1. Introduction
Fractional calculus theory analysis and applications have become topics of great interest in current scientific research. The wider application background of fractional calculus has attracted the attention of many scholars from various fields, resulting in abundant research results [
1,
2,
3,
4]. In the field of finance, because of the “memory effect” of fractional calculus, fractional order equations can describe the long-term logarithmic prices of some financial assets well [
5]. Compared with integer calculus, the main advantage of fractional calculus is its memory, and it has been proven to be a very suitable tool for describing the memory and genetic characteristics of various materials and processes. Financial and economic variables have a longer memory, and therefore, it is more appropriate to use fractional differential equation models to portray the dynamic behavior of economic systems, such as, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, production, and stock market prices, which are changing in terms of the financial and economic system. This provides a scientific approach to predict economic growth.
The study of the complex dynamics of economic systems has become a prominent issue in economics and macroeconomics in recent years. Several nonlinear continuous models have been proposed to explicate the core features of economic data based on the dynamic behavior of the system [
6,
7,
8,
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14,
15]. The results of investigating the dynamics of an economic system with chaotic behavior and a suboptimal control proposal to suppress the chaotic behavior are presented [
8]. A fractional order economic quantity model with time-varying holding cost is discussed in detail with the help of numerical computations [
9]. Based on the definition of Atangana–Baleanu–Caputo fractional derivative, the integer-order financial chaotic system with nonconstant demand elasticity is extended to a fractional-order system, and its nonlinear dynamic properties are analyzed [
10]. The chaotic complexity of a financial mathematical model in terms of a new generalized Caputo fractional derivative is analyzed [
11]. The conditions for the structural stability of a fractional order IS-LM-AS dynamic model with adaptive expectations are given [
12]. A dynamic fractional-order discrete gray model for forecasting China’s total renewable energy capacity is proposed [
13]. A fault-tolerant prescribed performance control approach for fractional-order economic and supply chain systems is presented [
14].
Predicting economic growth is an important subject in economics, and accurate prediction can facilitate integrated economic planning and the development of rational economic policies to promote healthy economic growth [
16,
17,
18]. In previous studies, scholars mainly focused on the chaotic motion of the financial system, and domestic scholars have achieved certain research results on economic growth by introducing delays. The Solow growth model [
19] provides a theoretical foundation for breakthroughs in economic growth and a research framework that can be applied in subsequent work. And the Solow growth model demonstrates how saving rates, capital stock, the labor force growth rate, technological progress, and capital depreciation influence a country’s total output. The economy tends towards a stable state and emphasizes that technological progress is the ultimate driving force for long-term growth based on Solow’s theory. Because most economic processes are not only influenced by current states but also greatly rely on past relevant factors and indicators, mathematical models with time delay are more suitable for describing economic phenomena. Recently, the global attractivity of the quasi-periodicity of a new class of delayed classical growth models are proved [
20]. The fractional order models serve to forecast the economic growth of Group of Twenty countries [
21]. Based on the Solow model, a fractional-order time-delayed economic growth model is established to effectively capture memory characteristics in the economic growth path and explore the underlying growth factors [
22]. Many results have been achieved using the Solow economic model [
22,
23,
24,
25], and it still has significant theoretical and practical value, particularly when considering fractional calculus theory, which is expected to yield meaningful results.
