Minimizing Cost Overrun in Rail Projects through 5D-BIM: A Systematic Literature Review
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- What causes cost overrun in transport projects in general and rail projects in particular?
- What are the cost models used to predict and analyse cost overrun in transport projects in general and rail projects in particular?
- What cost management and control strategies are used to prevent these cost overruns? What is the efficiency of these strategies and suitability for 5D-BIM modelling?
- How can 5D-BIM be successfully integrated into rail projects life cycle to support cost management and control models and minimize/prevent cost overrun?
2. Background and Terminology
2.1. Infrastructure Mega-Projects
2.2. Infrastructure and Rail Projects
2.3. Cost Overruns
2.4. Five-Dimensional Building Information Modelling (5D-BIM)
2.5. Cost Management
2.5.1. Cost Estimation
2.5.2. Cost Modelling
2.5.3. Cost Budgeting
2.5.4. Cost/Budget Monitoring and Control
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Approach
3.1.1. Systematic Literature Review Stages
3.1.2. Tools and Software Packages
3.1.3. Data Sources
3.2. Network Representation
4. Results
4.1. Publication Sources
4.2. Analysis of Publication Source
4.3. Location Analysis
4.4. Co-Authorship Network
4.5. Keywords Re-Occurrence and Cluster Analysis
5. Findings and Discussion
5.1. Cluster # 0 Railway Infrastructure
Conceptual Debates in Cluster # 0
5.2. Cluster # 1 Building Information Modelling
5.2.1. Quantity Take-Off (Quantification)
5.2.2. Cost Estimation
5.2.3. Cost Monitoring and Control
5.2.4. Lifecycle Cost Analysis
5.3. Cluster # 4 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis, Cluster # 6 Cost Deviation, and Cluster # 8 Cost Control
Cost Estimation Models
5.4. Citation Burst and Trend Analysis
6. Conclusions
- The study underscored the considerable conceptual controversy regarding the directionality of cost overrun, its definitions, and the diversity of perspectives and underlying theories. The study found that cost overrun causes could be dependent on the viewpoint, with auditors explaining cost overruns as technical challenges, the economic, psychological and political literature focusing on the perspective of the public decision maker, and construction engineering managerial analysis focusing on contractual incompetence and related technical consequences.
- The study also analysed various quantitative and qualitative cost estimation methods employed in transportation and rail projects, with the rail industry primarily relying on parametric, artificial neural network (ANN), and Monte Carlo simulation-based techniques. Qualitative approaches used in rail projects, such as the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy neural network (NN), case-based reasoning (CBR), and expert judgment (EJ), depend on the estimator’s understanding of the project and the scope of work, while quantitative methods, such as unit cost, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), BIM, graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT), program evaluation and review technique (PERT), structural equation modeling (SEM), and regression analysis (RA), rely on historical data collection and analysis.
- The study further revealed that despite extensive research efforts and the implementation of various cost management and control strategies, such as reference class forecasting (RCF), data mining, historical data analysis, and contingency planning, most of these strategies have significant limitations and theoretical flaws. Therefore, the study emphasizes the potential of recent advancements in 5D-BIM to address the root causes of the problem.
- The study also examined the various applications of 5D-BIM in rail and transport projects, identifying its use in quantity take-off, cost estimation, cost budgeting, cost control, and lifecycle cost analysis. The benefits of BIM at different stages of the typical rail project lifecycle were identified, including creating a unified platform for data storage and management during the survey stage, design visualization and collaborative work during the design stage, schedule and site management during the construction stage, and operation and disaster emergency simulation in the operation stage. Alongside the BIM benefits, the study identified technical, personal, and process challenges for BIM implementation in rail projects.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
5D-BIM | Five-Dimensional Building Information Modelling |
AACEI | Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International |
ABC | Activity-Based Costing |
AECO | Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations |
AHP | Analytical Hierarchy Process |
AI | Artificial Intelligence |
ANNs | Artefactual Neural Networks |
BIM | Building Information Modeling |
CBR | Case-Based Reasoning |
CBS | Cost Breakdown Structure |
EVM | Earned Value Management |
EJ | Expert Judgment |
FIG | International Federation of Surveyors |
GA | Genetic Algorithm |
GIS | Geographic Information System |
GERT | Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique |
ICEC | Cost Engineering Council |
ICMS | International Cost Management Standard |
IFC | Industry Foundation Classes |
IoT | Internet of Things |
KPIs | Key Performance Indicators |
LCC | Life-Cycle Costs |
LCCA | Life-Cycle Cost Analysis |
ML | Machine Learning |
MRA | Multiple Regression Analysis |
NRM | New Rules of Measurement |
PBO | Parliamentary Budget Office |
PRISMA | Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses |
RBC | Resource-Based Costing |
RCF | Reference Class Forecasting |
RA | Regression Analysis |
RICS | Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors |
SLR | Systematic Literature Review |
SEM | Structural Equation Modeling |
TCM | Total Cost Management |
TVD | Target Value Design |
WBS | Work Breakdown Structure |
Appendix A. Different 5D-BIM Uses as Discussed in the Literature
Research Method | Source | Region | Project Phase | Perspective | Purpose of Using 5D-BIM | Industry | Conclusion/Findings | |||||
Quantity Take-Off (Quantification) | Cost Estimation | Cost Monitoring and Control | Lifecycle Cost Analysis | Rail/Transport | Infrastructure | Construction | ||||||
Case study | Digital project management in infrastructure project: a case study of Nagpur Metro Rail Project [21] | India | Construction | Contractor | X | X | X | X | X | - | - | The deployment of a BIM-based integrated digital project management system in the Nagpur Metro Rail Project has benefited the project in a variety of ways, including improved cost management and control. |
Case Study | 5D-BIM applied to cost estimating, scheduling, and project control in underground projects [298] | Europe | Construction | Client | X | - | X | - | X | - | - | 5D-BIM is highly recommended in case of alternative project delivery such as design–build and P3 Projects. BIM’s best added value is appreciated in complex projects such as urban tunnelling and complex projects such as underground hydropower plants, railway and highway twin tube tunnel projects and repository underground structures. |
Questionnaire | Benefits of integrating 5D-BIM in cost management practices in quantity surveying firms [299] | Nigeria | ALL | - | X | X | X | X | - | - | X | Cost managers will benefit from 5D-BIM in a variety of ways, including automated quantity take-off and improved project visualisation during the design and construction stages. |
