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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154). This special issue belongs to the section "Weather, Events and Impacts".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (1 February 2022) | Viewed by 54438

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Dr. Irina Repina

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Guest Editor

Air-Sea Interaction Laboratory, A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, 119017 Moscow, Russia
Interests: air-sea interaction; atmospheric turbulence; remote sensing; atmospheric boundary layer

Prof. Dr. Michael L. Kaplan

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Guest Editor

Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, USA
Interests: multi-scale atmospheric dynamics; deterministic chaos; mesoscale numerical weather prediction; extreme weather; weather analysis and forecasting
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, tornadoes, snowstorms, extreme rainfalls, and hurricanes have affected human life since the dawn of time. An increasing number of extreme events have been observed around the world over the past few decades, some of them arguably attributed to changes in global temperatures during the 21st century. There is general agreement that changes in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events are likely to have profound impacts on society and the environment. Nonetheless, there are still many difficulties in analysis, data availability, data quality, and consistency that make it difficult to derive a clear picture of changes in worldwide extreme weather and climate events. Observations are often not well-constrained, and critical gaps exist in the amount, quality, consistency, and availability of observations, especially with respect to extremes. There is a need to collate and better disseminate data from all existing sources that are relevant for extremes and to identify regions and time periods where we can fill in gaps and better understand uncertainties. Better quantification of these processes through closer interaction between the relevant research communities is essential to reduce forecast uncertainties and improve sub-seasonal and decadal predictability of extreme events, as well as the attribution of past trends and individual events. This is addressed by assessing changes in global or large-scale models of the frequency or intensity of extreme events and using event attribution methods.

This Special Issue will collect data on weather extremes around the world, both past and present, analyze their relationship to climate change and assess forecasting capabilities.We encourage a variety of approaches using observation, reanalysis, and numerical modeling to assess the characteristics and processes of extreme events.

Potential topics include, but not limited to the following:

Statistics and climatology of extreme weather events, including wind extremes, wet and dry spells, droughts, floods, as well as of heatwaves and cold spells
Variability of wind, precipitation, and temperature and the occurrence of extremes at different temporal and spatial scales
The role of the modern climate changes for extreme events
Cold outbreaking and polar low in the high latitudes
Hazardous weather events in coastal zones
Physical mechanisms associated with genesis weather extreme events
Multiscale numerical simulation of extremes
Using remote sensing data to diagnose and predict extreme events
Risks, vulnerability, and impacts: assessment, mitigation, and adaptation strategies

Dr. Irina Repina
Prof. Dr. Michael L. Kaplan
Guest Editors

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Climate is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

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Keywords

extreme weather events
statistics and climatology
climate change
observations
modeling
remote sensing

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Published Papers (12 papers)

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20 pages, 20061 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Long-Term Trends of Rainfall in Perak, Malaysia

by Muhammad Faisal Hanif, Muhammad Raza Ul Mustafa, Muhammad Usman Liaqat, Ahmad Mustafa Hashim and Khamaruzaman Wan Yusof

Climate 2022, 10(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10030044 - 18 Mar 2022

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 3920

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal seasonal and annual trends of rainfall indices in Perak, Malaysia, during the last 35 years, as any seasonal or spatial variability in rainfall may influence the regional hydrological cycle and water resources. Mann–Kendall and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SMK) tests were used to assess seasonal and annual trends. Precipitation concentration index was used to estimate variations in rainfall concentration, and Theil–Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the spatial variability of rainfall. It was found that most of the rainfall indices are showing decreasing trends, and it was most prominent for the southwest monsoon season with a decreasing rate of 2.20 mm/year. The long-term trends for seasonal rainfall showed that rainfall declined by 0.29 mm/year during the southwest monsoon. In contrast, the northeast and the inter-monsoon seasons showed slight increases. Rainfall decreased gradually from 1994 to 2008, and the trend became more pronounced in 2008. On a spatial basis, rainfall trends have shifted from the western regions (i.e., −19 mm/year) to the southeastern regions (i.e., 10 mm/year). Overall, slightly decreasing trends in rainfall were observed in Perak Malaysia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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17 pages, 550 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modelling of Extremely High Rainfall in Limpopo Province of South Africa

by Thendo Sikhwari, Nthaduleni Nethengwe, Caston Sigauke and Hector Chikoore

Climate 2022, 10(3), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10030033 - 28 Feb 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4980

Abstract

Extreme value theory is a powerful method that is known to provide statistical models for events rarely observed. This paper presents a modelling framework for the maximum rainfall data recorded in Limpopo province, South Africa, from 1960 to 2020. Daily and monthly rainfall data were obtained from the South Africa Weather Service. In this work, the r-largest order statistics modelling approach is used. Yearly blocks were used in fitting a 61 years’ data set. The parameters of the developed models were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. After the suitable model for data was chosen, i.e., GEVD

