1. Introduction
The exponential distribution has been extensively used in analyzing lifetime data due to its lack of memory property and its simple form. However, the exponential distribution with only a constant hazard rate shape is not able to fit data sets with different hazard shapes as increasing, decreasing, bathtub, or unimodal (upside down bathtub) shaped failure rates, often encountered in engineering and reliability, among others.
Recently, many authors have developed several generalizations of the exponential distribution to increase its flexibility. For example, the Marshall-Olkin exponential by Marshall and Olkin [
1], exponentiated exponential by Gupta and Kundu [
2], Harris extended exponential by Pinho et al. [
3], Kumaraswamy transmuted exponential by Afify et al. [
4], modified exponential by Rasekhi et al. [
5], odd exponentiated half-logistic exponential by Afify et al. [
6], Marshall-Olkin logistic-exponential by Mansoor et al. [
7], odd log-logistic Lindley exponential by Alizadeh et al. [
8], and Marshall-Olkin alpha power exponential by Nassar et al. [
9], among others.
In this paper, we study a new three-parameter extended odd Weibull exponential (EOWEx) distribution, which has several desirable properties including the following.
The EOWEx distribution is capable of modeling constant, decreasing, increasing, bathtub, upside down bathtub, and reversed-J hazard rates. Further, its density can be right-skewed, left-skewed, symmetrical and reversed-J shaped. Note that the bathtub and modified bathtub failure rates are very important in the reliability engineering context. The interesting point is that the EOWEx distribution, with three parameters, can have the bathtub and modified bathtub failure rates as, in general, most distributions used to model such data are complicated, and usually may include four or five parameters to obtain these failure rates.
It can be considered as a suitable distribution for fitting skewed data that may not be properly fitted by other extensions of the exponential distribution and can also be used in many problems in applied areas, such as medicine, engineering, survival analysis, and industrial reliability.
Four applications to real data from the medicine, engineering and reliability fields prove that the EOWEx model performs better than four other competing lifetime distributions, motivating its use in applied areas.
Its cumulative distribution function (CDF) and hazard rate function (HRF) have simple closed forms, therefore it can be utilized to analyze censored data sets.
Furthermore, we focus on eight different estimation procedures and study how these estimators of the EOWEx unknown parameters behave for several sample sizes and for several parameter combinations. We also develop a guideline for choosing the best estimation method to estimate the EOWEx parameters, which we think would be of interest to applied statisticians and reliability engineers. We consider different estimators called, the maximum likelihood estimators, least-squares and weighted least-squares estimators, percentiles estimators, Cramér-von-Mises estimators, maximum product of spacings estimators, Anderson-Darling estimators, and right-tail Anderson-Darling estimators. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess and compare the performance of these estimators.
The EOWEx distribution is constructed based on the
extended odd Weibull-G (ExOW-G) family proposed by Alizadeh et al. [
10]. Let
and
denote the survival function (SF) and probability density function (PDF) of a baseline model with parameter vector
, then the CDF of the EOW-G family has the form
The corresponding PDF of (
1) is defined by
where
and
are positive shape parameters. The random variable with PDF (
2) is denoted by
ExOW-G(
). When
, we have the Weibull-G family.
The HRF of the EOW-G family takes the form
where
is the baseline HRF. By inverting (
1), we obtain the quantile function (QF) of the ExOW-G family
where
is the QF of the baseline G distribution and
.
The rest of this article is organized as follows. In
Section 2, we define the proposed EOWEx distribution. In
Section 3, we derive a linear representation for the EOWEx density function and obtain some of its properties. Eight estimation methods to estimate the EOWEx parameters are presented in
Section 4. In
Section 5, we perform a simulation study to compare the performance of these estimation methods. Four real data applications are used to prove the usefulness of the EOWEx distribution in
Section 6. Finally, we conclude the paper by some remarks in
Section 7.