Case Study | Time and cost control of construction project using 5D- BIM process [300] | India | Construction | Client | X | X | X | - | - | X | 5D-BIM provides various advantages in terms of time and cost management for building projects, including faster procurement process, precise/fast decision making. | |
Review | Analysis on the BIM application in the whole life cycle of railway engineering [218] | China | ALL | Client | - | - | - | X | X | - | - | BIM technology will progressively advance railway construction and, in the near future, will replace CAD. It will propel railway construction to a greater degree of informatization and intelligence growth. |
Modelling simulation of a railway station | Digital twin for sustainability evaluation of railway station buildings [188] | UK | Construction | Client | X | X | X | X | X | - | - | The adoption of BIM in railway station construction projects provides several benefits. |
Review | Overview: the opportunity of BIM in railway [22] | Morocco | ALL | - | X | X | X | X | X | - | - | BIM integration in rail is becoming a worldwide trend. This integration requires government decisions, more political impulse and a maturation of technology and tools. |
Case study | Applying building information modelling to integrate schedule and cost for establishing construction progress curves [301] | Taiwan | Construction | Client | X | X | X | X | - | - | X | A four-step model incorporating BIM objects was used to establish a construction S-Curve. |
Case study | Research on cost control of construction project based on the theory of lean construction and BIM: Case Study [302] | China | Construction | Client | - | - | X | - | - | - | X | Demonstrated by a case study, it is shown how a combination of lean theory and BIM can improve cost control in construction projects. |
Case study | Implementing earned value management using bridge information modelling [303] | Egypt | Construction | Client | X | X | X | X | - | - | X | Presented a case study for the application of BIM in cost and time management of infrastructure bridge. |
Case study | Project cost control using five dimensions building information modelling [304] | Egypt | Construction | Contractor | X | X | X | - | - | - | X | Using 5D-BIM improves project financial decision making (including stakeholder communications, cost estimation and control process). |
Appendix B. Cost Estimation Methods (Models)
Approach | Category | Cost Estimation Method (Model) | Description |
Quantitative | Parametric | Regression Analysis (RA) | Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to investigate the relationship between variables [305]. It provide simple analysis to sort out the impact of different parameters on the project costs [306]. |
Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) | Monte Carlo simulation uses random sampling and statistical modelling to estimate mathematical functions and simulate the processes of complex systems [307]. Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate contingency and cost estimate uncertainties [308]. | ||
Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) | SEM is a comprehensive statistical method that tests hypotheses about relations between observed and latent variables [309]. SEM is a combination of two statistical methods: confirmatory factor analysis and path analysis [310]. | ||
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) | PERT uses random variables with the following parameters to estimate the cost/duration of an activity: a—optimistic cost/time required to accomplish a task, m—the most probable cost/time required to accomplish a task, b—pessimistic cost/time required to accomplish a task. The value of estimated cost/time is equal to ((a + 4m + b)/6)) [311] | ||
Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) | GERT was introduced by [312]. It is a technique used to analyse stochastic networks that contain activities with a probability of occurrence associated with them, and treat the plausibility that time/cost required to complete an activity is a random variable (not a constant) [313]. | ||
Analytical | Decision Tree | Decision tree approach is a popular data mining method for constructing prediction algorithms for a target variable or establishing classification systems based on many variables [314]. | |
BIM | BIM object-oriented system helps facilitate generating bottom-up estimates and quantity take-off [315]. | ||
Unit Cost | The unit cost estimate method focuses on determining the cost of materials, equipment, and labour for each component of a construction, which requires a detailed quantities take-off [316]. | ||
Qualitative | Intuitive | Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) | AHP is a decision-making support approach for selecting a solution from alternatives based on a set of evaluation criteria [317]. |
Analogous | Artificial Neural Network (ANN) | A neural network simulates the operation of the human brain. It excels at tackling complicated non-linear mathematical problems [318]. | |
Fuzzy Neural Network (NN) | Neural networks (NNs) are modelled after biological neural systems [319], while fuzzy logic is a tool for simulating human cognition and perception [319]. It describes process uncertainties and imprecision [320]. Combined together can form powerful tool to estimate project costs [320]. | ||
Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) | CBR is an approach for solving new problem cases by reusing findings from old cases. The CBR systems consist of a data base to store old cases along with their solutions [321]. | ||
Expert Judgment (EJ) | Expert judgement (EJ) approach relies on the understanding/thinking and reasoning of experts on processing historical cost data to make sound judgment on project cost [322]. | ||
Support Vector Machine (SVM) | SVM is a computer algorithm that uses examples to learn how to label objects [323]. SVM can be used in different ways to support the estimation process [324,325] |
Appendix C. Key Publications Covering Cost Overrun Causes in Transport and Rail Projects
Research Method | Source | Region | Project Phase | Industry | Cost Overrun | Conclusion/Findings | ||
Rail | Transport | Perspective | Category | |||||
A study based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects. | Underestimating costs in public works projects: Error or lie? [40]. | USA | ALL | - | X | Client | Psychological/Technical | Cost underestimation cannot be explained by error and seems to be best explained by strategic misrepresentation, i.e., lying. In 9 out of 10 transportation infrastructure projects, costs are underestimated. For rail projects, actual costs are on average 45% higher than estimated costs. Cost underestimation exists across 20 nations and 5 continents; it appears to be a global phenomenon. |
Investigated the causes of project cost overruns reported in the construction-management-related articles since 1985. | Review of construction journals on causes of project cost overruns [326]. | Worldwide | ALL | X | X | - | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | The study identified 79 causes of cost overruns, the top causes that have received the highest number of citations includes: design problems, inaccurate estimation, poor planning, poor communication, and poor financial management. |
A study based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects. | What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects? [142]. | USA | ALL | X | X | Client | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | Cost escalation is highly dependent on length of project implementation phase. Data do not support that bigger projects have a larger risk of cost escalation than do smaller ones. Public projects are not more problematic compared to privately owned projects (in terms of cost overrun). |
