Lost person search and rescue (SAR) activities are civil protection activities carried out by search and rescue teams. A subject may be lost under various circumstances—such as tourists wandering off the hiking trail, children wandering off into wildlands, or older people with dementia wandering from home. Only in Croatia, Croatian Mountain Rescue Service carried out over 6000 missions since its establishment 60 years ago [
1]. When a person is lost, an incident of a lost person is reported, a
SAR team assembles in a time-critical manner and carries out activities aimed towards finding the lost person as soon as possible. SAR team members have a task to search a certain area and the operation is directed and coordinated by the
SAR manager. Each such incident and activity is different and has its own challenges, but the experience and intuition of the SAR team and manager can be of vital importance in critical situations. Experienced SAR managers will make decisions that will lead to the most effective completion of the task.
Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have infiltrated in all aspects of human activities [
2]. Today, ICT tools are used not only in the improvement of productivity, communication, lifestyle, and traveling, but can also be found in the domain of government management and public safety [
3]. In SAR activities, ICT tools, in its rudimentary form, are used as communication tools between team members. In its more sophisticated form, ICT tools can also serve as a
Decision Support System (DSS). DSS can be beneficial for optimal planning of SAR activities providing suggestions which are based on data, models and artificial intelligence.
This paper presents a methodology used and results achieved while developing an ICT-based tool whose intention is to be used by a search and rescue mission planning team for assessment of an area to be scanned by the team while searching the lost person. Our method makes suggestions of the direction of search, focus area and distance from IPP to be searched. In other words, the method suggests an irregularly shaped area to the SAR manager where a lost person should be searched for.
We describe the steps of the methodology for constructing algorithms—data pre-processing, development of regression models, transfer learning model calibration, simulation algorithm and construction of the proposed shape of the area that should be searched. We compared the results of the algorithms—shape of the proposed area with locations where the person was found from archived records and presented results.
1.1. Related Work
As already stated in the introduction, ICT tools can ease several tasks of organized SAR activities. In this work we will focus on the role of ICT systems in the task of determining the search area. Search area is the area searchers are screening to find out the new location of the lost person. There are various approaches in determining the search area.
First, we must distinguish that SAR can occur on the land and on the sea. When a person is lost at sea, the search area is determined with respect to sea currents, but the spatial features of the nearby coast can also be a valuable input for determining a more precise search area as proposed in [
4].
In cases when SAR occurs on land, the prediction of the new location of the lost person depends on many factors that can be roughly separated to (a) features of the lost person and (b) spatial features of the surrounding area. In our work, we deal with the search for a lost person in non-urban environments, and that is often referred to as wilderness search and rescue [
5]. Methodological search area prediction is based on a model, while subject of modelling can be the lost person or the area.
A model that describes lost person behaviour usually relies on an archive record of previous cases and statistics. The first documented attempt to analyze lost person behavior is when Father Lorenzo at the St. Gotthard Hospice, a monastery in Switzerland started recording missions of search and rescue in the Swiss Alps [
6] in 1783. Since then, there are several records of lost person search and rescue archive databases. Statistics compiled in the book [
7] was used as the first ground for search management. More recent archive database of previous SAR activities—International Search and Rescue Incident Database (ISRID) is the basis for lost person behavior analysis in [
8].
Lost person behavior has been most thoroughly studied in [
8]. In [
8] the author proposes a model of lost person behaviour based on the statistics obtained from the ISRID database. The model uses Euclidian distance tables and proposes a search area using the point radius method around IPP.
However, for a case study of Yosemite National Park, the proposed model has shown poor results so new statistics for only this area is proposed in [
9]. Evaluation of lost person behavior models was done in [
10]. The authors compared Euclidean distance tables from [
8] and watershed model from [
9] and proposed a novel model based on combining the two previous models. As we observe the differences between the model based on international statistics and the model based on local statistics, we can assume that in addition to the lost person behavior, the local characteristics of the terrain should be taken into account when estimating the search area.
Analysis of the terrain is most effectively performed by using Geographical information systems (GIS). GIS systems effectively manipulate multiple information about terrain characteristics such as digital elevation model, land cover, roads, sightseeings, etc. In [
11] authors present a GIS-based search and rescue decision support software. The software uses a model based on previous operations data and calculates the probability of a subject to be found in different segments of the search area. The output of the software is a heat map constructed by combining influencing features of the terrain. In [
12] authors integrated aspects of the terrain and lost person and used
Bayesian approach for predicting lost person behavior.
In contrast to similar systems, where the proposed search area is an area with the largest probability of finding the lost person having in mind the statistics of archived searches, we propose a new simulation-based approach. Our method is based on simulations of all possible behaviours and trajectories of walking and proposes the search area with all locations where the person can dwell after wondering from IPP.
The second novel aspect of our research is the usage of data science methods for modelling the speed of walking on non-urban terrain. Data science methods were already used for modelling the speed of walk-in urban areas.
Linear regression, as a common machine learning technique was used in [
13] for predicting the speed of walking. In [
14] the authors exploited a
latent terrain model to predict a traversal path of a subject moving. In [
15] authors used transfer learning to predict urban crowd movement patterns. However, lost person movement in the wilderness is different and needs different approaches than urban movement modelling.
Transfer learning [
16] has been successfully used in deep learning. With this approach, a neural network model is pre-trained with a large set of data and the learned features are used for the specification of the model for a particular domain where it is not possible to obtain a data set large enough for training the actual classifier or model. The same approach can be used for transfer learning of a linear regression model. In [
17] a method for refining a linear regression model that is initially trained for one domain to be used on another domain is described.
Cellular automata (CA) [
18] are simple mathematical models often used to investigate the summary effect of the collection of simple components. Their usefulness has been proved in many domains. Cellular automata have been used for traffic simulation [
19] and simulation of pedestrians walking [
20]. GIS-based cellular automata have been used for land-use change simulation [
21] and fire spread simulation [
22]. In the civil protection domain, cellular automata has been used to simulate evacuation routes in [
23].
In [
24] the authors used agent-based modelling to calculate the distribution of behaviors and compute the distributions of horizontal distances traveled in a fixed time.