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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Hazards and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (10 July 2023) | Viewed by 27088

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Special Issue Editors

Dr. Golam Kabir

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Guest Editor

Industrial Systems Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
Interests: system risk, reliability, resilience assessment; interdependent network resilience analytics; multi-criteria decision analysis under risk and uncertainty; infrastructure management
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Dr. Muntasir Billah

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Guest Editor

Department of Civil Engineering, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON P7B 7E1, Canada
Interests: bridge engineering; smart structures; resilient infrastructure; structural dynamics; finite element modeling
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Dr. Subhrajit Dutta

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Guest Editor

Department of Civil Engineering, NIT Silchar, Cachar, Assam, India
Interests: reliability and risk analysis; optimization under uncertainty; uncertainty quantification; infrastructure and community resilience; decision theory; numerical methods; model order reduction; machine/deep learning; data-driven modeling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Critical infrastructure systems (e.g., water supply, transportation systems, security services) or industrial systems (e.g., oil and oil products production, food production) are fundamental for the economic development and growth of any nation. However, these systems can face numerous disruptions due to their age, condition, working environment, natural disasters, human-made accidents, and interdependence with other systems. These hazards cause not only physical damage, but also have cascading social, environmental, and economic impacts that impair community resiliency and sustainability. Therefore, it is necessary to assess and plan sustainable and resilient systems through preparedness, response, and recovery. The purpose of this Special Issue is to promote novel methodologies for system risk, reliability, and resilience assessment of critical infrastructure systems. This Special Issue aims to encourage studies exploring theoretical, methodological, and practical studies related to the system risk, reliability, and resilience assessment.

Dr. Golam Kabir
Dr. Muntasir Billah
Dr. Subhrajit Dutta
Guest Editors

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Keywords

risk assessment and management
vulnerability and consequence assessment
sustainability assessment and resilience analysis
resilience engineering
risk-informed decision-making
modelling and simulation platforms
data-driven methods in risk and resilience analysis
disaster risk and resilience for built infrastructure
system and community level resilience assessment

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Published Papers (12 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 3444 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Cyber-Resilience Evaluation Methods Focusing on Response Time to Cyber Infringement

by Se-Ho Choi, Jaepil Youn, Kookjin Kim, Seongkee Lee, Oh-Jin Kwon and Dongkyoo Shin

Sustainability 2023, 15(18), 13404; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813404 - 7 Sep 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1847

Abstract

Though multilevel, in-depth information protection systems are employed to defend against unknown cyber threats, vulnerabilities in these systems are frequently exploited by cyberattacks. As a result, it becomes challenging to comprehensively counter these attacks within a constrained time frame. When a cyberattack is detected, immediate measures are necessary to prevent widespread damage and maintain the system’s regular functioning. Possessing sustainable cyber-resilience capabilities, which can promptly restore the system to its pre-attack state, is crucial. In this paper, a cyber-defense activity optimization procedure is introduced, drawing on the failure recovery time of the information system, aiming to enhance both the response and recovery phases of cyber resilience. Through training, the response time for various types of cyberattack was determined. Notably, a decrease in response time by 17.8% compared to the baseline was observed. By optimizing response times and integrating them with sustainable cyber-resilience assessment activities, a robust framework is presented for evaluating an organization’s overall cyber-defense stance. Research on the cyber combat capability index, dissecting the response time for each distinct cyber-defense activity, is planned for future endeavors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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14 pages, 1724 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Research on an Evaluation Model of Urban Seismic Resilience Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Chengdu, China

by Xunchang Li, Yifan Liu, Wenyong Zhang and Yaqian Wang

Sustainability 2023, 15(13), 10112; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310112 - 26 Jun 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1484

Abstract

In response to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in Chengdu, which poses a great threat to the economy, social development, production, and people’s lives, in this study, we construct an index evaluation system and a system dynamics model for urban seismic resilience based on an analysis of the interaction between earthquake disasters and the urban system. Four types of schemes, namely, the current continuity type, economic development type, government intervention type, and resilience construction type, were designed, and the dynamic evaluation and simulation prediction of Chengdu’s seismic resilience capacity under each scheme were conducted. The research results show that, compared with the other three schemes, the resilience construction type has better universality and expansibility in terms of improving Chengdu’s seismic resilience. Therefore, it is necessary to maintain a certain level of economic development, to attach importance to the construction of monitoring and warning systems, and to strive to improve emergency rescue capabilities and disaster awareness education. The model and evaluation indicators have strong applicability, and the research results can provide a theoretical reference for the evaluation of seismic resilience in Chengdu. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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16 pages, 2285 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Waste Generation Modeling Using System Dynamics with Seasonal and Educational Considerations

by Sanaalsadat Eslami, Golam Kabir and Kelvin Tsun Wai Ng

Sustainability 2023, 15(13), 9995; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15139995 - 24 Jun 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1840

