In the present research, firstly, changes in air quality in Jinan City during 2014–2021 were analyzed. Secondly, the causes of air quality changes were clarified. Thirdly, changes in air quality between the COVID and the post-COVID epoch in Jinan City were analyzed and discussed. At last, seasonal and monthly variations of air quality were analyzed.
3.2. The Association between the Air Quality in Jinan City and Influencing Factors
The changes in air quality are chiefly affected by natural conditions and socio-economic conditions. With the implementation of the policies in Jinan, obvious declines in the six air pollutant concentrations and AQI values emerged from 2014 to 2021.
The related coefficients (R) between air quality, meteorological factors, and socio-economic factors were comparatively good (
Table 2). On the annual time scale, from 2014 to 2021, the sample size (N) was eight. Air quality (AQI, PM
10, SO
2, PM
2.5, CO, and NO
2 concentrations) was positively correlated with MAP, AAT, ARH, and SH and was negatively correlated with maximum wind speed (MWS) and precipitation (PR). However, except for precipitation (PR), the correlations between O
3 concentration and meteorological factors were the opposite of those of air quality. High temperature, long sunshine, low humidity, low cloud cover, and low wind speed are conducive to ozone generation. However, low pressure and high humidity are conducive to the formation of PM
2.5. Meteorological factors have a conspicuous influence on the change in air quality. Air pollution index (API) in Xi’an and Lanzhou was strongly related to average temperature, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature [
39]. PM
10, SO
2, PM
2.5, and CO concentrations are mainly affected by dew point temperature and air pressure, but O
3 and NO
2 concentrations are mainly affected by air temperature and boundary layer height, respectively [
40].
On the daily time scale, from 2014 to 2021, the sample size (N) was 2922. Air quality (AQI, PM10, SO2, PM2.5, CO, and NO2 concentrations) was positively correlated with MAP and negatively correlated with AAT, maximum wind speed (MWS), and precipitation (PR). However, except for precipitation (PR), the correlations between O3 concentration and meteorological factors were the opposite of those of air quality. ARH was positively correlated with AQI and PM2.5 and CO concentrations and was negatively correlated with PM10, SO2, O3, and NO2 concentrations. SH was positively correlated with PM10, SO2, NO2, and O3 concentrations and was negatively correlated with AQI and PM2.5 and CO concentrations.
Air pollutant emissions affect air quality. Air quality was positively correlated with SDE, NOE, and PE. The reduction of NOx from 2013 to 2017 helped to control the total production of O
3 in China [
41].
Studying the relationship between the socio-economic system and air quality will help China achieve the goal of sustainable development. Air quality was positively correlated with ECPGDP and negatively correlated with GDPPC and PO. The correlations between AQI and ECPGDP were the best (R = 0.943). From 2014 to 2020, cleaner production and energy consumption control contributed to the largest reduction of PM
2.5 concentration in China [
42]. The impact of GDPPC on haze pollution confirms the relationship of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) [
43].
Social economy also affects the emission of air pollutants. GDP was correlated well with annual emissions of ambient species (PM
2.5, PM
10, and SO
2). GDP per capita correlated with annual emissions of ambient species (PM
2.5, PM
10, and SO
2) in 11 cities around the Bohai Sea. For most cities, the emission and energy use per GDP decreased with the enhancements of economic growth, following the environmental Kuznets curves [
44].
The correlations between the six air pollutant concentrations and AQI values are shown in
Table 3.
On the annual time scale, from 2014 to 2021, the sample size (N) was eight. The correlation (R) between AQI and PM
2.5 concentration was the best (R = 0.977), followed by PM
10 concentration (R = 0.970). These results indicated that PM
2.5 and PM
10 concentrations were the major factors affecting AQI. The correlation between PM
10 and PM
2.5 concentrations was the best (R = 0.977) and the ratio of PM
2.5 to PM
10 was 52.3%, indicating that PM
2.5 was a large proportion of PM
10. The strong relationship between PM
2.5 and NO
2 concentrations (R = 0.923) implies that NO
2 plays a significant effect in the formation of PM
2.5. However, the correlations between O
3 and PM
10, SO
2, PM
2.5, NO
2, and CO concentrations were negative. The good relationship between O
3 and NO
2 concentrations (R = −0.455) suggested that NO
2 is an important factor in the formation of O
3. Therefore, NO
2 plays a very important effect in the formation of PM
2.5 and O
3. The weak negative relationship between O
3 and PM
2.5 concentrations indicates the complex interaction between O
3 and PM
2.5, and the reasons behind it need to be further studied. The association between PM
2.5 and O
3 concentrations is influenced by the atmospheric oxidizing capacity magnitude [
45].
