Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management

A special issue of Journal of Risk and Financial Management (ISSN 1911-8074). This special issue belongs to the section "Risk".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 August 2023) | Viewed by 49375

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The European Academy of Sciences LTD, 71-75 Shelton Street Covent Garden, London WC2H 9JQ, UK
Interests: strategic management; business development; business; entrepreneurship; innovation; business analysis; business model innovation; sustainable development; economic security
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The development of the world economy at the beginning of the 21st century is characterized by the growth of turbulence and a return of the cyclical crisis phase of development. At the turn of the third millennium, a new economic reality emerged, characterized by profound upheavals caused by many new phenomena and processes, such as the comprehensive transformation of economic systems, the formation of postindustrial information society, the knowledge economy, education, and economic change, which were caused by globalization, computerization, informatization, and so on. Over the last decade, an unprecedented systemic integrated crisis, which expresses instability, turbulence, and variability of the modern world, has been added to this list of profound changes. The world economy is in constant turbulent motion, and new threats and dangers are constantly emerging. For example, COVID 19 has led to the collapse of the world economy, the destruction of stock markets, mass unemployment, and socio-ecological threats to human existence in general. Existing risk management mechanisms and models are not able to cope with the emergence of threats at different hierarchical levels of the economy, from the global to the personal. In this regard, there is a need to identify ways to minimize the primary negative factors, especially economic factors, that may affect human activity. Only global implementation of a model of responsibility (as a set of economic, social, and environmental attributes) as a strategy for the development of society will determine risk management mechanisms. Economic crises lead to the emergence or intensification of global economic problems, but the solutions to existing problems are difficult to achieve during the crises, which puts limits on the meaningful expression of potential solutions and concepts. In addition, turbulence involves fluctuations in the economic situations of individual countries, which involve periodic intensification and decline. Crises are characterized by long-term recession, the consequences of which are manifested in many countries around the world. Economic turbulence is a threat to both countries and the world at large because at any time, turbulence can turn into a crisis, the scale and consequences of which are difficult to predict. The current global crisis of 2020 arose precisely as a consequence of global processes, integrated in the economic and political lives of each country. The inability of countries to create a defense mechanism to counter turbulent processes, the competition between economic interests, and the inability to live in a global world has led to the collapse of the scientific platform for research in various fields. It is this immediate narrative that requires the intensification of scientific research in the field of risk management in various fields of activity in order to form a new paradigm for the protection of society in conditions of turbulent change.

The deadline for the first round of call for papers is 31 March 2022.

Prof. Dr. Svetlana Drobyazko
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • Risk management
  • Risk modeling
  • Cost-effectiveness instability
  • COVID-19 challenges
  • World economy
  • Turbulent processes

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

25 pages, 2092 KiB  
Article
Deciphering DeFi: A Comprehensive Analysis and Visualization of Risks in Decentralized Finance
by Tim Weingärtner, Fabian Fasser, Pedro Reis Sá da Costa and Walter Farkas
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 454; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100454 - 20 Oct 2023
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 7653
Abstract
Decentralized finance (DeFi) promises a revolution in financial accessibility, transparency, and automation. Yet, its very novelty exposes participants to a number of additional risks and challenges. This study aims to address the risks associated with DeFi, while also conducting a comparative analysis to [...] Read more.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) promises a revolution in financial accessibility, transparency, and automation. Yet, its very novelty exposes participants to a number of additional risks and challenges. This study aims to address the risks associated with DeFi, while also conducting a comparative analysis to those of classical/traditional finance (TradFi). After introducing DeFi and its defining characteristics, such as the use of smart contracts, blockchain technology, and decentralized governance, the paper outlines the principal risks associated with DeFi. Drawing insights from an extensive literature review of 200 recent articles, of which 50 were thoroughly analyzed, the study compares risks of DeFi and TradFi, categorizing these into systematic and unsystematic risks. Furthermore, we introduce the ‘risk wheel’, an innovative tool tailored to understand and navigate the subtleties of DeFi risks, finding potential applications in risk assessment, management, and even education. This paper’s primary objective is to provide a detailed and impartial examination of the risks associated with DeFi and their comparison to traditional finance in order to assist stakeholders in making informed decisions and mitigating possible losses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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12 pages, 433 KiB  
Article
Modeling of Social Risks in the Labor Sphere
by Olha Shulha, Tatiana Kostyshyna, Maryna Semykina, Liudmyla Katan and Hanna Smirnova
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(10), 488; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100488 - 14 Oct 2021
Viewed by 1779
Abstract
Modern society has developed in such a way that social reality is characterized by the significant dynamics of all processes and their uncertainty. Under such conditions, risk accompanies any purposeful activity of the social subject, and, in turn, the latter is aimed at [...] Read more.
