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Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate
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Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 March 2023) | Viewed by 6283

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Abhishekh Kumar Srivastava

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Interests: weather and climate extremes; precipitation extremes; decadal variability and predictability; climate change
Prof. Dr. Richard Grotjahn

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616-8627, USA
Interests: atmospheric general circulation; short term extremes in present and future climate; climate model simulation of short term extremes; dynamic meteorology

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Extreme precipitation events can potentially result into catastrophic events like flash flooding, fluvial flooding, landslides, damage to infrastructure and ecosystems, etc. observed in the recent decades over various parts of the world. Such events not only cause huge economic losses but also result in loss of human lives. Therefore, accurate and reliable predictions of extreme precipitation events are a necessary first step to mitigate the damages caused. Studies indicate that the global hydrological cycle has changed over the last decades, leading to more intense and more frequent precipitation, in response to an increase in global temperature mainly driven by anthropogenic activities. These changes in the global hydrological cycle and consequent changes in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to continue in the future. However, the extreme precipitation response to human activities is complex due to multiple processes involved over a broad range of space and time scales. Therefore, local precipitation response is not uniform across spatial and temporal scales. Even at a one location, the responses of both the short and long duration precipitation are different. This issue is also more complicated due to the: lack of reliable long term high resolution global observational data and systematic model biases. The low signal-to-noise ratio due to factors such as chaotic weather and large internal variability of the climate system makes the inference challenging.

In this special issue we invite contributions in the form of original research articles, communications, and review articles addressing the following, but not limited to, areas of research:

  • Statistics of precipitation extremes in observations, reanalyses, and regional and global climate models.
  • Projected changes in the statistics of extreme precipitation and its indices such as those defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI).
  • Research on process-based understanding of precipitation extremes in current and future climate. Processes could include synoptic elements: e.g., tropical cyclones; mesoscale elements: e.g., thunderstorms; down to cloud microphysics.
  • Predictability and prediction of extreme precipitation events.
  • Detection and attribution studies

Dr. Abhishekh Srivastava
Prof. Dr. Richard Grotjahn
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Climate is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1800 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • extreme precipitation
  • predictability of extreme precipitation
  • ETCCDI indices
  • extreme value statistics
  • detection and attribution
  • climate change

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Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

13 pages, 4229 KiB  
Article
Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis
by Brandon J. Fisel, Nathan E. Erickson, Colin R. Young, Ada L. Ellingworth and William J. Gutowski, Jr.
Climate 2023, 11(5), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050112 - 19 May 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1602
Abstract
The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can [...] Read more.
The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate)
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24 pages, 11072 KiB  
Article
Impact of Climate Change and Consumptive Demands on the Performance of São Francisco River Reservoirs, Brazil
by Marx Vinicius Maciel da Silva, Carlos Eduardo Sousa Lima and Cleiton da Silva Silveira
Climate 2023, 11(4), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040089 - 16 Apr 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1679
Abstract
Climate change in the coming decades could intensify extreme events such as severe droughts. Combined with the possible increase of water demands, these changes exert a great deal of pressure on the water systems. In order to confirm this assumption, a set of [...] Read more.
Climate change in the coming decades could intensify extreme events such as severe droughts. Combined with the possible increase of water demands, these changes exert a great deal of pressure on the water systems. In order to confirm this assumption, a set of scenarios was proposed in this study to consider the combined impact of climate changes and the increase in water demand on the main multiple-use reservoirs of São Francisco River, Brazil. For this purpose, five CMIP6 climate models were used, considering two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The affluent natural flows and regulated flows were estimated to the adopted reservoirs considering all existing, new and projected demands. The combination of scenarios indicated an increase in Potential Evapotranspiration; possible significant reduction in water availability, with a decrease in precipitation with a magnitude of −15% in the most pessimistic scenarios and a decrease in flows with a magnitude varying between −5% and −40% in the Sobradinho and Três Marias reservoirs; growth in water demand, mainly for irrigation, with annual rates of 6.80%, 7.42%, 10.99% and 9.29% for Itaparica, Sobradinho, Três Marias and Retiro Baixo, respectively; and a substantial reduction in the performance of the evaluated reservoirs, mainly for the Retiro Baixo and Itaparica reservoirs, which showed a high vulnerability index and a low sustainability index. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate)
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22 pages, 4514 KiB  
Article
Can Simple Metrics Identify the Process(es) Driving Extreme Precipitation?
by Leif M. Swenson
Climate 2023, 11(4), 88; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040088 - 13 Apr 2023
Viewed by 1798
Abstract
This work seeks an automatic algorithm to determine the primary meteorological cause(s) of individual extreme precipitation events. Such determinations have been made before, but required a by-hand analysis of each separate event. This is very time-consuming and the field would benefit from an [...] Read more.
This work seeks an automatic algorithm to determine the primary meteorological cause(s) of individual extreme precipitation events. Such determinations have been made before, but required a by-hand analysis of each separate event. This is very time-consuming and the field would benefit from an automatic process. This is especially relevant when comparing different datasets to determine which ones most closely hew towards reality. This paper tests three simple metrics over the continental United States using the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting’s (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). The metrics tested measure and compare the strength of three meteorological processes associated with extreme precipitation: fronts, convection, and cyclones. A multivariate statistical technique as well as individual case studies show evidence that the three meteorological processes of interest cannot be isolated from one another using these simple physical metrics. This shows the difficulty in finding “pure” cases of these precipitation-generating processes and suggests approaching these processes with an eye toward mixed-type events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate)
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