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Volume 12
Issue 8
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Climate, Volume 12, Issue 8 (August 2024) – 20 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): This study presents a systematic review of scientific methodologies for estimating climate adaptation costs from 2010 to 2021. Employing the PRISMA 2020 protocol enhanced by generative AI, it identifies significant gaps in research, particularly for vulnerable areas and sectors critically affected by climate change. The results highlight the need for methodologies that use novel data sources, incorporate whole life cycle analyses, and address multiple impact domains to better inform adaptation strategies. View this paper
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14 pages, 4013 KiB  
Article
Harnessing Machine Learning to Decode the Mediterranean’s Climate Canvas and Forecast Sea Level Changes
by Cristina Radin, Veronica Nieves, Marina Vicens-Miquel and Jose Luis Alvarez-Morales
Climate 2024, 12(8), 127; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080127 - 22 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1421
Abstract
Climate change and rising sea levels pose significant threats to coastal regions, necessitating accurate and timely forecasts. Current methods face limitations due to their inability to fully capture nonlinear complexities, high computational costs, gaps in historical data, and bridging the gap between short-term [...] Read more.
Climate change and rising sea levels pose significant threats to coastal regions, necessitating accurate and timely forecasts. Current methods face limitations due to their inability to fully capture nonlinear complexities, high computational costs, gaps in historical data, and bridging the gap between short-term and long-term forecasting intervals. Our study addresses these challenges by combining advanced machine learning techniques to provide region-specific sea level predictions in the Mediterranean Sea. By integrating high-resolution sea surface temperature data spanning 40 years, we employed a tailored k-means clustering technique to identify regions of high variance. Using these clusters, we developed RNN-GRU models that integrate historical tide gauge data and sea surface height data, offering regional sea level predictions on timescales ranging from one month to three years. Our approach achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with correlation values ranging from 0.65 to 0.84 in regions with comprehensive datasets, demonstrating the model’s robustness. In areas with fewer tide gauge stations or shorter time series, our models still performed moderately well, with correlations between 0.51 and 0.70. However, prediction accuracy decreases in regions with complex geomorphology. Yet, all regional models effectively captured sea level variability and trends. This highlights the model’s versatility and capacity to adapt to different regional characteristics, making it invaluable for regional planning and adaptation strategies. Our methodology offers a powerful tool for identifying regions with similar variability and providing sub-regional scale predictions up to three years in advance, ensuring more reliable and actionable sea level forecasts for Mediterranean coastal communities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Addressing Climate Change with Artificial Intelligence Methods)
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18 pages, 1171 KiB  
Article
Adaptation and Coping Strategies of Women to Reduce Food Insecurity in an Era of Climate Change: A Case of Chireya District, Zimbabwe
by Everjoy Magwegwe, Taruberekerwa Zivengwa and Mashford Zenda
Climate 2024, 12(8), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080126 - 22 Aug 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1783
Abstract
The research investigated how women employ various adaptation and coping mechanisms to alleviate food insecurity resulting from the impacts of climate change. The documentation of the debate on the role of women in adaptation and coping with climate change is relatively limited. Climate [...] Read more.
The research investigated how women employ various adaptation and coping mechanisms to alleviate food insecurity resulting from the impacts of climate change. The documentation of the debate on the role of women in adaptation and coping with climate change is relatively limited. Climate change’s effect on food security in semi-arid areas could potentially increase the population of individuals residing in severe poverty. Over the past three decades, Africa’s sub-tropics have experienced irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts, which have negatively affected agriculture and food production. This research utilized a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches within a mixed-method design, guided by the pragmatic paradigm. Based on the results of the study, water harvesting/dam construction and income generating projects (IGPs) were identified as the most effective coping strategies for women. This study recommends implementing awareness campaigns to educate women farmers about the negative effects of climate change and the need for integrated and comprehensive capacity-building frameworks. By understanding the challenges women face in adapting to and coping with climate change, it is hoped that more effective and sustainable solutions can be developed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Interdisciplinary Perspectives)
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19 pages, 3709 KiB  
Article
A Common Climate–Yield Relationship for Wheat and Barley in Japan and the United Kingdom
by Shoko Ishikawa, Takahiro Nakashima, Martin C. Hare and Peter S. Kettlewell
Climate 2024, 12(8), 125; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080125 - 20 Aug 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1058
Abstract
Wheat and barley yields in Japan are considerably lower than those in the UK, even where similar Climate Zones (CZs) of relatively cold and humid nature are shared. In order to understand this difference, it is first necessary to find out if any [...] Read more.