2. The EOWEx Distribution
In this section, we define the three-parameter EOWEx model. The PDF and CDF of the Ex distribution are
and
,
,
. By inserting the CDF of the Ex model in (
1), we obtain the CDF of the EOWEx distribution
The corresponding PDF follows, by inserting the PDF and CDF of the Ex distribution in (
2), as
Thereforeforth, a random variable with PDF (
6) is denoted by
EOWEx(
. The EOWEx model reduces to the two-parameter Weibull Ex distribution for
.
The HRF and QF of the EOWEx distribution are given, respectively, by
and
Figure 1 and
Figure 2 display some possible shapes of the PDF and HRF of the EOWEx distribution. These figures indicate that the PDF of the EOWEx distribution can be left-skewed, right-skewed, reversed-J shaped, and symmetric. Further, the HRF of the EOWEx distribution has some important shapes, including constant, increasing, decreasing, upside down bathtub, reversed bathtub, reversed-J shaped, which are desirable characteristics for a lifetime distribution. It can be seen, from the application section, that the EOWEx distribution allows greater flexibility and can be used to model skewed data and can be widely applied in different areas such as reliability, biomedical studies, biology, engineering, and survival analysis.
3. Some Properties
In this section, we obtain some properties of the EOWEx distribution including the linear representation, moments, moment generating function (MGF), mean residual life, mean inactivity time, and order statistics.
3.1. Linear Representation
We provide a useful linear representation for the EOWEx density. Alizadeh et al. [
10] derived a mixture representation of the EOW-G density as follows,
where
and
is the Exp-G density with positive power parameter
. Using the PDF and CDF of the Ex distribution, the last equation can be rewritten as
Applying the binomial expansion to
, the above equation reduces to
Equation (
7) can be expressed as
where
and
denotes the Ex density with scale parameter
. Then, the EOWEx PDF can be expressed as a single linear combination of Ex densities. Let
Z be a random variable having the Ex distribution with PDF
,
,
. Then, the
rth ordinary and incomplete moments, and MGF of
Z are
respectively, where
is the gamma function and
is the lower incomplete gamma function.
3.2. Moments and MGF
The
rth moment of
X follows simply from Equation (
8) as
Table 1 displays the numerical values of the mean (
), variance (
), skewness (
), and kurtosis (
) of the EOWEx distribution for
and some selected values of
and
. The values in
Table 1 illustrate that the skewness of the EOWEx distribution is ranging in the interval (
,
), whereas the spread of its kurtosis is much larger ranging from
to
. Furthermore, the EOWEx distribution can be left skewed or right skewed, and it can be leptokurtic (
). Therefore, the EOWEx distribution can be used to model the skewed data due to its flexibility.
The
rth incomplete moment of
X can be obtained from (
8) as
The first incomplete moment of
X follows from the last equation as
Based on Equation (
8), the MGF of the EOWEx distribution takes the form
3.3. Mean Residual Life and Mean Inactivity Time
The mean residual life (MRL) (also known as the life expectancy at age t) represents the expected additional life length for a unit, which is alive at age t and is defined by
The MRL of
X is
where
is given by (
10) and
is the SF of the EOWEx distribution. Inserting Equation (
10) in (
11), we have
The mean inactivity time (MIT) is defined by (for ) and it represents the waiting time elapsed since the failure of an item on condition that this failure had occurred in .
Combining Equations (
10) and (
12), the MIT of
X is as follows,
3.4. Order Statistics
Order statistics are important in many areas of statistical theory and practice. According to Alizadeh et al. [
10], the PDF of
ith order statistic of the EOW-G class,
(for
), can be expressed as
Here,
is the exponentiated exponential density with power parameter
and
Let
be a random sample from the EOWEx model and let
be the associated order statistics. The PDF of
ith order statistic reduces to
Applying the binomial series, the last equation becomes
where
Equation (
14) means that the PDF of EOWEx order statistics is a mixture of Ex densities with scale parameter
. Therefore, some of their mathematical properties are obtained from those of the Ex distribution. For example, the
qth moments of
is
4. Estimation Methods
In this section, we study the estimation problem of the EOWEx parameters using eight different estimation methods called: the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), least squares estimators (LSEs), weighted least-squares estimators (WLSEs), maximum product of spacing estimators (MPSEs), percentiles estimators (PCEs), Cramér-von Mises estimators (CMEs), Anderson-Darling estimators (ADEs), and right-tail Anderson-Darling estimators (RTADEs).
