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Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment
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Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water Resources Management, Policy and Governance".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2013) | Viewed by 163855

Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Athanasios Loukas

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Guest Editor
Department of Rural and Surveying Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Interests: surface hydrology; water resource management and engineering; climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources; extreme hydrological events (floods and droughts)
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Thomas R. Kjeldsen

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Guest Editor
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The purpose of the proposed special issue is to publish selected papers presented in the international conference “Advanced Methods for Flood Estimation in a Variable and Changing Environment” which has been held in Volos, Greece, 24-26 October 2012 (http://www.cost-floodfreq.eu/activities/conf-worksh/advanced-methods-for-flood-estimation-in-a-variable-and-changing-environment and other independent papers, after peer review. The conference was part of the activities of the COST Action ES0901 “European Procedures for Flood Frequency Estimation—FloodFreq” (http://www.cost-floodfreq.eu/home ). The main objective of the Action is to undertake a Pan-European comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe, and different levels of data availability. A scientific framework for assessing the ability of these methods to predict the impact of environmental change on future flood frequency characteristics (flood occurrence and magnitude) is developed and tested. The aim of the conference was to be a forum for the presentation of the findings of the Action as well as research from scientists/engineers, not affiliated with the Action, from Europe and to instigate discussion on the flood estimation and research.

The papers, presented in the session, cover a wide range of topics such as statistical methods for flood frequency estimation, flood frequency analysis using rainfall-runoff methods, regional flood frequency analysis, predicting design floods in ungauged basins, analysis of historical floods, predicting and adapting to flood hazard and risk in a changing environment, statistical downscaling methods for projection of hydrological extremes, risk based design for flood management in a nonstationary environment.

The submission and reviewing process will be the regular process followed by the Water and it will be supervised by the two Guest Editors. The selected papers for the special issue will undergo peer review and only those passed the review process and they are up to the standards of Water will be published.

Prof. Dr. Athanasios Loukas
Dr. Thomas R. Kjeldsen
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Published Papers (16 papers)

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Research

927 KiB  
Article
Retention and Curve Number Variability in a Small Agricultural Catchment: The Probabilistic Approach
by Kazimierz Banasik, Agnieszka Rutkowska and Silvia Kohnová
Water 2014, 6(5), 1118-1133; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6051118 - 29 Apr 2014
Cited by 24 | Viewed by 7290
Abstract
The variability of the curve number (CN) and the retention parameter (S) of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS)-CN method in a small agricultural, lowland watershed (23.4 km2 to the gauging station) in central Poland has been assessed using the probabilistic approach: distribution fitting [...] Read more.
The variability of the curve number (CN) and the retention parameter (S) of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS)-CN method in a small agricultural, lowland watershed (23.4 km2 to the gauging station) in central Poland has been assessed using the probabilistic approach: distribution fitting and confidence intervals (CIs). Empirical CNs and Ss were computed directly from recorded rainfall depths and direct runoff volumes. Two measures of the goodness of fit were used as selection criteria in the identification of the parent distribution function. The measures specified the generalized extreme value (GEV), normal and general logistic (GLO) distributions for 100-CN and GLO, lognormal and GEV distributions for S. The characteristics estimated from theoretical distribution (median, quantiles) were compared to the tabulated CN and to the antecedent runoff conditions of Hawkins and Hjelmfelt. The distribution fitting for the whole sample revealed a good agreement between the tabulated CN and the median and between the antecedent runoff conditions (ARCs) of Hawkins and Hjelmfelt, which certified a good calibration of the model. However, the division of the CN sample due to heavy and moderate rainfall depths revealed a serious inconsistency between the parameters mentioned. This analysis proves that the application of the SCS-CN method should rely on deep insight into the probabilistic properties of CN and S. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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4262 KiB  
Article
Integrated River and Coastal Hydrodynamic Flood Risk Mapping of the LaHave River Estuary and Town of Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, Canada
by Tim Webster, Kevin McGuigan, Kate Collins and Candace MacDonald
Water 2014, 6(3), 517-546; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6030517 - 21 Mar 2014
Cited by 26 | Viewed by 15583
Abstract
Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, is located 20 km inland from the mouth of the LaHave River estuary on the Atlantic Coast of Canada. Bridgewater is at risk of flooding due to the combined effects of river runoff and a storm surge on top of [...] Read more.