_{r = 8}

, the 50-year return level was estimated as 368 mm, which means a probability of 0.02 exceeding 368 mm in fifty years in the Thabazimbi area. This study helps decision-makers in government and non-profit organisations improve preparation strategies and build resilience in reducing disasters resulting from extreme weather events such as excessive rainfall. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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22 pages, 10697 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sub-Hourly Precipitation Extremes in Mainland Portugal and Their Driving Mechanisms

by João A. Santos and Margarida Belo-Pereira

Climate 2022, 10(2), 28; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10020028 - 19 Feb 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3580

Abstract

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) frequently underlie major meteorological hazards, but their comprehensive analysis is still lacking in Portugal. A 71-weather-station dataset for 2000–2020 is used in this article to (1) diagnose SHHPs corresponding to a 10-min precipitation event of at least 5.0 mm, (2) characterize their spatial-temporal distribution, and (3) identify their associated synoptic-scale conditions. Two synoptic types are associated with SHHPs: remote (RemL) and regional (RegL) low-pressure systems. RegL SHHPs display two marked maxima in spring and autumn, while RemL SHHPs show a single maximum in autumn. Most RegL events occur in the afternoon/evening, while RemL events show a slight bias toward midday occurrences. In the case of RemL, the wind is stronger for 2 to 3 h before and during SHHPs, veers from 180° to 210° near the event, the pressure decreases until 20 min before the event, and the wet-bulb temperature decreases around the time of the event and remains low, thus reflecting cold-front passages. For RegL, maximum winds coincide with precipitation peaks, and the wet-bulb temperature briefly decreases in association with downdrafts. A preliminary relationship between the SHHPs and mesoscale convective systems is established by detecting sudden surface-pressure surges, which are indicative of mesohighs caused by evaporatively cooled downdrafts. A calendar of mesohigh episodes linked to SHHPs is provided herein and their signatures are illustrated for the “Pedrógão-Grande” fires. Indicators of several downbursts, cold pools, and mesohighs were identified by the AROME forecast. This first, systematized analysis paves the way to identifying dynamic precursors, enabling their integration into early warning systems and climate projections. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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29 pages, 12953 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Multi-Scale Dynamics Organizing a Favorable Environment for Convective Density Currents That Redirected the Yarnell Hill Fire

by Michael L. Kaplan, Curtis N. James, Jan Ising, Mark R. Sinclair, Yuh-Lang Lin, Andrew Taylor, Justin Riley, Shak M. S. Karim and Jackson Wiles

Climate 2021, 9(12), 170; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9120170 - 29 Nov 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4299

Abstract

The deadly shift of the Yarnell Hill, Arizona wildfire was associated with an environment exhibiting gusty wind patterns in response to organized convectively driven circulations. The observed synoptic (>2500 km) through meso-β (approximately 100 km) scale precursor environment that organized a mid-upper tropospheric cross-mountain mesoscale jet streak circulation and upslope thermally direct flow was examined. Numerical simulations and observations indicated that both circulations played a key role in focusing the upper-level divergence, ascent, downdraft potential, vertical wind shear favoring mobile convective gust fronts, and a microburst. This sequence was initiated at the synoptic scale by a cyclonic Rossby Wave Break (RWB) 72 h prior, followed by an anticyclonic RWB. These RWBs combined to produce a mid-continent baroclinic trough with two short waves ushering in cooler air with the amplifying polar jet. Cool air advection with the second trough and surface heating across the Intermountain West (IW) combined to increase the mesoscale pressure gradient, forcing a mid-upper tropospheric subsynoptic jet around the periphery of the upstream ridge over Southern Utah and Northern New Mexico. Convection was triggered by an unbalanced secondary jetlet circulation within the subsynoptic jet in association with a low-level upslope flow accompanying a mountain plains solenoidal circulation above the Mogollon Rim (MR) and downstream mountains. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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13 pages, 2099 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extreme Rainfall Indices over Benin

by Ezéchiel Obada, Eric Adechina Alamou, Eliezer Iboukoun Biao and Esdras B. Josué Zandagba

Climate 2021, 9(11), 160; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9110160 - 29 Oct 2021