4.1. Maximum Likelihood Method
Let
be a random sample from the EOWEx distribution with parameters
, and
. The log-likelihood function has the form
where
. The MLEs of
,
and
can be obtained by maximizing the last equation with respect to
,
and
, or by solving the following nonlinear equations,
and
The R (optim function), Ox program (sub-routine MaxBFGS), SAS (PROCNLMIXED), Mathcad program, or Newton–Rapshon method can be used to maximize the log-likelihood function to obtain the MLEs. The log-likelihood is maximized using a wide range of starting values. The starting values were taken to correspond to all combinations of the model parameters, where
= 0.1, 0.5, …, 10,
= 0.1, 0.5, …, 10 and
= 0.1, 0.5, …, 10. The call to optim converged about 98 percent of the time. The maximum likelihood solution was unique, when the calls to optim did converge. The elements of the observed information matrix are given in explicit expressions as follows,
and
4.2. Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares Methods
The least squares (LS) and weighted least square (WLS) methods are used to estimate the parameters of the beta distribution (Swain et al. [
11]). Let
be the sample order statistics of size
n from the EOWEx distribution; therefore, the LS estimators (LSEs) and WLS estimators (WLSEs) of the EOWEx parameters
,
and
can be obtained by minimizing
with respect to
,
, and
, where
in case of LSEs and
in case of WLSEs. Furthermore, the LSEs and WLSEs follow by solving the nonlinear equations
where
4.3. Maximum Product of Spacings Method
The maximum product of spacings (MPS) method is used to estimate the parameters of continuous univariate models as an alternative to the ML method (Cheng and Amin, [
12,
13]). The uniform spacings of a random sample of size
n from the EOWEx distribution can be defined by
where
denotes to the uniform spacings,
,
and
. The MPS estimators (MPSEs) of the EOWEx parameters can be obtained by maximizing
with respect to
,
, and
. Further, the MPSEs of the EOWEx parameters can also be obtained by solving
where
, (for
) is defined by (
15).
4.4. Percentile Method
Here, we use the percentile method (Kao, [
14]) to estimate the unknown parameters of the EOWEx distribution by equating the sample percentile points with the population percentile points. Let
be an unbiased estimator of
. Then, the percentile estimators (PCEs) of the EOWEx parameters are obtained by minimizing the following function with respect to
,
, and
,
4.5. Cramér-von-Mises Method
The Cramér-von-Mises estimators (CVMEs) (Cramér [
15]; von Mises [
16]) can be obtained based on the difference between the estimates of the CDF and the empirical distribution function (Luceño, [
17]). The CVMEs of the EOWEx parameters
,
and
are obtained by minimizing the following function with respect to
,
, and
,
Further, the CVMEs follow by solving the nonlinear equations
where
, (for
) is defined by Equation (
15).
4.6. Anderson-Darling and Right-Tail Anderson-Darling Methods
The Anderson-Darling estimators (ADEs) are another type of minimum distance estimators. The ADEs of the EOWEx parameters are obtained by minimizing
with respect to
,
, and
. The ADEs can also be obtained by solving the nonlinear equations
where
, (for
) is defined by (
15). The right-tail Anderson-Darling estimators (RTADEs) of the EOWEx parameters
,
and
are obtained by minimizing the following function with respect to
,
and
,
5. Simulation Results
In this section, the performance of eight different estimators of the EOWEx parameters is assessed by a simulation study. We consider different sample sizes , 50, for different parameters values , , , , and , . We generate random samples from EOWEx distribution. For each estimate, we obtain the average values of the estimates (AEs) and their corresponding mean squares error (MSEs).
The performance of different estimators are evaluated in terms of MSEs, i.e., the most efficient estimation method will be the one whose MSEs values are closer to zero. The simulation results are obtained via the R software.