Wheat and barley yields in Japan are considerably lower than those in the UK, even where similar Climate Zones (CZs) of relatively cold and humid nature are shared. In order to understand this difference, it is first necessary to find out if any common climate–yield relationship exists between the two countries. The Climate Zonation Scheme (CZS) developed in the Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) was used to analyse actual yield (Ya) with three climatic factors of the GYGA-CZS, i.e., growing degree days (GDD), aridity index (AI) and temperature seasonality (TS). A significant relationship was found between AI scores and Ya values across the two countries. Ya values decreased with an increase in AI scores; in other words, lower yields are associated with higher AI scores. In addition, the degree of yield reduction with the rise in AI scores was greater in Japan than in the UK. The present study also proposed a novel method to link CZs of the GYGA-CZS to regional classification units, especially for countries where statistical crop yield data are available only at a coarse scale. Full article
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23 pages, 4131 KiB  
Article
Evidence of Climate Change and the Conservation Needed to Halt the Further Deterioration of Small Glacial Lakes
by Spase Shumka, Laura Shumka, Maria Špoljar and Lulëzim Shuka
Climate 2024, 12(8), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080124 - 19 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1059
Abstract
Although somewhat debated, it is generally agreed in Europe that small water bodies comprise lentic ecosystems that are shallow (less than 20 m) and have a surface area of a few hectares (less than 10 ha). In Albania, 84 glacial lakes constitute a [...] Read more.
Although somewhat debated, it is generally agreed in Europe that small water bodies comprise lentic ecosystems that are shallow (less than 20 m) and have a surface area of a few hectares (less than 10 ha). In Albania, 84 glacial lakes constitute a substantial portion of the aquatic ecosystems that sustain high levels of biodiversity, metabolic rates, and functionality. This paper discusses the integration of ecological sustainability into ecosystem services (i.e., cultural, regulatory, and sustaining services) and the national ecological networks of protected sites. This integration is particularly important in light of recent advancements regarding European integration. It is also important due to the catchment continuum, which addresses biodiversity values and gradients that, in this work, are considered using rotifer communities and aquatic plant species. The main causes of the stressors on small ecosystems are inappropriate land use, water pollution, altered habitats, non-native species introduction, resource mismanagement in basins, inadequate planning, and a lack of sector integration. The glacial lakes reflect climate change elements through: an increased number of dried glacial lakes, so only 84 remain functioning; the water level is slowly being reduced; the oscillation of the water level is steadily increasing; and the eutrophication process is rapidly advancing. Full article
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17 pages, 5754 KiB  
Article
Climatic Favorability to the Occurrence of Hemileia vastatrix in Apt Areas for the Cultivation of Coffea arabica L. in Brazil
by Taís Rizzo Moreira, Alexandre Rosa dos Santos, Aldemar Polonini Moreli, Willian dos Santos Gomes, José Eduardo Macedo Pezzopane, Rita de Cássia Freire Carvalho, Kaíse Barbosa de Souza, Clebson Pautz and Lucas Louzada Pereira
Climate 2024, 12(8), 123; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080123 - 16 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1195
Abstract
In Brazil, coffee leaf rust (CLR), caused by the fungus Hemileia vastatrix, was first detected in Coffea arabica in January of 1970 in southern Bahia. Now widespread across all cultivation areas, the disease poses a significant threat to coffee production, causing losses [...] Read more.
In Brazil, coffee leaf rust (CLR), caused by the fungus Hemileia vastatrix, was first detected in Coffea arabica in January of 1970 in southern Bahia. Now widespread across all cultivation areas, the disease poses a significant threat to coffee production, causing losses of 30–50%. In this context, the objective of this study was to identify and quantify the different classes of occurrence of CLR in areas apt and restricted to the cultivation of Arabica coffee in Brazil for a more informed decision regarding the cultivar to be implanted. The areas of climatic aptitude for Arabica coffee were defined, and then, the climatic favorability for the occurrence of CLR in these areas was evaluated based on climatic data from TerraClimate from 1992 to 2021. The apt areas, apt with some type of irrigation, restricted, and with some type of restriction for the cultivation of Arabica coffee add up to 16.34% of the Brazilian territory. Within this 16.34% of the area of the Brazilian territory, the class of climatic favorability for the occurrence of CLR with greater representation is the favorable one. Currently, the disease is controlled with the use of protective and systemic fungicides, including copper, triazoles, and strobilurins, which must be applied following decision rules that vary according to the risk scenario, and according to the use of resistant cultivars. This study provides a basis for choosing the most suitable cultivars for each region based on the degree of CLR resistance. Full article
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19 pages, 1400 KiB  
Essay
From Debt to Sustainability: Advancing Wastewater Projects in Developing Countries through Innovative Financing Mechanisms—The Role of Debt-for-Climate Swaps
by Amgad Elmahdi and Jinkyung Jeong
Climate 2024, 12(8), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080122 - 14 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1345
Abstract
Developing countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDSs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change due to their distinct geographical and environmental characteristics. Escalating sea levels and heightened salinity levels imperil freshwater reserves, while warmer ocean temperatures and acidification [...] Read more.
