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Insects
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Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management
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Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management

A special issue of Insects (ISSN 2075-4450). This special issue belongs to the section "Insect Pest and Vector Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 June 2025 | Viewed by 5878

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Francis Drummond

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA
Interests: wild blueberry; pollination; genetics; ecology; pest ecology; simulation modeling; statistics; plant physiological ecology
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Insect pests share a common attribute. Their densities and genetic profiles often change rapidly in space and time. Management tactics that ignore this feature of their life histories are usually based upon unidimensional tactics, such as the sole use of pesticides, which are not integrated with cultural, biological, or behavioral methods of control and are certain to fail in the long term.

This Special Issue is focused on the use of modeling, specifically, conceptual, statistical, numerical, or simulation methods that provide the basis for a more integrated and sustainable pest management system either for a single pest or a complex of several pests associated with an agroecosystem.

Submitted papers should present the ecological background and pest dynamics that are integral to the focal pest or pests and then describe the modeling approach used to investigate pest dynamics from a management perspective. The results are expected to enhance or design a new sustainable pest management strategy or provide a new view of the pest dynamics that may aid in future pest management tactics.    

Prof. Dr. Francis Drummond
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Insects is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • insect dynamics
  • insect pest management
  • modeling
  • sustainable pest management strategy
  • population genetics
  • genetic diversity
  • population dynamics