Abstract

Effective waste management is critical to environmental sustainability and public health. Various dynamics, such as seasonal changes and waste education programs, influence solid waste generation, increasing the complexity of prediction. This is important, as the proper prediction of waste quantity is necessary to develop a sustainable waste management system. In this study, municipal solid waste (MSW) management is examined in Regina, the capital city of Saskatchewan, Canada. A system dynamics (SD) model is developed to evaluate garbage and recyclable waste generation behaviours in Regina across four seasons. Three years of Regina landfill waste generation records (2016–2018) are considered to analyze and predict seasonal waste-generation trends. The effect of various factors, such as gross domestic product (GDP), population, and education attainment on the amount of waste generation is considered in the SD model. The SD model is designed as a stock-flow diagram to illustrate the relationships between variables and predict the next three years of waste trends. This finding highlights the importance of waste education and awareness program and seasonal effects on the accuracy of SD waste modeling. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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15 pages, 6508 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reliability and Robustness Assessment of Highway Networks under Multi-Hazard Scenarios: A Case Study in Xinjiang, China

by Weihua Zhu, Shoudong Wang, Shengli Liu, Xueying Gao, Pengchong Zhang and Lixiao Zhang

Sustainability 2023, 15(6), 5379; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065379 - 17 Mar 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1675

Abstract

The robustness and reliability capacities of highways are particularly critical when dealing with emergencies in order to ensure user safety following disaster events. Assessing the robustness and reliability of highways under multi-hazard scenarios and evaluating the impact of planning on them have become urgent topics. In this study, we use the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps’ (XPCC) existing and planned arterial highway networks in China for research. Based on the multi-hazard information, we established and employed four attack strategies on the existing and planned arterial highway networks. The results show that the exposure susceptibility coefficient (ESC) strategy has a higher destruction capability than the random attack strategy, which is close to the greedy algorithm coefficient (GAC) strategy. In addition, attacks have negligible impacts on connectivity reliability and robustness but significantly affect travel time reliability and robustness. When the number of removed edges reaches 20 using the ESC strategy, the travel time reliability drops to 0.4 for the existing highway network. In addition, the planned highway network significantly improves the reliability and robustness with regard to multi-hazard scenarios, especially for travel time reliability. Travel time reliability is improved by 10% under the historical damage records coefficient (HDRC) and ESC attacks. Our study shows that planning promotes the construction of a resilient transportation system in multi-hazard scenarios, providing valuable information for resilient transportation construction. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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23 pages, 1935 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Product-Service Systems Based on Variation Mode and Effect Analysis

by Hanfei Wang, Yuya Mitake, Yusuke Tsutsui, Salman Alfarisi and Yoshiki Shimomura

Sustainability 2023, 15(6), 5092; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065092 - 13 Mar 2023

Viewed by 1866

Abstract

In recent decades, the product-service system (PSS) has been spotlighted due to its innovation and sustainability. As a novel business system, PSS provides additional value for products through the addition of service, which effectively upgrades the traditional manufacturing industry. For realizing a successful PSS, a robust and reliable operation stage is extremely important for users to stay satisfied and loyal. Thus, designers need to ensure that this system is not sensitive to any influential perturbation. Namely, they must achieve the desensitization of PSS to vulnerability. However, the current PSS design field still does not provide an effective method to assess the vulnerability in the whole life stage of PSS. This would lead to less time for the PSS provider to respond to various events. Furthermore, the tremendous loss could be caused due to the immaturity of the system. Therefore, this research has developed a vulnerability assessment framework based on variation mode and effect analysis (VMEA) for PSS. This developed framework has the ability to identify the potential noise factors and assess their severity based on multiple steps of analysis. This method has proved its effectiveness through an application example, and it is also expected to enable PSS researchers to design a robust PSS. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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21 pages, 1826 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sustainability Assessment of Energy Storage Technologies Based on Commercialization Viability: MCDM Model

by Xiaoyang Shu, Raman Kumar, Rajeev Kumar Saha, Nikhil Dev, Željko Stević, Shubham Sharma and Mohammad Rafighi

Sustainability 2023, 15(6), 4707; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064707 - 7 Mar 2023