Developing countries, including Small Island Developing States (SIDSs) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), are exceptionally vulnerable to climate change due to their distinct geographical and environmental characteristics. Escalating sea levels and heightened salinity levels imperil freshwater reserves, while warmer ocean temperatures and acidification disrupt water demand, tourism, health services, and fisheries. Concurrently, these countries bear the brunt of water shortages, flooding, and declining water quality. However, significant barriers such as limited financing capacities to fund water security initiatives, exacerbated by a growing debt crisis marked by escalating interest rates and inflation, hinder developmental progress and investments in climate adaptation and mitigation endeavors. Consequently, there arises a critical necessity to harness innovative financial mechanisms to transform these debts into opportunities that support effective climate action. This paper explores the potential of debt-for-climate swaps as a catalyst for advancing transformative wastewater projects, focusing on their strategic deployment to underpin critical initiatives. Through case studies and empirical evidence, the paper elucidates how debt-for-climate swaps can enhance sustainable wastewater management systems in developing countries and delineates best practices for leveraging these mechanisms and the roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders, including governments, policymakers, the private sector, communities, and climate financial institutions. Combining theoretical insights with tangible examples, this paper furnishes a comprehensive framework for harnessing debt-for-climate swaps to enhance water security and resilience in developing countries. It offers actionable strategies for policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders to navigate the complex terrain of climate change and engender sustainable development. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Economics)
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11 pages, 2374 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Atmospheric Temperature Variations on Glycaemic Patterns in Children and Young Adults with Type 1 Diabetes
by Piero Chiacchiaretta, Stefano Tumini, Alessandra Mascitelli, Lorenza Sacrini, Maria Alessandra Saltarelli, Maura Carabotta, Jacopo Osmelli, Piero Di Carlo and Eleonora Aruffo
Climate 2024, 12(8), 121; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080121 - 12 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1467
Abstract
Seasonal variations in glycaemic patterns in children and young adults affected by type 1 diabetes are currently poorly studied. However, the spread of Flash Glucose Monitoring (FGM) and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems and of dedicated platforms for the synchronization and conservation of [...] Read more.
Seasonal variations in glycaemic patterns in children and young adults affected by type 1 diabetes are currently poorly studied. However, the spread of Flash Glucose Monitoring (FGM) and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems and of dedicated platforms for the synchronization and conservation of CGM reports allows an efficient approach to the comprehension of these phenomena. Moreover, the impact that environmental parameters may have on glycaemic control takes on clinical relevance, implying a need to properly educate patients and their families. In this context, it can be investigated how blood glucose patterns in diabetic patients may have a link to outdoor temperatures. Therefore, in this study, the relationship between outdoor temperatures and glucose levels in diabetic patients, aged between 4 and 21 years old, has been analysed. For a one-year period (Autumn 2022–Summer 2023), seasonal variations in their CGM metrics (i.e., time in range (TIR), Time Above Range (TAR), Time Below Range (TBR), and coefficient of variation (CV)) were analysed with respect to atmospheric temperature. The results highlight a negative correlation between glucose in diabetic patients and temperature patterns (R value computed considering data for the entire year; Ry = −0.49), behaviour which is strongly confirmed by the analysis focused on the July 2023 heatwave (R = −0.67), which shows that during heatwave events, the anticorrelation is accentuated. The diurnal analysis shows how glucose levels fluctuate throughout the day, potentially correlating with atmospheric diurnal temperature changes in addition to the standard trend. Data captured during the July 2023 heatwave (17–21 July 2023) highlight pronounced deviations from the long-term average, signalling the rapid effects of extreme temperatures on glucose regulation. Our findings underscore the need to integrate meteorological parameters into diabetes management and clinical trial designs. These results suggest that structured diabetes self-management education of patients and their families should include adequate warnings about the effects of atmospheric temperature variations on the risk of hypoglycaemia and about the negative effects of excessive therapeutic inertia in the adjustment of insulin doses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Health and Multidisciplinary Approaches)
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17 pages, 5566 KiB  
Article
Unveiling Climate–Land Use and Land Cover Interactions on the Kerch Peninsula Using Structural Equation Modeling
by Denis Krivoguz, Elena Bespalova, Anton Zhilenkov, Sergei Chernyi, Aleksandr Kustov, Andrey Degtyarev and Elena Zinchenko
Climate 2024, 12(8), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080120 - 12 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1099
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of climatic factors, specifically temperature and precipitation, on land use and land cover (LULC) on the Kerch Peninsula using structural equation modeling (SEM). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used as a mediator in the model to [...] Read more.
