albeit in very limited areas, in small areas of the interior of the peninsula, as well as a Temperate Continental bioclimate (Teco) in specific areas in the north, mainly in mountainous areas.

4. Discussion

4.1. Macrobioclimates

The results obtained about macrobioclimates in the study area are consistent with those from previous bioclimatological studies, including the works of López et al. [48], Rivas-Martínez et al. [43], and Andrade and Contene [50]. It should be noted, however, that quantitative differences were observed for the percentages of the distributions of these two macrobioclimates. López et al. [48] documented 84% occupation for the Mediterranean macrobioclimate in peninsular Spain for the 1981–2010 period, with the Temperate macrobioclimate occupying the remaining 16%, and there was only a 2.5% percentage change between the time periods defined in their study (1951–1980 and 1981–2010). Rivas-Martínez et al. [43] pointed out that the Mediterranean macrobioclimate represented 79.65% of the territory, with the Temperate macrobioclimate occupying the remaining 20.35%. Andrade and Contene [50] obtained similar occupation for the 1961–1990 period for the peninsular region (76.5% Mediterranean and 23.5% Temperate).
These observed percentage differences in the distributions of macrobioclimates may be due to one of the following causes or more: (1) the total study area (certain studies include the Portuguese peninsular territory and/or do not include the Balearic region); (2) the time period defined to estimate occupancy percentages; or (3) the database used; (4) the irregular distributions of the stations used for this study, which may overrepresent the results in some parts of the study area because the density of stations in certain areas is higher.
The results obtained reveal a reconfiguration of the distribution of macrobioclimates, with an expansion of Mediterranean conditions at the expense of temperate ones. Specifically, the rate of change observed between the two periods defined between the Mediterranean and Temperate macrobioclimates was 6.93%. This change occurred mainly in the northwest of the peninsula, the Cantabrian Mountain Range (especially on its southern slope), the Pyrenees (especially in its eastern sector), the Iberian System (especially in its northeastern sector), and the Central System.
The observed rate of change is higher than that obtained by López et al. [48] (2.5%), which could suggest an intensification of the climatic alteration in the study area during the last decade. This hypothesis is also supported by climate projections, which suggest that the “Mediterraneanisation” of the Iberian Peninsula will continue to intensify as global warming accelerates [1,50]. Likewise, Lionello and Scarascia [54] state that the warming of the Mediterranean basin is occurring 20% faster than the global average. All these facts support the rapid expansion of the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, observed in this study.
From an ecological perspective, the expansion of the Mediterranean macrobioclimate implies additional pressure on plant and animal species that are adapted to cooler and wetter climates by forcing them to either migrate to higher altitudes or face possible local extinction because they may not be able to adapt quickly enough to the new climate conditions [27,35,44,55]. Cano-Ortiz et al. [3] observed that increasing Mediterranean conditions promote sclerophyllous flora expansion, potentially leading to vegetation landscape homogenisation and biodiversity reduction. Pausas and Millán [56] note that climate changes result in both “greening” through sclerophyll species expansion and “browning” from increased water stress. These transitions are particularly evident in ecotones, where temperate communities are being replaced by arid-adapted species [39], making these areas especially sensitive to climate change [57,58]. The Mediterranean expansion in formerly temperate regions indicates a progression towards hotter and drier conditions [59].
The contraction of the Temperate macrobioclimate could imply a reduction in suitable habitats for the species adapted to such climates. These species face dual challenges of habitat fragmentation and decreased ecological connectivity, threatening their associated communities’ long-term viability [60]. This situation is particularly critical in mountainous regions, where temperate species’ altitudinal migration options are already limited [44].