Modern society has developed in such a way that social reality is characterized by the significant dynamics of all processes and their uncertainty. Under such conditions, risk accompanies any purposeful activity of the social subject, and, in turn, the latter is aimed at reducing the uncertainty of its results. The purpose of this paper is to form the basis of a comprehensive study of social risks in the labor sphere and to develop practical recommendations for minimizing their negative consequences. In order to determine the main factors influencing the probability for the unemployed not to work in the specialty in which they have trained, we used the data of a micro-level survey on economic activity of the population to build linear regression models based on structural variables. As a result of applying the method of economic-mathematical modeling, in particular the basics of probability theory, the models of social risks of unemployment in terms of occupational groups and employment of unemployed persons outside of the specialty they have trained in were developed. The models developed made it possible to formalize and identify patterns of supply and demand dynamics of labor in terms of professions, as well as to identify the main factors influencing the change in the probabilistic characteristics of employment of unemployed persons outside of the specialty they have trained in. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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20 pages, 860 KiB  
Article
Model of Assessing the Overdue Debts in a Commercial Bank Using Neuro-Fuzzy Technologies
by Dmytro Kovalenko, Olga Afanasieva, Nani Zabuta, Tetiana Boiko and Rosen Rosenov Baltov
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(5), 216; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14050216 - 10 May 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3466
Abstract
This article considers the problems of overdue credit debt and the creation of effective methods to manage problem debts in banks. The purpose of this paper is to study the problem of overdue credit debt and create effective methods to manage problem debts [...] Read more.
This article considers the problems of overdue credit debt and the creation of effective methods to manage problem debts in banks. The purpose of this paper is to study the problem of overdue credit debt and create effective methods to manage problem debts in financial institutions. Based on a combination of tools of fuzzy logic theory and artificial neural networks, an economic-mathematical model of collection scoring was built. Kohonen self-organizing maps were used to set the parameters of membership functions in the process of fuzzification of quantitative variables of the built model. Data were taken from the official websites of four Bulgarian banks for 2015–2019. The volume of the prepared sample amounted to 1000 credit agreements with active overdue payments. The practical value of the built model of collection scoring for the recovery of overdue debt lies in the possibility to make recommendations for work with each segment of the portfolio of overdue loans in accordance with the calculated level of credit risk. The introduction of credit risk assessment models based on neuro-fuzzy technologies in the work of financial institutions will have a positive impact on the financial results of lending activities of banks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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15 pages, 1973 KiB  
Article
Modeling of Bank Credit Risk Management Using the Cost Risk Model
by Iryna Yanenkova, Yuliia Nehoda, Svetlana Drobyazko, Andrii Zavhorodnii and Lyudmyla Berezovska
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(5), 211; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14050211 - 7 May 2021
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 7813
Abstract
This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of [...] Read more.
This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of credit risk determination. The purpose of the article is to improve and develop methodical support and practical recommendations for reducing the level of risk based on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology and its subsequent combination with methods of fuzzy programming and symbiotic methodical support. The model makes it possible to create decision support subsystems for nonperforming loan management based on the neuro-fuzzy approach. For this paper, economic and mathematical tools (based on the VaR methodology) were used, which made it possible to analyze and forecast the dynamics of overdue payment; assess the quality of the credit portfolio of the bank; determine possible trends in bank development. A scientific and practical approach is taken to assess and forecast the degree of credit problematicity by qualitative criteria using a mathematical model based on a fuzzy technology, which can forecast the increased risk of loan default at an early stage in the process of monitoring the loan portfolio and model forecasting changes in the degree of credit problematicity on change of indicators. A methodology is proposed for the analysis and forecasting of indicators of troubled loan debt, which should be implemented as software and included in the decision support system during the process of monitoring the risk of the bank’s credit portfolio. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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10 pages, 269 KiB  
Article
Methodological Tools for Investment Risk Assessment for the Companies of Real Economy Sector
by Tetiana Zholonko, Olesia Grebinchuk, Maryna Bielikova, Yurii Kulynych and Olena Oviechkina
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(2), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020078 - 16 Feb 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5074
Abstract
Methodological approaches to investing in companies and reducing the negative impact of risks that are formed at the macro and micro levels are considered in the article. The algorithm for expressing investment risks through related risks and conducting an investment risk assessment as [...] Read more.
