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Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century
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Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 July 2024) | Viewed by 5265

Special Issue Editors

Dr. João Filipe Santos

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Guest Editor
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Polytechnic Institute of Beja, 7800-309 Beja, Portugal
Interests: advanced topics in water resources and environment; impact assessment; hydrology and water resources
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Nelson Carriço

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Guest Editor
Instituto Politécnico de Setúbal, Barreiro School of Technology, Rua Américo da Silva Marinho, 2839-001 Lavradio, Portugal
Interests: multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA); infrastructure asset management (IAM); hydraulic modeling; digitalization of urban water systems; water and energy efficiencies and circular economy
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

It is known that climate change will reinforce drought conditions over many regions of the world, necessitating strengthened human resilience.

An integrated drought risk assessment takes into account not only climate-induced changes but also changes occurring due to the exposure and vulnerability of communities and environmental systems to droughts events. To build upon humanity’s climate resilience, we must reduce our exposure and vulnerability to droughts as well as other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters, which presents a substantial challenge, particularly for populations living in countries with a low level of human development.

As observed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), plausible climate and socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs) have allowed for the formulation of important scenarios in the assessment of future drought risks at local and global scales through the incorporation of population growth, socioeconomic human development and other factors acting as proxies of vulnerability.

This Special Issue is intended to explore the links between human vulnerability, as one of the main risk components of natural hazards, and drought risk assessment methodologies under climate change scenarios, with the aim of contributing to the realization of the SDGs by 2030.

Prof. Dr. João Filipe Santos
Dr. Nelson Carriço
Guest Editors

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • drought risk assessment
  • climate change
  • human and environmental vulnerability
  • resilience building
  • IPCC scenarios

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Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