Case study | Cost overruns and delays in infrastructure projects: the case of Stuttgart 21 [327]. | Germany | All | X | X | Client | Technical/Economic | Cost overrun causes include: scope changes, geological conditions, high risk-taking propensity, extended implementation, price overshoot, conflict of interests and lack of citizens’ participation. |
Case studies | Cost overruns in Australian transport infrastructure projects [273]. | Australia | All | X | X | Client | Technical | Studied the magnitude of cost overruns on Australian transport infrastructure projects. |
Literature study | Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness [143]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | Client | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | Discussed agency theory, eclectic theory, rational choice theory and prospect theory. |
Statistical analysis of case studies. | Cost overruns in road construction—what are their sizes and determinants? [42]. | Norway | All | - | X | Client | Technical | Investigated the statistical relationship between actual and estimated cost, cost overrun is found to be more predominant as compared to cost savings, there are significant number of projects being completed with actual costs less than estimated. Provided policy implications. |
Analysed government project data. | On the magnitude of cost overruns throughout the project life cycle: An assessment for the Italian transport infrastructure projects [272]. | Italy | All | - | X | Client | Technical | Analysed government project data and the whole process of cost generation for transport infrastructure works. |
Analysed rail project data set. | Cost overrun and demand shortfalls in urban rail and other infrastructure [144]. | Worldwide | All | X | X | Client | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | The analysis of construction costs shows that urban rail projects on average turn out to be substantially more costly than forecast. At the same time, the analysis of ridership shows urban rail to achieve considerably fewer passengers than forecast and thus lower revenues. The article showed that urban rail projects are particularly risky ventures, although other transportation projects, such as tunnels and bridges, are also highly risky, as are projects in policy areas other than transportation: Average cost escalation for urban rail is 45% in constant prices. For 25% of urban rail projects cost escalations are at least 60%. Actual ridership is on average 51% lower than forecast. For 25% of urban rail projects, actual ridership is at least 68% lower than forecast. When cost risk and revenue risk are combined, a risk profile emerges for urban rail, which proves such projects to be economically risky to the second degree. |
Analysed a data set of 1091 transport projects developed by the Portuguese government. | The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous model’s approach [328] | Portugal | All | - | X | Client | Technical | Profound implications concerning public policy, because when undertaking large infrastructure developments plans, and estimating their potential cost (and overruns), it is fundamental to understand the current economic dynamics, as well as acting on improving the overall legal (particularly regarding public procurement laws) and governance environment, particularly regarding the government’s efficiency, corruption, and the overall rule of law. |
Investigated the risk factors leading to substantial cost overruns of highway projects and develop a more definitive risk contingency allocation regime for overall highway projects to supersede the arbitrary models currently present. | Evaluation of risk factors leading to cost overrun in delivery of highway construction projects [265] | Australia | project development. | - | X | Client | Technical | Investigated the statistical models that can explain the correlation between the cause, effect, and other relationships relating to the cost overrun in highway construction projects. The regression analysis demonstrated a weak correlation between the size of highway projects, as measured in the indexed programmed cost, and the size of cost overruns. It can also be concluded from the research that the arbitrary application of a base contingency percentage figure, such as 10%, to accommodate project risk can lead to those projects reporting a substantial budget overrun. |
Analysed a project data set (a sample of 258 projects worth approximately USD 90 billion). | How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects? [145] | USA | ALL | X | X | Client | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | Cost estimates used in public debates, media coverage and decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically, and significantly deceptive. The risks generated from misleading cost estimates are typically ignored or underplayed in infrastructure decision-making. |
Analysed a project data set (a sample of 78 projects). | Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases [216]. | Netherlands | ALL | - | X | Client | Psychological/Political | Found that cost overruns have been a problem for the last 20 years. Furthermore, although in the Netherlands cost overruns are about as common as cost underruns, the average overrun is larger than the average underrun. Overall, projects have an average overrun of 16.5%. Considering these findings, rejecting technical explanations, the cost underestimation in Dutch projects can better be explained by psychological and political–economic explanations. The most common psychological explanation is probably “appraisal optimism”. |
Literature study | How to Build Major Transport Infrastructure Projects within Budget, in Time and with the Expected Output; a Literature Review [286]. | Worldwide | ALL | - | X | Client | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | The main conclusion from the review is that in the current scientific literature on major transportation infrastructure projects, four main factors are mentioned that might help to build these projects in time, on budget and with the expected output: improving cost and benefit estimates, risk-containment measures, increasing accountability, and clear scope and objectives. |
Analysed a project data set (a sample of 78 projects) | Different cost performance: Different determinants? The case of cost overruns in Dutch transport infrastructure projects [329]. | Netherlands | ALL | X | X | Client | Technical | The study showed that in the Netherlands, cost overruns for rail projects are relatively low, both when compared nationally with roads and fixed links, and internationally when compared with worldwide findings. The difference between project types may be related to the organisational set-up and institutional settings, which is different for rail projects (with ProRail as project owner) and for road projects (with RWS as project owner). This research furthermore concluded that small projects have the largest average cost overrun. This suggests that smaller projects deserve more attention than is currently the case, as they result in similar percentage cost overruns as the large projects. |