The economic system is an organic whole composed of interconnected and interactive economic elements. When addressing the issues related to the economic system, it is necessary to consider not only its economic benefits but also the impact of such benefits on the ecological environment [
26]. The environment system has a certain self-regulation and self-recovering capacity. However, excessive pollution beyond its self-regulating capacity can cause irreversible damage. Therefore, the stability of the economic system still depends on the capacity of the environment system, external material exchange, and energy flow [
27,
28]. Furthermore, environmental pollution will inevitably have an impact on the economy, such as water pollution affecting crops [
29,
30]. Serious economic losses caused by nuclear pollution in Fukushima, Japan have affected economic development [
31,
32]. To better characterize the dynamic laws of the operation of economic and environmental systems, economic and environment systems are integrated to form an environmental economic growth system. Economic growth has always been an issue of great interest in macroeconomic research. However, with rapid economic growth, environmental pollution has posed a serious threat to human social development. Using the interplay between economic growth and environmental quality to analyze that negative impact has a certain time lag; that is, it is not instantaneous [
26]. Economic growth, environmental pollution, and studies on the interactive influence between economic growth and environmental pollution are considered in Wuhan [
33]. The importance and significance of the fractional order derivatives in the nonlinear environmental and economic model are provided [
34].
Therefore, in this paper, environmental factors are incorporated into the classic Solow economic growth model, with the consideration that the main indicators in the economic environment system have the characteristic of “memory”, and a novel fractional-order time-delayed economic growth model with environmental purification is established. According to the Solow model, a fractional time-delayed economic model with environmental purification is provided to characterize the relationship between economic growth and environmental factors. Based on the strict assumption that technological progress is completely exogenous, the traditional Solow economic growth model is inconsistent with practical experience. Furthermore, environmental pollution will inevitably have an impact on the economy. Accordingly, with the consideration of environmental purification, a fractional economic growth model related to both capital and population is established in which technological progress is endogenous. Furthermore, a detailed stability analysis of the proposed model based on environmental purification is performed. The asymptotic stability condition of the equilibrium point is obtained and a stable parameter interval is provided. The influence of parameter variations on the stability of the established model is investigated.
The paper is structured as follows. In
Section 2, some preliminaries and model descriptions are presented. The asymptotic stability conditions and parameter stability interval of the fractional-order time-delayed growth model with environmental pollution are provided in
Section 3. Finally, a numerical simulation and discussion are given in
Section 4 and
Section 5.
3. Main Results
In this section, the focus is the local stability of system (
5). Lemma 1 is a local stability theorem for system (
5). Local properties can be analyzed for stability using the eigenvalue distribution of
. Thus, simplification (part of linearization) is performed in this step. Note that
and
, and then
; hence,
is considered. The equation
is approximated to first order using the Taylor expansion, which meets the approximation requirement. According to Equation (
6),
. If
, then
. Therefore,
, that is, it is approximated by a linear function. The ability of environmental purification is related to the level of environmental pollutants. When the level of pollutants is low, the self-purification ability of the environmental system is strong. However, when the level of pollutants reaches a certain upper limit, the self-purification ability of the environment gradually weakens. This characteristic can be described using Hill functions. Hence,
To obtain the stability conditions of system (
5),
can be chosen. Then,
The simplification of system (
5) can be obtained:
The functional relationship in Equation (
7) is as follows:
Remark 2. Actually, the functional relationship in system (7) is In order to obtain the local stability of system (5), the Equation (6) is reduced as Equation (8). If Equation (6) is used, the equilibrium point equation is difficult to solve, and the Jacobian determinant at the equilibrium point is also quite complex. Hence, it is very hard to obtain stability conditions and the parameter stability interval of system (5). However, according to the facts mentioned, in [38,43], the consideration here is locality, which means that linear equations conform to the linear form of the model. Therefore, when fractional-order systems have the same linear form, their stability can be studied through their linear equations, regardless of the complexity of the original equations. Thus, the simplification Equation (8) is reasonable. Based on this fact, to obtain stability conditions, the parameter is considered. Theorem 1. When and , if , , , and , or , the positive equilibrium point of system (7) is locally asymptotically stable by Lyapunov, where χ is any real root of the equation , and the coefficients of the equation are given aswhere and satisfyand the is a solution of the equation Proof. If
,
and
, from the Equation (
7), we can obtain the equilibrium solution equation as follows:
Assume a positive equilibrium point
is derived from Equation (
11), then the linear centralized system (
7) at the point
can be written as:
where
and
and
are the Jacobian matrices at equilibrium point
as
where
The Laplace transform is applied to both sides of system (
12), and the characteristic matrix is given as:
The
is calculated as
where
The Equation (
14) has no pure imaginary roots for any
which is verified for the next part. We testify the fact by contradiction. When
, there are obviously no pure imaginary roots in the equation
. Hence, the following equation is considered:
Assume that
is one of the pure imaginary roots of Equation (
15), where
is a positive real number. Taking
into Equation (
15) yields
Both the real part and imaginary part of Equation (
16) are zero, so we have
and
The following is considered:
Thus, from Equations (
17) and (
18), we can obtain
Sum the squares of two equations in Equation (
20) on both sides:
Expressions
,
,
and
are substituted, which yields
where
If
and
satisfy the inequality
or
, there exists no real roots in Equation (
22), where
is any real root of the equation
; so, for any
, the characteristic equation
has no pure imaginary roots.