29 pages, 17733 KiB  
Article
Long-Term Spatiotemporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Evapotranspiration Across Arid Asia and Africa
by Akinwale T. Ogunrinde, Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Xue Xian, Haipeng Yu, Qiqi Jing and Oluwaseun Temitope Faloye
Water 2024, 16(22), 3161; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16223161 - 5 Nov 2024
Viewed by 649
Abstract
This study examines trends in precipitation (PRE), maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator between 1901 and 2022 in the arid lands of Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The [...] Read more.
This study examines trends in precipitation (PRE), maximum temperature (TMAX), minimum temperature (TMIN), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) using the Modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator between 1901 and 2022 in the arid lands of Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa. The results reveal complex spatial and temporal climate change patterns across the study area. Annual PRE shows a slight negative trend (Z = −0.881, p = 0.378), with significant decreases from 1951–2000 (Z = −3.329, p = 0.001). The temperatures exhibit strong warming trends (TMIN: Z = 9.591, p < 0.001; TMAX: Z = 8.405, p < 0.001). PET increased significantly (Z = 6.041, p < 0.001), with acceleration in recent decades. Spatially, precipitation decreased by 10% in maximum annual values, while PET increased by 10–15% in many areas. Temperature increases of 2–3 °C were observed, with TMAX rising from 36–39 °C to 39–42 °C in some MENA regions. Seasonal analysis shows winter precipitation decreasing significantly in recent years (Z = −1.974, p = 0.048), while summer PET shows the strongest increasing trend (Z = 5.647, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis revealed clear latitudinal gradients in temperature and PET, with higher values in southern regions. PRE patterns were more complex, with coastal and mountainous areas receiving more precipitation. The combination of rising temperatures, increasing PET, and variable PRE trends suggest an overall intensification of aridity in many parts of the region. This analysis provides crucial insights into the climate variability of these water-scarce areas, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies in water resource management, agriculture, and ecosystem conservation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century)
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23 pages, 10381 KiB  
Article
Modeling and Application of Drought Monitoring with Adaptive Spatial Heterogeneity Using Eco–Geographic Zoning: A Case Study of Drought Monitoring in Yunnan Province, China
by Quanli Xu, Shan Li, Junhua Yi and Xiao Wang
Water 2024, 16(17), 2500; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172500 - 3 Sep 2024
Viewed by 763
Abstract
Drought, characterized by frequent occurrences, an extended duration, and a wide range of destruction, has become one of the natural disasters posing a significant threat to both socioeconomic progress and agricultural livelihoods. Large-scale geographical environments often exhibit obvious spatial heterogeneity, leading to significant [...] Read more.
Drought, characterized by frequent occurrences, an extended duration, and a wide range of destruction, has become one of the natural disasters posing a significant threat to both socioeconomic progress and agricultural livelihoods. Large-scale geographical environments often exhibit obvious spatial heterogeneity, leading to significant spatial differences in drought’s development and outcomes. However, traditional drought monitoring models have not taken into account the impact of regional spatial heterogeneity on drought, resulting in evaluation results that do not match the actual situation. In response to the above-mentioned issues, this study proposes the establishment of ecological–geographic zoning to adapt to the spatially stratified heterogeneous characteristics of large-scale drought monitoring. First, based on the principles of ecological and geographical zoning, an appropriate index system was selected to carry out ecological and geographical zoning for Yunnan Province. Second, based on the zoning results and using data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43, the vegetation condition index (VCI), the temperature condition index (TCI), the precipitation condition index (TRCI), and three topographic factors including the digital elevation model (DEM), slope (SLOPE), and aspect (ASPECT) were selected as model parameters. Multiple linear regression models were then used to establish integrated drought monitoring frameworks at different eco–geographical zoning scales. Finally, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to evaluate the monitoring effects of the model, and the spatiotemporal variation patterns and characteristics of winter and spring droughts in Yunnan Province from 2008–2019 were further analyzed. The results show that (1) compared to the traditional non-zonal models, the drought monitoring model constructed based on ecological–geographic zoning has a higher correlation and greater accuracy with the SPEI and (2) Yunnan Province experiences periodic and seasonal drought patterns, with spring being the peak period of drought occurrence and moderate drought and light drought being the main types of drought in Yunnan Province. Therefore, we believe that ecological–geographic zoning can better adapt to geographical spatial heterogeneity characteristics, and the zonal drought monitoring model constructed can more effectively identify the actual occurrence of drought in large regions. This research finding can provide reference for the formulation of drought response policies in large-scale regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century)
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21 pages, 6176 KiB  
Article
Drought Characterization in Croatia Using E-OBS Gridded Data
by João F. Santos, Lidija Tadic, Maria Manuela Portela, Luis Angel Espinosa and Tamara Brleković
Water 2023, 15(21), 3806; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213806 - 31 Oct 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1624
Abstract
Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world, with huge multi-dimensional impacts. An extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented for continental Croatia based on a meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° × 0.25°), within the [...] Read more.
Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world, with huge multi-dimensional impacts. An extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented for continental Croatia based on a meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° × 0.25°), within the period of 1950–2022. The drought events were characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), applied to different time-scales (6 and 12 months), in order to describe the subannual and annual variability of drought. The spatiotemporal patterns of drought are obtained through principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering (KMC) applied to the SPEI field. An areal drought evolution analysis and the changes in the frequency of occurrence of the periods under drought conditions were achieved using a kernel occurrence rate estimator (KORE). The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, coupled with the Sen’s slope estimator test, are applied to the SPEI series in order to quantify the drought trends throughout the country. According to the history drought events and considering the different morphoclimatic characteristics of the study area, the results showed that Croatia could be divided into three different and spatially well-defined regions with specific temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts (central northern, eastern and southern regions). A manifest increase is shown in the percentage of area affected by drought, as well as in the yearly drought occurrences rates, in both central northern and eastern regions, and an evident decrease is shown in the southern region for both 6- and 12-month SPEI time-scales. In the observation of the drought’s temporal characteristics, it was found that downward trends expressing increasing drought severities were strongly significant in northern and eastern regions, while a few significant upward trends were seen in the southern region. From this study, it is possible to obtain a broader view of the historical behaviour of droughts in Croatia, with the results providing useful support for drought risk assessment and decision-making processes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century)
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16 pages, 3841 KiB  
Article
Compound Extremes of Droughts and Pluvials: A Review and Exploration of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Associated Risks in the Canadian Prairies
by Elaine Wheaton, Barrie Bonsal and David Sauchyn
Water 2023, 15(19), 3509; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15193509 - 8 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1458
Abstract
The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks including significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and [...] Read more.
The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks including significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and planned reductions to vulnerability, particularly in light of a warming climate. A logical starting point involves awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. We focus on the compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials as the risks from this type of event are magnified compared to the hydroclimatic extremes in isolation. Compound droughts and pluvials (CDP) are drought and pluvial events that occur in close succession in time or in close proximity in area. Also, research on CDP is limited even for the worldwide literature. Therefore, the purposes of this paper are to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of CDP, and to provide examples of past occurrences, with a focus on the Canadian Prairies. Since literature from the Prairies is limited, global work is also reviewed. That literature indicates increasing concern and interest in CDP. Relationships between drought and pluvials are also characterized using the SPEI Global Monitor for the Prairies, emphasizing the recent past. Research mostly considers drought and pluvials as separate events in the Prairies, but is integrated here to characterize the relationships of these extremes. The spatiotemporal patterns showed that several of the extreme to record pluvials were found to be closely associated with extreme droughts in the Prairies. The intensities of the extremes and their dry to wet boundaries were described. This is the first research to explore the concept of and to provide examples of CDP for the Prairies and for Canada. Examples of CDP provide insights into the regional hydroclimatic variability. Furthermore, most literature on future projections strongly suggests that this variability is likely to increase, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, improved methods to characterize and to quantify CDP are required. These findings suggest means of decreasing vulnerability and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is relevant to other regions that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century)
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