Bridgewater, Nova Scotia, is located 20 km inland from the mouth of the LaHave River estuary on the Atlantic Coast of Canada. Bridgewater is at risk of flooding due to the combined effects of river runoff and a storm surge on top of high tide. Projected increases in sea-level and possible increased river runoff with climate change increase the risk of future flooding. A set of river and ocean water level simulations were carried out to determine the risk of flooding to Bridgewater today and in the future under climate change. The hydrodynamic simulation developed incorporates return periods of a time series of river discharge measurements for the LaHave watershed, ocean water dynamics at the mouth of the river under normal tidal conditions and with two levels of storm surge, near shore and river bathymetry, as well as high precision topographic lidar derived ground elevations and survey grade GPS. The study was supported by data from two tide gauge sensors, and qualitative evidence provided by the community such as historical flood levels and photographs. Results show that areas upstream of the town are vulnerable to large discharge events of the LaHave River. The downtown waterfront and infrastructure are not susceptible to fluvial flooding, but is vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm surge flooding. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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1623 KiB  
Article
Integration of a Hydrological Model within a Geographical Information System: Application to a Forest Watershed
by Dimitris Fotakis, Epameinondas Sidiropoulos and Athanasios Loukas
Water 2014, 6(3), 500-516; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6030500 - 19 Mar 2014
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 8123
Abstract
Watershed simulation software used for operational purposes must possess both dependability of results and flexibility in parameter selection and testing. The UBC watershed model (UBCWM) contains a wide spectrum of parameters expressing meteorological, geological, as well as ecological watershed characteristics. The hydrological model [...] Read more.
Watershed simulation software used for operational purposes must possess both dependability of results and flexibility in parameter selection and testing. The UBC watershed model (UBCWM) contains a wide spectrum of parameters expressing meteorological, geological, as well as ecological watershed characteristics. The hydrological model was coupled to the MapInfo GIS and the software created was named Watershed Mapper (WM). WM is endowed with several features permitting operational utilization. These include input data and basin geometry visualization, land use/cover and soil simulation, exporting of statistical results and thematic maps and interactive variation of disputed parameters. For the application of WM two hypothetical scenarios of forest fires were examined in a study watershed. Four major rainfall events were selected from 12-year daily precipitation data and the corresponding peak flows were estimated for the base line data and hypothetical scenarios. A significant increase was observed as an impact of forest fires on peak flows. Due to its flexibility the combined tool described herein may be utilized in modeling long-term hydrological changes in the context of unsteady hydrological analyses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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3474 KiB  
Article
Real Time Estimation of the Calgary Floods Using Limited Remote Sensing Data
by Emily Schnebele, Guido Cervone, Shamanth Kumar and Nigel Waters
Water 2014, 6(2), 381-398; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6020381 - 18 Feb 2014
Cited by 60 | Viewed by 11515
Abstract
Every year, flood disasters are responsible for widespread destruction and loss of human life. Remote sensing data are capable of providing valuable, synoptic coverage of flood events but are not always available because of satellite revisit limitations, obstructions from cloud cover or vegetation [...] Read more.
