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A special issue of Mathematics (ISSN 2227-7390). This special issue belongs to the section "Probability and Statistics".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2023) | Viewed by 28268

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Adriana Davidescu

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Guest Editor

1. Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 010552 Bucharest, Romania
2. Labour Market Policies Department, National Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, 010643 Bucharest, Romania
Interests: economic analysis; statistics; times series analysis; shadow economy estimations; labor market

Prof. Dr. Friedrich Schneider

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor

Research Institute of Banking and Finance, Johannes Kepler University Linz, 4040 Linz, Austria
Interests: applied economics; public finance; public choice; enviromental economics; shadow economy; tax evasion; organized crime; economics of security

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Economic theory, applied statistics, and modeling are becoming more interdependent, emphasizing the role of the most recent scientific tools in economic analysis. This Special Issue aims to assess how economic analysis has advanced under the influence of statistical modeling with applications to social sciences, also highlighting the relevant contributions statistics modeling analysis can add to economic analysis.

The main objective of this Special Issue is to bring together academic scientists, researchers, and research scholars to present and discuss the most recent innovations, trends, patterns, and practical challenges faced and solutions adopted at the frontier of economic analysis and quantitative statistics modeling with applications in social sciences. High-quality research contributions describing original, empirical, or experimental unpublished work in the following areas are cordially invited for presentation:

Applied Statistics in Social Science;
Data Collection and Applications;
Data Science, Demography;
Econometrics (Macro and Micro Econometrics);
Mathematical Statistics;
Measurement, Network Analysis, Sampling Techniques, and Applications;
Spatial Statistics and Econometrics;
Statistical Modeling and Simulation;
Other Areas of Applied Statistics and Applied Quantitative Analysis.

Prof. Dr. Adriana Davidescu
Prof. Dr. Friedrich Schneider
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Applied statistics in social science
Data collection and applications
Data science and demography
Econometrics (macro and micro econometrics)
Mathematical statistics
Measurement, network analysis and sampling techniques
Spatial statistics and econometrics
Statistical modeling and simulation
Other areas of applied statistics and applied quantitative analysis

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 1220 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Determinants of Tax Ethics in Society: Statistical and Logistic Regression Approach

by Beata Holkova, Eva Malichova, Lukas Falat and Lucia Pancikova

Mathematics 2023, 11(10), 2341; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11102341 - 17 May 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1605

Abstract

The paper focuses on analysing the current tax behaviour of Slovak citizens and their inclination to tax evasion. Inclination to tax evasion is defined in this research based on respondents’ answers to questions focused on their tax morale. The data processed in this research was obtained from a questionnaire survey on a sample of 1067 respondents. Intentional sampling was used to ensure the same structure of respondents. In terms of tax evasion acceptance, we identified three groups of people: honest, dishonest, and unconscious. The research confirmed that 78% of the population is prone to tax evasion, and only 22% have never evaded paying taxes and would not do so knowingly or unconsciously. By applying the statistical hypothesis testing, we also found out that except for sex (women are less prone to tax evasion), inclination to tax evasion also depends on education, age, main source of income and experience. Finally, three types of logistic regression models to predict the inclination of a specific tax behaviour were constructed and evaluated based on the total accuracy metric and validated on the ex-post set. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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21 pages, 360 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Efficiency and Competitiveness of the Equatorial Guinean Financial Sector

by Tito Ondo Ela-Medja and Pilar Alberca

Mathematics 2023, 11(1), 241; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11010241 - 3 Jan 2023

Viewed by 1849

Abstract

The private sector, in order to function properly, needs financing from the national financial sector, and so the efficiency and competitiveness of said financial sector arouse the interest of many researchers, who perform analyses in order to provide authorities and decision makers with relevant information for the decision-making process and the design of their financial policies. This study contributes to this line of research, analyzing both technical and economic efficiency (allocative and cost efficiency) in the financial sector, focusing on banks, using a sample of Equatorial Guinean firms during the period of 2013–2019. Furthermore, the competitiveness of the financial sector is also analyzed. Knowing how efficient and competitive the financial sector is could answer many of the questions that arise when regulating the national business sector. To carry out this analysis, parametric approaches such as stochastic frontiers and non-parametric techniques such as data envelopment analysis are used, as well as different competitiveness indicators (Boone, Panzar–Rosse). During the research, it is found that the banking sector, which represents the financial sector of the country, operates with low levels of technical efficiency: the Cobb–Douglas production function and the trans-logarithmic production function showed similar average efficiency results. Regarding competitiveness, the financial sector operates under monopolistic competition. Therefore, much remains to be achieved to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the financial sector for the development of Equatorial Guinea. It is the responsibility of economic agents to provide a good business climate in the country and guarantee perfect competition in the financial market to promote national development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

19 pages, 1251 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Freedom Matter for Sustainable Economic Development? New Evidence from Spatial Econometric Analysis

by Hosein Mohammadi, Samira Shayanmehr and Juan D. Borrero

Mathematics 2023, 11(1), 145; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11010145 - 28 Dec 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2389