Systematic Literature Review | Tales on the dark side of the transport infrastructure provision: a systematic literature review of the determinants of cost overruns [5]. | Worldwide | - | X | Different perspectives | Technical/Economic/Psychological/Political | This study provides a systematic review of the broad and heterogeneous literature that investigates the determinants of cost overruns in transport infrastructure provision. It focuses on empirical analyses, published between 2000 and 2016. | |
Case studies | Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects [330]. | Sweden | ALL | X | X | Client | - | A good strategy to improve cost calculation would be to develop a cost estimation method which considers the risks of the costs in each individual component based on the experiences of a class of similar projects. This is the same concept as the risk-based estimating method used in Australia. It combines advantages from both the successive calculation and the reference class forecasting method. |
Literature study | Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects [9]. | Worldwide | ALL | - | X | Client | - | A detailed examination of the Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl research raises serious questions regarding the methodology adopted, the analysis undertaken, and unfounded conclusions reached. |
Critical analysis | Explaining cost overruns of large-scale transportation infrastructure projects using a signalling game [331]. | Worldwide | Biding | - | X | Client/Contractor | Political-economic | The signalling game gives useful insights into the way in which strategic behaviour results in cost underestimation. It is, furthermore, a valuable tool to predict the impact of policy measures on the behaviour of the market party. Measurements are aimed to reprimand or prevent the strategic behaviour of the market party and they should be focused on changing the incentive structure in such a way that the signal of the game becomes effective. |
Critical analysis/Literature study | Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation [105]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | Client | Probabilistic causal inferences about cost overruns can be acquired from a combination of assumptions, experiments, and data. | |
Review | Toward a Systemic View to Cost Overrun Causation in Infrastructure Projects: A Review and Implications for Research [6]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | - | - | Explored some of the methodological deficiencies in the approaches adopted in a majority of the cost overrun research. These deficiencies include a poor understanding of systemicity and embeddedness of the sources of overruns, a dependence on correlational analysis, a lack of demonstrable causality, and superficiality of the research design. Found that cost overrun research has largely stagnated in the refinement and advancement of the knowledge area; the bulk of it has largely been replicative. |
Critical analysis/Literature study | On de-bunking “fake news” in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short? [146]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | Client | - | Critically questioned the work presented by Bent Flyvbjerg. |
Analysed a project data set | Cost Overrun and Cause in Korean Social Overhead Capital Projects: Roads, Rails, Airports, and Ports [116]. | Korea | All | - | X | Client | - | In Korea, the causes of cost overruns can be grouped into several major categories: changes in the scope of a project, delays in construction, unreasonable estimations and adjustments of the project costs, and no practical use of the earned value management system. |
Critical literature review | Construction Projects Cost Overrun: What Does the Literature Tell Us? [242]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | - | - | 173 causes of cost overrun have been found in seventeen contexts, with the main potential causes being: frequent design change, contractors’ financing, payment delay for completed work, lack of contractor experience, poor cost estimation, poor tendering documentation, and poor material management. |
Systematic literature review | Cost Overrun Causative Factors in Road Infrastructure Projects: A Frequency and Importance Analysis [332]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | - | - | It is recommended that the mitigation of cost overruns in road projects be undertaken from the early stages. This due to the fact that several causal factors with high influence values are observed among the top 20 factors with the greatest influence, which are related to different processes that belong to the initial stages of the projects, factors that are under the control of the project stakeholders and therefore have high viability to be addressed. |
Systematic literature review | Systematic Review of Cost Overrun Research in the Developed and Developing Countries [333]. | Developing Countries | All | - | X | - | - | The findings of this study have shown that there have been broad studies conducted on cost overrun in both developing nations and developed nations. However, there is a slight lack in comprehensiveness of cost overrun studies in the developing nations; perhaps future studies on cost overrun in developing nations can be directed to more specific areas of construction projects such as those that have been performed by researchers of the developed nations. |
Literature review | Academics and Auditors Comparing Perspectives on Transportation Project Cost Overruns [271]. | Worldwide | All | - | X | - | - | There are divergences between the technical and managerial explanations prioritized by the auditors and the political, economic, and psychological explanations prioritized in much of the academic literature. Moreover, the independent government audits place considerably less weight on willful deception and strategic misrepresentation as systematic causes of cost overruns than some of the highest-profile academic studies on the topic [334,335,336]). These variations are significant, as they point to diverse strategies to reduce the prevalence of cost overruns on future transportation investment projects. |
Analysed a project data set (Seven large bridge and tunnel projects) | Inaccuracy of traffic forecasts and cost estimates on large transport projects [147]. | Denmark | All | X | X | Client | Technical | Forecasts of project viability for large transport infrastructure projects are often over-optimistic to a degree where such forecasts correspond poorly with actual development. |
Analysed a project data set (six major European railway projects) | A New Paradigm for the Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects and How to Contain Cost Overruns: Lessons from the EVA-TREN Project [337]. | Europe | All | X | X | - | - | Highlighted cost overrun and lessons learned from EVA-TREN Project. |
Analysed a project data set (Sixteen rail projects) | Trends in U.S. rail transit project cost overrun [180]. | USA | All | X | X | Client | - | There is evidence to suggest that cost overruns for projects completed before 1990 are different from that of projects completed after 1994 (i.e., cost overruns have become smaller—positive trend). |
Appendix D. Cost Models Used for Cost Estimation, Prediction, and Analysis in Transport and Rail Projects
Cost Estimation Method/Model | Source | Region | Project Phase | Industry | Conclusion/Findings | |
Rail | Transport | |||||