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3436

Abstract

Observed rainfall data (1961–2016) were used to analyze variability, trends and changes of extreme precipitation indices over Benin. Nine indices out of the ones developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used. The results indicate a mix of downward and upward trends for maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) and maximum 5-days precipitation (RX5day). Decrease trends are observed for annual total precipitation of wet days (P), while significant increases are found for the simple daily intensity index (SDII). The number of wet days (RR1) and maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) show a mix of increase/decrease trends. However, the number of heavy (R10) and very heavy (R20) wet days and maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) show decreased trends. All wet indices increased over 1991–2010 in relation to 1971–1990. The increase in all wet indices over Benin could explain the intensification of hydrology, and the increase in the frequency and the intensity of floods. It caused damages such as soil erosion, crop destruction, livestock destruction, displacement of populations, proliferation of waterborne diseases and loss of human life. Some adaptive strategies are suggested to mitigate the impacts of changes in extreme rainfall. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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17 pages, 2099 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Potential Role of Climate Indices to Explain Floods, Mass-Movement Events and Wildfires in Southern Italy

by Roberto Coscarelli, Enric Aguilar, Olga Petrucci, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano and Fabio Zimbo

Climate 2021, 9(11), 156; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9110156 - 22 Oct 2021

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 3756

Abstract

Climate variability can be the source of several multiple hazards and damaging phenomena, such as flash floods, debris flows, landslides, forest fires, etc. In this study the response in the frequency of landslides, floods and forest fires to a set of climate indices is studied, referring to a region of southern Italy (Calabria) located in the center of the Mediterranean basin, a hot-spot for climate change. For these comparisons, 5022 landslides and 1584 flood occurrences for a 29-year period (1990–2018) have been selected for the whole Calabria; the burnt areas have been analyzed for the same territory from 2008 to 2018. The climate indices have been calculated by means of daily rainfall and temperature data registered in 93 stations. The results showed that landslide occurrences are more linked with climate indices describing not very intense rainfall. Conversely, floods show best matches with climate indices representative of more extreme precipitation. Regarding the burnt areas, the results confirmed that very dry climate conditions, modifying the moisture content of the soil, can change the intensity and the extension of fires. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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20 pages, 22035 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

The Multiscale Dynamics of the 29 June 2012 Super Derecho

by Kacie Nicole Shourd and Michael L. Kaplan

Climate 2021, 9(11), 155; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9110155 - 22 Oct 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3420

Abstract

The 29–30 June 2012 “super” derecho was, up until the 10 August 2020 “Iowa Derecho”, the most prolific derecho of modern times. While many of the synoptic-scale precursors to derecho events are understood, the multi-scale dynamics which likely distinguish derecho-producing events versus non-derecho events remain much more elusive. Using both observations and high-resolution WRF-ARW simulations, the sequence of adjustments that ultimately set up the pre-29 June derecho environment are examined. Planetary scale Rossby wave breaking occurred almost exactly two weeks before the super derecho on 15–16 June 2012 resulting in the development and intensification of a strong high-pressure system and mixed layer over the complex terrain of the western United States. A week after the initial Rossby wave break (~23 June), daily record-breaking temperatures began to dominate much of the central U.S. as the mixed layer/high pressure continued to strengthen. A second Rossby wave break on 26 June was crucial for detaching the mixed layer from the western U.S. elevated plateau, creating an elevated mixed layer that was rapidly deformed and propagated downstream to set up the derecho environment between 27–29 June. On 28 June, flow imbalance at the elevated mixed layer front resulted in highly ageostrophic circulations in the mid-levels, generating an along-stream mid-level jetlet which ultimately moved the elevated mixed layer and associated mesoscale front downstream across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. On the morning of 29 June, a well-defined corridor of both potential static instability and lowered inertial stability was set up across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states. This along with strong capping, a divergent polar jet entrance region to the north, and the highly imbalanced mid-level jetlet set the stage for this prolific severe convective event. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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19 pages, 9520 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index

by Cristina Andrade, Joana Contente and João A. Santos

Climate 2021, 9(6), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9060094 - 10 Jun 2021

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 4666

Abstract

The Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation Index (WASP-Index) was computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales (3-month, 6-month and 12-month) in 1961–2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and between 2021 and 2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The area-mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12-month WASP (12m-WASP) intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3-month WASP (3m-WASP) intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase (mostly the severest events under RCP4.5) but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent 12m-WASP wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase/decrease of the intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry/wet events was found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia (mainly Comunidad Valenciana, Región de Murcia, Andalucía in Spain, Alentejo, and Algarve in Portugal), thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future. This finding corroborates the results of previous studies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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13 pages, 60062 KiB

Open AccessArticle

IMERG-Based Meteorological Drought Analysis over Italy

by Tommaso Caloiero, Giulio Nils Caroletti and Roberto Coscarelli

Climate 2021, 9(4), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9040065 - 16 Apr 2021