On the daily time scale, from 2014 to 2021, the sample size (N) was 2922. The correlation (R) between AQI and PM10 concentration was the best (R = 0.768), followed by PM2.5 concentration (R = 0.765). The correlation between PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations was the best (R = 0.856). Nevertheless, the correlations between O3 and PM10, SO2, PM2.5, NO2, and CO concentrations were negative. The trend of the correlations each year was similar to those from 2014 to 2021. PM always was the major factor affecting AQI each year.
Atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC) refers to the oxidation capacity of atmospheric chemical processes in primary pollutants, generally expressed by the concentration of oxidants. The main atmospheric oxidants are HO
2, OH, and NO
3 free radicals. AOC is closely related to the generation of secondary pollutants. In recent years, the decrease in PM
2.5 concentration and the increase in O
3 concentration in China were caused by the increase in AOC. In particular, OH free radicals can react with VOCs to generate peroxy radicals (such as HO
2), which continue to react with NO to generate NO
2 and participate in the generation of O
3 after photolysis, leading to the increase in O
3 concentration. On the other hand, the concentration of free radicals such as OH increases, which increases the oxidation rate of SO
2, NOx, and VOCs and accelerates the gas phase formation of sulfate and nitrate [
46].
As an important oxidant, O
3 can affect the generation of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium salt, and secondary organic aerosol in PM
2.5. The reduction of PM
2.5 concentration leads to an increase in ozone. PM
2.5 inhibits the secondary chemical formation of ozone through the heterogeneous absorption of HO
2 free radicals and NOx. The inhibition of PM
2.5 on ozone will also cause ozone generation to be more affected by VOC emissions, that is, the sensitivity of ozone to NOx emission reduction will be reduced [
47].
3.3. Seasonal Changes in Air Quality in Jinan City during 2014–2021
The air quality in Jinan also has significant characteristics due to seasonal variations. As shown in
Figure 2, the seasonal average concentrations of PM
10, SO
2, PM
2.5, NO
2, and CO were the lowest in summer and were the highest in winter, while the trends of O
3 concentration and the other five pollutants were obviously different, the highest being in summer and the lowest in winter. Air quality in the four seasons of 2021 was obviously better than that in 2014. Because of heating in winter, the air pollutant emissions in winter were apparently higher than that in other three seasons, which is the fundamental reason for the frequent appearance of serious pollution in Jinan in winter. The high concentrations of NOx and VOCs in the atmosphere, resulting in enhanced atmospheric oxidation, are the critical elements for fast growth of secondary PM
2.5 with heavy pollution in winter. Unfavorable meteorological conditions cause a prominent reduction in regional environmental capacity, which is a necessary condition for the formation of heavily polluted weather in winter. Regional transmission has a conspicuous effect on PM
2.5 concentration in winter. In contrast to the negative impact on PM
2.5 concentration in summer, higher humidity is conducive to the formation of PM
2.5 in winter because the hygroscopicity of particles increases [
48]. In summer, the temperature often rises to more than 32 °C and the sunlight is sufficient, leading to more intense VOC emissions from biological sources [
49]. Higher temperature can improve the formation of O
3 by accelerating the photochemical reaction rates and boosting the biological emission of VOCs [
50]. Therefore, air temperature and sunshine play a leading role in the O
3 concentration in Jinan in summer.
As could be seen from
Figure 2a, the values in Jinan City in spring of 2021 were 13.3%, 62.0%, 69.9%, 82.8%, 39.7%, 29.2%, and 6.0% respectively lower than those in 2014. Air quality in Jinan City in spring of 2021 was obviously better than that in 2014. Similarly, for summer (
Figure 2b), the values in 2021 were 16.0%, 63.5%, 59.6%, 81.3%, 49.6%, 36.6%, and 6.2% respectively lower than those in 2014. Air quality in summer of 2021 was obviously better than that in 2014. For autumn (
Figure 2c), the values in 2021 were 38.2%, 55.0%, 54.8%, 82.6%, 37.5%, 37.5%, and −1.1% respectively lower than those in 2014. Air quality in Jinan City in autumn of 2021 was remarkably better than that in 2014. For winter (
Figure 2d), the values in 2021 were 39.2%, 51.6%, 55.4%, 84.6%, 34.4%, 40.3%, and −35.7% respectively lower than those in 2014. Air quality in winter of 2021 was remarkably better than that in 2014. In short, the air quality in Jinan City in 2021 was better than that in 2014 in the four seasons.
