Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Editorial

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4 pages, 177 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling

by David Edmund Allen and Elisa Luciano

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(4), 154; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040154 - 21 Sep 2019

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4143

Abstract

Financial risk measurement is a challenging task because both the types of risk and their measurement techniques evolve quickly. This book collects a number of novel contributions for the measurement of financial risk, which addresses partially explored risks or risk takers in a [...] Read more.

Financial risk measurement is a challenging task because both the types of risk and their measurement techniques evolve quickly. This book collects a number of novel contributions for the measurement of financial risk, which addresses partially explored risks or risk takers in a wide variety of empirical contexts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

Research

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29 pages, 675 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Outperformance Probability of Mutual Funds

by Gabriel Frahm and Ferdinand Huber

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(3), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12030108 - 26 Jun 2019

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 6343

Abstract

We propose the outperformance probability as a new performance measure, which can be used in order to compare a strategy with a specified benchmark, and develop the basic statistical properties of its maximum-likelihood estimator in a Brownian-motion framework. The given results are used [...] Read more.

We propose the outperformance probability as a new performance measure, which can be used in order to compare a strategy with a specified benchmark, and develop the basic statistical properties of its maximum-likelihood estimator in a Brownian-motion framework. The given results are used to investigate the question of whether mutual funds are able to beat the S&P 500 or the Russell 1000. Most mutual funds that are taken into consideration are, in fact, able to beat the market. We argue that one should refer to differential returns when comparing a strategy with a given benchmark and not compare both the strategy and the benchmark with the money-market account. This explains why mutual funds often appear to underperform the market, but this conclusion is fallacious. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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28 pages, 1444 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Credit Scoring in SME Asset-Backed Securities: An Italian Case Study

by Andrea Bedin, Monica Billio, Michele Costola and Loriana Pelizzon

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(2), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12020089 - 17 May 2019

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 7134

Abstract

We investigate the default probability, recovery rates and loss distribution of a portfolio of securitised loans granted to Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs). To this end, we use loan level data information provided by the European DataWarehouse platform and employ a logistic [...] Read more.

We investigate the default probability, recovery rates and loss distribution of a portfolio of securitised loans granted to Italian small and medium enterprises (SMEs). To this end, we use loan level data information provided by the European DataWarehouse platform and employ a logistic regression to estimate the company default probability. We include loan-level default probabilities and recovery rates to estimate the loss distribution of the underlying assets. We find that bank securitised loans are less risky, compared to the average bank lending to small and medium enterprises. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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21 pages, 38501 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program

by A. Ford Ramsey and Barry K. Goodwin

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(2), 65; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12020065 - 16 Apr 2019

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3816

Abstract

The federal crop insurance program covered more than 110 billion dollars in total liability in 2018. The program consists of policies across a wide range of crops, plans, and locations. Weather and other latent variables induce dependence among components of the portfolio. Computing [...] Read more.

The federal crop insurance program covered more than 110 billion dollars in total liability in 2018. The program consists of policies across a wide range of crops, plans, and locations. Weather and other latent variables induce dependence among components of the portfolio. Computing value-at-risk (VaR) is important because the Standard Reinsurance Agreement (SRA) allows for a portion of the risk to be transferred to the federal government. Further, the international reinsurance industry is extensively involved in risk sharing arrangements with U.S. crop insurers. VaR is an important measure of the risk of an insurance portfolio. In this context, VaR is typically expressed in terms of probable maximum loss (PML) or as a return period, whereby a loss of certain magnitude is expected to return within a given period of time. Determining bounds on VaR is complicated by the non-homogeneous nature of crop insurance portfolios. We consider several different scenarios for the marginal distributions of losses and provide sharp bounds on VaR using a rearrangement algorithm. Our results are related to alternative measures of portfolio risks based on multivariate distribution functions and alternative copula specifications. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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14 pages, 265 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Herding in Smart-Beta Investment Products

by Eduard Krkoska and Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(1), 47; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010047 - 21 Mar 2019

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 7967

Abstract

We highlight herding of investors as one major risk factor that is typically ignored in statistical approaches to portfolio modelling and risk management. Our survey focuses on smart-beta investing where such methods and investor herding seem particularly relevant but its negative effects have [...] Read more.

We highlight herding of investors as one major risk factor that is typically ignored in statistical approaches to portfolio modelling and risk management. Our survey focuses on smart-beta investing where such methods and investor herding seem particularly relevant but its negative effects have not yet come to the fore. We point out promising and novel approaches of modelling herding risk which merit empirical analysis. This financial economists’ perspective supplements the vast statistical exploration of implementing factor strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

20 pages, 376 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premium in African Countries

by Jane Mpapalika and Christopher Malikane

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(1), 29; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010029 - 9 Feb 2019

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5760

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of the sovereign risk premium in African countries. We employ the dynamic fixed effects model to determine the key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Country-specific effects are fixed and the inclusion of dummy variables using the Bai–Perron multiple [...] Read more.