This paper examines the effects of climatic factors, specifically temperature and precipitation, on land use and land cover (LULC) on the Kerch Peninsula using structural equation modeling (SEM). The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used as a mediator in the model to accurately assess the impact of climate change on vegetation and subsequent LULC dynamics. The results indicate that temperature exerts a significant negative influence on LULC in the early periods, inducing stress on vegetation and leading to land degradation. However, this influence diminishes over time, possibly due to ecosystem adaptation and the implementation of resilient land management practices. In contrast, the impact of precipitation on LULC, which is initially minimal, increases significantly, highlighting the need for improved water resource management and adaptation measures to mitigate the negative effects of excessive moisture. The NDVI plays a crucial mediating role, reflecting the health and density of vegetation in response to climatic variables. An analysis of lagged effects shows that both precipitation and temperature exert delayed effects on LULC, underscoring the complexity of water dynamics and ecosystem responses to climatic conditions. These results have important practical implications for land resource management and climate adaptation strategies. Understanding the nuanced interactions between climatic factors and LULC can inform the development of resilient agricultural systems, optimized water management practices, and effective land use planning. Future research should focus on refining models to incorporate nonlinear interactions, improving data accuracy, and expanding the geographic scope to generalize findings. This study highlights the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive management to develop sustainable land management practices that can withstand the challenges of climate change. Full article
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31 pages, 15968 KiB  
Article
Advanced Forecasting of Drought Zones in Canada Using Deep Learning and CMIP6 Projections
by Keyvan Soltani, Afshin Amiri, Isa Ebtehaj, Hanieh Cheshmehghasabani, Sina Fazeli, Silvio José Gumiere and Hossein Bonakdari
Climate 2024, 12(8), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080119 - 10 Aug 2024
Viewed by 2042
Abstract
This study addresses the critical issue of drought zoning in Canada using advanced deep learning techniques. Drought, exacerbated by climate change, significantly affects ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) data provided by the Canadian government and ERA5-Land daily data were [...] Read more.
This study addresses the critical issue of drought zoning in Canada using advanced deep learning techniques. Drought, exacerbated by climate change, significantly affects ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. Canadian Drought Monitor (CDM) data provided by the Canadian government and ERA5-Land daily data were utilized to generate a comprehensive time series of mean monthly precipitation and air temperature for 199 sample locations in Canada from 1979 to 2023. These data were processed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment and used to develop a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to estimate CDM values, thereby filling gaps in historical drought data. The CanESM5 climate model, as assessed in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, was employed under four climate change scenarios to predict future drought conditions. Our CNN model forecasts CDM values up to 2100, enabling accurate drought zoning. The results reveal significant trends in temperature changes, indicating areas most vulnerable to future droughts, while precipitation shows a slow increasing trend. Our analysis indicates that under extreme climate scenarios, certain regions may experience a significant increase in the frequency and severity of droughts, necessitating proactive planning and mitigation strategies. These findings are critical for policymakers and stakeholders in designing effective drought management and adaptation programs. Full article
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20 pages, 1718 KiB  
Article
Is Climate Change Worry Fostering Young Italian Adults’ Psychological Distress? An Italian Exploratory Study on the Mediation Role of Intolerance of Uncertainty and Future Anxiety
by Giorgio Maria Regnoli, Gioia Tiano and Barbara De Rosa
Climate 2024, 12(8), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080118 - 10 Aug 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1469
Abstract
Climate Change is a phenomenon that has been increasingly investigated in the literature from a psychological perspective for its impact on mental health, particularly that of young adults who, already affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, are highly worried about it. Despite this, few [...] Read more.
Climate Change is a phenomenon that has been increasingly investigated in the literature from a psychological perspective for its impact on mental health, particularly that of young adults who, already affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, are highly worried about it. Despite this, few studies have been conducted in the Mediterranean region, especially in southern Italy, and little consideration has been given to the role of other variables in the relationship between environmental emotions and mental health. The present study aims to explore the relationship between Climate Change Worry and Depression, Anxiety, and Stress in a sample of 283 Italian young adults (age range 18–25; M = 21.3; SD = 1.7) from Southern Italy (91% from Campania), examining the mediating effect that Intolerance of Uncertainty and Future Anxiety have on the target. At the same time, it endeavors to explore the joint effect of the two mediators in the relationship between Climate Change Worry and Psychological Distress. Findings highlighted that Climate Change Worry had a significant positive effect on Anxiety and Stress levels and positively influenced Intolerance of Uncertainty and Future Anxiety; the latter two also increased the impact of Climate Change Worry on Psychological Distress, acting as vulnerability factors in all parallel mediation models performed and, specifically, in the fully mediated Depression model. Furthermore, the findings of the serial model corroborated the joint effect of the two mediators and highlighted how young adults with higher levels of Climate Change Worry experienced more Intolerance of Uncertainty, which positively influenced Future Anxiety levels and, in turn, exacerbated the Global Psychological Distress. Finally, levels of Psychological Distress, Climate Change Worry, and Future Anxiety were significantly higher in women. To conclude, exploring the indirect pathways through which negative environmental emotions affect Psychological Distress seems to be a fertile research area to study in more depth the impact of the climate crisis on new generations. Full article
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26 pages, 1568 KiB  
Perspective
Exploring Adaptation Strategies to Mitigate Climate Threats to Transportation Infrastructure in Nigeria: Lagos City, as a Case Study
by Wesam H. Beitelmal, Samuel Chukwujindu Nwokolo, Edson L. Meyer and Chinedu Christian Ahia
Climate 2024, 12(8), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080117 - 8 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1790
Abstract
This study aims to explore innovative adaptation strategies that can effectively mitigate the climate threats faced by transportation infrastructure in Lagos, Nigeria. The study highlights the urgent need for innovative approaches to address the challenges posed by climate change to transportation systems. By [...] Read more.