Earned value | The control model of engineering cost in construction phase of high-speed railway [338] | China | Construction | X | X | To improve the efficiency of cost control in the high speed railway construction phase, the researchers set up the model of earned value and install FBCWS index, through the contrast between FBCWS index and ACWP index, they have improved the efficiency of cost control in construction stage, so that they can do the better in the direction and control before costs incurred and make the construction cost control management more scientific and effective in the construction phase of high speed rail project. |
Life Cycle Costing | An application of a generalized life cycle cost model to boxn wagons of Indian railways [339] | India | Operation and Maintenance | X | X | A generalized life cycle cost model for repairable and non-repairable products based on reliability and maintainability (M) aspects is applied to BOXN wagons used by Indian railways and the results obtained are discussed. |
Multiple | Cost Estimation Methods for Transport Infrastructure: A Systematic Literature Review [284] | Worldwide | All | X | X | According to the SLR, 12 different cost estimation methods have been used in different transport infrastructure modes. Among these, the parametric method has been used the most, followed by artificial neural networks. With respect to infrastructure type, the focus was mostly on roads. The trend shows that research on cost estimation methods has been increasing over the years and more types of methods are being used. Most of the research found focused on the experimental use of different methods, and not the analysis of the methods practiced in the industry. |
Case-based Reasoning (CBR) estimate | The Approximate Cost Estimating Model for Railway Bridge Project in the Planning Phase Using CBR Method [282] | Korea | Planning | X | X | Suggested the cost estimation model which uses CBR and makes the database reflect the character of the railroad bridge. The study examined combinations of attributes, criteria of similarities, and retrieval ranks and applied GA for an optimization of attribute weights throughout learning process. |
Linear Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) | Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for theConstruction of Underground Metro Stations. [340] | Greece | Construction | X | X | Using linear regression analysis and ANNs in comparing the actual values of costs and quantities with the corresponding predictions proved to be efficient and reliable cost estimation methodology. |
Multiple regression analysis | Early cost estimation models based on multiple regression analysis for road and railway tunnel projects [341] | Western Europe | Planning | X | X | Developed tunnel cost estimation models that can be used for various applications in the planning stage of road and railway projects. The models were developed using data from 25 constructed projects in western European countries. |
BIM | Optimization of cost of a tram through the integration of BIM: A theoretical analysis [260] | Morocco | Construction | X | X | Conducted a theoretical analysis of the optimization of the cost of a tram by integrating the building information modelling (BIM) from the sketching phase and throughout the life cycle of the infrastructure. The analysis showed that BIM would reduce 8.4% of the overall cost of a tramway project. It also showed that BIM would save 10% of maintenance costs over 30 years. |
Life Cycle Costing | Development of a life cycle cost estimate system for structures of light rail transit infrastructure [211] | Korea | Construction | X | X | An LRT-LCC system was developed in this study, based on existing studies on LRT construction cost estimation and LCC estimation studies for bridges, tunnels, and buildings. The system was composed to provide a feasibility analysis based on the existing economic analytical results of each structure required for LRT construction. |
Pairwise comparisons | Modelling the cost of railway asset renewal projects using pairwise comparisons [342] | UK | Design | X | X | Presented the development process of a cost-estimating model for railway renewal projects at the early stage of a project life cycle. The practical implications of the developed model are its ability to estimate renewal project costs of railway assets when there is a lack of quantitative data and detailed project definition. |
Statistical methods | Determining the Probability of Project Cost Overruns [343] | Australia | All | - | X | Developed a Fréchet probability function that can be used to calculate the probability of cost overruns. |
Parametric cost estimation | Parametric cost estimation system for light rail transit and metro track works [344] | Turkey | Concept | X | X | Developed a multivariable regression and artificial neural network models for cost estimation of the construction costs of track works for light rail transit and metro projects at the early stages of the construction process. |
Present Worth Analysis, Internal Rate of Return and Cost-Benefit Analysis | Railway Investment Appraisal Techniques [345] | Europe | Concept | X | X | Presented the basic principles and applications of the most important investment appraisal techniques in a clearly written fashion, supported by a number of railway-related examples. |
A set of cost functions | A tool for railway transport cost evaluation [346] | Italy | Feasibility study | X | X | Provided a systematic process for cost estimation and decision support. The methodology can be used as an intermediate tool to allow rail planners to more easily perform railroad analysis and planning activities on their own, prior to contracting out feasibility studies. |
Appendix E. Popular Methods/Techniques Used for Cost Overrun Prediction, Cost Estimate and Cost Contingency Calculations
Method/Technique | Type | Definition | Method Uses from the Literature | ||
Cost Overrun Prediction | Cost Contingency Calculations | Cost Estimation | |||
Case-based reasoning (CBR) | Analogical method | “A case-based reasoner solves new problems by adapting solutions that were used to solve old problems.” [347] | [276] | [348,349] | |
Multiple regression analysis (MRA) | Statistical method | “Multiple regression is used as a data-analytic strategy to explain or predict a criterion (dependent) variable with a set of predictor (independent) variables” [350] | [351] | [352,353,354] | [355,356] |
Artificial neural networks (ANN) | Repetitive learning | “A massively parallel combination of simple processing unit which can acquire knowledge from environment through a learning process and store the knowledge in its connections.” [357] | [351] | [353,354] | |
Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) | Stochastic method | “The Monte Carlo method is an application of the laws of probability and statistics to the natural sciences” [358] | [359] |
Appendix F. Systematic Literature Review (SLR) Protocol
Organization, city, country | Monash University, Melbourne, Australia |
Prepared by | Osama Hussain |
Date | Updated on 8 January 2023 |
Review team members | Dr. Robert Moehler—Monash University Dr. Stuart Walsh—Monash University |
Appendix F.1. Background
Appendix F.2. Objective
Appendix F.3. Researchers
- -
- Dr. Robert Moehler—Monash University
- -
- Dr. Stuart Walsh—Monash University
Appendix F.4. Research Questions
- 1.
- What causes cost overrun in transport projects in general and rail projects in particular?
- 2.
- What are the cost models used to predict and analyse cost overrun in transport projects in general and rail projects in particular?
- 3.
- What cost management and control strategies are used to prevent these cost overruns? What is the efficiency of these strategies and suitability for 5D-BIM modelling?
- 4.
