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Atmosphere
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ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection
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ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (18 October 2021) | Viewed by 17094

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Indrani Roy

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Research - IRDR, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Interests: ENSO; teleconnection; Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM); Walker/Hadley circulation; observation and model; CMIP5/CMIP6; ENSO Modoki; Canonical ENSO; Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

ENSO, one of the most important tropospheric variabilities, affects various parts of the globe differently and is also season-dependent. The formation mechanism mainly involves atmosphere–ocean coupling, and its influence is even present in the upper stratosphere. Since the last few decades of the last century, some deviation on ENSO-related teleconnection has also been noticed, as well as some ENSO characteristics. This Special Issue will focus on various aspects of ENSO, which may include but not be limited to its dynamics, predictability, and teleconnection. Analyses on observation/re-analyses and model results are welcome. Results involving CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations in historical and future scenarios can also be explored. Among others, the following areas may be addressed: coupling of various modes with ENSO; ENSO-related teleconnection, including ENSO and Indian summer monsoon connection; ENSO Modoki and canonical ENSO; asymmetric features of ENSO phases, etc. Overall, the main aim is to improve our general understanding of ENSO.

Dr. Indrani Roy
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • ENSO
  • teleconnection
  • monsoon
  • model
  • CMIP5
  • CMIP6
  • walker circulation
  • climate change
  • ENSO Modoki
  • canonical ENSO
  • ISM
  • IOD
  • Niño SST

