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Drought Early Warning
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Drought Early Warning

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 January 2023) | Viewed by 30712

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Sivakumar Mannava

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Former Director, Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 27 Chemin des Corbillettes, 1216 Geneva, Switzerland
Interests: agroclimatology; natural resource management; climate variability; climate change
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Drought is widely recognized as a slow-creeping natural hazard that occurs as a consequence of natural climatic variability. In recent years, concern has grown world-wide that droughts may be increasing in frequency and severity, given the changing climatic conditions. Responses to droughts in most parts of the world are generally reactive in terms of crisis management, and are known to be untimely, poorly coordinated, and fragmented. Consequently, the economic, social, and environmental impacts of droughts have increased significantly worldwide. Because of their long-term socio-economic impacts, droughts are by far the most damaging of all natural disasters.

The context of current droughts calls for pro-active future actions enabling us to cope with their associated imperatives. There is an urgent need to put effective monitoring in place and develop early warning systems to deliver timely information to decision-makers. To provide effective early warning systems, there is a need to enhance the national/regional/global observation networks, particularly the meteorological, hydrological, and ecological networks and information delivery systems to improve public understanding of, and preparedness for, droughts.

In order to implement effective drought monitoring and early warning systems, it is important to identify and evaluate existing comprehensive, integrated drought monitoring systems which couple multiple climate, water, soil and crop parameters, socio-economic, and environmental indicators and indices to fully characterize the magnitude, spatial extent, trends, duration, and potential impacts of droughts. For effective implementation of the early warning systems, it is important to assess the current capabilities of regional outlooks and forecasts for the duration and severity of drought, improve the skills of these forecasts, and enhance communication to users.

Dr. Sivakumar Mannava
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • drought risk
  • vulnerability
  • drought monitoring
  • drought preparedness
  • early warning systems
  • impact assessment
  • drought management

