Bayesian Statistical Methods for Forecasting

A special issue of Symmetry (ISSN 2073-8994). This special issue belongs to the section "Mathematics".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 May 2025 | Viewed by 300

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Institute of Matematics, Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande 79070-900, MS, Brazil
Interests: statistical modeling; Bayesian inference; prediction; computational statistical methods; mixture models

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Departamento de Matemática Aplicada e Estatística, Universidade de São Paulo, São Carlos 13566-590, Brazil
Interests: Bayesian inference; computational statistical methods; statistical modeling; survival analysis

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In many statistical modeling problems, the main interest is to fit a model that explains the observed data well and can provide accurate predictions. In this context, Bayesian inference emerges as a very interesting option because its probabilistic framework allows for the obtainment of a prediction distribution that describes the uncertainty associated with future outcomes. This interesting characteristic of the Bayesian approach, together with the increasing availability of computational resources, has made the use of Bayesian methods for forecasting more accessible and applicable to forecasting problems from all fields of science. The idea of this Special Issue is to publish a collection of articles in which forecasting (point and interval) using Bayesian inference is the main topic. Submitted articles must address the theoretical and computational development of Bayesian forecasting procedures using symmetric or asymmetric probabilities distributions as well as finite mixture of symmetric or asymmetric distributions. However, articles describing the use of well-established computational methods to generate Bayesian forecasting in practical problems using regression models, time series, and survival analysis, among others, as well as articles reviewing Bayesian forecasting considering some specific symmetric or asymmetric distributions, are welcome.

Prof. Dr. Erlandson Ferreira Saraiva
Prof. Dr. Adriano K. Suzuki
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • posterior analysis
  • Bayesian forecasting
  • Bayesian computational methods
  • credible intervals

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

25 pages, 3161 KiB  
Article
Estimation and Bayesian Prediction for the Generalized Exponential Distribution Under Type-II Censoring
by Wei Wang and Wenhao Gui
Symmetry 2025, 17(2), 222; https://doi.org/10.3390/sym17020222 - 2 Feb 2025
Viewed by 238
Abstract
This research focuses on the prediction and estimation problems for the generalized exponential distribution under Type-II censoring. Firstly, maximum likelihood estimations for the parameters of the generalized exponential distribution are computed using the EM algorithm. Additionally, confidence intervals derived from the Fisher information [...] Read more.
This research focuses on the prediction and estimation problems for the generalized exponential distribution under Type-II censoring. Firstly, maximum likelihood estimations for the parameters of the generalized exponential distribution are computed using the EM algorithm. Additionally, confidence intervals derived from the Fisher information matrix are developed and analyzed alongside two bootstrap confidence intervals for comparison. Compared to classical maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian inference proves to be highly effective in handling censored data. This study explores Bayesian inference for estimating the unknown parameters, considering both symmetrical and asymmetrical loss functions. Utilizing Gibbs sampling to produce Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples, we employ an importance sampling approach to obtain Bayesian estimates and compute the corresponding highest posterior density (HPD) intervals. Furthermore, for one-sample prediction and, separately, for the two-sample case, we provide the corresponding posterior distributions, along with methods for computing point predictions and predictive intervals. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the performance of Bayesian estimation in contrast to maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, we conduct an analysis of a real dataset derived from deep groove ball bearings, calculating Bayesian point predictions and predictive intervals for future samples. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Bayesian Statistical Methods for Forecasting)
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