Table 4 displays the changes of the ratios of air quality ranks in the four seasons from 2014 to 2021. In spring, the ratios of ranks I and Ⅱ increased by 4.4% and 34.9% from 2014 to 2021, respectively. Similarly, in summer, I and Ⅱ increased by a corresponding 13% and 9.6%, respectively. In autumn, I and Ⅱ increased by a corresponding 27.5% and 12.1%, respectively. In winter, I and Ⅱ increased by a corresponding 6.7% and 39.1%, respectively. The ratios of rank I increase the most in autumn, and the ratios of rank Ⅱ increase the most in winter. In the four seasons, the air quality in 2021 was much better than that in 2014.
3.6. Monthly Changes in Air Quality in Jinan City from the COVID Epoch to the Post-COVID Epoch
The concentrations of the six air pollutants and AQI in Jinan City have obvious monthly variation characteristics from 2020 to 2021 (
Figure 3). The AQI in March, May, and July, 2021, were larger than those in 2020, while those in other months in 2021 were smaller than those in 2020 (
Figure 3a). Meanwhile, AQI had its maximum value in January, 2020 and 2021. CO concentration in March, 2021, was higher than that in 2020 and those in other months in 2021 were lower than those in 2020 (
Figure 3b). Moreover, the concentrations of CO had maximum values and minimum values in January and August, 2020 and 2021, respectively. PM
2.5 concentrations in all months in 2021 were smaller than those in 2020 (
Figure 3c). Furthermore, the concentrations of PM
2.5 also had maximum values and minimum values in January and August, 2020 and 2021, respectively. PM
10 concentrations in February and August, 2021, were larger than those in 2020 and smaller than those in other months (
Figure 3d). At the same time, the concentrations of PM
10 also had maximum values and minimum values in January and August, 2020 and 2021, respectively. SO
2 concentrations in February and March, 2021, were larger than those in 2020, and SO
2 concentrations in other months of 2021 were smaller than those in 2020 (
Figure 3e). Moreover, the concentrations of SO
2 also had maximum values and minimum values in January and August, 2020 and 2021, respectively. NO
2 concentrations from January to March, 2021, were larger than those in 2020, and those in other months of 2021 were smaller than those in 2020 (
Figure 3f). Meanwhile, the concentrations of NO
2 also had maximum values and minimum values in January and August, 2020 and 2021, respectively. O
3 concentrations in February, October, and December, 2021, were larger than those in 2020, while those in other months of 2021 were smaller than those in 2020 (
Figure 3g). However, the concentrations of O
3 had maximum values and minimum values in June and December, 2020 and 2021, respectively.
We also analyzed the proportions of the AQI ranks in Jinan during January–December in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The total ratios of rank I and rank II in January, February, July, September, and December 2021 were larger than those in 2020, while those in other months were smaller than those in 2020 (
Figure 4a,b). It shows that the air quality conspicuously improved in January, February, July, September, and December, 2021, and did not change in June and November, but others remarkably deteriorated.
3.8. Comparison with Other Literature
There are many studies on the temporal change characteristics of air quality and its influencing factors on daily, monthly, and annual scales in other cities and regions. Compared to 2014, there were significant decreases of air pollutants in China in 2018, which were about 16% AQI, 20% NO
2, 25% CO, 20% PM
10, 52% SO
2, and 28% PM
2.5. The continuous improvement of air quality is mainly related with rigorous emission control acts in China, along with the changes in meteorology. In contrast, O
3 concentration continuously increased during 2014–2018 [
51]. PM
10, PM
2.5, SO
2, and CO concentrations in China between 2015 and 2019 decreased, while the O
3 concentration increased. The increasing rate of O
3 in ‘2 + 26’ cites was 14 times the global mean. In terms of diurnal variation, CO and NO
2 concentrations reached their maxima between approximately 8:00 and 9:00 a.m. due to morning rush hour traffic, which was approximately 1 h before the SO
2 and PMs reached maxima [
52].