Abstract

Achieving sustainable economic development is always considered one of the main economic goals of countries. Therefore, researchers are interested in presenting new econometric models for more accurate identification of factors affecting economic growth. The current study evaluates the impact of various aspects of freedom (economic freedom, press freedom, civil freedom, and political rights) and an aggregated freedom index on economic growth in European countries from 2000 to 2019 using spatial panel econometric techniques. In addition, the effects of variables such as FDI, financial development (FD), human capital (HC), and capital stock on economic growth are examined. The findings of this research confirm the existence of spatial autocorrelation in economic growth. The results reveal that civil liberties, economic and press freedom, and aggregated freedom boost economic growth, whereas political rights have no significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the econometric model results indicate that FDI, FD, HC, and capital stock are positively and significantly associated with economic growth. This research is expected to provide policymakers with a thorough understanding of how to implement the best policies in European countries to achieve sustainable economic development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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22 pages, 656 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Infrastructure and EU Regional Convergence: What Policy Implications Does Non-Linearity Bring?

by Alma Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, Mindaugas Butkus, Renata Macaitienė and Vida Davidavičienė

Mathematics 2023, 11(1), 1; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11010001 - 20 Dec 2022

Viewed by 1680

Abstract

One of the priority areas of the EU is infrastructure development. Over 2021–2027, it is planned to allocate more than 116 billion EUR of support from EU structural funds to transport and ICT infrastructure. For investments to promote the growth of lagging regions and reduce regional disparities, investments must be efficiently allocated. Considering limitations of previous studies, this study aims to provide recommendations for policymakers regarding infrastructure investment allocation after assessing the non-linear relationships between transport and ICT infrastructure development and convergence of EU MS NUTS2 regions. The general specification for estimations is based on the neoclassical conditional beta-convergence model. Additionally, a non-linear specification with interactions is developed to estimate the effect of infrastructure development on convergence. We used Generalized Methods of Movement estimator for the robustness check to reduce possible endogeneity bias. Estimations indicated that a non-linear relationship between infrastructure development and convergence is present. We have found strong evidence of the diminishing marginal effect of infrastructure development on convergence and have identified a tipping point after which infrastructure development slows down convergence, i.e., convergence is still present but at a slower rate. The study results made it possible to present several essential recommendations to policymakers that would increase the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure. Investments should be distributed according to smaller regional units, i.e., NUTS 2 level. The optimal level of infrastructure development that ensures convergence of regions for each type of infrastructure has to be established to ensure that the investments are not too intense and to generate the maximum potential outcomes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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32 pages, 2478 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Could Religiosity and Religion Influence the Tax Morale of Individuals? An Empirical Analysis Based on Variable Selection Methods

by Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu, Eduard Mihai Manta, Adina Teodora Stoica-Ungureanu and Magdalena Anton (Musat)

Mathematics 2022, 10(23), 4497; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10234497 - 29 Nov 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2805

Abstract

When people who adhere to tax morality act in a situation where there is no sense of risk, no acceptance of the government, or no environment conducive to tax compliance, it is easier to see how they are motivated to do so. Tax morality is also known as the ethics of compliance. It is the independent cause that motivates a positive tax behaviour. Employees’ religious beliefs may impact their ideas and actions in organizational life, just as individuals’ attitudes, values, emotions, abilities, and behaviours influence their thoughts and actions at work. Religion can positively influence a worker’s loyalty, morale, and communication. In this context, the research seeks to determine whether religiosity and religion may have an effect on tax morale, examining whether an individual’s religiosity reduces tax evasion and increases the degree of tax morale. Using machine learning variable selection techniques appropriate for categorical variables, we have used the dataset of the Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2020 (European Value Survey/World Value Survey), allowing for comparisons of tax morality in more than 79 nations globally (chi-squared and mutual information). The empirical findings showed that the most important aspects of religiosity, such as religious denomination, belief in God, and the significance of God, along with the degree of trust placed in other religions and churches, have a considerable positive impact on the level of tax morale. Another significant conclusion relates to how much people feel the government is responsible, how much they care about their nation, and how satisfied they are with the political system—findings that have been shown to boost employee morale. The following are a person’s primary traits that indicate their financial morale: an adult above the age of 25, a full-time worker or retired person, married, and living alone. Therefore, employees that are morally upright, trustworthy, diligent, and committed to the workplace values of justice and decency raise morale generally and improve an organisation’s success. A business may enhance its reputation and help to secure its long-term success by establishing behavioural policies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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22 pages, 760 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Efficiency and Productivity of Commercial Banks in Turkey Pre- and during COVID-19 with an Integrated MCDM Approach

by Ulaş Ünlü, Neşe Yalçın and Nuri Avşarlıgil

Mathematics 2022, 10(13), 2300; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10132300 - 1 Jul 2022