- How can 5D-BIM be successfully integrated into rail projects life cycle to support cost management and control models and minimize/prevent cost overrun?
- 5.
- What is the validity and reliability of using 5D-BIM modelling for different types of rail projects?
Appendix F.5. Time Line for the Review
No | Stage | Duration |
1 | Protocol | 2½ weeks |
2 | Literature searching | 2 weeks |
3 | Screening/Quality appraisal | 2 weeks |
4 | Data extraction | 6 weeks |
5 | Synthesis | 4 weeks |
6 | Writing up | 4½ week |
Total | 21weeks |
Appendix F.6. Electronic Databases
Main Sources | ||
1 | Scopus | https://www.scopus.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
2 | Science Direct | https://www.sciencedirect.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
3 | Web of Science (new website) | https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/basic-search (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
Additional sources | ||
4 | Google Scholar | https://scholar.google.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
Note: The search algorithm for Google scholar is not known and cannot be controlled. Google adapts the search to each user in order to personalize information and, as a result, a systematic search is quite probably not replicable [128]. Google Scholar was considered as an additional source only for this systematic literature review. |
Appendix F.7. Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria
Area | Inclusion | Exclusion |
Databases | Indexed in: Scopus, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar | Not indexed in: Scopus, Science Direct, Web of Science and Google Scholar |
Document Types | Journal articles, conference papers, books, and theses. | All other types of publications |
Years | 2000–2023 | Prior to 2000 |
Language | English | Non-English |
Appendix F.8. Search Strategy
- Search in Scopus, Science Direct, and the new website for Web of Science will be conducted using keyword to identify cluster and specific words to identify research focus (in all fields).
- Search in Google Scholar will be conducted using specific words in the article title.
Appendix F.9. Tools and Software Packages
Appendix F.10. Screening /Quality Appraisal
- Title/abstract review: Determine relevancy to the subject area.
- Full text review: Verification of the decision of inclusion performed in the first step.
Appendix F.11. Data Extraction
Appendix G. Search Strategy
- allintitle: Cost overrn model
- allintitle: Cost overrns model
- allintitle: cost overruns cause
- allintitle: cost overruns causes
- allintitle: cost overrun cause
- allintitle: cost overruns drivers
- allintitle: cost overrun drivers
- allintitle: cost overun transport
- allintitle: cost overuns transport
- allintitle: cost overrun rail
- allintitle: cost overruns rail
- allintitle: cost overruns life cycle cost
- allintitle: cost overrun BIM
- allintitle: Cost management transport
- allintitle: cost management rail
- allintitle: cost management railway
- allintitle: cost management BIM
- allintitle: cost management overrun
- allintitle: cost management overruns
- allintitle: cost control transport
- allintitle: cost control rail
- allintitle: cost control railway
- allintitle: cost control BIM
- allintitle: cost control life cycle cost
- allintitle: project cost management BIM
- allintitle: BIM transport
- allintitle: BIM rail
- allintitle: BIM railway
- allintitle: BIM cost model
- allintitle: Rail life cycle cost
- allintitle: Railway life cycle cost
Scopus | ||||||
* Year 2000–2023 | ||||||
** English Language | ||||||
*** Journal articles, conference papers | ||||||
No | Cluster | Keywords | Research Focus (All fields) | Excluded subject areas | ||
1 | Cost overrun | cost overrun | + | Transport | - | Earth and Planetary Sciences |
cost overruns | Rail OR Railway | Mathematics | ||||
cost escalation | BIM OR 5D BIM | Materials Science | ||||
budget overrun | Cost Management OR Cost control | Physics and Astronomy | ||||
project | Agricultural and Biological Sciences | |||||
cost model | Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | |||||
causes OR sources OR drivers | Psychology | |||||
life cycle cost | Environmental Science | |||||
Medicine | ||||||
Chemistry | ||||||
2 | Cost Management & Control | cost management | + | Transport | - | Earth and Planetary Sciences |
cost control | Rail OR Railway | Mathematics | ||||
Project cost management | BIM OR 5D BIM | Materials Science | ||||
cost model | Physics and Astronomy | |||||
life cycle cost | Agricultural and Biological Sciences | |||||
strategies OR policies | Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | |||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | Psychology | |||||
Environmental Science | ||||||
Medicine | ||||||
Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics | ||||||
Chemistry | ||||||
Health Professions | ||||||
Immunology and Microbiology | ||||||
Neuroscience | ||||||
Nursing | ||||||
Dentistry | ||||||
Veterinary | ||||||
3 | BIM | BIM | + | Transport | Earth and Planetary Sciences | |
5D BIM | Rail OR Railway | Mathematics | ||||
Building information modelling | Cost Management OR Cost control | Materials Science | ||||
Physics and Astronomy | ||||||
cost model | Agricultural and Biological Sciences | |||||
life cycle cost | Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | |||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | Environmental Science | |||||
Medicine | ||||||
Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics | ||||||
Chemistry | ||||||
Immunology and Microbiology | ||||||
Neuroscience | ||||||
4 | Rail projects | Rail | + | BIM OR 5D BIM | Earth and Planetary Sciences | |
Railway | Cost Management OR Cost control | Mathematics | ||||
cost model | Materials Science | |||||
life cycle cost | Physics and Astronomy | |||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | Agricultural and Biological Sciences | |||||
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology | ||||||
Environmental Science | ||||||
Medicine | ||||||
