Modeling of Future Electricity Generation and Emissions Assessment for Pakistan
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in Pakistan
3. Future Electricity Generation Plans
3.1. Hydroelectric Power Plants
3.2. Coal Power Plants
3.3. Oil and Natural Gas Power Plants
3.4. Nuclear Power Plants
3.5. Renewable Energy Power Plants
3.5.1. Solar PV Power Plants
3.5.2. Wind Power Plants
3.5.3. Biomass Power Plants
4. Methodology
4.1. LEAP Energy Model Framework Development
4.2. Electricity Demand Forecast
4.3. Basic Assumptions for LEAP Modeling
4.4. Reference or Base Scenario
4.5. Alternative Scenarios
4.5.1. More Renewable Energy (MRR) Scenario
4.5.2. More Hydro Energy (MRH) Scenario
4.5.3. More Hydro Nuclear Energy (MRHN) Scenario
5. Results and Discussions
5.1. Reference or Base Scenario
5.1.1. MRR Scenario
5.1.2. MRH Scenario
5.1.3. MRHN Scenario
5.2. Environmental Emissions in Reference and All Alternative Scenarios
5.2.1. CO2 Emission
5.2.2. SO2 Emissions
5.2.3. NOX Emissions
5.2.4. CH4 Emissions
5.2.5. N2O Emissions
6. Conclusions and Recommendations
- The REF scenario based on government plans suggests a reduction of oil-based power generation, however, conversion of certain power plants to coal and addition of new coal-based power plants in this scenario lead to more emission which are highest compared to other alternative scenarios.
- The MRR scenario mainly emphasized the renewable sources for electricity generation wherein the share of renewables increases to be 11% of total electricity output in 2035. This scenario has minimum emissions resulting from power generation during the modeling period.
- The MRH scenario prefers hydroelectric-based power generations to the tune of 42% in the total energy mix by the year 2035. The coal-based generation forms about 28% in this scenario, as such, environmental emissions in the scenario are found to next highest to the REF scenario.
- In the MRHN scenario, the share of electricity output of hydroelectric and nuclear power is projected to increase from 31% to 42% and 5% to 11%, respectively, by the end year 2035, as such, environmental emissions, in this case, are minimum but second to those of the MRR scenario.
- All alternative scenarios (MRR, MRH, and MRHN) are more environmentally friendly and acceptable compared to the base or REF scenario, and
- Coal-based power generation is the major sources of emission with local coal (indigenous lignite) emitting more emissions than imported (bituminous) coal.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Name of Power Plant | Capacity (MW) |
---|---|
Hydro Neelum–Jhelum Hydroelectric | 969 |
Tarbela 4 th,5th extension | 1910 |
Patrind Hydroelectric | 147 |
Akhori dam project | 600 |
Sehra Hydroelectric Project | 130 |
Dasu Hydroelectric Project | 4320 |
Diamer–Basha Dam | 4500 |
Suki Kinari Hydroelectric | 870 |
Karot Hydroelectric Project | 720 |
Bunji Hydroelectric | 7100 |
Azad Pattan Hydroelectric | 640 |
Lower Palas Hydroelectric | 665 |
Lower Spat Gah Hydroelectric | 496 |
Kohala Hydroelectric Project | 1100 |
Mahl Hydroelectric Project | 590 |
Thakot Hydroelectric | 2800 |
Patan Hydroelectric | 2800 |
Munda dam project | 740 |
Mohmand dam Hydroelectric | 800 |
Shyok dam project | 690 |
Chakoti–Hattan Hydroelectric | 500 |
Name of Power Plant | Capacity (MW) |
---|---|
Imported Coal | |
Coal power plants at Punjab | 2 × 660 |
Coal power plants at Punjab | 5280 |
Coal power plants at Jamshoro | 2 × 660 |
Coal power plants at Hub | 2 × 660 |
Coal power plants at Gawadar | 300 |
Coal power at Port Qasim | 2 × 660 |
Conversion of Jamshoro Power Plant from Oil to Coal | 850 |
Conversion of Muzaffargarh Power Plant from Oil to Coal | 1350 |
Conversion of Guddu Power Plant from Oil to Coal | 640 |
Conversion of K-Electric Power Plant from Oil to Coal | 1260 |
Conversion of HUBCO Power Plant from Oil to Coal | 1292 |
Local coal | |
Sino Sindh Resources (Pvt.) Limited (SSRL) (China | 7500 |
Thar Power Company Ltd. (THARCO) SECM | 5000 |
Oracle Coalfields UK | 1400 |
GENCOS | 1320 |
Sindh/ETON Japan Power | 3960 |
Name of Power Plant | Capacity (MW) |
---|---|
Uch-II power plant | 404 |
Guddu power plant | 747 |
RLNG based power plant Bhikki Punjab | 1180 |
RLNG based power plant Balloki Punjab | 1223 |
RLNG based power plant Haveli Punjab | 1230 |