This study aims to explore innovative adaptation strategies that can effectively mitigate the climate threats faced by transportation infrastructure in Lagos, Nigeria. The study highlights the urgent need for innovative approaches to address the challenges posed by climate change to transportation systems. By analyzing the current vulnerabilities and potential impacts of climate change on transportation infrastructure, the authors identify and propose four current challenges facing transportation infrastructure as a result of climate change. These threats include the impact of rising sea levels on coastal roads and bridges, the vulnerability of inland transportation systems to extreme weather events such as floods and heavy rainfall, the potential disruption of transportation networks as storms become more frequent and intense, and the implications of temperature changes on road surfaces and their structural integrity. The study also identified and proposed ten potential adaptation measures that can enhance the resilience of transportation systems in Lagos, Nigeria. The adaptive measures ranged from increasing the resilience of road networks through the implementation of proper drainage systems and slope stabilization measures to forming partnerships with private sector companies to promote sustainable practices and the development of green transportation initiatives. To facilitate these adaptive measures, the authors used them to develop various policy frameworks for transportation resilience in Lagos, Nigeria. These policy frameworks aimed to provide guidelines and regulations for the implementation of adaptive measures, ensuring their effective integration into the transportation system. The authors emphasized the importance of stakeholder engagement and public participation in decision-making processes to foster a sense of ownership and collective responsibility towards building resilient transportation systems. By adapting to these measures, Lagos, Nigeria, can enhance its ability to withstand and recover from transportation disruptions caused by various hazards, such as extreme weather events, infrastructure failures, or security threats. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Transport)
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20 pages, 653 KiB  
Review
An AI-Enhanced Systematic Review of Climate Adaptation Costs: Approaches and Advancements, 2010–2021
by Riccardo Boero
Climate 2024, 12(8), 116; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080116 - 7 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1545
Abstract
This study addresses the critical global challenge of climate adaptation by assessing the inadequacies in current methodologies for estimating adaptation costs. Broad assessments reveal a significant investment shortfall in adaptation strategies, highlighting the necessity for precise cost analysis to guide effective policy-making. By [...] Read more.
This study addresses the critical global challenge of climate adaptation by assessing the inadequacies in current methodologies for estimating adaptation costs. Broad assessments reveal a significant investment shortfall in adaptation strategies, highlighting the necessity for precise cost analysis to guide effective policy-making. By employing the PRISMA 2020 protocol and enhancing it with the prismAId tool, this review systematically analyzes the recent evolution of cost assessment methodologies using state-of-the-art generative AI. The AI-enhanced approach facilitates rapid and replicable research extensions. The analysis reveals a significant geographical and sectoral disparity in research on climate adaptation costs, with notable underrepresentation of crucial areas and sectors that are most vulnerable to climate impacts. The study also highlights a predominant reliance on secondary data and a lack of comprehensive uncertainty quantification in economic assessments, suggesting an urgent need for methodological enhancements. It concludes that extending analyses beyond merely verifying that benefits exceed costs is crucial for supporting effective climate adaptation. By assessing the profitability of adaptation investments, it becomes possible to prioritize these investments not only against similar interventions but also across the broader spectrum of public spending. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Adaptation Costs and Finance)
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22 pages, 4009 KiB  
Article
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth in the Visegrád Region: A Study Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis
by Mohammad Fazle Rabbi and Masuk Abdullah
Climate 2024, 12(8), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080115 - 7 Aug 2024
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1362
Abstract
The relationship between fossil fuel CO2 emissions and economic growth in the Visegrád (V4) countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) is examined through the lens of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing the modified environmental Kuznets curve (MEKC) hypothesis, time-series data [...] Read more.