Health Professions | ||||||
Chemistry | ||||||
Neuroscience | ||||||
Total |
Web of Science | ||||||
* Year 2000–2023 | ||||||
** English Language | ||||||
No | Cluster | Keywords | Research Focus (All fields) | Excluded subject areas | ||
1 | Cost overrun | cost overrun | + | Transport | - | Environmental Sciences Ecology |
cost overruns | Rail OR Railway | Materials Science | ||||
cost escalation | BIM OR 5D BIM | Chemistry | ||||
budget overrun | Cost Management OR Cost control | Geography | ||||
project | Physics | |||||
cost model | Mathematics | |||||
causes OR sources OR drivers | ||||||
life cycle cost | ||||||
2 | Cost Management & Control | cost management | + | Transport | - | Environmental Sciences Ecology |
cost control | Rail OR Railway | Agriculture | ||||
Project cost management | BIM OR 5D BIM | Materials Science | ||||
cost model | Health Care Sciences Services | |||||
life cycle cost | Physical Geography | |||||
strategies OR policies | Biomedical social sciences | |||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | Physics | |||||
Mathematics | ||||||
Biotechnology Applied Microbiology | ||||||
Chemistry | ||||||
Energy fuels | ||||||
Food Science technology | ||||||
Forestry | ||||||
Geology | ||||||
Infectious diseases | ||||||
Metallurgy Metallurgical Engineering | ||||||
Nursing | ||||||
Obstetrics Gynecology | ||||||
Otorhinolaryngology | ||||||
Pharmacology Pharmacy | ||||||
Instrument Instrumentation | ||||||
General Internal Medicine | ||||||
Mechanics | ||||||
3 | BIM | BIM | + | Transport | Environmental Sciences Ecology | |
5D BIM | Rail OR Railway | Materials Science | ||||
Building information modelling | Cost Management OR Cost control | Chemistry | ||||
Physics | ||||||
cost model | Physical Geography | |||||
life cycle cost | Energy fuels | |||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | Remote Sensing | |||||
Instrument Instrumentation | ||||||
Biotechnology Applied Microbiology | ||||||
Geology | ||||||
Imaging Science Photographic Technology | ||||||
Robotics | ||||||
Agriculture | ||||||
Biophysics | ||||||
Cell Biology | ||||||
Mechanics | ||||||
Oncology | ||||||
Acoustics | ||||||
Astronomy Astrophysics | ||||||
Biomedical social science | ||||||
Endocrinology Metabolism | ||||||
Food science technology | ||||||
Geography | ||||||
Hematology | ||||||
Mechanics | ||||||
Neuroscience Neurology | ||||||
Optics | ||||||
Physiology | ||||||
Sociology | ||||||
4 | Rail projects | Rail | + | BIM OR 5D BIM | Environmental Sciences | |
Railway | Cost Management OR Cost control | Environmental Sturdies | ||||
cost model | Material Sciences Multidisciplinary | |||||
life cycle cost | Automation control systems | |||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | Chemistry Multidisciplinary | |||||
Geography Physical | ||||||
Instrument Instrumentation | ||||||
Robotics | ||||||
Geography | ||||||
Energy fuels | ||||||
Geoscience Multidisciplinary | ||||||
Health Care Sciences Services | ||||||
Medical informatics | ||||||
Remote sensing | ||||||
Total |
Science Direct | ||||||
* Year 2000–2023 | ||||||
** Exclude book chapters | ||||||
*** Review articles + Research Article + Short communications | ||||||
No | Cluster | Keywords | Research Focus (All fields) | Excluded subject areas | ||
1 | Cost Overrun | cost overrun | + | Transport | - | Medicine and Dentistry |
cost overruns | Rail OR Railway | Environmental Science | ||||
cost escalation | BIM OR 5D BIM | |||||
budget overrun | Cost Management OR Cost control | |||||
project | ||||||
cost model | ||||||
causes OR sources OR drivers | ||||||
life cycle cost | ||||||
2 | Cost Management & Control | cost management | + | Transport | - | Medicine and Dentistry |
cost control | Rail OR Railway | Environmental Science | ||||
Project cost management | BIM OR 5D BIM | Agricultural and Biological Sciences | ||||
cost model | ||||||
life cycle cost | ||||||
strategies OR policies | ||||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | ||||||
3 | BIM | BIM | + | Transport | - | Medicine and Dentistry |
5D BIM | Rail OR Railway | Environmental Science | ||||
Building information modelling | Cost Management OR Cost control | Agricultural and Biological Sciences | ||||
cost model | ||||||
life cycle cost | ||||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | ||||||
4 | Rail Projects | Rail | + | BIM OR 5D BIM | Mathematics | |
Railway | Cost Management OR Cost control | Environmental Science | ||||
cost model | Psychology | |||||
life cycle cost | ||||||
cost overrun OR cost overruns OR cost escalation OR budget overrun | ||||||
Total |
Google Scholar | |||
* Year 2000–2023 | |||
** Document title only | |||
No | Cluster | search words (in title only) | |
1 | Cost overrun | Cost overrun model | |
Cost overruns model | |||
cost overruns cause | |||
cost overruns causes | |||
cost overrun cause | |||
cost overruns drivers | |||
cost overrun drivers | |||
cost overrun transport | |||
cost overruns transport | |||
cost overrun rail | |||
cost overruns rail | |||
cost overruns life cycle cost | |||
cost overrun BIM | |||
2 | Cost Management & Control | Cost management transport | |
cost management rail | |||
cost management railway | |||
cost management BIM | |||
cost management overrun | |||
cost management overruns | |||
cost control transport | |||
cost control rail | |||
cost control railway | |||
cost control BIM | |||
cost control life cycle cost | |||
project cost management BIM | |||
3 | BIM | BIM transport | |
BIM rail | |||
BIM railway | |||
BIM cost model | |||
4 | Rail projects | Rail life cycle cost | |
Railway life cycle cost | |||
Total |
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BIM Dimension | Descriptions | Characteristics |
---|---|---|
3D | Geometry dimensions | 3D building data and information, field layout and civil data, reinforcement and structure analysis, existing model data. |
4D | 3D + Scheduling data (time) | Project schedule and phasing, just-in-time schedule, installation schedule, payment visual approval, last planner schedule, critical point. |
