Investigation of Diverse Urban Carbon Emission Reduction Pathways in China: Based on the Technology–Organization–Environment Framework for Promoting Socio-Environmental Sustainability

In the context of global carbon emissions and climate change, identifying context-specific low-carbon pathways for urban areas is critical for achieving socio-environmental sustainability. This study applies the technology–organization–environment (TOE) framework to examine the driving mechanisms and the diversity in carbon reduction pathways across 81 cities in China. Utilizing partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and necessary condition analysis (NCA), this research assesses the roles of technological, organizational, and environmental drivers in urban carbon reduction. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is employed to uncover distinct carbon reduction pathways and causal asymmetries between cities. The findings reveal that technological, organizational, and environmental factors significantly drive carbon reduction, with technological and organizational factors playing the central roles. Environmental factors exert primarily indirect effects, interacting with technological and organizational drivers. This study categorizes cities into three distinct carbon reduction models: cities with high carbon-neutral potential primarily leverage technological innovation and energy efficiency optimization; cities with moderate potential integrate technology and policy, emphasizing green landscape planning to achieve balanced development; and cities with lower carbon reduction potential are mainly policy-driven, constrained by technological and resource limitations. This study underscores the role of computational modeling in providing valuable insights for the development of context-tailored carbon reduction strategies. It highlights the synergetic interactions among technological, organizational, and environmental factors, offering essential guidance for advancing sustainable development planning and facilitating the low-carbon transition of cities and communities.