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

Jump to: Review

18 pages, 5426 KiB  
Article
Reviewing the Status of Droughts, Early Warning Systems and Climate Services in South India: Experiences Learned
by Punnoli Dhanya and Vellingiri Geethalakshmi
Climate 2023, 11(3), 60; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030060 - 6 Mar 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3523
Abstract
Drought is one of the most challenging disasters that impact the natural and cultural ecosystems across the world, especially in the climate dependent sectors of arid and semi-arid areas. The aim of this article is to share the experiences gained and enhance the [...] Read more.
Drought is one of the most challenging disasters that impact the natural and cultural ecosystems across the world, especially in the climate dependent sectors of arid and semi-arid areas. The aim of this article is to share the experiences gained and enhance the readers’ awareness on the status of drought and process of the early warning systems (EWS) in south India. Drought status of three agroecologically different states is included in this article, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. As far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, Karur, Thuthukudi, Krishnagiri, Namakkal, Trichy and Thirunelveli districts are water scarce compared to other districts in the state. The districts such as Wayanad, Thiruvananthapuram, Idukki and Palakkad in Kerala have received lesser rainfall compared to the other parts of the state during the period 1981 to 2019. In Telangana, the mandals such as Nagarkurnool, Jogulamba-Gadwal, Wanaparthy, Mahabubnagar Nalgonda and Yedadri are frequently hit by dry spells and droughts. As a case study, weather early warning dissemination, carried out at Parambikulam Aliyar basin, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, during Khariff and Rabi seasons, using IMDs medium and extended range forecast is also elaborated in particular in the article. As far as the accuracy of forecast is concerned, probability of false detection (false alarm rate) was found to be 0.81 for Khariff and 0.30 for Rabi season, indicating the need for better performance in the accuracy of dry spell early warning, disaster preparedness and response. In-spite of this, access to early warning has supported the farmers during harvest and land preparation with a utility score of 72% and 59%, respectively. In Parambikulam Aliyar basin, remote sensing products such as MODIS-NDVI, NDWI and TWI was also used to identify the real-time progression of monthly vegetative condition for Kharif and Rabi seasons. NDVI values were used to monitor the district level vegetation condition and compared it with the drought year 2016, the difference in area under barren land was 76% less during Khariff, 2021 and 44% during Rabi, 2021.This study is a compilation of lessons learned from different states and the existing knowledge and practice in early warnings, and recommends the need for a holistic approach in drought and dry spell monitoring along with better accuracy and dissemination to minimize climate-related shocks in agriculture. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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13 pages, 3421 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of the Impact of Seasonal Agroclimatic Information Used for Early Warning and Farmer Communities’ Vulnerability Reduction in Southwestern Niger
by Tinni Halidou Seydou, Alhassane Agali, Sita Aissatou, Traore B. Seydou, Lona Issaka and Bouzou Moussa Ibrahim
Climate 2023, 11(2), 31; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11020031 - 20 Jan 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2051
Abstract
In Niger (a fully Sahelian country), the use of climate information is one of the early warning strategies (EWSs) for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in farmer communities. It helps farmers to better anticipate risks and choose timely alternative options that can allow them to [...] Read more.
In Niger (a fully Sahelian country), the use of climate information is one of the early warning strategies (EWSs) for reducing socio-economic vulnerabilities in farmer communities. It helps farmers to better anticipate risks and choose timely alternative options that can allow them to generate more profit. This study assesses the impacts of the use of climate information and services that benefit end-users. Individual surveys and focus groups were conducted with a sample of 368 people in eight communes in Southwestern Niger. The survey was conducted within the framework of the ANADIA project implemented by the National Meteorological Direction (NMD) of Niger. The survey aims to identify different types of climate services received by communities and evaluates the major benefits gained from their use. Mostly, the communities received climate (73.6%) and weather (99%) information on rainfall, temperature, dust, wind, clouds, and air humidity. Few producers in the area (10%) received information on seasonal forecasts of the agrometeorological characteristics of the rainy season. The information is not widely disseminated in the villages during the roving seminars conducted by the NMD. For most people, this information is highly relevant to their needs because of its practical advice for options to be deployed to mitigate disasters for agriculture, livestock, health, water resources, and food security. In those communities, 82% of farmers have (at least once) changed their routine practices as a result of the advice and awareness received according to the climate information. The information received enables farmers (64.4%) to adjust their investments according to the profile of the upcoming rainfall season. The use of climate information and related advice led to an increase of about 64 bunches (equivalent to 10 bags of 100 kg) in annual millet production, representing an income increase of about 73,000 FCFA from an average farmland of 3 ha per farmer. In addition, the use of climate information helps to reduce the risks of floods and droughts, which often cause massive losses to crop production, animal and human life, infrastructure, materials, and goods. It has also enabled communities to effectively manage seeds and animal foods and to plan social events, departures and returns to rural exodus. These analyses confirm that the use of climate information serves as an EWS that contributes to increasing the resilience of local populations in the Sahel. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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16 pages, 3511 KiB  
Article
Annual, Seasonal, and Monthly Rainfall Trend Analysis through Non-Parametric Tests in the Sebou River Basin (SRB), Northern Morocco
by Ridouane Kessabi, Mohamed Hanchane, Nir Y. Krakauer, Imane Aboubi, Jaafar El Kassioui and Bouchta El Khazzan
Climate 2022, 10(11), 170; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110170 - 5 Nov 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 4604
Abstract
This paper explores the temporal and spatial patterns of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall series during the period of 1961–2018 at 15 stations in the agriculturally important Sebou river basin, northern Morocco. Trends were investigated using the classical non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the [...] Read more.
This paper explores the temporal and spatial patterns of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall series during the period of 1961–2018 at 15 stations in the agriculturally important Sebou river basin, northern Morocco. Trends were investigated using the classical non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Theil–Sen approach at 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels. A general decreasing trend was found at the annual scale, significant at the 95% confidence level at 8 stations out of 15 (53%). A particularly large decreasing trend between −30 mm and −50 mm per decade was found in the north and eastern parts of the basin. Autumn rainfall tended to increase, but this was not statistically significant. During the winter months, rainfall tended to decrease sharply (−27 mm and −40 mm per decade) in the northern slopes of the Rif mountains, while in spring, the mountainous area of the basin recorded decreases ranging between −12 mm and −16 mm per decade. During winter and spring, negative trends were significant at ten stations (66%). Summer rainfall tends toward a decrease, but the absolute change is small. These results help to understand the rainfall variability in the Sebou river basin and allow for improved mitigation strategies and water resource plans based on a prospective view of the impact of climate change on the river basin. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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Review