4.2. Bioclimates

The climate data analysis reveals the presence of 10 distinct bioclimates in the study area. These results are consistent with previous studies carried out in the study area, but some differences appear in the presence of certain bioclimates, and also in their occupation percentages. As indicated above, the explanation of these differences may rely on several factors, especially the inclusion of the Portuguese peninsular region. Despite these discrepancies, and to better analyse the evolution trend of the bioclimates over time, a table (Table 3) was prepared with the occupancy rates of bioclimates, which compares the obtained results to other relevant previous studies. These studies have used two defined study periods or more, except for the work of Rivas-Martínez et al. [43].
In all the analysed studies, the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic (Mepo) and Temperate Oceanic (Teoc) bioclimates were the dominant ones for being those with the highest occupation percentages. The other bioclimates constitute a small fraction that is no less relevant for this reason.
The evolution of bioclimates between periods 1 (1953–1987) and 2 (1988–2022) revealed significant changes in spatial distribution and predominance, both at general and macrobioclimatic levels. These shifts reflect underlying changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, providing evidence of climate change impacts in the study area.
In the study area on the whole, the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic bioclimate (Mepo) has remained dominant during both periods (1953–1987 and 1988–2022), but slightly decreased from 53.74% to 52.13% occupancy in our study. Although this reduction is modest in absolute terms, it represents a significant change given the large extent of this bioclimate in the study area. This reduction is consistent with the future projections made by Andrade and Contene [50]. However, these results contradict those obtained by López-Fernández et al. [48] and by López et al. [49] in their respective studies, who report a slight increase in the occupancy of this bioclimate between their respectively defined time periods (1951–1980 and 1981–2010 in both studies).
The second most extensive bioclimate, Oceanic Temperate (Teoc), has slightly increase from 26.96% to 27.70% in our study, which denotes stability in its overall distribution. Such stability also comes over in the studies by López-Fernández et al. [48] and by López et al. [49] However, their studies present a slightly decreasing trend. This trend is even more pronounced in the results obtained by Andrade and Contene [50], with a decrease of 8.38% between the first and the last period defined in their study (1961–1990 and 2041–2070).
In contrast to the modest changes in the dominant bioclimates, the less frequent bioclimates showed more dramatic changes. The Mediterranean Oceanic Mediterranean bioclimate (Mexo) experienced the most significant expansion, increasing from 7.85% to 10.88%, a trend observed in multiple studies [48,49,50]. This indicates a trend towards drier conditions, a hypothesis that is reinforced by the increase in the Mediterranean Oceanic Desert bioclimate (Medo), whose presence in our study increased from 0.41% to 0.79%. This increase in Medo was also reported by Andrade and Contene [50]; however, their forecasts suggest further growth, especially from mid-century onwards.
The temperate Hyperoceanic bioclimate (Teho) experienced the most drastic decrease, from 6.27% to 1.91%, indicating a significant loss of Hyperoceanic conditions, characterised by a strong maritime influence. This bioclimate features an extremely moderate climate (with very little daily and seasonal variation in temperature), mild winters and cool summers, and abundant and well-distributed precipitation throughout the year, along with consistently high atmospheric humidity [61]. This was also observed by López-Fernández et al. [48], López et al. [49] and Andrade and Contene [50].
A notable reduction for Temperate Xeric (Texe) was also found in our study (from 4.33% to 0.98%) which, together with the decrease in Temperate Hyperoceanic (Teho), suggests a general contraction of lesser Temperate bioclimates in favour of the dominant Temperate bioclimate (the Temperate Oceanic bioclimate (Teoc)). In fact, the presence of the Temperate Xeric (Texe) in the studies of López-Fernández et al. [48], Rivas-Martínez et al. [43] and Andrade and Contene [50] is null or minimal.
