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Volume 14
Issue 2
10.3390/land14020277
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Article

Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy

by
Davide Berardi
,
Marta Galuppi
*,
Angelo Libertà
and
Mara Lombardi
Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment (DICMA), Sapienza-University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, 00184 Rome, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Land 2025, 14(2), 277; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14020277
Submission received: 6 December 2024 / Revised: 17 January 2025 / Accepted: 28 January 2025 / Published: 29 January 2025
Versions Notes

Abstract

The growing need to address natural and human-induced disasters while protecting territory remains a key focus for the scientific community. Effective emergency management, especially during wildfires, requires coordinated responses to safeguard lives and assets. This study develops hazard maps to aid emergency planning in Italy and estimate territorial resilience indicators. Focusing on wildfire ignition hazards in Ischia, the study uses a probabilistic model based on fifteen years of wildfire data (2009–2023). By analyzing ignition points and employing a Poisson distribution, it correlates ignition probabilities with vegetation types. The hazard maps reveal that wildfire risk is primarily influenced by the wildland–urban interface and vegetation characteristics, emphasizing the need to integrate territorial and urban factors into wildfire forecasting. The findings also suggest areas for refining the model to enhance risk mitigation strategies.
Keywords: ignition points; wildfire forecasting; wildland–urban interface; vulnerability assessment; spatial distribution; fire resilience ignition points; wildfire forecasting; wildland–urban interface; vulnerability assessment; spatial distribution; fire resilience

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MDPI and ACS Style

Berardi, D.; Galuppi, M.; Libertà, A.; Lombardi, M. Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy. Land 2025, 14, 277. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14020277

AMA Style

Berardi D, Galuppi M, Libertà A, Lombardi M. Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy. Land. 2025; 14(2):277. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14020277

Chicago/Turabian Style

Berardi, Davide, Marta Galuppi, Angelo Libertà, and Mara Lombardi. 2025. "Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy" Land 14, no. 2: 277. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14020277

APA Style

Berardi, D., Galuppi, M., Libertà, A., & Lombardi, M. (2025). Forecasting of Wildfire Probability Occurrence: Case Study of a Mediterranean Island of Italy. Land, 14(2), 277. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14020277

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