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 2488

Abstract

Advances in developed and developing countries are more attributable to growth in industrial activities that directly impact increasing energy demand. Energy availability has been inconsistent globally, necessitating energy storage (ES) for use as per requirement. Various energy storage technologies (ESTs) are available in mechanical, electrochemical, electrical, chemical, and thermal forms to fulfil the energy demand of a user as and when required. The factors responsible for making a commercially viable energy storage product are further being researched for an eco-friendly and optimal solution to store energy for a longer duration. Researchers are employing different strategies to evaluate the energy efficiency of storage technologies. This paper uses the VIKOR technique to analyze ESTs while assigning objective weights with the entropy weights method based on identified energy performance indicators and ranking them according to their commercialization viability. The method helps a consumer choose better ESTs as per their requirement while manufacturers compete with each other to enhance the commercial value of their energy storage products. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to understand the uncertainties, pros, and cons with the limitations and scope of using the decision model and thus taking an informed decision. The analysis of different energy storage technologies has indicated Hydrogen Fuel Cells (HFC) to be impressive and promising for the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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19 pages, 5375 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Numerical-Hierarchical Framework for Predicting Volume Changes in Expansive Soils under Variable Surface and Weather Conditions

by Qihang Huang and Shahid Azam

Sustainability 2023, 15(5), 4200; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15054200 - 26 Feb 2023

Viewed by 1414

Abstract

This research developed a numerical-hierarchical framework that captured surface conditions and climate parameters. Volume changes under distinct scenarios of surface boundary, antecedent moisture, and meteorological parameters were predicted using a coupled seepage-deformation model. Risk was hierarchically based on expert judgment for surface scenarios (Stage-I indices) and normal distribution for antecedent moisture and atmospheric parameters scenarios (Stage-II indices). Results indicated seasonal volumetric changes with minor variations of −5 mm from January to April, a steady settlement of −17 mm by June, and a gradual heave of +8 mm by December. All Stage-I indices showed similar trends such that the fluctuations were highest for vegetation, followed by slope, then by cover, and lowest for loading. Volume changes gradually reduced with depth and diminished at 3.1 m. Similar seasonal and profile trends were generally found for most Stage-II indices. Nonetheless, different trends under wet and dry conditions were observed for initial water content, precipitation, and air temperature. For the datum scenario, risk was non-existent till February, increased to 2.3 by June, diminished by October, and rose back to 1.0 by December. Similar values of cyclic variations in risk were found in most urban facilities. Volume changes were found to be two times higher in parks, insignificant for roads, half for five story buildings, and one-fourth for pipes under roads. Among the Stage-II indices, risk for the initial water content inhibited seasonal variations whereas that for precipitation was about half with a wider distribution; all the other indices showed about one-third the values. Under a higher occurrence probability of 0.129, a magnified risk was observed for all the indices such that the most critical were the initial water content and precipitation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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20 pages, 16158 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Creating a Risk Assessment Plan for Rainfall Impacts on Heritage Buildings Façades via Quantitative Methods

by Yasmine Sabry Hegazi and Mohanad Fouda

Sustainability 2023, 15(3), 1817; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15031817 - 18 Jan 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1728

Abstract

The unstable climate causes many related risks, including heavy rainfall. In the past, Egypt experienced rainfall over time. Although Egypt is still classified as a low-precipitation country, it can experience extreme rainfall events, resulting in flash floods. Many fragile materials related to heritage building façades may be affected by the change in rainfall rates without any risk assessment plan. This research aims to confront the hazards of raindrop strikes, as the need for making a risk management plan has arisen in order to preserve heritage buildings from heavy rainfall. The research methodology uses the ABC risk assessment quantitative method in addition to experts’ multi-round assessments and tornado diagrams to analyze the magnitude of risks in order to create a risk assessment plan for a group of heritage buildings in Historic Cairo as a pilot study that can be generalized for similar cases. The final output is framed into a cause-and-effect model for rainfall risk problem solving, generated by rainfall risk causes and effects on the heritage building facades. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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24 pages, 567 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reverse Logistics Network Design under Disruption Risk for Third-Party Logistics Providers

by Rui Li and Xin Chen

Sustainability 2022, 14(22), 14936; https://doi.org/10.3390/su142214936 - 11 Nov 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2540