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3424

Abstract

Above all, this study is original in that it reveals the efficiency and productivity of banks exposed to the current pandemic situation. The aim of this study is to evaluate bank efficiency and productivity of commercial banks operating in Turkey pre- and during COVID-19 by using a novel integrated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach. We divided the banks into three groups in order to evaluate the differences in terms of their efficiency and productivity: state banks, foreign banks and private domestic banks. This paper fills a gap in the literature by using a novel integrated MCDM approach including SWARA II as a subjective weighting method, MEREC as an objective weighting method, and MARCOS as a ranking method to evaluate bank efficiency and productivity. The results reveal that banks with foreign investors achieved higher productivity than other bank groups and the productivity of state banks decreased especially during the COVID-19 period. It should also be noted that state banks are restricted to certain political objectives. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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17 pages, 1411 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Enterprise Profitability and Financial Evaluation Model Based on Statistical Modeling: Taking Tencent Music as an Example

by Junke Chen, Yifan Liu and Qigang Zhu

Mathematics 2022, 10(12), 2107; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10122107 - 17 Jun 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4288

Abstract

In today’s diversified development model, the combination of modeling and business decision development is particularly important. The advanced theoretical business model established by modeling enables more efficient and accurate financial analysis. In the original enterprise profit evaluation model, the DuPont analysis method cannot take into account the development capability of the enterprise very well. This article takes Tencent Music as an example, and improves it on the basis of DuPont analysis. The Enterprise Capital Profit Model was proposed. At the same time, the LASSO regression based on cluster analysis is used to screen, analyze, and diagnose the financial data of Tencent Music in recent years, which verifies the validity and feasibility of the model. This paper uses the report data combined with statistical modeling to optimize the traditional financial evaluation method of enterprises, better find problems, and provide strategies for the further development of enterprises. Likewise, the method can be extended to other businesses to help them analyze their financial situation and provide a reference for future development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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12 pages, 397 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Return on Advertising Spend Prediction with Task Decomposition-Based LSTM Model

by Hyeonseok Moon, Taemin Lee, Jaehyung Seo, Chanjun Park, Sugyeong Eo, Imatitikua D. Aiyanyo, Jeongbae Park, Aram So, Kyoungwha Ok and Kinam Park

Mathematics 2022, 10(10), 1637; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10101637 - 11 May 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3682

Abstract

Return on advertising spend (ROAS) refers to the ratio of revenue generated by advertising projects to its expense. It is used to assess the effectiveness of advertising marketing. Several simulation-based controlled experiments, such as geo experiments, have been proposed recently. This refers to calculating ROAS by dividing a geographic region into a control group and a treatment group and comparing the ROAS generated in each group. However, the data collected through these experiments can only be used to analyze previously constructed data, making it difficult to use in an inductive process that predicts future profits or costs. Furthermore, to obtain ROAS for each advertising group, data must be collected under a new experimental setting each time, suggesting that there is a limitation in using previously collected data. Considering these, we present a method for predicting ROAS that does not require controlled experiments in data acquisition and validates its effectiveness through comparative experiments. Specifically, we propose a task deposition method that divides the end-to-end prediction task into the two-stage process: occurrence prediction and occurred ROAS regression. Through comparative experiments, we reveal that these approaches can effectively deal with the advertising data, in which the label is mainly set to zero-label. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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15 pages, 1072 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Panel Threshold Model to Capture the Nonlinear Nexus between Public Policy and Entrepreneurial Activities in EU Countries

by Oana-Ramona Lobonț, Ana-Cristina Nicolescu, Florin Costea, Zheng-Zheng Li, Alexandra-Mădălina Țăran and Adriana Davidescu

Mathematics 2022, 10(8), 1265; https://doi.org/10.3390/math10081265 - 11 Apr 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2242

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between public policy and entrepreneurial activity in EU countries by using the panel threshold model. The paper was fundamental based on and confirmed the psychological threshold theory; namely, the results showed a single threshold effect between government effectiveness and entrepreneurial activity. Government public policy boosts entrepreneurial activity at the first segment, but the promotion effect becomes relatively slow after the threshold value. When separating the EU countries into efficiency-driven and innovation-driven countries, the threshold effect only existed in innovation-driven countries. After the threshold value, governance effectiveness hindered entrepreneurial activity, because saturation and excessive regulations impeded business in these countries. In essence, it is not a matter of working harder or winding down but a matter of promoting a moderate public policy, which is indeed necessary for the government to encourage entrepreneurial activity. Ultimately, keeping economic growth stable is essential for a favorable entrepreneurial environment. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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11 pages, 401 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis Using TOPSIS and WSA Method for Quality of Life: The Case of Slovakia Regions

by Jana Coronicova Hurajova and Zuzana Hajduova

Mathematics 2021, 9(19), 2440; https://doi.org/10.3390/math9192440 - 1 Oct 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2190

Abstract

Quality of life can be expressed as a highly subjective measure of happiness, which is an important part of many financial and non-financial decisions. The issue of quality of life, namely its quantification, is a current topic, evidenced by a number of literary sources in both foreign and domestic literature. The paper deals with this issue in the conditions of the Slovak Republic and studies the quality of life for each region of Slovakia with respect to the given indicators. In this paper, we deal with the use of the methods of multi-criteria analysis in evaluating the quality of life in Slovakia. The aim of this paper is to highlight that it is important to monitor the level of quality of life at the regional level and that one of the indicators influencing the quality of life in the region may be its location in relation to neighboring countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Advances in Economic Analysis and Statistics Modeling with Applications to Social Sciences)

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