In contrast, a significantly increase was noted for the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental bioclimate (Mepc) from 0.38% to 3.74%, and for the Mediterranean Xeric Continental (Mexc), from 0.05% to 1.80%, which indicate a trend towards more continental conditions. This increase in continentality might be related to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation redistribution, as suggested by recent climate studies [62,63]. This trend has also been observed in the aforementioned studies. However, with the Mediterranean Xeric Continental bioclimate (Mexc), the results are less conclusive, because only Andrade and Contene [50] report a similar occupation a percentage to that in our study. In fact, Rivas-Martínez et al. [43] indicate that the occupancy of this bioclimate is very small (0.01%), and the respective studies of López-Fernández et al. [48] and López et al. [49] do not identify it.
Another noteworthy aspect was the appearance of two new bioclimates during period 2 (1988–2022) that were not present during period 1 (1953–1987) and have not been identified in other studies: the Mediterranean Desertic Continental (Medc) and the Temperate Continental (Teco). The former appeared with 0.03% occupancy and the latter was established with a presence of 0.05%. Although these percentages are low in absolute terms, their appearance is significant from a bioclimatic perspective for indicating the emergence of new climate conditions in certain areas of our study area. The emergence of these new bioclimates could, among other things, lead to the creation of new ecological niches or transition zones (ecotones), with possible implications for species distribution and adaptation, and may even represent new adaptation challenges for native species. This phenomenon underlines the capacity of climate change to create new environmental conditions that did not previously exist in the region.
In the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, the drop in the occupancy of the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic bioclimate (Mepo) stood out (from 86.07% to 75.15%), whose decrease was compensated by a rise in the occupancy percentage of the other minority Mediterranean bioclimates. Of them, the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental bioclimate (Mepo) showed the largest increase, which shifted from 0.61% to 5.39%. These results reinforce the hypothesis that the Mediterranean macrobioclimate is moving towards drier and more continental conditions and also to an increase in extreme aridity conditions, as reflected by the rise in “Mediterranean Desertic” bioclimates. This trend is consistent with the climate change projections reported for the region [50,64] and may have implications for water management, agriculture, and biodiversity conservation, among others [65].
Ecologically speaking, these changes in the distribution of Mediterranean bioclimates could have implications for the region’s ecosystems and biodiversity. For example, the decline in the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Oceanic (Mepo) to favour drier and more continental bioclimates suggests a possible transformation of Mediterranean landscapes, with consequences for flora, fauna, and ecosystem services. Likewise, the expansion of some bioclimates, such as the Mediterranean Xeric Oceanic (Mexo) and the Mediterranean Desertic Oceanic (Medo), could lead to progressive aridification of ecosystems. In addition, the increase in the Mediterranean Pluviseasonal Continental bioclimate (Mepo) could favour the species adapted to more marked thermal contrasts and seasonality.
In the Temperate macrobioclimate, the Temperate Oceanic (Teoc) substantially increased from 71.77% to 90.40% occupancy, which is a rise of 18.63 percentage points. As previously discussed, this increase has mainly been at the expense of the other Temperate bioclimates. The Temperate Hyperoceanic bioclimate (Teho) considerably diminished, from 16.69% to 6.23%, which indicates a significant loss of the more oceanic conditions. The Temperate Xeric bioclimate (Texe) lowered from 11.54% to 3.20%, which implies a decrease in temperate areas with a trend towards aridity.
This “homogenisation” of temperate climate conditions may have various ecological implications, especially in high biodiversity areas like mountainous areas [27,55]. The reduction in the Temperate Hyperoceanic bioclimate (Teho) could negatively affect the species adapted to high humidity and to low thermal amplitude conditions. The decrease in the Temperate Xeric bioclimate (Texe) could lead to an expansion of the species more adapted to moderate oceanic conditions. This change could favour certain forest species, such as Quercus petraea or Castanea sativa, which could expand their range in previously drier areas [57].
Finally, the expansion of the Temperate Oceanic bioclimate (Teoc) could also lead to the altitudinal migration of plant species. In fact, recent studies have documented the movement of plant communities to higher altitudes in response to climate change [33,57]. In the Iberian Peninsula context, this could result in the compression of the habitats of high mountain species, increasing their vulnerability [26,27,28,66].