Abstract

Reverse logistics is attracting attention due to the increasing concerns over environmental issues and the important economic impacts. The design of a reverse logistics network is a major strategic problem in the field of reverse logistics. As cost pressures in product returns continue to mount, a growing number of manufacturers have begun to outsource reverse logistics operations to third-party logistics (3PL) providers. On the other hand, considering disruption risks caused by natural or man-made factors in the reverse logistics network design is inevitable. This paper studies third-party reverse logistics network designs under uncertain disruptions. The problem is formulated as a risk-averse two-stage stochastic programming model with a mean risk objective. Two types of risk measures, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR), were examined, respectively. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out. The validity of the mean risk criteria is proved by comparison with risk-neutral approach. Moreover, the performance of the proposed model was examined by stochastic measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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28 pages, 4606 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Towards a Systematic Description of Fault Tree Analysis Studies Using Informetric Mapping

by Kai Pan, Hui Liu, Xiaoqing Gou, Rui Huang, Dong Ye, Haining Wang, Adam Glowacz and Jie Kong

Sustainability 2022, 14(18), 11430; https://doi.org/10.3390/su141811430 - 12 Sep 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3830

Abstract

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is one of the important analysis methods of safety system engineering commonly utilized in various industries to evaluate and improve the reliability and safety of complex systems. To grasp the current situation and development trend of FTA research and to further point out FTA’s future development directions, 1469 FTA-related articles from the literature were retrieved from the SCIE and SSCI databases. Informetric methods, including co-authorship analysis, co-citation analysis and co-occurrence analysis, were adopted for analyzing the cooperation relationship, research knowledge base, research hotspots and frontier in the FTA research field. The results show that China has the highest number of publications, and the Loughborough University of England has the highest number of publications of relevant institutions. Dynamic fault tree analysis, fuzzy fault tree analysis and FTA based on binary decision diagrams are recognized as the knowledge bases in FTA studies. “Reliability Engineering and System Safety”, “Safety Science” and “Fuzzy Sets and Systems” are the core journals in this field. Fuzzy fault tree analysis, dynamic fault tree analysis based on Bayesian networks and FTA combined with management factors may be both the main research hotspots and the frontiers. Then, by deriving the above results, this study can help scholars better master the current research status and frontiers of FTA to improve system reliability and safety. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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18 pages, 981 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Interaction between Bridge Infrastructure Resilience Factors against Seismic Hazard

by Ángel Francisco Galaviz Román, Md Saiful Arif Khan, Golam Kabir, Muntasir Billah and Subhrajit Dutta

Sustainability 2022, 14(16), 10277; https://doi.org/10.3390/su141610277 - 18 Aug 2022

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2087

Abstract

Infrastructure systems, such as bridges, are perpetually vulnerable to natural hazards such as seismic events, flooding, and landslides. This study aims to determine the relevant parameters required to increase the seismic resilience of bridge infrastructure based on the decisions of experts and prior research. To this end, the crisp DEMATEL (decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory) and rough DEMATEL methods are employed. Rough DEMATEL is a supplement to crisp DEMATEL that incorporates rough theory to handle ambiguity. The efficacies of the rough and crisp DEMATEL methods are then compared between the two approaches. This study found the most crucial seismic-resilience variables for bridges. The outcomes of this study reveal the significant order and cause-and-effect relationships. This research can assist transportation engineers and executive agencies in enhancing the seismic resilience of roadway bridges and bridge networks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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21 pages, 1678 KiB

Open AccessArticle

An Application of Multiple-Criteria Decision Analysis for Risk Prioritization and Management: A Case Study of the Fisheries Sector in Pakistan

by Muhammad Mohsin, Yin Hengbin, Zhang Luyao, Li Rui, Qian Chong and Ana Mehak

Sustainability 2022, 14(14), 8831; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148831 - 19 Jul 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2910

Abstract

In Pakistan, the fisheries sector is capable of making a significant contribution to the national economy. However, the proper and sustainable development of this sector is essential to its success, and we need to be aware of all the risks that it faces. At present, there is a dearth of comprehensive research that details, compares, and proposes applied measures to mitigate the risks facing the fisheries sector. Thus, this study is the first novel attempt to fill this gap. The data were collected through a survey and analyzed by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The study postulates that Sindh fisheries are affected by five main risk factors, namely technical, market, ecological, natural, and management. These risk factors are arranged from least to most significant. With regard to the performances of the main risk factors, management risk was ranked as the greatest risk, followed by ecological risk, natural risk, and technical risk. The findings of this study provide a road map for managerial decisions. Furthermore, this study also presents some potential limitations related to the scale of the data and analysis methods. Future studies may therefore use data collected on a large scale and alternative quantitative approaches. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue System Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Assessment for Sustainability)

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