Methodological approaches to investing in companies and reducing the negative impact of risks that are formed at the macro and micro levels are considered in the article. The algorithm for expressing investment risks through related risks and conducting an investment risk assessment as a group process is defined. It has been determined that the defining features of investment risks are the environment, duration, and scope of the project, risk position, profile, risk appetite, consequences, capacity, and results of the impact on the investment project. An investment risk accounting system is formed, which is represented by a set of organized structural elements that perform functions related to planning and implementation of a set of measures that identify, assess, monitor, and control risks to minimize negative consequences and enhance opportunities. A method of forming a real portfolio of investment projects considering the dynamic risk factor has been developed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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14 pages, 696 KiB  
Article
Modeling Study on Risk Identification in the Process of Anti-Crisis Enterprise Management
by Grygoriy Shamborovskyi, Yuliia Nehoda, Nataliya Demidova, Volodymyr Tarashchenko and Svitlana Breus
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(2), 67; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020067 - 6 Feb 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3617
Abstract
The study provides solutions for the scientific task related to the improvement of theoretical and development of methodological and applied principles, and the identification and evaluation of risks and threats as factors of anti-crisis management of the enterprises. Based on the developed concept [...] Read more.
The study provides solutions for the scientific task related to the improvement of theoretical and development of methodological and applied principles, and the identification and evaluation of risks and threats as factors of anti-crisis management of the enterprises. Based on the developed concept of quantitative risk analysis, we constructed a fuzzy hierarchical model, which gives the possibility to get the estimates: risk factors; specific types of threats in the framework of a process; risk processes, identified in the anti-crisis management; and the integrative risk of anti-crisis management. Furthermore, the proposed model makes it possible to identify the threats that are the risks of the highest (catastrophe) layer. The fuzzy hierarchical model construction process includes the determination of linguistic variables, term-varieties, and universal sets for quantitative evaluation of figures and risks, the establishment of parameters of the membership functions for indicators and risks, the formation of fuzzy knowledge bases, the construction of a fuzzy hierarchical model in the MATLAB environment, the evaluation of adequacy of model based on the learning sample, the correction of a model, and the adoption of a resolution regarding its final variant. The use of the model in the anti-crisis enterprise management will provide the anti-crisis team with the possibility to give early warning of all negative factors, give their quantitative evaluation, and take them into account in the course of making managerial decisions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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16 pages, 293 KiB  
Article
Fine Art Insurance Policies and Risk Perceptions: The Case of Malta
by Luke Pavia, Simon Grima, Inna Romanova and Jonathan V. Spiteri
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(2), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14020066 - 6 Feb 2021
Cited by 23 | Viewed by 3933
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to identify the risks that need to be addressed when holding fine art, determine which are perceived as being the most important, and whether the risk perception is influenced by demographic variables such as age, educational background, [...] Read more.
The aim of this paper is to identify the risks that need to be addressed when holding fine art, determine which are perceived as being the most important, and whether the risk perception is influenced by demographic variables such as age, educational background, and field of occupation. To identify the risks and evaluate the risk perception, we used a purposely designed questionnaire and sent it via various sources of communication systems and applications to individuals knowledgeable on fine arts. Findings revealed that, generally, art deterioration, art fraud, and art theft are the three main highlighted risks, with art deterioration considered in the high-risk range. In terms of risk perception, forgery is the biggest concern. On the other hand, considerations of the investment value of art lessened perceived risk exposure. Furthermore, the study has shown that certain risk perceptions were influenced by the participants’ demographic variables. Both the identified risks and risk perception considerations analyzed within this study provide us with insights as to what needs to be considered when offering fine art insurance, particularly when it comes to which risks that are perceived as being the most pressing by potential policyholders, and how these perceptions vary according to individual demographics variables as noted above. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
15 pages, 1425 KiB  
Article
Risk Management in the System of Financial Stability of the Service Enterprise
by Svetlana Drobyazko, Anna Barwinska-Malajowicz, Boguslaw Slusarczyk, Olga Chubukova and Taliat Bielialov
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(12), 300; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13120300 - 29 Nov 2020
Cited by 22 | Viewed by 6414
Abstract
The article is devoted to the theoretical substantiation and development of methodological approaches and practical recommendations for modeling the assessment of the financial stability of a service sector enterprise. To assess the financial condition of the hotel industry, a visual interpretation of the [...] Read more.