5. Conclusions

The present study provides evidence of substantial bioclimatic changes in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands over the 1953–2022 period.
The most significant finding is the clear trend towards Mediterraneanization, as demonstrated by the expansion of the Mediterranean macrobioclimate at the expense of the Temperate macrobioclimate. This expansion has been particularly pronounced in climate transition zones, including the northwest of the peninsula, the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees, the Iberian System, and the Central System, areas that emerge as especially vulnerable to climate change.
The bioclimatic reconfiguration manifests differently across macrobioclimates, with Mediterranean regions showing increased aridity and Temperate zones experiencing a homogenisation of climatic conditions, along with a general trend towards more continental characteristics. Likewise, the emergence of two new bioclimates, Medc and Teco, albeit in limited areas, indicates the development of new climatic conditions not previously recorded in the region.
These bioclimatic shifts align with broader climate change patterns documented in previous studies, particularly regarding increasing temperatures and altered precipitation regimes in the Mediterranean basin. The implications of these changes extend beyond climatological considerations, presenting significant challenges for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. Particularly vulnerable are endemic species and communities in mountainous and transitional areas, where habitat compression and fragmentation pose substantial risks to ecological integrity.
The observed changes in bioclimatic patterns suggest the need for immediate and adaptive conservation strategies, especially in protected areas where shifting bioclimatic conditions may compromise their effectiveness in preserving target species and communities. From a practical perspective, these findings provide valuable insights for environmental management and conservation planning. They can inform the design of climate-adaptive protected areas, guide habitat restoration initiatives, and support species conservation programmes. The identification of particularly vulnerable areas offers opportunities for prioritizing conservation efforts and developing targeted adaptation strategies.
This study also establishes a baseline for monitoring future bioclimatic changes and can serve as a basis for the development of early warning systems for ecosystems at risk. Future research should focus on small-scale monitoring of transition zones, detailed assessments of species responses to bioclimatic changes, and the development of specific management protocols for new bioclimatic conditions.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, M.J.E., D.C., J.J.M., and C.L.; methodology, M.J.E., D.C., J.J.M., and C.L.; software, J.J.M. and C.L.; validation, M.J.E., D.C., J.J.M., and D.O.-G.; formal analysis, C.L.; investigation, C.L.; resources, C.L., D.C., and D.O.-G.; data curation, C.L., D.C., and D.O.-G.; writing—original draft preparation, C.L., D.C., and J.J.M.; writing—review and editing, C.L., M.J.E., D.C., J.J.M., and D.O.-G.; visualization, C.L., D.C., J.J.M., and D.O.-G.; supervision, M.J.E., D.C., and J.J.M.; project administration, M.J.E.; funding acquisition, M.J.E. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This study has been carried out within the framework of Research Projects PROMETEO/2021/016 of the Generalitat Valenciana and PID2020-118797RB-I00 (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) of the Ministry of Science and Innovation.