Every year, flood disasters are responsible for widespread destruction and loss of human life. Remote sensing data are capable of providing valuable, synoptic coverage of flood events but are not always available because of satellite revisit limitations, obstructions from cloud cover or vegetation canopy, or expense. In addition, knowledge of road accessibility is imperative during all phases of a flood event. In June 2013, the City of Calgary experienced sudden and extensive flooding but lacked comprehensive remote sensing coverage. Using this event as a case study, this work illustrates how data from non-authoritative sources are used to augment traditional data and methods to estimate flood extent and identify affected roads during a flood disaster. The application of these data, which may have varying resolutions and uncertainities, provide an estimation of flood extent when traditional data and methods are lacking or incomplete. When flooding occurs over multiple days, it is possible to construct an estimate of the advancement and recession of the flood event. Non-authoritative sources also provide flood information at the micro-level, which can be difficult to capture from remote sensing data; however, the distibution and quantity of data collected from these sources will affect the quality of the flood estimations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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1513 KiB  
Article
Hydrological Flood Simulation Using a Design Hyetograph Created from Extreme Weather Data of a High-Resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model
by Nobuaki Kimura, Akira Tai, Shen Chiang, Hsiao-Ping Wei, Yuan-Fong Su, Chao-Tzuen Cheng and Akio Kitoh
Water 2014, 6(2), 345-366; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6020345 - 5 Feb 2014
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 8770
Abstract
To understand the characteristics of severe floods under global climate change, we created a design hyetograph for a 100-year return period. This incorporates a modified ranking method using the top 10 extreme rainfall events for present, near-future, and far-future periods. The rainfall data [...] Read more.
To understand the characteristics of severe floods under global climate change, we created a design hyetograph for a 100-year return period. This incorporates a modified ranking method using the top 10 extreme rainfall events for present, near-future, and far-future periods. The rainfall data sets were projected with a general circulation model with high spatial and temporal resolution and used with a flood model to simulate the higher discharge peaks for the top 10 events of each term in a local watershed. The conventional-like ranking method, in which only a dimensionless shape is considered for the creation of a design hyetograph for a temporal distribution of rainfall, likely results in overestimates of discharge peaks because, even with a lower peak of rainfall intensity and a smaller amount of cumulative rainfall, the distribution shape is the only the factor for the design hyetograph. However, the modified ranking method, which considers amounts of cumulative rainfalls, provides a discharge peak from the design hyetograph less affected by a smaller cumulative rainfall depth for extreme rainfall. Furthermore, the effects of global climate change indicate that future discharge peaks will increase by up to three times of those of Present-term peaks, which may result in difficult flood control for the downstream river reaches. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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1493 KiB  
Article
Flood Risk Impact Factor for Comparatively Evaluating the Main Causes that Contribute to Flood Risk in Urban Drainage Areas
by Masaru Morita
Water 2014, 6(2), 253-270; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6020253 - 27 Jan 2014
Cited by 41 | Viewed by 11255
Abstract
Among the various factors that contribute to flood risk, heavy storms, inadequate storm drainage systems, and the concentration of population and assets have usually been considered to be fundamental factors affecting flood damage. Climate change is also a real threat, bringing heavier and [...] Read more.
Among the various factors that contribute to flood risk, heavy storms, inadequate storm drainage systems, and the concentration of population and assets have usually been considered to be fundamental factors affecting flood damage. Climate change is also a real threat, bringing heavier and more frequent storms. This study presents a methodology for comparatively evaluating the impact of the flood risk factors using a GIS-based flood damage prediction model (FDPM). The FDPM calculates flood inundation depths using the XP-SWMM routine and monetary flood damages using a flood damage estimation model for various storms and catchment conditions. The concept of flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage and the probability of its occurrence. This study produces a flood risk structure in a risk assessment framework. The method is applied to the Kiba drainage area in Tokyo, Japan. The study gives a quantitative evaluation of the changes in flood risk due to risk factors such as increase in asset values, flood control, and climate change using a flood risk impact factor (FRIF). The FRIF is introduced as an index to evaluate the impact of various sources of increased or reduced flood risk to society. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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825 KiB  
Article
Temporal Variability of Monthly Daily Extreme Water Levels in the St. Lawrence River at the Sorel Station from 1912 to 2010
by Ali Assani, Raphaëlle Landry, Mikaël Labrèche, Jean-Jacques Frenette and Denis Gratton
Water 2014, 6(2), 196-212; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6020196 - 27 Jan 2014
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 6393
Abstract
Although climate models predict that the impacts of climate change on the temporal variability of water levels in the St. Lawrence River will be seasonally-dependent, such a seasonal effect on the current variability of extreme water levels has never been analyzed. To address [...] Read more.
