What Predicts Long-Term Absenteeism, and Who Disappears from the Workforce When Enterprises Downsize?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Contributions
1.2. Definition of Absenteeism and Outline
2. Methodology
2.1. Data and Sample
2.2. Variables
3. Results
3.1. Results concerning the Proportion of Long-Term Absenteeism
3.2. Results concerning Average Wages and Average Age for Downsizing Enterprises
4. Discussion and Conclusions
4.1. A Discussion of the Findings and Their Contributions to the Literature
4.2. Managerial Implications
4.3. Limitations and Future Research
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
1 | However, the effect tends to turn negative for high values, according to the studies. |
2 | On the other hand, short-term absenteeism is not covered by the Government but by the employer, and such data are unavailable for this study. |
3 | The regression models we present shortly include fewer observations because we, e.g., include lagged variables. |
4 | In addition to Kripfganz, please also see Leszczensky and Wolbring (2019), particularly pp. 845–46, for a general explanation of the estimation technique. An example of the generic Stata code we apply is xi: xtdpdqml y L(0/1).(x1 x2) x3 L.x4… i.year, vce(r), where y is the dependent variable, x1, x2, x3, x4… independent variables, and i.year is year dummies. As a default, the code includes the lagged dependent variable and executes fixed-effects regression. |
5 | In addition to Roodman, please also see Li et al. (2021), particularly Equation (3) p. 343, for a general explanation of the estimation technique. The Stata code in Model C, Table 1, is xtabond2 L(0/2).y x1 x2 x3 x4 i.year, gmm(L2.y x1 x2 x3 x4, lag(1 .) collapse) two robust. y is the dependent variable, x1 average wages, x2 wage inequality, x3 is the proportion of female employees, x4 is full-time employees, and i.year is year dummies. |
6 | Comparing MLR and ABB, Leszczensky and Wolbring (2019) show that the regression coefficient may deviate, which is also the case in our models, but without altering any statistical conclusion. Moreover, according to them, including regressors at t and t−1 may falsely induce non-significant estimates when using ABB. |
7 | In unreported models, we replicated Models A and B, Table 2, by including observations where the number of full-time employees at year t was lower than that at year t−1 and where the number of full-time employees at year t−1 was lower than that at year t−2, respectively, but without altering any statistical conclusion. Following the same procedures, we also estimated wage inequality, the proportion of female employees, and average education as dependent variables in unreported models, but without reaching consistent empirical findings. |
8 | We cannot rule out that average wages at t reversely decrease employment at t, but an unreported ABB panel replication shows causality, as illustrated in Model A. Upon request, we can provide statistical details. |
9 | In an unreported model, we controlled for operating revenues at year t and t−1 adjusted to 2014 prices using Statistics Norway’s consumer price index inflator and log-transformed using the natural logarithm, but without altering any statistical conclusion. An alternative explanation to laying off high earners or letting them retire is that real wages are reduced among those still in the workforce at t−1. However, later in Model B, we observe similar findings concerning average age, which decreases at year t−1 but would otherwise increase if the employees were the same. Therefore, we also assume that a genuine interpretation is that high earners are laid off or retired at t−1. |
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Model A | Model B | Model C | |
---|---|---|---|
Dependent variable at t−1 | 0.155 *** (0.017) | 0.153 *** (0.017) | 0.190 * (0.077) |
Dependent variable at t−2 | 0.031 (0.021) | ||
Average wages at t | −1.14 *** (0.154) | −1.11 *** (0.144) | −1.62 *** (0.166) |
Average wages at t−1 | 0.283 † (0.145) | 0.273 † (0.143) | |
Wage inequality at t | 0.133 * (0.053) | 0.128 * (0.051) | 0.402 *** (0.080) |
Wage inequality at t−1 | −0.188 *** (0.053) | −0.186 *** (0.052) | |
Proportion of female employees at t | 0.231 *** (0.035) | 0.224 *** (0.033) | 0.366*** (0.068) |
Proportion of female employees at t−1 | −0.020 (0.033) | ||
Average age at t | 0.306 (0.271) | ||
Average age at t−1 | −0.797 ** (0.271) | −0.584 * (0.234) | |
Average education at t | −0.110 (0.280) | ||
Average education at t−1 | −0.432 (0.283) | −0.435 † (0.260) | |
Full-time employees at t | 0.218 *** (0.047) | 0.205 *** (0.047) | 0.241*** (0.050) |
Full-time employees at t−1 | 0.057 (0.037) | 0.071 † (0.037) | |
Year dummies included | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Wald χ2 | 197,064.1 *** | ||
Second-order z-value a/p-value | −0.22/0.823 | ||
Hansen J test of over-id./p-value | 24.6/0.216 | ||
Diff-in-Hansen (exl. group)/p-value | 16.5/0.350 | ||
Diff-in-Hansen (difference)/p-value | 8.13/0.149 | ||
Number of instruments | 34 | ||
N enterprise-year obs./enterprises | 18,343/4754 | 18,534/4809 | 19,712/5755 |
Min./avg./max. obs. per enterprise | 2/3.85/5 | 2/3.85/5 | 1/3.43/5 |
Model A | Model B | |
---|---|---|
Dependent variable | Average wages at t | Average age at t |
Dependent variable at t−1 | 0.669 *** (0.084) | 0.745 *** (0.057) |
Full-time empl. at t | −0.074 *** (0.014) | −0.064 *** (0.005) |
Full-time empl. at t−1 | 0.049 ** (0.017) | 0.044 *** (0.008) |
Year dummies included | Yes | Yes |
Full-time empl. at t < t−2 | Yes | Yes |
N enterprise-year obs./enterprises | 5283/1954 | 5283/1954 |
Min./avg./max. obs. per enterprise | 2/2.70/5 | 2/2.70/5 |
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Aarstad, J.; Kvitastein, O.A. What Predicts Long-Term Absenteeism, and Who Disappears from the Workforce When Enterprises Downsize? Economies 2024, 12, 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010013
Aarstad J, Kvitastein OA. What Predicts Long-Term Absenteeism, and Who Disappears from the Workforce When Enterprises Downsize? Economies. 2024; 12(1):13. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010013
Chicago/Turabian StyleAarstad, Jarle, and Olav Andreas Kvitastein. 2024. "What Predicts Long-Term Absenteeism, and Who Disappears from the Workforce When Enterprises Downsize?" Economies 12, no. 1: 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010013
APA StyleAarstad, J., & Kvitastein, O. A. (2024). What Predicts Long-Term Absenteeism, and Who Disappears from the Workforce When Enterprises Downsize? Economies, 12(1), 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12010013