If
, the matrix
of Equation (
12) is
and its characteristic equation is
Its eigenvalues
can be obtained. When
, then
Based on (
25), the four eigenvalues of the matrix
have negative real parts, and all the eigenvalues of
satisfy
. Based on Lemma 1, the positive equilibrium point
of system (
7) is asymptotically stable by Lyapunov. This completes the proof. □
Remark 3. In this paper, a fractional-order time-delayed economic growth model with environmental purification is proposed. The established model considers not only the environment and economic production but also the labor force population and total factor productivity. The delayed fractional-order economic growth model without pollution is given in [22]. So, our results obtained in this paper are further extended results than [22] on the analysis between the environment and economic production. According to Equation (
11),
Based on Equation (
26), it is noteworthy that the equilibrium points
and
are not easy to obtain. Hence, certain conditions are provided to facilitate the determination of the equilibrium points. The corresponding stability conditions are provided as two corollaries.
Corollary 1. If , when , , , , , , , and or , then the positive equilibrium point of system (7) is locally asymptotically stable by Lyapunov, where χ is any real root of the equation , and the coefficients of the equation are given as Proof. If
, as a result of taking
, then
Solving the Equation (
28), we can obtain the positive solution
of system (
7) as
Based on Equation (
29), the coefficients can be computed as
According to the stability conditions in Theorem 1, if , it can be concluded that . According to and , it can be concluded that .
Furthermore, according to Equation (
9),
This completes the proof. □
Corollary 2. If , when , , , , , , , , and or , then the positive equilibrium point of system (7) is locally asymptotically stable by Lyapunov, where χ is any real root of the equation , and the coefficients of the equation are given by Proof. If
,
and
, taking
, then we can obtain
Solving the equations, and getting the unique positive solution
of system (
7)
Based on Equation (
32), the coefficients can be computed as
According to the stability conditions in Theorem 1, when
, it can be concluded that
, if
,
,
are obtained.
According to Equation (
9),
This completes the proof. □
Remark 4. Note that, if coefficient , this means that economic losses and production capital caused by pollution are not considered in the economic growth model. In [22], the prediction of China’s economic growth based on the delayed fractional-order economic growth model without pollution is discussed and potential economic growth factors are explored. Based on this model, by considering the fractional orders as parameters and optimizing them, an appropriate fractional order based on the economic data of China from 1978 to 2020 is found and China’s GDP in the next 30 years is predicted using the fractional-order delayed economic growth model. The factors that drive short-term high-speed economic growth are also found. The results indicate that China has a declining population dividend and capital accumulation deceleration. Therefore, the TFP is increasing along with technological progress and innovation. Based on the fractional-order economic growth model in [22], the environmental purification factor is considered in this paper. 4. Numerical Analysis
In this section, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is demonstrated through three numerical examples, and the impact of system parameters is further investigated.
The ABM predictor–corrector algorithm [
44] and the computed step
are used to solve the fractional-order time-delayed economic growth model with environmental purification. The specific values of some parameters of system (
7) are shown in
Table 2.