The relationship between fossil fuel CO2 emissions and economic growth in the Visegrád (V4) countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) is examined through the lens of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Employing the modified environmental Kuznets curve (MEKC) hypothesis, time-series data from 2010 to 2022 were analyzed. The methodology encompasses a range of econometric techniques, including temporal, comparative, correlational, and regression analyses, to unravel the intricate relationship between economic development (measured by GDP per capita) and environmental pollution (CO2 emissions). Results reveal a complex nonlinear correlation between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions in the V4 countries, following an inverted U-shaped pattern. Specifically, Czechia and Hungary exhibited peak emissions at approximately USD 5000 and USD 4500 GDP per capita, respectively, with corresponding emission levels of 1.15 and 0.64 metric tons. In contrast, Slovakia’s emissions decreased after its GDP per capita exceeded USD 5000 and carbon dioxide emissions reached 0.15 metric tons. However, Poland’s data deviate from the MEKC pattern, exhibiting a consistent rise in CO2 emissions across all levels of GDP per capita. The study highlights that the power industry is the largest source of CO2 emissions in all four countries, contributing 88.09% of total emissions. The transportation and industrial combustion sectors account for about 2.12% and 1.28% of annual emissions, respectively. GDP–CO2 emission correlations vary across the V4 countries. While Czechia exhibits a positive correlation of 0.35, Hungary (−0.37), Poland (−0.21), and Slovakia (−0.11) display negative relationships. Notably, Poland experiences the most significant increase in CO2 emissions from both road transport and air traffic. The conclusions drawn from this study provide a robust foundation for developing tailored environmental policies that support sustainable growth in the Visegrád region and other transitioning economies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Forecasting of Climate Risks)
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17 pages, 2373 KiB  
Article
Modelling Climate Effects on Site Productivity and Developing Site Index Conversion Equations for Jack Pine and Trembling Aspen Mixed Stands
by Mahadev Sharma
Climate 2024, 12(8), 114; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080114 - 4 Aug 2024
Viewed by 1089
Abstract
Forest site productivity estimates are crucial for making informed forest resource management decisions. These estimates are valuable both for the tree species currently growing in the stands and for those being considered for future stands. Current models are generally designed for pure stands [...] Read more.
Forest site productivity estimates are crucial for making informed forest resource management decisions. These estimates are valuable both for the tree species currently growing in the stands and for those being considered for future stands. Current models are generally designed for pure stands and do not account for the influence of climate on tree growth. Consequently, site index (SI) conversion equations were developed specifically for jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) trees grown in naturally originated mixed stands. This work involved sampling 186 trees (93 of each species) from 31 even-aged mixed stands (3 trees per species per site) across Ontario, Canada. Stem analysis data from these trees were utilized to develop stand height growth models by incorporating climate variables for each species. The models were developed using a mixed effects modelling approach. The SI of one species was correlated with that of the other species and climate variables to establish SI conversion equations. The effect of climate on site productivity was evaluated by projecting stand heights at four geographic locations (east, center, west, and far west) in Ontario from 2022 to 2100 using the derived stand height growth models. Height projections were made under three emissions scenarios reflecting varying levels of radiative forcing by the end of the century (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 watts m−2). Climate effects were observed to vary across different regions, with the least and most pronounced effects noted in the central and far western areas, respectively, for jack pine, while effects were relatively similar across all locations for trembling aspen. Stand heights and SIs of jack pine and trembling aspen trees grown in naturally originated mixed stands can be estimated using the height growth models developed here. Similarly, SI conversion equations enable the estimation of the SI for one species based on the SI of another species and environmental variables. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Ecosystems under Climate Change)
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33 pages, 19908 KiB  
Article
On the Role of the Building Envelope on the Urban Heat Island Mitigation and Building Energy Performance in Mediterranean Cities: A Case Study in Southern Italy
by Alessandra Martinelli, Francesco Carlucci and Francesco Fiorito
Climate 2024, 12(8), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080113 - 31 Jul 2024
Viewed by 1527
Abstract
The urban heat island (UHI) effect is one of the largest climate-related issues concerning our cities due to the localized temperature increase in highly urbanized areas. This paper aims to investigate the impact of UHI mitigation techniques in promoting climate resilience, by reducing [...] Read more.
The urban heat island (UHI) effect is one of the largest climate-related issues concerning our cities due to the localized temperature increase in highly urbanized areas. This paper aims to investigate the impact of UHI mitigation techniques in promoting climate resilience, by reducing urban air temperatures and cooling energy consumption in buildings. To this end, four mitigation solutions regarding the building envelope—green roofs, green walls, cool roofs, and cool walls—were investigated for the city of Bari in Southern Italy and compared with the current baseline scenario. Hence, five scenarios were simulated—using the ENVI-met microclimate software—during three representative summer days, and the resulting microclimate changes were assessed. Based on these analyses, new climate files—one for each scenario—were generated and used as input to run energy simulations in EnergyPlus to estimate the building cooling consumption. Coupling the microclimate and the consumption outcomes, the mitigation strategies were evaluated from both an urban and building point of view. The study shows that urban characteristics, mainly geometry and materials, are crucial for the UHI phenomenon. All the applied technologies seem to be effective. However, green walls proved to be more efficient in reducing outdoor temperatures (1 °C reduction in daily temperatures), while cool walls performed better in reducing cooling energy consumption, with an overall saving of 6% compared to the current scenario. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climate Change and Urban Ecosystems)
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14 pages, 4012 KiB  
Article
Rising Temperatures, Wavering Human Towers? Temperature Trends and Thermal Comfort during Castells Exhibitions in Catalonia (1951–2023). Case Studies in Valls (24 June), La Bisbal del Penedès (15 August), Tarragona (19 August), and Vilafranca del Penedès (30 August)
by Jon Xavier Olano Pozo, Òscar Saladié and Anna Boqué-Ciurana
Climate 2024, 12(8), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080112 - 30 Jul 2024
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Abstract
This study analyzes temperature trends and thermal comfort during the key hours (i.e., from noon to 3:00 p.m.) of human tower (castells) performances in four significant festivities involving this outdoor exhibition (diada castellera) in Catalonia. Human towers were recognized [...] Read more.