Data Availability Statement

Restrictions apply to the availability of these data. The datasets presented in this article are not readily available because the data were provided by Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) and Asociación Valenciana de Meteorología (AVAMET). Requests to access the datasets should be directed to AEMET and AVAMET.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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Figure 1. Study area. An elevation map of peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands is included, as well as its main mountain systems and rivers.
Figure 1. Study area. An elevation map of peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands is included, as well as its main mountain systems and rivers.
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Figure 2. Distribution of the weather stations used throughout the study area. The AEMET (blue dots) and AVAMET (red dots) stations can be distinguished.
Figure 2. Distribution of the weather stations used throughout the study area. The AEMET (blue dots) and AVAMET (red dots) stations can be distinguished.
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Figure 3. Histogram of the distribution of the stations used according to their respective altitudes.
Figure 3. Histogram of the distribution of the stations used according to their respective altitudes.
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Figure 4. Percentages of the Mediterranean (left bar) and Temperate (right bar) macrobioclimates in the study area during period 1 (1953–1987) and period 2 (1988–2022).
Figure 4. Percentages of the Mediterranean (left bar) and Temperate (right bar) macrobioclimates in the study area during period 1 (1953–1987) and period 2 (1988–2022).
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Figure 5. Spatial distribution of Mediterranean and Temperate macrobioclimates during period 1 (1953–1987) (top) and period 2 (1988–2022) (centre), as well as changes in their respective distributions during the study period (1953–2022) (bottom).
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of Mediterranean and Temperate macrobioclimates during period 1 (1953–1987) (top) and period 2 (1988–2022) (centre), as well as changes in their respective distributions during the study period (1953–2022) (bottom).
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Figure 6. Distributions of the Mediterranean and Temperate bioclimates during periods 1 (1953–1987) (top) and 2 (1988–2022) (bottom).
Figure 6. Distributions of the Mediterranean and Temperate bioclimates during periods 1 (1953–1987) (top) and 2 (1988–2022) (bottom).
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Figure 7. Percentage distributions of the Mediterranean and Temperate bioclimates in the stations distributed in the study area during periods 1 (1953–1987) (left bar) and 2 (1988–2022) (right bar), and their respective total percentages of change.
Figure 7. Percentage distributions of the Mediterranean and Temperate bioclimates in the stations distributed in the study area during periods 1 (1953–1987) (left bar) and 2 (1988–2022) (right bar), and their respective total percentages of change.
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Figure 8. Percentage distributions of Mediterranean bioclimates in their respective macrobioclimate during periods 1 (1953–1987) (left bar) and 2 (1988–2022) (right bar) and their respective total percentages of change.
Figure 8. Percentage distributions of Mediterranean bioclimates in their respective macrobioclimate during periods 1 (1953–1987) (left bar) and 2 (1988–2022) (right bar) and their respective total percentages of change.
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Figure 9. Percentage distributions of Temperate bioclimates in their respective macrobioclimate during periods 1 (1953–1987) (left bar) and 2 (1988–2022) (right bar) and their respective total percentages of change.
Figure 9. Percentage distributions of Temperate bioclimates in their respective macrobioclimate during periods 1 (1953–1987) (left bar) and 2 (1988–2022) (right bar) and their respective total percentages of change.
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Figure 10. Changes in bioclimate occupancy over the entire study period (1953–2022).
Figure 10. Changes in bioclimate occupancy over the entire study period (1953–2022).
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Table 1. Climate parameters required for calculation of the analysed bioclimatic indices, as well as their respective explanatory descriptions. Adapted from Rivas-Martínez et al. [5], pp. 5–6.
Table 1. Climate parameters required for calculation of the analysed bioclimatic indices, as well as their respective explanatory descriptions. Adapted from Rivas-Martínez et al. [5], pp. 5–6.
ParameterDescription
TmaxAverage temperature (in °C) of the warmest month of the year.
TminAverage temperature (in °C) of the coldest month of the year.
TpSum of the average temperature (in tenths of °C) of the months whose average temperature is above zero degrees Celsius. Tp = Σ Ti, for Ti > 0 °C.