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

20 pages, 5896 KiB  
Article
Assessment of the Potential Suitable Habitat of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, 1852 (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Under Climate Change and Human Activities Based on the Biomod2 Ensemble Model
by Liang Zhang, Chaokun Yang, Guanglin Xie, Ping Wang and Wenkai Wang
Insects 2024, 15(12), 930; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15120930 - 27 Nov 2024
Viewed by 103
Abstract
Effective use of species distribution models can assess the risk of spreading forest pests. In this study, based on 434 occurrence records and eight environmental variables, an ensemble model was applied to identify key environmental factors affecting the distribution of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, [...] Read more.
Effective use of species distribution models can assess the risk of spreading forest pests. In this study, based on 434 occurrence records and eight environmental variables, an ensemble model was applied to identify key environmental factors affecting the distribution of Apriona rugicollis Chevrolat, 1852 and predict its potential habitat and its relative areas of change under current and future climatic conditions. The results indicate that humidity, solar radiation, topography, and human activities were the main factors influencing the distribution of A. rugicollis. Under the current climate scenario, suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in East Asia, including North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Myanmar, Vietnam, and China. Under future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitat for A. rugicollis gradually increases, especially in China and Japan, which are at high risk of spreading. In addition, the suitable habitat of A. rugicollis will expand northeastward to higher latitudes. The results of this study provide an important scientific basis for policymakers to formulate strategies for monitoring and controlling A. rugicollis in response to climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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15 pages, 4684 KiB  
Article
Prediction and Analysis of the Global Suitable Habitat of the Oryctes rhinoceros (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Based on the MaxEnt Model
by Chun Fu, Qianqian Qian, Xinqi Deng, Zhihang Zhuo and Danping Xu
Insects 2024, 15(10), 774; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15100774 - 7 Oct 2024
Viewed by 932
Abstract
The Asiatic rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), is a destructive invasive species that poses a serious threat to palms, oil palms, and other plants. Defining a suitable area for the distribution of O. rhinoceros is essential for the development of [...] Read more.
The Asiatic rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes rhinoceros (Linnaeus, 1758) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), is a destructive invasive species that poses a serious threat to palms, oil palms, and other plants. Defining a suitable area for the distribution of O. rhinoceros is essential for the development of appropriate policies and preventive measures. In this work, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS software were used to predict the potential geographic distribution of O. rhinoceros in the world based on occurrence data and related environmental variables and to speculate on the influence of environmental variables on the distribution of O. rhinoceros. The results showed that the suitable areas of O. rhinoceros beetle were mainly distributed in 30° N–30° S, and the highly suitable areas were concentrated in South Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and northern Oceania. The key environmental variables that determine the distribution location of O. rhinoceros are Precipitation of Wettest Month (bio13), Temperature of July (tmin7), Minimum Temperature of November (tmin11), and Precipitation of September (prec9). The prediction results of the MaxEnt model can reflect the global distribution of O. rhinoceros. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of O. rhinoceros and the development of relevant quarantine measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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15 pages, 7659 KiB  
Article
Mapping Species Distributions of Latoia consocia Walker under Climate Change Using Current Geographical Presence Data and MAXENT (CMIP 6)
by Yuhan Wu, Danping Xu, Yaqin Peng and Zhihang Zhuo
Insects 2024, 15(10), 756; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15100756 - 29 Sep 2024
Viewed by 836
Abstract
Latoia consocia Walker is an important phytophagous pest that has rapidly spread across North China in recent years, posing a severe threat to related plants. To study the impact of climatic conditions on its distribution and to predict its distribution under current and [...] Read more.
Latoia consocia Walker is an important phytophagous pest that has rapidly spread across North China in recent years, posing a severe threat to related plants. To study the impact of climatic conditions on its distribution and to predict its distribution under current and future climate conditions, the MaxEnt niche model and ArcGIS 10.8 software were used. The results showed that the MaxEnt model performs well in predicting the distribution of L. consocia, with an AUC value of 0.913. The annual precipitation (Bio12), the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), the temperature annual range (Bio7), and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) are key environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of L. consocia. Under current climate conditions, L. consocia has a highly suitable growth area of 2243 km2 in China, among which Taiwan has the largest high-suitable area with a total area of 1450 km2. With climate warming, the potential habitat area for L. consocia shows an overall decreasing trend in future. This work provides a scientific basis for research on pest control and ecological protection. A “graded response” detection and early warning system, as well as prevention and control strategies, can be developed for potentially suitable areas to effectively address this pest challenge. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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14 pages, 4718 KiB  
Article
Global Distribution Prediction of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Insights from the Optimised MaxEnt Model
by Yaqin Peng, Junyi Yang, Danping Xu and Zhihang Zhuo
Insects 2024, 15(9), 708; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15090708 - 17 Sep 2024
Viewed by 879
Abstract
Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer is a major pest affecting bamboo forests economically, causing significant damage to bamboo forests in Sichuan Province, China. To understand how C. buqueti responds to future climate conditions, an optimized Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential [...] Read more.
Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer is a major pest affecting bamboo forests economically, causing significant damage to bamboo forests in Sichuan Province, China. To understand how C. buqueti responds to future climate conditions, an optimized Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential global distribution patterns of C. buqueti under current climate conditions and three different future climate scenarios and to analyze the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The results indicate that Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), Bio04 (temperature seasonality), Bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), and Bio02 (mean diurnal temperature range) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of this species. The global area of high-suitability habitats for C. buqueti is 9.00 × 104 km2, primarily distributed in China. Under three different future climate scenarios, there are varying degrees of expansion in both the total suitable habitat and the medium-suitability areas for C. buqueti. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the medium-suitability area of the species increases the most, reaching 9.83 × 104 km2. Additionally, these findings can serve as a reference for developing and implementing control strategies, assisting relevant authorities in more effectively managing and controlling this pest, and mitigating its potential threats to bamboo forest ecosystems and economies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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11 pages, 1022 KiB  
Article
Population Dynamics of the Mite Varroa destructor in Honey Bee (Apis mellifera) Colonies in a Temperate Semi-Arid Climate
by Carlos Aurelio Medina-Flores, Alejandro Saucedo Rojas, Ernesto Guzman-Novoa and Luis Alaniz Gutiérrez
Insects 2024, 15(9), 696; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15090696 - 14 Sep 2024
Viewed by 1280
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the population dynamics of the mite Varroa destructor in honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies in a temperate semi-arid climate in Mexico. Ten colonies homogeneous in population, food stores, and levels of mite infestation were used. The [...] Read more.
This study aimed to analyze the population dynamics of the mite Varroa destructor in honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies in a temperate semi-arid climate in Mexico. Ten colonies homogeneous in population, food stores, and levels of mite infestation were used. The mite infestation rate in brood and adult bees, total number of mites, daily mite fall, brood and adult bee population, and food stores were determined periodically for 10 months. There was a significant effect (p < 0.05) of sampling period on the population of V. destructor in adult bees, brood, total mite population, and daily fallen mites. The total mite population increased by 26% on average per colony. The increase in brood amount reduced the mite infestation rate in adult bees, and the opposite occurred when the brood decreased. Monitoring V. destructor populations by recording fallen mites is more reliable than determining mite infestation rates in bees, as mite fall has a dynamic pattern similar to that of the total mite population. The best period to apply an acaricide treatment in the region of study is between November and December because most mites were in the phoretic phase, since there was less brood in the colonies compared to other times. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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16 pages, 3872 KiB  
Article
Effects of Global Climate Warming on the Biological Characteristics of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)
by Chun Fu, Zhiqian Liu, Danping Xu, Yaqin Peng, Biyu Liu and Zhihang Zhuo
Insects 2024, 15(9), 689; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15090689 - 12 Sep 2024
Viewed by 767
Abstract
Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a significant economic pest that has recently invaded Africa and Asia. However, much of the information regarding its ecological capabilities in these newly invaded environments remains largely unknown. In this study, the life history traits of the fall [...] Read more.
Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a significant economic pest that has recently invaded Africa and Asia. However, much of the information regarding its ecological capabilities in these newly invaded environments remains largely unknown. In this study, the life history traits of the fall armyworm under conditions of increased temperature, different photoperiods, and varying humidity levels were systematically evaluated. Among 43 studies, a total of 20 studies were included in the analysis by passing the screening criteria, and random-effects meta-analysis, fixed-effects meta-analysis, and meta-regression were conducted. It has been found that with the increase in temperature above 20 °C, various physiological indicators of the fall armyworm are significantly enhanced. When the temperature reaches 32 °C, the physiological activities of S. frugiperda are at their highest point. As the temperature increases, the duration of each developmental stage of the fall armyworm decreases significantly, accompanied by an increase in oviposition quantity and period in females. Additionally, the pupal development time is shortened, which leads to an increase in the lifespan of the adult moth. Using temperature and relative humidity as environmental variables, the optimal survival conditions for each insect state of the fall armyworm were calculated. These findings can assist in predicting the population dynamics of the fall armyworm and in formulating appropriate and practical management strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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16 pages, 2794 KiB  
Article
Meta-Analysis and MaxEnt Model Prediction of the Distribution of Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley in China under the Context of Climate Change
by Zhiqian Liu, Yaqin Peng, Danping Xu and Zhihang Zhuo
Insects 2024, 15(9), 675; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15090675 - 6 Sep 2024
Viewed by 727
Abstract
Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable [...] Read more.
Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of P. solenopsis increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model this study predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5), the distribution of P. solenopsis will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. We conducted a meta-analysis of P. solenopsis, including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18 °C to 39 °C on the developmental cycle of P. solenopsis. As the temperature rises, the development cycle of P. solenopsis gradually decreases. Additionally, by combining the MaxEnt model, we predicted the current and potential future distribution range of P. solenopsis. The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of P. solenopsis in China will expand. This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest’s occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring P. solenopsis and help them formulate relevant control strategies. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Insect Dynamics: Modeling in Insect Pest Management)
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