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17 pages, 1556 KiB  
Review
Early Drought Stress Warning in Plants: Color Pictures of Photosystem II Photochemistry
by Michael Moustakas, Ilektra Sperdouli and Julietta Moustaka
Climate 2022, 10(11), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10110179 - 18 Nov 2022
Cited by 35 | Viewed by 4442
Abstract
Drought, the major limiting factor for plant growth and crop productivity, affecting several physiological and biochemical processes, is expected to increase in duration, intensity, and frequency as a consequence of climate change. Plants have developed several approaches to either avoid or tolerate water [...] Read more.
Drought, the major limiting factor for plant growth and crop productivity, affecting several physiological and biochemical processes, is expected to increase in duration, intensity, and frequency as a consequence of climate change. Plants have developed several approaches to either avoid or tolerate water deficit. Plants as a response to drought stress (DS), close stomata, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) entry in the leaf, thus decreasing photosynthesis which results in reduced synthesis of essential organic molecules that sustain the life on earth. The reduced CO2 fixation, decreases electron transport rate (ETR), while the absorbed light energy overdoes what can be used for photochemistry resulting in excess reactive oxygen species (ROS) and oxidative stress. Current imaging techniques allow non-destructive monitoring of changes in the physiological state of plants under DS. Thermographic visualization, near-infrared imaging, and chlorophyll a fluorescence imaging are the most common verified imaging techniques for detecting stress-related changes in the display of light emission from plant leaves. Chlorophyll a fluorescence analysis, by use of the pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) method, can principally calculate the amount of absorbed light energy that is directed for photochemistry in photosystem II (PSII) (ΦPSII), dissipated as heat (ΦNPQ), or dissipated by the non-radiative fluorescence processes (ΦNO). The method of chlorophyll a fluorescence imaging analysis by providing colour pictures of the whole leaf PSII photochemistry, can successfully identify the early drought stress warning signals. Its implementation allowed visualization of the leaf spatial photosynthetic heterogeneity and discrimination between mild drought stress (MiDS), moderate drought stress (MoDS), and severe drought stress (SDS). The fraction of open reaction centers of PSII (qp) is suggested as the most sensitive and suitable indicator of an early drought stress warning and also for selecting drought tolerant cultivars. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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20 pages, 562 KiB  
Review
Implications of Regional Droughts and Transboundary Drought Risks on Drought Monitoring and Early Warning: A Review
by Sivapuram Venkata Rama Krishna Prabhakar
Climate 2022, 10(9), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090124 - 23 Aug 2022
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3880
Abstract
Regional droughts are increasing in frequency and climate change projections indicate an exacerbation in the occurrence of regional droughts in the future. Droughts are complex hydrometeorological events, and the complexity of cause-and-effect relationships across administrative and political borders can make drought management a [...] Read more.
Regional droughts are increasing in frequency and climate change projections indicate an exacerbation in the occurrence of regional droughts in the future. Droughts are complex hydrometeorological events, and the complexity of cause-and-effect relationships across administrative and political borders can make drought management a challenge. While countries are largely focused on assessing drought impacts within their borders, thereby providing focused information for the relevant administration, the impact on communities, industries, and countries that are distantly connected with the affected location must also be taken into consideration. If not considered, drought impacts can be underestimated, and adaptation actions undertaken may not completely address the drought risks. Understanding transboundary drought risks is an important and integral part of drought risk reduction and it will grow in importance as the world experiences more integration at regional and global levels on multiple fronts. To address drought risks comprehensively, the new paradigm demands that the impacts of regional droughts are fully understood, that this understanding is incorporated into drought monitoring and early warning systems, and that drought early warning information is provided to all stakeholders, including those beyond the boundaries of the affected region, thereby eliciting appropriate action. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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20 pages, 1022 KiB  
Review
Improving Early Warning of Drought in Australia
by Stephen C. Lellyett, Robert N. Truelove and Abul K. S. Huda
Climate 2022, 10(7), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070091 - 21 Jun 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2963
Abstract
This invited review outlines a selection of recent technical and communication advances, in certain areas of climate and weather science that could improve the capability and utility of drought early warning systems in Australia. First, a selection of current operational outputs and their [...] Read more.
This invited review outlines a selection of recent technical and communication advances, in certain areas of climate and weather science that could improve the capability and utility of drought early warning systems in Australia. First, a selection of current operational outputs and their significance for drought early warning is reviewed, then a selection of advancements in the Research and Development (R&D) pipeline are considered, which have potential to help enable better decision-making by stakeholders subject to drought risk. The next generation of drought early warning systems should have a focus on index- and impact-based prediction models that go beyond basic weather and climate parameters, at seasonal through to multi-year timescales. Convergence and integration of emerging research, science and technology is called for across the fields of climate, agronomy, environment, economics and social science, to improve early warning information. The enablement of more predictively based drought policy, should facilitate more proactive responses by stakeholders throughout the agricultural value chain, and should make stakeholders more drought resilient. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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23 pages, 358 KiB  
Review
Drought Early Warning in Agri-Food Systems
by Maarten van Ginkel and Chandrashekhar Biradar
Climate 2021, 9(9), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090134 - 26 Aug 2021
Cited by 38 | Viewed by 7340
Abstract
Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term reduced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual famine. Early action can prevent escalation of [...] Read more.
Droughts will increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spread under climate change. Drought affects numerous sectors in society and the natural environment, including short-term reduced crop production, social conflict over water allocation, severe outmigration, and eventual famine. Early action can prevent escalation of impacts, requiring drought early warning systems (DEWSs) that give current assessments and sufficient notice for active risk management. While most droughts are relatively slow in onset, often resulting in late responses, flash droughts are becoming more frequent, and their sudden onset poses challenging demands on DEWSs for timely communication. We examine several DEWSs at global, regional, and national scales, with a special emphasis on agri-food systems. Many of these have been successful, such as some of the responses to 2015–2017 droughts in Africa and Latin America. Successful examples show that early involvement of stakeholders, from DEWS development to implementation, is crucial. In addition, regional and global cooperation can cross-fertilize with new ideas, reduce reaction time, and raise efficiency. Broadening partnerships also includes recruiting citizen science and including seemingly subjective indigenous knowledge that can improve monitoring, data collection, and uptake of response measures. More precise and more useful DEWSs in agri-food systems will prove even more cost-effective in averting the need for emergency responses, improving global food security. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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