Decision Making in Uncertain Environments via Advanced Analytical Methods

A special issue of Systems (ISSN 2079-8954). This special issue belongs to the section "Systems Practice in Social Science".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 15 December 2024 | Viewed by 2250

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department of Tourism Economics and Management, Business School, University of the Aegean, 8 Michalon Str., 82132 Chios, Greece
Interests: engineering economics; project management; financial engineering; fuzzy logic; quantitative methods; project appraisal; crisis management; performance management
School of Economics and Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China
Interests: group decision making; linguistic decision making; fuzzy set; multi-criteria decision making
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Decision making is a process of choosing a particular direction or course that involves a combination of directions among a finite or non-finite set of alternatives. Decision making is not only applicable in many fields, but it is also a necessary condition to achieve reliable results in most applied sciences (finance/economics, engineering, management, health sciences, environmental sciences, etc.). Modern and efficient tools in the decision-making process are advanced analytical methods, especially in environments with inherent uncertainty. In these constantly evolving environments, there are multiple determinants of decisions, and their weights are vague and changing. For this reason, deploying advanced analytical methods is considered to be effective and efficient in the scientific field of decision analysis. These methods may include (indicatively) the following:

  • Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic
    • Fuzzy arithmetic;
    • Fuzzy statistics;
    • Fuzzy probabilities;
    • Fuzzy multi-criteria analysis;
    • Fuzzy regression.
  • Scenario Analysis
    • Exploratory scenario analysis;
    • Predictive scenario analysis (time series, regression analysis, etc.);
    • Qualitative scenario analysis (delphi method, narrative scenarios, etc.);
    • Quantitative scenario analysis (probabilistic scenarios, stress testing, etc.).
  • Decision Analysis
    • Decision trees;
    • Utility theory.
  • Statistical Inference
    • Hypothesis testing;
    • Bayesian inference;
  • Mixed methods.

During the decision-making process, these methods can be used individually or in combination depending on the nature, complexity, and duration of the problem under examination and its effects on its immediate environment. In this Special Issue, authors can publish articles in the following subjects (indicatively):

  • Finance and Investments;
  • Business Administration;
  • Performance Management;
  • Revenue Management;
  • Managerial Accounting;
  • Engineering Risk Analysis;
  • Project Management;
  • Environmental Planning;
  • Blue Economy;
  • Maritime Transport Systems;
  • Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Achievement;
  • Crisis/Disaster Management;
  • Innovation and Technology Management;
  • Public Policy and Administration;
  • Education and Academia;
  • Health Sciences.

Dr. Konstantinos A. Chrysafis
Dr. Zhen Zhang
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • decision making
  • fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic
  • scenario analysis
  • decision analysis
  • statistical inference
  • mixed methods

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

29 pages, 1390 KiB  
Article
An Integrated Fuzzy Delphi and Fuzzy AHP Model for Evaluating Factors Affecting Human Errors in Manual Assembly Processes
by Fahad M. Alqahtani and Mohammed A. Noman
Systems 2024, 12(11), 479; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12110479 - 11 Nov 2024
Viewed by 712
Abstract
Human errors (HEs) are prevalent issues in manual assembly, leading to product defects and increased costs. Understanding and knowing the factors influencing human errors in manual assembly processes is essential for improving product quality and efficiency. This study aims to determine and rank [...] Read more.
Human errors (HEs) are prevalent issues in manual assembly, leading to product defects and increased costs. Understanding and knowing the factors influencing human errors in manual assembly processes is essential for improving product quality and efficiency. This study aims to determine and rank factors influencing HEs in manual assembly processes based on expert judgments. To achieve this objective, an integrated model was developed using two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques—specifically, the fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Firstly, two rounds of the FDM were conducted to identify and categorize the primary factors contributing to HEs in manual assembly. Expert consensus with at least 75% agreement determined that 27 factors with influence scores of 0.7 or higher significantly impact HEs in these processes. After that, the priorities of the 27 influencing factors in assembly HEs were determined using a third round of the FAHP method. Data analysis was performed using SPSS 22.0 to evaluate the reliability and normality of the survey responses. This study has divided the affecting factors on assembly HEs into two levels: level 1, called main factors, and level 2, called sub-factors. Based on the final measured weights for level 1, the proposed model estimation results revealed that the most influential factors on HEs in a manual assembly are the individual factor, followed by the tool factor and the task factor. For level 2, the model results showed a lack of experience, poor instructions and procedures, and misunderstanding as the most critical factors influencing manual assembly errors. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine how changes in model inputs or parameters affect final decisions to ensure reliable and practical results. The findings of this study provide valuable insights to help organizations develop effective strategies for reducing worker errors in manual assembly. Identifying the key and root factors contributing to assembly errors, this research offers a solid foundation for enhancing the overall quality of final products. Full article
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23 pages, 680 KiB  
Article
Risk Assessment of Employing Digital Robots in Process Automation
by Onur Dogan, Ozlem Arslan, Esra Cengiz Tirpan and Selcuk Cebi
Systems 2024, 12(10), 428; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12100428 - 12 Oct 2024
Viewed by 687
Abstract
Using digital technologies is essential to gain a competitive advantage in the global market by adapting to new business models. While digital technologies make business processes efficient, they enable companies to make faster and more accurate decisions by automating daily and routine process [...] Read more.
Using digital technologies is essential to gain a competitive advantage in the global market by adapting to new business models. While digital technologies make business processes efficient, they enable companies to make faster and more accurate decisions by automating daily and routine process tasks. Robotic process automation (RPA) automates routine and repetitive business processes, allowing many jobs performed by humans to be performed faster. This way, advantages such as reduced error rates, reduced costs, increased production speed, and labor productivity are provided. For the successful implementation of RPA, potential risks need to be considered. In this study, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) based on decomposed fuzzy sets (DFSs), a new extension of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, has been used to evaluate subjectiveness in expert judgments. Differing from the other extensions of fuzzy set theory, the advantage of DFSs is to simultaneously consider decision-makers’ optimistic and pessimistic answers. Thus, the answer given by the decision-maker to the positive and negative questions on the same subject defines the indeterminacy of the decision-maker, and the method takes this indeterminacy into account in the evaluation. This study assesses and evaluates the potential risks of six digital robots in process automation. Thirteen risks were individually assessed for each automated process. This study found “Sustainability challenge” critical in three processes, “Absence of governance management” in two, and “Security“ in one. Variability in risk importance arose from process vulnerabilities. Full article
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