The article is devoted to the theoretical substantiation and development of methodological approaches and practical recommendations for modeling the assessment of the financial stability of a service sector enterprise. To assess the financial condition of the hotel industry, a visual interpretation of the neural network, a model of self-organizing Kohonen map, was used. It is proven that by the method of Kohonen maps for each service provided by the hotel industry, in a certain period of activity, it is possible to establish certain objective limitations of structural characteristics that will prevent the transition to problem clusters or ensure the transition to better ones. The authors propose an economic and mathematical model of the process of assessing financial stability by calculating the integral indicator of financial stability of the service sector. The types of control maps for each of the coefficients that have a significant impact on the assessment of the financial stability of the enterprise in the service sector were identified. Control maps were constructed for each coefficient, which are part of the integrated indicator of financial stability, and their analysis was carried out for the presence of special reasons for the variability of the process of financial stability assessment. The concept of modeling a system for assessing the financial stability of service enterprises is developed in the article, which is based on the collection of financial data, a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the financial condition, a study of the controllability of the process of assessing financial stability, building a model of an integral indicator of financial stability, and its program implementation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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31 pages, 1146 KiB  
Article
Social Risks of International Labour Migration in the Context of Global Challenges
by Aleksandra Kuzior, Anna Liakisheva, Iryna Denysiuk, Halyna Oliinyk and Liudmyla Honchar
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(9), 197; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13090197 - 3 Sep 2020
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 4055
Abstract
The results of the study of migration risks of labor migrants from Ukraine are presented in this article. The purpose of the study is to find out the differences in the perception of obstacles and risks that arise in the process of work [...] Read more.
The results of the study of migration risks of labor migrants from Ukraine are presented in this article. The purpose of the study is to find out the differences in the perception of obstacles and risks that arise in the process of work abroad among experienced and potential labour migrants from Ukraine within the cognitive, behavioural, and emotional components of their intercultural competence. The study has been implemented from the standpoint of a set of analytical tools, including: the concept of the advantages of replacing the “risk/reliability” scheme with the “risk/hazard” scheme; views of risk and chance as interrelated variables that motivate people to try to explore the world and overcome obstacles; the concept of “triple individualization” in a risk society. It has been found that social risks are hidden in the imbalance of intercultural competence of experienced labor migrants and are not realized by potential labor migrants. It has been proven that the greatest social danger for labor migrants from Ukraine is the loss of components of competence and initiative. It has been established that the key points of the comparative analysis of social risks faced by labor migrants from Ukraine open up prospects for improving the methodology for studying social (and socio-cultural, in particular) risks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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15 pages, 417 KiB  
Article
The Dali Model in Risk-Management Practice: The Case of Financial Services Firms
by Rebecca Dalli Gonzi, Simon Grima, Murat Kizilkaya and Jonathan Spiteri
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(4), 169; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040169 - 7 Nov 2019
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4095
Abstract
Originality/value—this model contributed to the vast literature on models of change and risk management within organisations, but was not validated empirically for reliability of the factors, and on financial services providers within small jurisdictions. Therefore, the significance and importance of such a study [...] Read more.
Originality/value—this model contributed to the vast literature on models of change and risk management within organisations, but was not validated empirically for reliability of the factors, and on financial services providers within small jurisdictions. Therefore, the significance and importance of such a study lies firstly on the premise that testing on small countries can be deemed as small laboratories for more complex politics, regulations and policies of larger countries and secondly, the importance of financial services as essential for prosperity in a country’s economy. This model will provide an empirically tested proactive model in a specific environment for managing organisational risks to arrive at their objectives with minimal setbacks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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