Remark 5. The time delay τ is chosen as . According to [22], the fitting result with time delay matches the original best. Analysis shows that when , which represents the case without time delay, capital stock will be slightly overestimated because historical states are ignored. By contrast, when , because of the excessive emphasis on the role and impact of economic variables in the capital accumulation that results from considering previous historical values, the historical data of will be underestimated. Therefore, the time delay is chosen properly. Inputting these coefficients into model (
7) yields a more specific model as follows:
Example 1. are used to verify Theorem 1.
The initial value is chosen as
. From Equation (
11), we can calculate the positive equilibrium point of system (
33) and obtain
.Those can be obtained through further calculation:
It is verified that the corresponding conditions in Theorem 1 are fulfilled. Based on Theorem 1, the positive equilibrium point
is asymptotically stable. The convergence behaviors of the solution curve of system (
33) about fractional order
q are shown in
Figure 1. From
Figure 1, the smaller the fractional order, the slower the convergence speed.
Example 2. are used to verify Corollary 1. The initial value is chosen. From Equation (11), the positive equilibrium point of system (33) is obtained as . The corresponding conditions are satisfied in Corollary 1. Then, the positive equilibrium point
is asymptotically stable. The convergence behaviors of the solution curve of system (
33) about the fractional order
q are shown in
Figure 2. From
Figure 2, the smaller the fractional order, the slower the convergence speed. Similar numerical results for Corollary 2 can be obtained. Hence, verification is omitted.
Remark 6. According to Theorem 1, the condition is satisfied. This condition also can be given by Corollaries 1 and 2. Furthermore, is obtained. According to [16,45], countries that have high savings/investment rates tend to be richer. If stable economic growth is to be maintained, saving rates need to be higher than the pollution rate, otherwise it will be difficult to achieve economic growth. Hence, this condition is perfectly logical and reasonable. Next, if this condition is not satisfied, is the system (33) still stable? Example 3. The initial value is chosen. The parameters of the system (33) are chosen as are chosen.
are obtained. Then, system (
33) is unstable, which is shown as
Figure 3a. A locally enlarged view of
is also shown as
Figure 3a.
are chosen,
is obtained. Then, system (
33) is unstable, as shown in
Figure 3b. A locally enlarged view of
is also shown in
Figure 3b. However, when
are chosen,
is obtained. Then, system (
33) is also unstable, as shown in
Figure 3c. A locally enlarged view of
is also shown in
Figure 3c. If
are chosen,
is obtained. Then, system (
33) is stable. The equilibrium point
is asymptotically stable by Lyapunov, as shown in
Figure 3d. Hence, the condition
is a sufficient condition.
5. Discussion
Note that the conditions
in the stability analysis of model (
33), when
, approximate waste pollution
as a linear function. When
, the function
; hence, the natural purification capacity is not considered in model (
33). In this section, the effect of parameters
in the model (
33) is mainly considered.
Parameters from Example 1 are considered:
Then, system (
33) becomes
When
, according to Example 1, system (
34) is stable. If
and
, system (
34) has a non-negative equilibrium point. When
and
, system (
34) has a non-negative real equilibrium point. When
,
are chosen and system (
34) is asymptotically stable. Additionally, the convergence behavior of the solution curve of system (
34) is given in
Figure 4. The influence of
on convergent behavior about
is shown in
Figure 4a.
is shown in
Figure 4b and
is shown in
Figure 4c. From
Figure 4,
,
, and
decrease along with
increasing. This conclusion is drawn from system (
34) (
,
,
). However,
remains unchanged along with
increasing, as shown in
Figure 4d.
When
and
, system (
34) is asymptotically stable by Lyapunov. This numerical result is similar to
,
. When
are chosen,
Figure 5 shows the convergence behavior of the solution curve of the system (
34). Taking
and
, the convergence behaviors of system (
34) are similar. So, using
is reasonable for getting the asymptotic stability conditions.