Table 2,
Table 3 and
Table 4 show the AEs and MSEs (in parentheses) of the MLEs, LSEs, WLSEs, MPSEs, PCEs, CVMEs, ADEs, and RTADEs. Further, the AEs based on all estimation methods tend to the true parameter values, as the sample size increase in all cases, which indicates that all estimators are asymptotically unbiased. The figures in these tables means that MLEs, LSEs, WLSEs, MPSEs, PCEs, CVMEs, ADEs, and RTADEs perform very well, in terms of MSEs, for estimating the EOWEx parameters.
6. Applications in Medicine, Engineering, and Reliability
In this section, the EOWEx distribution is fitted to four data sets from fields of medicine, engineering, and reliability. The EOWEx model is compared with other some competitive models called, the exponentiated exponential (EEx) (Gupta and Kundu, [
2]), beta exponential (BEx) (Nadarajah and Kotz, [
18]), alpha power exponential (APEx) (Mahdavi and Kundu, [
19]), and exponential (Ex) distributions. The densities of these models are given by
EEx:
BEx:
MOEx:
APEx:
The fit of these distributions is evaluated using some measures including Cramér-von Mises (), Anderson-Darling (), and Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) statistics with its p-value.
The first set of data was studied by Lee and Wang [
20], and it represents the remission times (in months) of a random sample of 128 bladder cancer patients. These data were analyzed by Sen et al. [
21], Afify et al. [
22], and Mansour et al. [
23]. The second set of data was studied by Kundu and Raqab [
24], and it represents the gauge lengths of 20 mm of a sample of 74 observations. This data set was analyzed by Afify et al. [
25] and Afify et al. [
26]. The third set of data consists of the failure times of 20 mechanical components (Murthy et al. [
27]). The fourth set of data refers to breaking stress of carbon fibres (in Gba) and it consists of 100 observations (Nichols and Padgett, [
28]). These data were analyzed by Afify et al. [
29].
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7 and
Table 8 provide the values of
,
, and KS as well as the
p-value for the models fitted to the four data sets, respectively. Further,
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7 and
Table 8 display the MLEs and standard errors (SEs) (appear in parentheses) of the parameters of the EOWEx, EEx, BEx, APEx, and Ex models. In
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7 and
Table 8, we compare the fits of the EOWEx model with the EEx, BEx, APEx, and Ex models. The figures in these tables indicate that the EOWEx distribution has the lowest values of
,
, KS and largest
p-value, among all fitted models. The fitted EOWEx PDF, CDF, SF, and P–P plots of the four data sets are displayed in
Figure 3 and
Figure 4, respectively.
Furthermore, we use the eight estimation methods discussed in
Section 4 to estimate the EOWEx parameters.
Table 9,
Table 10,
Table 11 and
Table 12 display the estimates of the EOWEx parameters using these estimation methods and the numerical values of KS and its
p-value for the four data sets, respectively. Based on the values of KS and
p-value, in
Table 9,
Table 10,
Table 11 and
Table 12, the LSEs is recommended to estimate the EOWEx parameters for cancer data, failure times data, and breaking stress of carbon fibers data, whereas the MLEs is recommended to estimate the EOWEx parameters for gauge lengths data. However, all estimation methods perform very well for the four data sets. The P–P plots of the EOWEx distribution using the four best estimation methods are displayed in
Figure 5 and
Figure 6, for the four data sets, respectively.
7. Concluding Remarks
In this paper, we propose the three-parameter extended odd Weibull exponential (EOWEx) distribution. The EOWEx density is a linear combination of exponential densities. Some of its mathematical properties are obtained. The EOWEx parameters are estimated by eight different estimation methods called, MLEs, LSEs, WLSEs, MPSEs, PCEs, CVMES, ADEs, and RTADEs. An extensive simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of these different estimators to identify the best performing estimators. The simulation results reveal that all estimators perform very well in terms of their mean square errors. Four real data applications are used to prove the EOWEx flexibility and potentiality. These applications show that the EOWEx model can yield better fits than some other existing extensions of the exponential distribution. We expect the utility of the newly proposed model in several fields such as reliability, medicine, engineering, and life testing.