Although climate models predict that the impacts of climate change on the temporal variability of water levels in the St. Lawrence River will be seasonally-dependent, such a seasonal effect on the current variability of extreme water levels has never been analyzed. To address this, we analyzed the temporal variability of three hydrological variables (monthly daily maximums and minimums, as well as their ratio) of water levels in the St. Lawrence River measured at the Sorel station since 1912, as they relate to climate indices. As for stationarity, the shifts in the mean values of maximum and minimum water levels revealed by the Lombard method took place prior to 1970 for spring water levels, but after that year, for winter water levels. Changes in the winter stationarity are thought to mainly relate to the decreasing snowfall observed in the St. Lawrence River watershed after 1970. In contrast, for spring, these changes are likely primarily related to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams). Two shifts in the mean values of fall minimum extreme water levels were highlighted. The first of these shifts, which occurred in the first half of the 1960s decade, can also be linked to human activity (digging of the St. Lawrence Seaway and construction of dams), whereas the second shift, observed after the 1970s for the months of November and December, can be linked to decreasing amounts of snow in winter. AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) is the climate index that is most frequently correlated negatively with the hydrologic variables, mainly in winter and spring. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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658 KiB  
Article
Inter-Event Time Definition Setting Procedure for Urban Drainage Systems
by Jingul Joo, Jungho Lee, Joong Hoon Kim, Hwandon Jun and Deokjun Jo
Water 2014, 6(1), 45-58; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6010045 - 27 Dec 2013
Cited by 54 | Viewed by 12422
Abstract
Traditional inter-event time definition (IETD) estimate methodologies generally take into account only rainfall characteristics and not drainage basin characteristics. Therefore, they may not succeed in providing an appropriate value of IETD for any sort of application to the design of urban drainage system [...] Read more.
Traditional inter-event time definition (IETD) estimate methodologies generally take into account only rainfall characteristics and not drainage basin characteristics. Therefore, they may not succeed in providing an appropriate value of IETD for any sort of application to the design of urban drainage system devices. To overcome this limitation, this study presents a method of IETD determination that considers basin characteristics. The suggested definition of IETD is the time period from the end of a rainfall event to the end of a direct runoff. The suggested method can identify the independent events that are suitable for the statistical analysis of the recorded rainfall. Using the suggested IETD, the IETD of the Joong-Rang drainage system was determined and the area-IETD relation curve was drawn. The resulting regression curve can be used to determinate the IETD of ungauged urban drainage systems, with areas ranging between 40 and 4400 ha. Using the regression curve, the IETDs and time distribution of the design rainfall for four drainage systems in Korea were determined and rainfall-runoff simulations were performed with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results were compared with those from Huff's method which assumed a six-hour IETD. The peak flow rates obtained by the suggested method were 11%~15% greater than those obtained by Huff’s method. The suggested IETD determination method can identify independent events that are suitable for the statistical analysis of the recorded rainfall aimed at the design of urban drainage system devices. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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1848 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Version-7 TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis Product during the Beijing Extreme Heavy Rainfall Event of 21 July 2012
by Yong Huang, Sheng Chen, Qing Cao, Yang Hong, Biwen Wu, Mengyu Huang, Lei Qiao, Zengxin Zhang, Zhe Li, Weiyue Li and Xiuqin Yang
Water 2014, 6(1), 32-44; https://doi.org/10.3390/w6010032 - 27 Dec 2013
Cited by 75 | Viewed by 10862
Abstract
The latest Version-7 (V7) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products were released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in December of 2012. Their performance on different climatology, locations, and precipitation types is of great interest to the [...] Read more.