This paper investigates the determinants of the sovereign risk premium in African countries. We employ the dynamic fixed effects model to determine the key drivers of sovereign bond spreads. Country-specific effects are fixed and the inclusion of dummy variables using the Bai–Perron multiple structural break test is significant at a 5% level. For robustness, the time-series generalized method of moments (GMM) is used where the null hypothesis of the Sargan Test of over-identifying restrictions (OIR) and the Arellano–Bond Test of no autocorrelation are not rejected. This implies that the instruments used are valid and relevant. In addition, there is no autocorrelation in the error terms. Our results show that the exchange rate, Money supply/GDP (M2/GDP) ratio, and trade are insignificant. Furthermore, our findings indicate that public debt/GDP ratio, GDP growth, inflation rate, foreign exchange reserves, commodity price, and market sentiment are significant at a 5% and 10% level. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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23 pages, 6598 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Time–Scale Relationship between Securitized Real Estate and Local Stock Markets: Some Wavelet Evidence

by Kim Hiang Liow, Xiaoxia Zhou, Qiang Li and Yuting Huang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(1), 16; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010016 - 20 Jan 2019

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 4381

Abstract

This study revisits the relationship between securitized real estate and local stock markets by focusing on their time-scale co-movement and contagion dynamics across five developed countries. Since securitized real estate market is an important capital component of the domestic stock market in the [...] Read more.

This study revisits the relationship between securitized real estate and local stock markets by focusing on their time-scale co-movement and contagion dynamics across five developed countries. Since securitized real estate market is an important capital component of the domestic stock market in the respective economies, it is linked to the stock market. Earlier research does not have satisfactory results, because traditional methods average different relationships over various time and frequency domains between securitized real estate and local stock markets. According to our novel wavelet analysis, the relationship between the two asset markets is time–frequency varying. The average long run real estate–stock correlation fails to outweigh the average short run correlation, indicating the real estate markets examined may have become increasingly less sensitive to the domestic stock markets in the long-run in recent years. Moreover, securitized real estate markets appear to lead stock markets in the short run, whereas stock markets tend to lead securitized real estate markets in the long run, and to a lesser degree medium-term. Finally, we find incomplete real estate and local stock market integration among the five developed economies, given only weaker long-run integration beyond crisis periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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11 pages, 338 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Communication Theoretic Interpretation of Modern Portfolio Theory Including Short Sales, Leverage and Transaction Costs

by Giorgio Arici, Marco Dalai, Riccardo Leonardi and Arnaldo Spalvieri

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(1), 4; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010004 - 29 Dec 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4029

Abstract

Modern Portfolio Theory is the ground upon which most works in portfolio optimization context find their foundations. Many studies attempt to extend the Modern Portfolio Theory to include short sale, leverage and transaction costs, features not considered in Markowitz’s seminal work from 1952. [...] Read more.

Modern Portfolio Theory is the ground upon which most works in portfolio optimization context find their foundations. Many studies attempt to extend the Modern Portfolio Theory to include short sale, leverage and transaction costs, features not considered in Markowitz’s seminal work from 1952. The drawback of such theories is that they complicate considerably the simplicity of the original technique. Here, we propose a simple and unified method, which takes inspiration from, and shows connections with the matched filter theory in communications, to evaluate the best portfolio allocation with the possibility of including a leverage factor and short sales. Finally, we extend the presented method to also consider the transaction costs. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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11 pages, 256 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Capital Allocation in Decentralized Businesses

by Stuart M. Turnbull

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2018, 11(4), 82; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11040082 - 26 Nov 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3478

Abstract

This paper described a theory of capital allocation for decentralized businesses, taking into account the costs associated with risk capital. We derive an adjusted present value expression for making investment decisions, that incorporates the time varying profile of risk capital. We discuss the [...] Read more.

This paper described a theory of capital allocation for decentralized businesses, taking into account the costs associated with risk capital. We derive an adjusted present value expression for making investment decisions, that incorporates the time varying profile of risk capital. We discuss the implications for business performance measurement. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

22 pages, 1066 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Risk Assessment of Housing Market Segments: The Lender’s Perspective

by Mats Wilhelmsson and Jianyu Zhao

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2018, 11(4), 69; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11040069 - 26 Oct 2018

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 5419

Abstract

It is well known that risk factors influence how investment portfolios perform from a lender’s perspective; therefore, a thorough risk assessment of the housing market is vital. The aim of this paper was to analyze the risks from housing apartments in different housing [...] Read more.