The average concentrations of five pollutants (PM
10, PM
2.5, SO
2, NO
2, and CO) decreased by about 15.3%, 19.3%, 29.3%, 9.4%, and 8% from 2015 to 2016 in China. On the contrary, the O
3 concentration increased by about 4.2% during 2015–2016, which was mainly due to high VOC loading. The concentrations of the five pollutants were the highest and the lowest in winter and summer, respectively. Nevertheless, the O
3 concentration peaked in summer, followed by ones in spring and autumn and presented the lowest one in winter. The six pollutants exhibited significant diurnal cycle in China. The five pollutants presented the bimodal pattern with two peaks in the morning (9:00–10:00) and at late night (21:00–22:00), respectively. Nevertheless, the O
3 concentration exhibited the highest value around 15:00. The PM
10, PM
2.5, and SO
2 concentrations were significantly associated with atmosphere temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. The CO and NO
2 concentrations displayed a significant relationship with atmosphere temperature, while the O
3 concentration was closely linked to relative humidity and the sunshine duration [
53]. Decreases in PM
2.5, PM
10, NO
2, SO
2, and CO levels were found in about 91%, 92%, 75%, 94%, and 89% of 336 Chinese cities from 2016 to 2020, respectively, while an increase in O
3 was found in about 87% of 336 Chinese cities [
54].
From 2015 to 2019, the annual number of PM
2.5 (O
3) pollution days in eastern China decreased (increased) by about 9% (19%). The daily average PM
2.5 concentrations were positively correlated with the O
3 concentrations in most regions and seasons in eastern China, and it tended to be more positively correlated as the PM
2.5 concentration decreased. The temperature was positively correlated with the O
3 concentration. Under high-temperature conditions, the PM
2.5 and O
3 concentrations exhibited a stronger positive correlation. The relative humidity was negatively correlated with the O
3 concentration and positively correlated with the PM
2.5 concentration in the North China Plain (NCP), but was negatively correlated with it in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) [
55].
In the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region during 2015–2020, PM
2.5 pollution decreased significantly, indicating air pollution control policies in China have taken effect. Temperature and precipitation mainly showed negative impacts on PM
2.5 pollution, while relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration aggravated PM
2.5 pollution in the BTH [
56]. The concentration of air pollutants in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA) during 2015–2021 has decreased year by year. Except for O
3, the five air pollutants in autumn and winter were higher than those in summer. The six air pollutants and AQI have dominant periods on multiple time scales. AQI showed positive coherence with PM
2.5 and PM
10 on multiple time scales. AQI showed an obvious positive correlation with sunshine hours and temperature and a clear negative correlation with rainfall and humidity [
57].
The annual average AQI of all cities in the Yellow River Economic Belt (YREB) decreased from about 107 to 74 during 2014–2019. Annual changes in AQI over the YREB followed a U-shaped pattern, being lower in spring and summer and higher in autumn and winter. The monthly variation cycles of AQI were also distinct over the YREB. Air pollution was most severe from December to February. Air quality was relatively good from June to August. The high AQI of the YREB in winter was associated with residential heating via coal combustion, which is highly polluting. In most northern cities, the extensive emissions in winter, together with weak convection, the low levels of rainfall, and lower vegetation cover, led to the worst air quality among the seasons. Annual wind speed and relative humidity had significant negative effects on the AQI values over the YREB [
33].
The concentrations of five air pollutants (SO
2, NO
2, CO, PM
10, and PM
2.5) decreased from 2006 to 2019, but the O
3 concentration increased in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Monthly PM
2.5 was not significantly correlated with O
3. However, it had a positive correlation with NO
2, SO
2, CO, and PM
10 concentrations. NO
2 concentration was significantly correlated with CO concentration. In addition to the significant positive correlation between O
3 and PM
10 concentrations, there was also a negative correlation between O
3 and other pollutant concentrations. In addition to the significant positive correlation between PM
2.5 concentration and air pressure (AP), PM
2.5 concentration was also negatively correlated with precipitation (P), relative humidity (RH), sunshine duration (SD), temperature (T), and wind speed (WS). The positive or negative correlations between other pollutants (NO
2, SO
2, CO, PM
10) and meteorological factors were the same as those between PM
2.5 concentration and meteorological factors. This finding indicated that NO
2, SO
2, CO, PM
10, and PM
2.5 concentrations were relatively low in places with high P, T, and RH. Moreover, PM
10, CO, and PM
2.5 concentrations were negatively correlated with WS, which was mainly because WS was the main driving factor for the diffusion of air pollutants. The higher the wind speed, the more conducive it was for the diffusion and dilution of pollutants. The six air pollutants were negatively correlated with P, indicating that wet scavenging of precipitation was the primary removal method of aerosol particles from the atmosphere. O
3 concentration had a positive correlation with T and SD. High O
3 concentrations appeared when T and SD were high. On the monthly time scale, air pollutants had high correlations with RH, AP, P, and T. In different seasons, the correlations among air pollutants and meteorological factors were slightly different [
58].