RLNG based power plant Jhang Punjab | 1250 |
Name of Power Plant | Capacity (MW) |
---|---|
Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Units-3 (C-3) and Unit-4 (C-4) | 680 |
Karachi Nuclear Power Plants (K-2) and (K-3) | 2200 |
Chashma Nuclear Power Plant Unit-5 | 1000 |
Coastal Nuclear Power Hub Balochistan | 2200 |
Name of Power Plant | Capacity (MW) |
---|---|
Solar PV power park Punjab | 1000 |
Chinese solar Company | 500 |
Zorlu Wind Energy Sindh | 56 |
Fuji Fertilizer Energy Sindh | 50 |
Capacity of wind power to be Commissioned | 2726 |
Bagasse based power plant | 83 |
Parameters | Assumptions |
---|---|
Transmission and Distribution (T&D) losses | Assumed to reduce from 17.37% in 2013 to 12.5% in 2020 and about 11.7% by 2035 as published by NTDC. |
Emission factors of fuels | Default emission factors published by IPCC are available in LEAP TED database. |
Reserve Margin | Assumed 12% according to the previous studies |
Dispatch rule | Followed as merit order according to the government of Pakistan’s regulating body. |
Load Duration Curve (LDC) | Calculated according to the published data in the “Pakistan energy yearbook 2013”. |
Capacity credit | Capacity credit is assumed by previous studies. |
Plant development | For presently operational oil and gas steam turbines existing technologies whereas for coal, combined cycle gas turbines, solar, wind and biomass new mature technologies are assumed. |
Scenario | Objective | Main Resources |
---|---|---|
Reference (REF) | In this scenario, the government’s current plan and policy is followed. | As per the government plan and policy. |
More Renewable Energy (MRR) | Under this scenario, the share of renewable energy resources (other than hydro) is increased while share of coal is decreased. | Renewable energy resources, solar, wind, and biomass. |
More Hydro Energy (MRH) | Under this scenario, share of hydroelectric is increased while the share of coal is decreased. | Renewable energy resources, hydro, solar, wind, and biomass. |
More hydro Nuclear Energy (MRHN) | Under this scenario, the share of hydro and nuclear is increased while reducing the share of coal. | Energy resources, hydro, nuclear, solar, wind, and biomass. |
Fuel | Efficiency (%) | Output (GWh) | Capacity (GW) | Maximum Availability (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hydro | 80 | 29,857 | 68 | 60 |
Coal | 45 | 61 | 0.01223 | 75 |
Natural Gas | 50 | 27,116 | 6.59 | 70 |
Nuclear | 34 | 4553 | 0.75 | 85 |
Oil | 40 | 34,534 | 8.2 | 50 |
Other Renewable | 34 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
Fuel Source | Percentage Share 2013 | Percentage Share 2035 |
---|---|---|
Oil | 36 | 2 |
Natural Gas | 28.2 | 13 |
Nuclear | 5 | 9 |
Coal | 0.1 | 34 |
Hydro | 31 | 37 |
Renewable | 0.0 | 6 |
Emissions | Units | 2013 | 2035 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
REF | MRR | MRH | MRHN | |||
CO2 | million tons | 34 | 143 | 103 | 126 | 117 |
SO2 | kilo tons | 253 | 553 | 372 | 487 | 454 |
NOx | kilo tons | 92 | 157 | 167 | 146 | 140 |
CH4 | kilo tons | 1 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
N2O | kilo tons | 0.2 | 82 | 41 | 70 | 63 |
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Share and Cite
Mengal, A.; Mirjat, N.H.; Walasai, G.D.; Khatri, S.A.; Harijan, K.; Uqaili, M.A. Modeling of Future Electricity Generation and Emissions Assessment for Pakistan. Processes 2019, 7, 212. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr7040212
Mengal A, Mirjat NH, Walasai GD, Khatri SA, Harijan K, Uqaili MA. Modeling of Future Electricity Generation and Emissions Assessment for Pakistan. Processes. 2019; 7(4):212. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr7040212
Chicago/Turabian StyleMengal, Abdullah, Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Gordhan Das Walasai, Shoaib Ahmed Khatri, Khanji Harijan, and Mohammad Aslam Uqaili. 2019. "Modeling of Future Electricity Generation and Emissions Assessment for Pakistan" Processes 7, no. 4: 212. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr7040212
APA StyleMengal, A., Mirjat, N. H., Walasai, G. D., Khatri, S. A., Harijan, K., & Uqaili, M. A. (2019). Modeling of Future Electricity Generation and Emissions Assessment for Pakistan. Processes, 7(4), 212. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr7040212