TsSum of the average temperature (in tenths of °C) of the months of the summer quarter.
Ts2Sum of the average temperature (in tenths of °C) of the two hottest months of the summer quarter.
TmsSum of the average temperature (in tenths of °C) of the three months that make up the summer quarter plus the immediately preceding month. In the case of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, these months are May, June, July, and August.
PpPositive precipitation, equivalent to the sum of the precipitation (in mm) of the months with a mean temperature above 0 °C. Pp = Σ Pi, for Ti > 0 °C.
PsSummer precipitation, equivalent to the sum of the precipitation values (in mm) of the three months that make up the summer quarter. In the case of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, these months are June, July and August.
Ps2Sum of precipitation (in mm) for the two hottest months of the summer quarter.
PmsSum of the precipitation (in mm) of the three months that make up the summer quarter, plus the immediately preceding month. In the case of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, these months are May, June, July, and August.
Table 2. The employed bioclimatic indices and their respective expressions. Adapted from Rivas-Martínez et al. [5], pp. 5–6.
Table 2. The employed bioclimatic indices and their respective expressions. Adapted from Rivas-Martínez et al. [5], pp. 5–6.
Bioclimatic IndicesExpression
Simple Continentality Index (Ic)Ic = Tmax–Tmin
Annual Ombrothermic Index (Io)Io = (Pp/Tp) × 10
The Io of the two hottest months of the summer quarter (Ios2)Ios2 = (Ps2/Ts2) × 10
The Io of the summer quarter (Ios3)Ios3 = (Ps/Ts) × 10
The Io of the 4-month period resulting from adding the summer quarter and the month immediately preceding it (Ios4)Ios4 = (Pms/Tms) × 10
Table 3. Comparison of bioclimate occupancy rates in different studies. The numbers represent the studies used: (1) our study (1953–1987), (2) our study (1988–2022), (3) Rivas-Martínez et al. (study period not defined) [43], (4) López-Fernández et al. (1951–1980) [48], (5) López-Fernández et al. (1981–2010) [48], (6) López et al. (1951–1980) [49], (7) López et al. (1981–2010) [49], (8) Andrade and Contene (1961–1990) [50], (9) Andrade and Contene (1981–2010) [50], (10) Andrade and Contene (2011–2040) [50], and (11) Andrade and Contene (2041–2070) [50].
Table 3. Comparison of bioclimate occupancy rates in different studies. The numbers represent the studies used: (1) our study (1953–1987), (2) our study (1988–2022), (3) Rivas-Martínez et al. (study period not defined) [43], (4) López-Fernández et al. (1951–1980) [48], (5) López-Fernández et al. (1981–2010) [48], (6) López et al. (1951–1980) [49], (7) López et al. (1981–2010) [49], (8) Andrade and Contene (1961–1990) [50], (9) Andrade and Contene (1981–2010) [50], (10) Andrade and Contene (2011–2040) [50], and (11) Andrade and Contene (2041–2070) [50].
Bioclimates1 (1953–1987)2 (1988–2022)3 * 4 (1951–1980)5 (1981–2010)6 (1951–1980)7 (1981–2010)8 (1961–1990)9 (1981–2010)10 ** (2011–2040)11 ** (2041–2070)
Mepo53.7452.1374.2077.7179.4477.7079.4058.6058.2048.5047.00
Mexo7.8510.884.223.724.113.704.1016.5018.8030.3032.00
Mepc0.383.741.060.130.470.100.50---0.70
Mexc0.051.800.01-------2.30
Medo0.410.790.17----1.501.703.204.10
Medc-0.03---------
Teoc26.9627.7017.6614.9713.9315.0014.0022.7120.8017.6014.33
Teho6.271.912.523.482.003.502.000.600.500.400.20
Texe4.330.980.16-0.04--0.09---
Teco-0.05---------
* Rivas-Martínez et al. [43] do not define the time period used in their corresponding study. ** The data in Andrade and Contene [50] for the last two time periods of their study correspond to the projections made according to the RCP 4.5 climate change scenario.
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Lorente, C.; Corell, D.; Estrela, M.J.; Miró, J.J.; Orgambides-García, D. Impact of Climate Change on the Bioclimatological Conditions Evolution of Peninsular and Balearic Spain During the 1953–2022 Period. Climate 2024, 12, 183. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110183

AMA Style

Lorente C, Corell D, Estrela MJ, Miró JJ, Orgambides-García D. Impact of Climate Change on the Bioclimatological Conditions Evolution of Peninsular and Balearic Spain During the 1953–2022 Period. Climate. 2024; 12(11):183. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110183

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lorente, Christian, David Corell, María José Estrela, Juan Javier Miró, and David Orgambides-García. 2024. "Impact of Climate Change on the Bioclimatological Conditions Evolution of Peninsular and Balearic Spain During the 1953–2022 Period" Climate 12, no. 11: 183. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110183

APA Style

Lorente, C., Corell, D., Estrela, M. J., Miró, J. J., & Orgambides-García, D. (2024). Impact of Climate Change on the Bioclimatological Conditions Evolution of Peninsular and Balearic Spain During the 1953–2022 Period. Climate, 12(11), 183. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110183

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