It is well known that risk factors influence how investment portfolios perform from a lender’s perspective; therefore, a thorough risk assessment of the housing market is vital. The aim of this paper was to analyze the risks from housing apartments in different housing market segments by using the Stockholm, Sweden, owner-occupied apartment market as a case study. By applying quantitative and systems engineering methods, we (1) established the relationship between the overall housing market and several housing market segments, (2) analyzed the results from the quantitative model, and (3) finally provided a feasible portfolio regarding risk control based on the given data. The goal was to determine how different housing segment factors could reveal risk towards the overall market and offer better outlooks for risk management when it comes to housing apartments. The results indicated that the risk could be reduced at the same time as the return increased. From a lender’s perspective, this could reduce the overall risk. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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14 pages, 255 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Insider Trading and Institutional Holdings in Seasoned Equity Offerings

by Ching-Chih Wu and Tung-Hsiao Yang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2018, 11(3), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11030053 - 10 Sep 2018

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4381

Abstract

We investigate three issues about the impact of insider trades and institutional holdings on seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). First, we test how insider trades affect the trading behavior of institutional investors in SEOs. Second, we test whose trading behavior, either insiders or institutional [...] Read more.

We investigate three issues about the impact of insider trades and institutional holdings on seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). First, we test how insider trades affect the trading behavior of institutional investors in SEOs. Second, we test whose trading behavior, either insiders or institutional investors, has greater explanatory power for the performance of SEO firms after issuing new stocks. Third, we analyze the industry-wide spillover effects of insider trades and institutional holdings. Empirically, we find that insiders and institutional investors of SEO firms may utilize similar information in their transactions because insider trades induce similar trading behavior for institutional investors. In addition, insider trades, relative to institutional holdings, have greater explanatory power for SEO firm’s long-term performance. Finally, compared with insider trades, institutional holdings have a more significant spillover effect in the industry of SEO firms. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

16 pages, 603 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Credit Ratings and Liquidity Risk for the Optimization of Debt Maturity Structure

by Faiza Sajjad and Muhammad Zakaria

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2018, 11(2), 24; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm11020024 - 11 May 2018

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 7736

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between credit rating scales and debt maturity choices. A liquidity hypothesis is used to formulate the testable proposition and conceptual framework. Generalized linear model (GLM) and pooled ordinary least square (OLS) are utilized [...] Read more.

The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between credit rating scales and debt maturity choices. A liquidity hypothesis is used to formulate the testable proposition and conceptual framework. Generalized linear model (GLM) and pooled ordinary least square (OLS) are utilized by SAS programming to test the proposed hypothesis. Other different estimation techniques are also used for robust evidence. Results suggest that companies with high and low ratings have a shorter debt maturity. Companies with medium ratings have longer debt maturity structure. Liquidity shows a negative association with longer debt maturity structure. It is evident that at high rating scale with high liquidity, and at lower rating scales with lower liquidity firms have a shorter debt maturity. Mid rated firms with a low probability of refinancing risk show longer debt maturity structure. Considering refinancing risk by Asian companies make the nonlinear relationship between credit ratings and debt maturity choices. Results suggest the importance of credit ratings for the optimization of debt maturity structure of Asian firms, which was totally overlooked by the past studies. The findings of this study are consistent with the liquidity hypothesis. The findings also motivating financial managers and investors to consider credit ratings as a measure of financial constraints. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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Review

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30 pages, 2011 KiB

Open AccessReview

How Many Stocks Are Sufficient for Equity Portfolio Diversification? A Review of the Literature

by Azra Zaimovic, Adna Omanovic and Almira Arnaut-Berilo

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(11), 551; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14110551 - 15 Nov 2021

Cited by 27 | Viewed by 17184

Abstract

Using extensive and comprehensive databases to select a subset of research papers, we aim to critically analyze previous empirical studies to identify certain patterns in determining the optimal number of stocks in well-diversified portfolios in different markets, and to compare how the optimal [...] Read more.

Using extensive and comprehensive databases to select a subset of research papers, we aim to critically analyze previous empirical studies to identify certain patterns in determining the optimal number of stocks in well-diversified portfolios in different markets, and to compare how the optimal number of stocks has changed over different periods and how it has been affected by market turmoil such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main methods used are bibliometric analysis and systematic literature review. Evaluating the number of assets which lead to optimal diversification is not an easy task as it is impacted by a huge number of different factors: the way systematic risk is measured, the investment universe (size, asset classes and features of the asset classes), the investor’s characteristics, the change over time of the asset features, the model adopted to measure diversification (i.e., equally weighted versus optimal allocation), the frequency of the data that is being used, together with the time horizon, conditions in the market that the study refers to, etc. Our paper provides additional support for the fact that (1) a generalized optimal number of stocks that constitute a well-diversified portfolio does not exist for whichever market, period or investor. Recent studies further suggest that (2) the size of a well-diversified portfolio is larger today than in the past, (3) this number is lower in emerging markets compared to developed financial markets, (4) the higher the stock correlations with the market, the lower the number of stocks required for a well-diversified portfolio for individual investors, and (5) machine learning methods could potentially improve the investment decision process. Our results could be helpful to private and institutional investors in constructing and managing their portfolios and provide a framework for future research. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis and Portfolio Modelling)

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