Cited by 39 | Viewed by 4467

Abstract

The Mediterranean region is an area particularly susceptible to water scarcity and drought. In this work, drought has been analyzed in Italy using multiple timescales of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) evaluated from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement product from 2000 to 2020. In particular, drought characteristics (severity, duration, and intensity) have been estimated by means of the run theory applied to the SPI values calculated in 3325 grid points falling within the Italian territory. Results clearly indicate that although a high number of drought events has been identified for the short timescale, these events present a lower duration and lesser severity than the long-timescale droughts. The main outcomes of this study, with the indication of the spatial distribution of the drought characteristics in Italy, allow identifying the areas that could also face water stress conditions in the future, thus requiring drought monitoring and adequate adaptation strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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19 pages, 11358 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes in Frequency and Location of East Coast Low Pressure Systems Affecting Southeast Australia

by Milton Speer, Lance Leslie, Joshua Hartigan and Shev MacNamara

Climate 2021, 9(3), 44; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030044 - 5 Mar 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5019

Abstract

Low pressure systems off the southeast coast of Australia can generate intense rainfall and associated flooding, destructive winds, and coastal erosion, particularly during the cool season (April–September). Impacts depend on coastal proximity, strength and latitude. Therefore, it is important to investigate changes in frequency, duration, location, and intensity of these systems. First, an existing observation-based database of these low pressure systems, for 1970–2006, is extended to 2019, focusing on April–September and using archived Australian Bureau of Meteorology MSLP charts. Second, data consistency between 1970 and 2006 and 2007 and 2019 is confirmed. Third, permutation testing is performed on differences in means and variances between the two 25-year intervals 1970–1994 and 1995–2019. Additionally, trends in positions, durations and central pressures of the systems are investigated. p-values from permutation tests reveal statistically significant increases in mean low pressure system frequencies. Specifically, a greater frequency of both total days and initial development days only, occurred in the latter period. Statistically significant lower variance for both latitude and longitude in systems that developed in both subtropical easterly and mid-latitude westerly wind regimes indicate a shift south and east in the latter period. Furthermore, statistically significant differences in variance of development location of explosive low pressure systems that develop in a low level easterly wind regime indicate a shift further south and east. These changes are consistent with fewer systems projected to impact the east coast. Finally, important changes are suggested in the large scale atmospheric dynamics of the eastern Australian/Tasman Sea region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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21 pages, 6174 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Synoptic Climatology of Lake-Effect Snow Events off the Western Great Lakes

by Jake Wiley and Andrew Mercer

Climate 2021, 9(3), 43; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9030043 - 5 Mar 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3552

Abstract

As the mesoscale dynamics of lake-effect snow (LES) are becoming better understood, recent and ongoing research is beginning to focus on the large-scale environments conducive to LES. Synoptic-scale composites are constructed for Lake Michigan and Lake Superior LES events by employing an LES case repository for these regions within the U.S. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data for each LES event were used to construct synoptic maps of dominant LES patterns for each lake. These maps were formulated using a previously implemented composite technique that blends principal component analysis with a k-means cluster analysis. A sample case from each resulting cluster was also selected and simulated using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecast model to obtain an example mesoscale depiction of the LES environment. The study revealed four synoptic setups for Lake Michigan and three for Lake Superior whose primary differences were discrepancies in a surface pressure dipole structure previously linked with Great Lakes LES. These subtle synoptic-scale differences suggested that while overall LES impacts were driven more by the mesoscale conditions for these lakes, synoptic-scale conditions still provided important insight into the character of LES forcing mechanisms, primarily the steering flow and air–lake thermodynamics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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Review

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17 pages, 789 KiB

Open AccessReview

Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over the Iberian Peninsula under Climate Change Scenarios: A Review

by Susana C. Pereira, David Carvalho and Alfredo Rocha

Climate 2021, 9(9), 139; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090139 - 14 Sep 2021

Cited by 36 | Viewed by 6834

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of temperature and precipitation extremes over the Iberian Peninsula, focusing on observed changes in temperature and precipitation during the past years and what are the projected changes by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this review is to assess the current literature about extreme events and their change under global warming. Observational and climate modeling studies from the past decade were considered in this review. Based on observational evidence and in climate modeling experiments, mean and maximum temperatures are projected to increase about 2 °C around the mid-century and up to 4 °C by the end of the century. The more pronounced warming is expected in summer for the central-south region of IP, with temperatures reaching 6 °C to 8 °C around 2100. Days with maximum temperature exceeding 30 °C and 40 °C will become more common (20 to 50 days/year), and the heatwaves will be 7 to 10 times more frequent. Significative reduction in events related to cold extremes. The climate change signal for precipitation in IP shows a considerable decline in precipitation (10–15%) for all seasons except winter. It is predicted that heavy precipitation will increase by 7% to 15%. Extreme precipitation will increase slightly (5%) by mid-century, then decline to 0% by 2100. Significant reduction in wet days (40% to 60%) followed by a dryness trend more pronounced by the end of the century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events)

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