The O
3 pollution in Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, and Shanghai were more and more serious during 2013–2020. The meteorology is the dominant driver for the O
3 trend. The variations in meteorology lead to the enhancement of atmospheric oxidation capacity and the acceleration of O
3 production. Though the NO
x/VOC ratios were obviously decreased from 2013 to 2020, the emission reductions were still not enough to mitigate O
3 pollution in the four cities [
59].
Compared to 2014, BC, PM
2.5, and PM
10 concentrations in 2019 in Beijing decreased by about 53.7%, 52.7%, and 46.9%, respectively. However, O
3 concentration showed an upward trend. There was obvious diurnal variation in CO, NO
2, SO
2, and O
3 concentrations. The CO concentration in summer in 2014–2019 started to rise in the early morning, reached a peak around 9 am, then began to decline, and reached a valley around 4 pm. The NO
2 concentration showed a similar diurnal variation to CO, reaching a peak at about 4 am and a valley around 3 pm. The SO
2 concentration reached its lowest value at around 6 am and reached its peak after noon. O
3 concentration showed a more distinctly unimodal variation, reaching its lowest value around 6 am, reaching its peak at noon under the influence of solar radiation. High temperature, moderate humidity, and sufficient sunlight are conducive to the existence of high concentrations of O
3 [
60].
The annual concentrations of O
3 in Tianjin showed an overall upward trend during 2014–2019, then decreased significantly during 2020–2021.Temperature was the most important factor affecting O
3 level, followed by air humidity in O
3 pollution season. Specifically, in summer, O
3 pollution frequently exceeded the standard level (>160 µg/m
3) at combined with a relative humidity of 40–50% and a temperature > 31 °C [
61]. The growth of per capita GDP (GDPPC) facilitated the reduction of PM
2.5 pollution while the increase in the other socioeconomic factors aggravated haze pollution in North China Plain from 2013 to 2017 [
62].
The air quality around the world has also changed significantly. The global distribution of average PM
2.5 concentrations during 1998–2016 shows that PM
2.5 concentrations were most pronounced in China and India. Values of more than 50% (extreme increase) were widely distributed throughout India and neighboring regions. Sporadic areas of extreme increases were found in South America, Africa, and Asia. In Western Europe and the United States, many areas had decreased PM
2.5 concentrations in 1998–2016 [
63]. PM
2.5 concentrations in Ulaanbaatar city of Mongolia have been declining since 2018. However, PM
2.5 from January to March 2020 was about 129, 71, and 33 µg/m
3, respectively [
64]. SO
2 concentrations in India increased between 1980 and 2010. However, SO
2 concentration shows a decreasing trend in 2010–2020 [
65]. When stratifying the analysis by every 5 years in 10 Japanese cities, average concentrations in each sub-period decreased for SO
2 and NO
2 concentrations (about 14–2 ppb and 29–18 ppb, respectively) but increased for Ox concentration (29–39 ppb) during 1977–2015 [
66]. Annual mean PM
2.5 concentrations over North Korea from 2015 to 2018 were about 43.5, 40, 41.1, and 42.7 μg/m
3. The highest PM
2.5 concentrations appeared in Pyongyang, with corresponding annual values of 55.7, 50.4, 45.4, and 47.2 μg/m
3, respectively. The PM
2.5 concentrations showed declining trends [
67]. Both cities of Paris and London had downward trends in background NO
2 concentrations in 2005–2009 (about −2.1% and −1.4% per year in Paris and London, respectively). In 2010–2016, NO
2 concentrations in London decreased faster (−2.1% per year) than that in Paris (−1.7% per year). PM
2.5 concentrations at background locations in Paris decreased at −4.2% per year in 2005–2009 and faster in 2010–2016 at −5.2% per year. London had downward trends in 2005–2016 [
68]. Air pollution (NO
2, PM
10, and PM
2.5 concentrations) trends showed an overall decrease in pollution levels in Spain in the 1993–2017 period (2001–2017 for PM
2.5). In contrast, average ambient O
3 levels have increased by nearly 10 μg/m
3 [
69]. The average annual population-weighted PM
2.5 exposure in Europe in 1990 was about 21 μg/m
3, while in 2019 it was about 34% lower at 14 μg/m
3 [
70]. The annual average PM
2.5 concentration over North America decreased from about 22 μg/m
3 in 1981 to 8 μg/m
3 in 2016, with an overall trend of −0.33 μg/m
3 per year [
71].
The temporal variation in characteristics of air quality in Jinan city are similar to those in other cities, and the impact of meteorological factors on air pollution is also similar. Combined with these findings from previous studies, the air quality improvements in Jinan city should be mainly conducted by rigid air quality control policies and emission reduction measures.