This study analyzes temperature trends and thermal comfort during the key hours (i.e., from noon to 3:00 p.m.) of human tower (castells) performances in four significant festivities involving this outdoor exhibition (diada castellera) in Catalonia. Human towers were recognized by UNESCO in 2010 as an Intangible Cultural Heritage. The selected exhibitions were Sant Joan in Valls on 24 June; Festa Major de La Bisbal del Penedès on 15 August; Sant Magí in Tarragona on 19 August; and Sant Fèlix in Vilafranca del Penedès on 30 August. Temperature and relative humidity data were downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change Service’s ERA5-Land and ERA5 pressure level datasets, respectively, with reanalysis from 1951 to 2023. The results revealed a clear upward trend in temperatures over the last several decades in these four places and for the respective dates, from +0.3 °C per decade in La Bisbal del Penedès to +0.42 °C per decade in Valls. Most of the positive temperature anomalies were concentrated in the last 25 years. The calculation of the Heat Index revealed a higher occurrence of years with possible fatigue due to prolonged exposure and/or physical activity in the three inland locations (i.e., Valls, La Bisbal del Penedès, and Vilafranca del Penedès) and a greater frequency of years with possible heat stroke, heat cramps, and/or heat exhaustion in Tarragona, which is near the Mediterranean Sea. This warming trend and increased discomfort pose potential health risks for participants and suggests a need for adaptive measures. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating climate considerations into human tower planning. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts at Various Geographical Scales (2nd Edition))
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16 pages, 8430 KiB  
Article
Extreme Seasonal Droughts and Floods in the Madeira River Basin, Brazil: Diagnosis, Causes, and Trends
by Nicole Cristine Laureanti, Priscila da Silva Tavares, Matheus Tavares, Daniela Carneiro Rodrigues, Jorge Luís Gomes, Sin Chan Chou and Francis Wagner Silva Correia
Climate 2024, 12(8), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080111 - 27 Jul 2024
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Abstract
The Madeira River, a major tributary of the Amazon River, often undergoes severe flood and drought conditions. This study seeks to investigate the climate processes associated with the opposing extreme precipitation events in the Madeira River basin and to relate them to river [...] Read more.
The Madeira River, a major tributary of the Amazon River, often undergoes severe flood and drought conditions. This study seeks to investigate the climate processes associated with the opposing extreme precipitation events in the Madeira River basin and to relate them to river discharge variability based on a flood awareness dataset. Despite the uncertainty in the observational datasets, the annual precipitation cycle exhibits a rainy season from November to March. A significant result is the high correlation between the rainy season variability in the Madeira River basin and the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean. This result indicates that improving the Atlantic SST representation in climate modeling allows for capturing extreme precipitation events in the region. In addition to this impact, certain Madeira River tributaries present significant climate trends. The river discharge variability reveals an increase in hydrological extremes in recent years in the upper sector, but more significantly, in the lower basin, where it has reduced by more than 400 m3/s per decade. These findings highlight the need to improve in situ data and climate and hydrological modeling, with a focus on describing the intense climate variability and trends in river discharges. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Extreme Weather on Hydrological Process, Water Quality and Ecosystem in Agricultural and Forested Watersheds under the Changing Climate)
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21 pages, 3445 KiB  
Article
Projecting Climate Change Impact on Precipitation Patterns during Different Growth Stages of Rainfed Wheat Crop in the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan
by Ghulam Rasool, Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Da Ye Kim, Muhammad Azam, Fiaz Hussain, Arslan Afzal, Seung Jin Maeng and Kim Chin Min
Climate 2024, 12(8), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080110 - 27 Jul 2024
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Abstract
In rainfed areas, precipitation variations directly impact wheat growth stages such as emergence, tillering, jointing and booting, and maturity. Evaluating the impact of climate change on precipitation patterns during these critical growth stages is crucial for adapting climate change and ensuring global food [...] Read more.