The latest Version-7 (V7) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) products were released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in December of 2012. Their performance on different climatology, locations, and precipitation types is of great interest to the satellite-based precipitation community. This paper presents a study of TMPA precipitation products (3B42RT and 3B42V7) for an extreme precipitation event in Beijing and its adjacent regions (from 00:00 UTC 21 July 2012 to 00:00 UTC 22 July 2012). Measurements from a dense rain gauge network were used as the ground truth to evaluate the latest TMPA products. Results are summarized as follows. Compared to rain gauge measurements, both 3B42RT and 3B42V7 generally captured the rainfall spatial and temporal pattern, having a moderate spatial correlation coefficient (CC, 0.6) and high CC values (0.88) over the broader Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin (HBT) regions, but the rainfall peak is 6 h ahead of gauge observations. Overall, 3B42RT showed higher estimation than 3B42V7 over both HBT and Beijing. At the storm center, both 3B42RT and 3B42V7 presented a relatively large deviation from the temporal variation of rainfall and underestimated the storm by 29.02% and 36.07%, respectively. The current study suggests that the latest TMPA products still have limitations in terms of resolution and accuracy, especially for this type of extreme event within a latitude area on the edge of coverage of TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager. Therefore, TMPA users should be cautious when 3B42RT and 3B42V7 are used to model, monitor, and forecast both flooding hazards in the Beijing urban area and landslides in the mountainous west and north of Beijing. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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581 KiB  
Article
Hydraulic Features of Flow through Emergent Bending Aquatic Vegetation in the Riparian Zone
by Jihong Xia and Launia Nehal
Water 2013, 5(4), 2080-2093; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5042080 - 13 Dec 2013
Cited by 21 | Viewed by 8425
Abstract
Vegetation in riparian zones has a significant influence on resistance, velocity distribution and turbulence intensity. This study experimentally investigated the effect of emergent bending riparian zone vegetation on the flow. The results showed that the frond and stem parts of Acorus calami had [...] Read more.
Vegetation in riparian zones has a significant influence on resistance, velocity distribution and turbulence intensity. This study experimentally investigated the effect of emergent bending riparian zone vegetation on the flow. The results showed that the frond and stem parts of Acorus calami had different influences on hydraulic features and that the relative depth ratio of water depth h to stem height hs was a key determinant of those influences. Manning coefficient n varied greatly with the variation of vegetation densities, relative depth ratio of water depth h to stem height hs, Re and Fr. Manning coefficient n increased with increasing vegetation density, particularly in cases when h/hs > 1. The velocity distributions did not follow logarithmic profiles, but they instead exhibited double logarithmic profiles. In addition, vegetation characteristics were shown to influence the height of maximum velocity. The position of maximum velocity is further away from the bed in cases with denser vegetation distribution. Finally, turbulence intensity showed more significant variation in the stem part and peaked near the middle of the stem, at z/hs = 0.5, where z was the distance from the bottom. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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2028 KiB  
Article
Dry/Wet Conditions Monitoring Based on TRMM Rainfall Data and Its Reliability Validation over Poyang Lake Basin, China
by Xianghu Li, Qi Zhang and Xuchun Ye
Water 2013, 5(4), 1848-1864; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041848 - 19 Nov 2013
Cited by 55 | Viewed by 8152
Abstract
Local dry/wet conditions are of great concern in regional water resource and floods/droughts disaster risk management. Satellite-based precipitation products have greatly improved their accuracy and applicability and are expected to offer an alternative to ground rain gauges data. This paper investigated the capability [...] Read more.
Local dry/wet conditions are of great concern in regional water resource and floods/droughts disaster risk management. Satellite-based precipitation products have greatly improved their accuracy and applicability and are expected to offer an alternative to ground rain gauges data. This paper investigated the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall data for monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin during 1998–2010, and validated its reliability with rain gauges data from 14 national meteorological stations in the basin. The results show that: (1) the daily TRMM rainfall data does not describe the occurrence and contribution rates of precipitation accurately, but monthly TRMM data have a good linear relationship with rain gauges rainfall data; (2) both the Z index and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on monthly TRMM rainfall data oscillate around zero and show a consistent interannual variability as compared with rain gauges data; (3) the spatial pattern of moisture status, either in dry months or wet months, based on both the Z index and SPI using TRMM data, agree with the observed rainfall. In conclusion, the monthly TRMM rainfall data can be used for monitoring the variation and spatial distribution of dry/wet conditions in Poyang Lake basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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417 KiB  
Article
Magnitude Frequency Analysis of Small Floods Using the Annual and Partial Series
by David Keast and Joanna Ellison
Water 2013, 5(4), 1816-1829; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041816 - 18 Nov 2013
Cited by 34 | Viewed by 7434
Abstract
Flood frequency analysis using partial series data has been shown to provide better estimates of small to medium magnitude flood events than the annual series, but the annual series is more often employed due to its simplicity. Where partial series average recurrence intervals [...] Read more.
