A Multidisciplinary Review into the Evolution of Risk Concepts and Their Assessment Methods
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- Mitigate the tendency to view and assess risk without considering its context;
- Clarify the reasons why risk is understood and assessed differently across disciplines;
- Shed light on the intellectual origins of current approaches to risk;
- Provide a foundation for future interdisciplinary collaboration.
2. The Review Methodology
3. Historical Development of Risk Studies
3.1. Mathematics
3.2. Economics
3.3. Engineering
3.4. Medicine
3.5. Law
3.6. Anthropology
3.7. Psychology
3.8. Sociology
3.9. Philosophy
4. Definitions and Interpretations of Risk
4.1. Economics and Decision Sciences
4.2. Engineering and Science
4.3. Social Sciences
4.4. Philosophy
5. Risk Assessment Methods
5.1. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
5.2. Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
5.3. Psychometric Risk Paradigm
5.4. Others
6. Discussion
6.1. Current Research Status
- How can public concerns be effectively measured or assessed, and in what ways do these concerns influence policymaking?
- What methods can be employed to rank risks while taking into account non-rational factors?
- How should decisions be made when conflicts arise between technical risk analysis assessments of public concerns?
6.2. Recommendations for Future Works
6.2.1. Expanding Risk Dimensions for More Informed Decision Making
6.2.2. Need Integrated Approaches to Risk Assessment
6.2.3. Lack of Normative Procedures of Stakeholder Involvement in Risk Management
7. Conclusions
- There are wide variations and even competencies between and within disciplines regarding the notion of risk. However, many of the contradictive perspectives between the concept of risk are due to different standpoints. From a holistic point of view, the social science approach extends the concept of risk. The concept of risk in modern risk science has a deep technical background that emphasizes the scientific nature of risk. However, risk resulting from a technical system is not isolated and may bring indirect impacts to the broader social system. Risk can not only be identified through scientific methods but also constructed from social activities.
- The concept of risk has never evolved in isolation; its development has been shaped by the integration of theories from various disciplines. For instance, early probability theory in mathematics has long served as the foundation for quantitative risk assessment. In recent years, more and more risk management studies tried to integrate “hard” and “soft” approaches and provide meaningful results. However, a normative procedural integrated risk management framework still needs to be explored.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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---|---|---|---|
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[27] | 1921 | Risk is objective uncertainty. | “Risk, uncertainty and profit” |
[75] | 1944 | Risk is expected loss. | The Quarterly Journal of Economics |
[76] | 1953 | Risk is the variance of the probability distribution over the utilities of all possible consequences. | Econometrica |
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[78] | 1977 | Risk is the variance or dispersion of outcomes. | Journal of Accounting Research |
[79] | 1981 | A function of the probability of loss and the distribution of losses. | Theory and Decision |
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[50] | 1982 | Risks are the dangers that societies define as troublesome. | Risk Analysis |
[81] | 1992 | A systematic way of dealing with hazards and insecurities induced and introduced by modernization itself. | Theory, Culture & Society |
[82] | 1998 | Risk is the relationship of responsibility for harms for which the action of some person was a condition. | RISK: Health, Safety & Environment |
[83] | 1998 | Risk is a situation or event where something of human value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain. | Journal of Risk Research |
[84] | 2001 | The statistical probability that an undesirable event—disease or death—may strike. | Scandinavian Journal of Primary Health Care |
[85] | 2001 | Risk as feelings. | Psychological Bulletin |
[86] | 2002 | RISK = Replaces Incomplete Scientific Knowledge. | Toxicology |
[87] | 2002 | Risk has two components: the extent of the damage and the probability or likelihood that such damage will occur. | Safety Science |
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[89] | 2003 | What is to be considered a “risk” depends entirely on cultural settings and assumptions; risks are culturally defined and selected. | Ethnos |
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[94] | 2019 | Risk = reality + objectives | Sustainability |
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Risk Assessment Method | Advantages | Limitations | Main Application Field |
---|---|---|---|
QRA | Help understand real damage and probabilities; Free from subject bias. | Neglect contextual issues; Data scarcity. | Engineering, environmental science, chemical engineering, energy, earth and planet science. |
MCDA | Enrichment of risk assessment process; Simplicity; Transparent. | Results can be manipulated; Not suitable for time-sensitive situations; The simple algorithm may result in misleading results. | Environmental science, public policy, urban planning, energy management. |
Psychometric risk paradigm | Understand public’s concerns. | Public attitudes are prejudiced. | Social sciences, medicine, psychology. |
Ad-hoc approach: Risk assessment framework (RAF) Person-Centered Risk Assessment Framework (PCRSF) | Comprehensiveness; Empowerment; Enhance risk awareness; Transparency. | Evaluation of these approaches are limited; Mixed information is not integrated well. | Medicine, nursing. |
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Xu, Y.; Reniers, G.; Yang, M. A Multidisciplinary Review into the Evolution of Risk Concepts and Their Assessment Methods. Processes 2024, 12, 2449. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr12112449
Xu Y, Reniers G, Yang M. A Multidisciplinary Review into the Evolution of Risk Concepts and Their Assessment Methods. Processes. 2024; 12(11):2449. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr12112449
Chicago/Turabian StyleXu, Yuanyuan, Genserik Reniers, and Ming Yang. 2024. "A Multidisciplinary Review into the Evolution of Risk Concepts and Their Assessment Methods" Processes 12, no. 11: 2449. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr12112449
APA StyleXu, Y., Reniers, G., & Yang, M. (2024). A Multidisciplinary Review into the Evolution of Risk Concepts and Their Assessment Methods. Processes, 12(11), 2449. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr12112449