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Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 11435 KiB  
Article
Isolated Effects of Indian Ocean Basin-Wide and El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Austral Winter Rainfall over South America
by Mary T. Kayano, Wilmar L. Cerón, Rita V. Andreoli, Rodrigo A. F. Souza and Itamara P. Souza
Atmosphere 2021, 12(12), 1605; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12121605 - 30 Nov 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1893
Abstract
Contrasting effects of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans on the atmospheric circulation and rainfall interannual variations over South America during southern winter are assessed considering the effects of the warm Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) and El Niño (EN) events, and of the [...] Read more.
Contrasting effects of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans on the atmospheric circulation and rainfall interannual variations over South America during southern winter are assessed considering the effects of the warm Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) and El Niño (EN) events, and of the cold IOBW and La Niña events, which are represented by sea surface temperature-based indices. Analyses are undertaken using total and partial correlations. When the effects of the two warm events are isolated from each other, the contrasts between the associated rainfall anomalies in most of South America become accentuated. In particular, EN relates to anomalous wet conditions, and the warm IOBW event to opposite conditions in extensive areas of the 5° S–25° S band. These effects in the 5° S–15° S sector are due to the anomalous regional Hadley cells, with rising motions in this band for the EN and sinking motions for the warm IOBW event. Meanwhile, in subtropical South America, the opposite effects of the EN and warm IOBW seem to be due to the presence of anomalous anticyclone and cyclone and associated moisture transport, respectively. These opposite effects of the warm IOBW and EN events on the rainfall in part of central South America might explain the weak rainfall relation in this region to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results emphasize the important role of the tropical Indian Ocean in the South American climate and environment during southern winter. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection)
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20 pages, 6874 KiB  
Article
Spatio-Temporal Variability of Hydroclimatology in the Upper Cauca River Basin in Southwestern Colombia: Pre- and Post-Salvajina Dam Perspective
by Wilmar L. Cerón, Mary T. Kayano, Camilo Ocampo-Marulanda, Teresita Canchala, Irma Ayes Rivera, Alvaro Avila-Diaz, Rita V. Andreoli and Itamara Parente de Souza
Atmosphere 2021, 12(11), 1527; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111527 - 19 Nov 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3576
Abstract
The Cauca River rises in the Colombian Andes and is the main tributary of the Magdalena River, which drains to the Caribbean Sea. The La Balsa station monitors the Upper Cauca basin and is located just downstream of La Salvajina hydroelectric facility. At [...] Read more.
The Cauca River rises in the Colombian Andes and is the main tributary of the Magdalena River, which drains to the Caribbean Sea. The La Balsa station monitors the Upper Cauca basin and is located just downstream of La Salvajina hydroelectric facility. At this station, the discharge time series for November–January during 1950–2019 shows a statistically significant downward break, and change of distribution after 1986 has been documented after La Salvajina started operation. We assessed the spatio-temporal variability of hydroclimatology in the upper Cauca River basin during the pre- and post-Salvajina dam periods to better understand this break. Post-Salvajina, low (high) discharge events are linked to negative (positive) precipitation and soil moisture anomalies that are greater in magnitude and extension than those recorded in the pre-Salvajina period in response to the more intense El Niño events (more intense and frequent central La Niña events) after 1986. Therefore, it is necessary to consider possible future rainfall scenarios and non-infrastructure measures (i.e., reforestation, territorial planning, integrated watershed management, etc.) to mitigate floods and droughts impacts. The contribution of this study is to provide evidence for the need for foresight in the design of any structural or non-structural flood measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection)
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28 pages, 23305 KiB  
Article
El Niño–Global Atmospheric Oscillation as the Main Mode of Interannual Climate Variability
by Ilya V. Serykh and Dmitry M. Sonechkin
Atmosphere 2021, 12(11), 1443; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12111443 - 1 Nov 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2458
Abstract
The interannual variability of the global mean monthly anomalies of near-surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed near the surface, amount of precipitation and total cloudiness was investigated. The amplitudes of the anomalies of these hydrometeorological characteristics between opposite phases of the Global [...] Read more.
The interannual variability of the global mean monthly anomalies of near-surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, wind speed near the surface, amount of precipitation and total cloudiness was investigated. The amplitudes of the anomalies of these hydrometeorological characteristics between opposite phases of the Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) were calculated. The regional element of the GAO in the tropics of the Indian and Pacific Oceans is the Southern Oscillation. The results show that the oscillations of these characteristics are associated with the GAO not only in the tropical belt of the Earth but also in the middle and high latitudes, especially in the Arctic and northern Eurasia. The physical mechanism by which the transition of the GAO from the negative to the positive phase influences the weakening of the Pacific trade winds, and, as a consequence, the onset of El Niño is described. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection)
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15 pages, 6161 KiB  
Article
Structure of the Pacific Walker Circulation Depicted by the Reanalysis and CMIP6
by Emmanuel Olaoluwa Eresanya and Yuping Guan
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1219; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091219 - 17 Sep 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4656
Abstract
The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) is one of the most important components of large-scale tropical atmospheric circulations. The PWC and its influences have been studied extensively by numerical models and reanalysis. The newly released ERA5 and NCEP2 are the most widely used reanalysis [...] Read more.
The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) is one of the most important components of large-scale tropical atmospheric circulations. The PWC and its influences have been studied extensively by numerical models and reanalysis. The newly released ERA5 and NCEP2 are the most widely used reanalysis datasets and serve as benchmarks for evaluation of model simulations. If the results of these datasets differ significantly, this could lead to a bias in projected long-term climate knowledge. For better understanding of future climate change, it is necessary to evaluate PWC reanalysis productions. As a result, we compared the PWC structures between the ERA5 and NCEP2 datasets from month to seasonal time scales. We used the zonal mass streamfunction (ZMS) over the equatorial Pacific to indicate the strength of the PWC. The PWC’s average monthly or seasonal cycle peaks around July. From February to June, the NCEP2 shows a higher PWC intensity, whereas the ERA5 shows greater intensity from July to December. The circulation center in the NCEP2 is generally stronger and wider than in the ERA5. The ERA5, however, revealed that the PWC’s west edge (zero line of ZMS over the western Pacific) had moved 10 degrees westward in comparison to the NCEP2. In addition, we compared the PWC mean state in the reanalysis and CMIP6 models; the mean state vertical structures of the tropical PWC in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME) are similar to those of the reanalyses in structure but weaker and wider than in the two reanalysis datasets. The PWC is broader in CMIP6, and the western boundary is 7 and 17 degrees farther west than in the ERA5 and NCEP2, respectively. This study suggests that, when using reanalysis datasets to evaluate PWC structural changes in intensity and western edge, extreme caution should be exercised. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection)
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18 pages, 7476 KiB  
Article
The Role of the Indian Ocean Basin-Wide and El Niño–Southern Oscillation Modes in Interannual Rainfall Variability over South America during Austral Summer
by Mary T. Kayano, Rita V. Andreoli, Wilmar L. Cerón and Rodrigo A. F. Souza
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1094; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091094 - 25 Aug 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3192
Abstract
This paper examines the relative role of the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the atmospheric circulation and rainfall interannual variations over South America (SA) during southern summer of the 1951‒2016 period. The effects of the warm IOBW [...] Read more.
This paper examines the relative role of the Indian Ocean basin-wide (IOBW) mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the atmospheric circulation and rainfall interannual variations over South America (SA) during southern summer of the 1951‒2016 period. The effects of the warm IOBW and El Niño (EN) events, and of the cold IOBW and La Niña (LN) events are examined using partial correlations. The ENSO and IOBW modes, through the associated large-scale and regional anomalous circulation patterns, induce contrasting effects on the rainfall in northeastern SA. The EN without the warm IOBW effect induces anomalously dry conditions over eastern Amazon and part of northeastern Brazil (NEB) through anomalous sinking motions of the EN-related anomalous Walker and Hadley cells and strong moisture divergence associated with a vigorous anticyclone over tropical South Atlantic (TSA) and SA. The warm IOBW without the EN effect induces anomalously wet conditions in NEB, which is marginally related to the anomalous Walker and Hadley cells but is modulated by an anticyclone over SA between the equator and 20° S, and a cyclone in the southwestern Atlantic between 20° S and 40° S. The results here might be relevant for climate monitoring and modeling studies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue ENSO: Dynamics, Predictability, Modelling and Teleconnection)
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