In rainfed areas, precipitation variations directly impact wheat growth stages such as emergence, tillering, jointing and booting, and maturity. Evaluating the impact of climate change on precipitation patterns during these critical growth stages is crucial for adapting climate change and ensuring global food security. In this study, projections of five General Circulation models (GCMs) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were used to predict the changing characteristics of precipitation during four main growth stages of wheat in the rainfed region of the Pothwar Plateau, Pakistan. Historical datasets of daily precipitation at six weather stations were analyzed to check the past changes in the precipitation patterns. During the baseline period (1985–2014), the annual average precipitation decreased at a rate of −9.75 mm/decade, while the amount of precipitation during the rabi season (wheat-growing season) decreased at a rate of −20.47 mm/decade. An increase in the precipitation was found during the fourth (flowering) stage of crop growth, while the first three stages experienced a decrease in the precipitation amount. The multimodal ensembled data, under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, revealed a significant decline (at the rate of −16.63 mm/decade) in the future annual precipitation. However, it is projected that, under SSP2-4.5, there may be a slight increase (4.03 mm/decade) in the total precipitation amount during the future rabi season. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, average annual precipitation exhibited a slightly increasing trend, increasing by 1.0 mm/decade. However, during the rabi season, there was a possibility of a decrease in precipitation amount, with a rate of 11.64 mm/decade. It is also expected that the precipitation amount may vary significantly during the crown root initiation, jointing and booting, and flowering stages in the near future. These results provide a framework for the planning of wheat production in the Pothwar region of Pakistan, taking into account the potential impact of shifting weather patterns, particularly in terms of uneven precipitation. Full article
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9 pages, 1919 KiB  
Communication
Emergence of Arctic Extremes
by James E. Overland
Climate 2024, 12(8), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080109 - 27 Jul 2024
Viewed by 1352
Abstract
Recent increases in extreme events, especially those near and beyond previous records, are a new index for Arctic and global climate change. They vary by type, location, and season. These record-shattering events often have no known historical analogues and suggest that other climate [...] Read more.
Recent increases in extreme events, especially those near and beyond previous records, are a new index for Arctic and global climate change. They vary by type, location, and season. These record-shattering events often have no known historical analogues and suggest that other climate surprises are in store. Twenty-six unprecedented events from 2022, 2023, and early 2024 include record summer temperatures/heatwaves, storms, major Canadian wildfires, early continental snow melt, Greenland melt, sea temperatures of 5–7 °C above normal, drought in Iceland, and low northern Alaskan salmon runs. Collectively, such diverse extremes form a consilience, the principle that evidence from independent, unrelated sources converge as a strong indicator of ongoing Arctic change. These new behaviors represent emergent phenomenon. Emergence occurs when multiple processes interact to produce new properties, such as the interaction of Arctic amplification with the normal range of major weather events. Examples are typhon Merbok that resulted in extensive coastal erosion in the Bering Sea, Greenland melt, and record temperatures and melt in Svalbard. The Arctic can now be considered to be in a different state to before fifteen years ago. Communities must adapt for such intermittent events to avoid worst-case scenarios. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate, Climate Change and the Arctic: Environment, Infrastructure, Health and Well-Being)
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42 pages, 12236 KiB  
Article
Conducting a Tailored and Localised Marine Heat Wave Risk Assessment for Vanuatu Fisheries
by Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Chayn Sun and Suelynn Choy
Climate 2024, 12(8), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12080108 - 25 Jul 2024
Viewed by 955
Abstract
In Vanuatu, communities are predicted to be at high risk of more frequent and severe Marine Heat Wave (MHW) impacts in the future, as a result of climate change. A critical sector at risk in Vanuatu is fisheries, which vitally support food security [...] Read more.
In Vanuatu, communities are predicted to be at high risk of more frequent and severe Marine Heat Wave (MHW) impacts in the future, as a result of climate change. A critical sector at risk in Vanuatu is fisheries, which vitally support food security and livelihoods. To sustain local communities, the MHW risk for Vanuatu fisheries must be extensively explored. In this study, an efficient MHW risk assessment methodology is demonstrated specifically for assessing MHW risk to Vanuatu fisheries. The fisheries specific MHW risk assessment was conducted on the local area council scale for two retrospective case study periods: 2015–2017 and 2020–2022. An integrated GIS-based approach was taken to calculating and mapping monthly hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and overall risk indices. Key areas and time periods of concern for MHW impacts are identified. Area councils in the Shefa province area are particularly concerning, displaying consistently high-risk levels throughout both case studies. Risk levels in 2022 were the most concerning, with most months displaying peak risk to MHW impacts. A sensitivity analysis is employed to validate the selection and weighting of the indicators used. However, it is recommended that a more comprehensive validation of the retrospective risk assessment results, using multiple ground-truth sources, be conducted in the future. Once results are sufficiently validated, management recommendations for fisheries resilience can be made. Full article
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