Flood frequency analysis using partial series data has been shown to provide better estimates of small to medium magnitude flood events than the annual series, but the annual series is more often employed due to its simplicity. Where partial series average recurrence intervals are required, annual series values are often “converted” to partial series values using the Langbein equation, regardless of whether the statistical assumptions behind the equation are fulfilled. This study uses data from Northern Tasmanian stream-gauging stations to make empirical comparisons between annual series and partial flood frequency estimates and values provided by the Langbein equation. At T = 1.1 years annual series estimates were found to be one third the magnitude of partial series estimates, while Langbein adjusted estimates were three quarters the magnitude of partial series estimates. The three methods converged as average recurrence interval increased until there was no significant difference between the different methods at T = 5 years. These results suggest that while the Langbein equation reduces the differences between the quantile estimates of annual maxima derived from annual maxima series and partial duration series flood frequency estimates, it does not provide a suitable alternative method to using partial series data. These results have significance for the practical estimation of the magnitude-frequency of small floods. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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2149 KiB  
Article
Impact of Damaging Geo-Hydrological Events and Population Development in Calabria, Southern Italy
by Olga Petrucci, Angela Aurora Pasqua and Maurizio Polemio
Water 2013, 5(4), 1780-1796; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041780 - 13 Nov 2013
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 7626
Abstract
Damaging geo-Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena (such as landslides and floods) that can cause damage to people and goods during periods of bad weather. These phenomena should be analyzed together as they actually occur because their interactions [...] Read more.
Damaging geo-Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena (such as landslides and floods) that can cause damage to people and goods during periods of bad weather. These phenomena should be analyzed together as they actually occur because their interactions can both amplify the damage and obstruct emergency management. The occurrence of DHEs depends on the interactions between climatic and geomorphological features: except for long-term climatic changes, these interactions can be considered constant, and for this reason, some areas are systematically affected. However, damage scenarios can change; events that occurred in the past could presently cause different effects depending on the modifications that occurred in the geographical distribution of vulnerable elements. We analyzed a catastrophic DHE that in 1951 affected an area 3700 km2 wide, located in Calabria (southern Italy), with four-day cumulative rainfall exceeding 300 mm and return periods of daily rain exceeding 500 Y. It resulted in 101 victims and 4500 homeless individuals. The probability that a similar event will happen again in the future is assessed using the return period of the triggering rainfall, whereas the different anthropogenic factors are taken into account by means of the population densities at the time of the event and currently. The result is a classification of regional municipalities according to the probability that events such as the one analyzed will occur again in the future and the possible effects of this event on the current situation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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226 KiB  
Article
Flood Risk in Australia: Whose Responsibility Is It, Anyway?
by Pamela Box, Frank Thomalla and Robin Van den Honert
Water 2013, 5(4), 1580-1597; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041580 - 7 Oct 2013
Cited by 31 | Viewed by 11018
Abstract
This paper presents research into four key stakeholders in flood risk management in Australia: local councils, the insurance industry, the State Emergency Service (SES), and local residents; examining the perception of their own roles and responsibilities, and those of the other stakeholders. Key [...] Read more.