5D | 4D + Cost data | Conceptual cost planning, quantity extraction to cost estimation, trade verification, value engineering, prefabrication. |
6D | 5D + Sustainability data | Energy analysis, green building element, green building certification tracking, green building point tracking. |
7D | 6D + Lifecycle info (operation and maintenance) | Building life cycles, BIM as built data, BIM cost operation and maintenance, BIM digital lend lease planning. |
Software Package/Tool | Utilization | References |
---|---|---|
VOS viewer | SLR data visualization and analysis. | [122] |
Covidence | References screening, filtering, tagging and blind review. | [123] |
CiteSpace | Analysing SLR clusters/trends and patterns. | [124] |
EndNote and Mendeley | Manage/share/sort references library throughout the SLR process. | [125,126] |
Microsoft Excel | Data collection, storage and visualisation. | [127] |
Main Sources | ||
---|---|---|
1 | Scopus | https://www.scopus.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
2 | Science Direct | https://www.sciencedirect.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
3 | Web of Science (new website) | https://www.webofscience.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
Additional sources | ||
4 | Google Scholar | https://scholar.google.com (accessed on 8 January 2023) |
Tag | No | Conference Paper | Journal Paper | Book | Thesis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
BIM for Construction | 136 | 34 | 100 | 1 | 1 |
BIM for Construction; Cost Management and Control | 244 | 76 | 165 | 0 | 3 |
BIM for Infrastructure | 51 | 19 | 31 | 0 | 1 |
BIM for Infrastructure; BIM for Rail; Cost Management and Control; Rail | 35 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 3 |
BIM for Infrastructure; BIM for Rail; Rail | 191 | 67 | 118 | 2 | 4 |
BIM for Infrastructure; Cost Management and Control | 55 | 18 | 37 | 0 | 0 |
Cost Management and Control | 896 | 259 | 611 | 18 | 8 |
Cost Management and Control; Rail | 180 | 51 | 127 | 0 | 2 |
Rail | 100 | 29 | 68 | 2 | 1 |
Total | 1888 | 565 | 1277 | 23 | 23 |
Group | Research Theme | Key Authors/References |
---|---|---|
1 | Cost overrun | [9,40,42,105,142,143,144,145,146,147] |
2 | Cost causation | [148,149,150,151] |
3 | BIM implementation impact on project cost management | [47,152,153,154] |
4 | Integrating BIM into railway projects | [22,155,156,157] |
5 | BIM utilization in railway design | [158,159,160,161,162,163,164] |
6 | Cost overrun typology in infrastructure projects | [165,166,167,168] |
7 | Smart railway systems | [169,170] |
8 | Cost modelling, risk and contingency calculations | [171,172,173,174,175,176,177,178,179,180] |
9 | Cost overrun impact assessment | [181] |
10 | Target costing process and design | [182,183,184,185] |
11 | Railway lifecycle costing | [186,187,188,189,190] |
12 | Project performance and cost control | [191,192,193,194,195,196,197] |
13 | BIM and sustainability | [198] |
14 | BIM implementation analysis | [152,153,199,200,201,202,203,204,205] |
15 | Utilizing BIM and immerging technologies in railway industry | [206,207,208] |
Cluster ID | Size | Silhouette | Label (LLR) | Average Year |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 179 | 0.628 | Railway infrastructure | 2011 |
1 | 155 | 0.617 | Building Information Modeling | 2014 |
2 | 153 | 0.668 | Construction project | 2008 |
3 | 107 | 0.609 | Demand forecast | 2015 |
4 | 95 | 0.830 | Cost-effectiveness analysis | 2009 |
5 | 75 | 0.744 | Supply chain | 2008 |
6 | 67 | 0.817 | Cost deviation | 2013 |
7 | 51 | 0.820 | Construction contract | 2008 |
8 | 32 | 0.882 | Cost control | 2012 |
9 | 17 | 0.943 | Troubled project | 2007 |
Issues | Challenges |
---|---|
Technical | Handling of growing file sizes |
Lack of standardized data exchange | |
Lack of proper design software | |
Personal | Change attitude and mindset of people |
Motivate people | |
To have the same understanding of BIM within the whole project team | |
Process | Transition from 2D to 3D design characteristics |
Absence of standardized data exchange | |
BIM only works if the client is completely convinced to use BIM |
Key Cost Overrun Causes | Corresponding BIM Advantage |
---|---|
Poor planning [6,232] | Improved planning processes [233,234]. |
Strategic misrepresentation, i.e., lying [40]. | Transparency in decision making and data sharing [234,235] |
Forecasting errors including price rises, poor project design, and incompleteness of estimations [236,237,238]. | Improved cost management for design stage [19,239,240] |
Scope changes [241]. | Improved scope control [240]. |
Poor cost estimation [242]. | Improved cost estimation processes [19,239]. |
Frequent design change during construction phase [242]. | Improved change management during design process [243,244]. |
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© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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Hussain, O.A.I.; Moehler, R.C.; Walsh, S.D.C.; Ahiaga-Dagbui, D.D. Minimizing Cost Overrun in Rail Projects through 5D-BIM: A Systematic Literature Review. Infrastructures 2023, 8, 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8050093
Hussain OAI, Moehler RC, Walsh SDC, Ahiaga-Dagbui DD. Minimizing Cost Overrun in Rail Projects through 5D-BIM: A Systematic Literature Review. Infrastructures. 2023; 8(5):93. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8050093
Chicago/Turabian StyleHussain, Osama A. I., Robert C. Moehler, Stuart D. C. Walsh, and Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui. 2023. "Minimizing Cost Overrun in Rail Projects through 5D-BIM: A Systematic Literature Review" Infrastructures 8, no. 5: 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8050093
APA StyleHussain, O. A. I., Moehler, R. C., Walsh, S. D. C., & Ahiaga-Dagbui, D. D. (2023). Minimizing Cost Overrun in Rail Projects through 5D-BIM: A Systematic Literature Review. Infrastructures, 8(5), 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures8050093