Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders and Disease Transmission Hotspots Using White-Tailed Deer Scraping Networks
Abstract
:Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Site Description
2.2. Scrape Monitoring
2.3. Social Network Analysis
2.4. QGIS Mapping and Hotspot Prediction
3. Results
3.1. Generating Multiple Community WTD Scraping Networks
3.2. Scraping Networks Depict Direct Social Contacts
3.3. Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders Using Scraping Networks
3.4. Predatory Activity and Hunting Activity Influences Scraping Networks
3.5. Hunter Harvest and Potential Super-Spreader Management Reduces Transmission Risk
3.6. Potential Transmission Hotspots and Community Crossroads
4. Discussion
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Social Network Measure | Disease Relevance |
---|---|
Degree: the total number of incoming and outgoing connections an individual has in a network. | Individuals with high degree are more likely to become infected and spread infection during an outbreak. |
Weighted Degree: the frequency of an individual’s social interactions with other individuals within a network. | Higher degree weights correlate with increased risk of disease transmission within social groups. |
Outdegree: the number of outgoing connections an individual has in a network (can be weighted or unweighted). | Individuals with high outdegree scores have a greater potential to spread disease to more individuals within a network. |
Indegree: the number of incoming connections an individual has in a network (can be weighted or unweighted). | Individuals with high indegree scores are at a greater risk of becoming infected from multiple individuals within a network. |
Betweenness: the number of times an individual occurs on the shortest path between two other individuals within the network. | Betweenness scores describe the potential of an individual to spread infection by bridging multiple individuals or communities within a network. |
Closeness: the path length from an individual to another individual in the network. | Smaller closeness values indicate a closer relationship between individuals, where disease transmission via direct contact is more likely to occur. |
Triangles: the number of groups of three connected individuals. | The more triangles within a network represent strong connectivity and a higher potential for disease outbreak as compared to less connected networks. |
Average Path Length: the average social distance between individuals within a network. | Networks with smaller average path transmit disease more efficiently as compared to networks with larger average path lengths. |
Network Density: the proportion of connected individuals out of all possible connections within a network. | Network density scores measure the disease outbreak potential within a network. Networks with higher network density are at a greater risk of disease outbreak as compared to networks with lower network density. |
Community: a group of nodes within a network that have a higher probability of being connected to each other as compared to the rest of the network. | A network with a small number of highly connected communities has a greater outbreak risk as compared to networks with a larger number of less connected communities. |
Transmission Hotspot: a cluster of location points with characteristics that are significantly higher than the population mean. | Hotspots are locations where the disease transmission risk or outbreak potential is higher as compared to other locations. |
Community Crossroads: areas where multiple communities overlap or intersect. | Locations with high betweenness scores form community crossroads, where disease transmission from one community to another is most likely to occur. |
Location: | Site 1 | Site 2 | Site 3 | Regional Network |
---|---|---|---|---|
Digital Images Taken | 49,600 | 20,344 | 31,577 | 118,195 |
Number of Scrapes | 13 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
Number of Unique Males | 42 | 29 | 39 | 96 |
Unique Males per Scrape (Avg ± Stdev) | 5.2 ± 3.0 | 5.0 ± 3.5 | 12.3 ± 7.1 | 7.3 ± 5.5 |
Unique Males per Scrape (Min to Max) | 1 to 12 | 1 to 10 | 3 to 25 | 1 to 25 |
Ratio of Young Males to Mature Males | 2.9 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
Unweighted Connections | 476 | 318 | 1170 | 1729 |
Weighted Connections | 2494 | 1600 | 4162 | 9368 |
Network Density | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.88 | 0.22 |
Hunters per 100 Acers | 0.6 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
Male Deer Harvested | 3 | 0 | 11 | 23 |
Predator Activiy (Avg ± Stdev) | 0.9 ± 0.6 | 0.4 ± 0.3 | 8.8 ± 1.8 | 3.4 ± 4.7 |
Network Model | Average Degree | Average Weighted Degree | Average Triangles per Node | Average Path Length | Network Density | Number of Communities | Significance to Regional Network | Significance to All Networks |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Regional Network (n = 96) | 35.9 | 98.2 | 172.6 | 1.98 | 0.22 | 4 | n/a | n/a |
Hunter Harvested Network (n = 75) | 24.4 | 74.8 | 74.8 | 2.19 | 0.16 | 4 | p < 0.05 | Not Significant |
Out-degree Spreaders Removed (n = 76) | 16.9 | 33.9 | 40.5 | 2.58 | 0.11 | 6 | p < 0.05 | p < 0.05 |
In-degree Spreaders Removed (n = 76) | 19.6 | 50.1 | 65.1 | 2.39 | 0.13 | 4 | p < 0.05 | Not Significant |
Betweenness Spreaders Removed (n = 76) | 18.5 | 48.3 | 51.8 | 1.68 | 0.12 | 5 | p < 0.05 | Not Significant |
Potential Super-Spreaders | Deer Harvested | Youth Hunter Harvested | Adult Hunter Harvested |
---|---|---|---|
Out-Degree | 6 | 4 | 2 |
In-Degree | 8 | 4 | 4 |
Betweenness | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Total | 18 | 9 | 9 |
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Hearst, S.; Huang, M.; Johnson, B.; Rummells, E. Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders and Disease Transmission Hotspots Using White-Tailed Deer Scraping Networks. Animals 2023, 13, 1171. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13071171
Hearst S, Huang M, Johnson B, Rummells E. Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders and Disease Transmission Hotspots Using White-Tailed Deer Scraping Networks. Animals. 2023; 13(7):1171. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13071171
Chicago/Turabian StyleHearst, Scoty, Miranda Huang, Bryant Johnson, and Elijah Rummells. 2023. "Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders and Disease Transmission Hotspots Using White-Tailed Deer Scraping Networks" Animals 13, no. 7: 1171. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13071171
APA StyleHearst, S., Huang, M., Johnson, B., & Rummells, E. (2023). Identifying Potential Super-Spreaders and Disease Transmission Hotspots Using White-Tailed Deer Scraping Networks. Animals, 13(7), 1171. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani13071171