This paper presents research into four key stakeholders in flood risk management in Australia: local councils, the insurance industry, the State Emergency Service (SES), and local residents; examining the perception of their own roles and responsibilities, and those of the other stakeholders. Key informant interviews were conducted in four locations—Brisbane and Emerald, in Queensland, Dora Creek, in New South Wales, and Benalla, in Victoria. We find that understanding of the roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder varied considerably between research participants. Insurance representatives felt their concerns about increasing flood risk costs were unheeded until the 2010–2011 floods made them the “canary in the coal mine”. Councils felt they had limited options for reducing flood risk. SES representatives felt they were too relied upon for event response, with requests for assistance outstripping their capacity to assist, and many residents were uncertain how to prepare for flood, relying on emergency agencies and the local council to protect them. Key lessons for flood risk management in Australia are (a) an urgent need for all stakeholders to better understand each others’ roles and responsibilities; and (b) residents must take greater responsibility for their own personal protection. Only then can the vision of shared responsibility presented by the 2009 National Strategy for Disaster Resilience be achieved. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
705 KiB  
Article
Uncertainties in Flow-Duration-Frequency Relationships of High and Low Flow Extremes in Lake Victoria Basin
by Charles Onyutha and Patrick Willems
Water 2013, 5(4), 1561-1579; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5041561 - 30 Sep 2013
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 8405
Abstract
This paper focuses on uncertainty analysis to aid decision making in applications of statistically modeled flow-duration-frequency (FDF) relationships of both daily high and low flows. The analysis is based on 24 selected catchments in the Lake Victoria basin in Eastern Africa. The FDF [...] Read more.
This paper focuses on uncertainty analysis to aid decision making in applications of statistically modeled flow-duration-frequency (FDF) relationships of both daily high and low flows. The analysis is based on 24 selected catchments in the Lake Victoria basin in Eastern Africa. The FDF relationships were derived for aggregation levels in the range 1–90 days for high flows and 1–365 days for low flows. The validity of the projected FDF quantiles for high return periods T was checked using growth factor curves. Monte Carlo simulations were used to construct confidence intervals CI on both the estimated Ts for given flows and the estimated FDF quantiles for given T. The average bias of the modeled T of high and low flows are for all catchments and Ts up to 25 years lower than 8%. Despite this relatively small average bias in the modeled T, the limits of the CI on the modeled 25-year flows go up to more than 100% for high flows and more than 150% for low flows. The assessed FDF relationships and accompanied uncertainties are useful for various types of risk based water engineering and water management applications related to floods and droughts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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Article
Integrating Decentralized Rainwater Management in Urban Planning and Design: Flood Resilient and Sustainable Water Management Using the Example of Coastal Cities in The Netherlands and Taiwan
by Thorsten Schuetze and Lorenzo Chelleri
Water 2013, 5(2), 593-616; https://doi.org/10.3390/w5020593 - 10 May 2013
Cited by 30 | Viewed by 19129
Abstract
Urbanized delta areas worldwide share a growing tendency of exposure to water stress induced by the effects of climate change and anthropogenic factors, threatening the operation of infrastructure systems and future urban development. The important synergistic impacts coexisting with freshwater scarcity are increasing [...] Read more.
Urbanized delta areas worldwide share a growing tendency of exposure to water stress induced by the effects of climate change and anthropogenic factors, threatening the operation of infrastructure systems and future urban development. The important synergistic impacts coexisting with freshwater scarcity are increasing urbanization rates, subsiding soils, saltwater intrusion in aquifers and rivers, coastal erosion, and increased flooding. Innovative design strategies and concepts for the integration of decentralized rainwater management measures can contribute to the integrated and climate resilient planning of urban spaces that are threatened by climate change scenarios that worsen the security of urban infrastructures and the future availability of fresh water. Decentralized rainwater management, including retention, storage, and reuse strategies that are integrated into spatial planning and urban design, can reduce flood risks while simultaneously enhancing freshwater availability. This paper discusses a paradigm shift in urban water management, from centralized to decentralized management (that is, from threats to opportunities), using the example of two case studies. Concepts and strategies for building climate resilient cities, which address flood control, the protection of freshwater resources, and the harmonization of a natural and more sustainable water balance, are presented for Almere (Rhine Schelde Delta, The Netherlands) and Hsingchu (Dotzpu Delta, Taiwan). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood Estimation and Analysis in a Variable and Changing Environment)
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