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Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions

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A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 July 2021) | Viewed by 38071

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Christophe Kinnard

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Department of Environmental Sciences, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivieres, QC, Canada
Interests: glaciology; climate change; surface hydrology; hydroclimate variability; snow hydrology; streamflow variability; floods
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Prof. Dr. Alain N. Rousseau

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Guest Editor

Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS-ETE), 490 de la Couronne, Québec, QC, G1K 9A9, Canada
Interests: hydrological modelling; sensitivity and uncertainty analysis; cold region hydrology; wetlands hydrological services; thermal energy balance; hydroinformatics; climate change assessment; agricultural water management

Prof. Stephen Dery

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Guest Editor

Environmental Science and Engineering Program, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, British Columbia, Canada
Interests: climate change impacts on snow and water resources; streamflow variability and trends; hydrometeorological monitoring and modelling

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Ongoing and future climate conditions have affected and will profoundly modify the hydrology of cold regions. Indeed, increasing air temperature and ensuing changes in the albedo of the cryosphere have already dramatically altered the water and environmental states of cold regions. Changes in seasonal snow dynamics, glacier mass-balance, river ice formation and decay, and soil freezing have induced and could further modify runoff patterns and seasonal shifts in runoff, redefining hydrological risks and water resource availability. The need to document and foresee these changes calls for renewed observational and modelling studies to better understand and quantify the ensuing effects of changing climate conditions on the hydrology of cold regions. This Special Issue calls for innovative contributions to this theme, focusing on the following aspects: effects of glacier mass balance changes on hydrology; changes in snow accumulation and ablation processes and their effects on hydrological variability; interactions between cryospheric processes and their effects on hydrology; and the impact of seasonal soil freezing on runoff partitioning, to name a few. Diverse methodological approaches are welcomed, including forthcoming observational studies, projections or sensitivity experiments based on physically based or conceptual models, as well as analyses of long-term observations.

Prof. Christophe Kinnard
Prof. Dr. Alain N. Rousseau
Prof. Stephen Dery
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Cold region hydrology
Snow cover
Glacier mass balance
Frozen ground
Hydrological modeling
Cryospheric processes
Projection of climate impacts
Hydrological process interactions

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

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20 pages, 46033 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatio-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Snow Depth and Snow Cover Days over the Tibetan Plateau

by Chi Zhang, Naixia Mou, Jiqiang Niu, Lingxian Zhang and Feng Liu

Water 2021, 13(3), 307; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13030307 - 27 Jan 2021

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3134

Abstract

Changes in snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have a significant impact on agriculture, hydrology, and ecological environment of surrounding areas. This study investigates the spatio-temporal pattern of snow depth (SD) and snow cover days (SCD), as well as the impact of temperature and precipitation on snow cover over TP from 1979 to 2018 by using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, and uses the Mann–Kendall test for significance. The results indicate that (1) the average annual SD and SCD in the southern and western edge areas of TP are relatively high, reaching 10 cm and 120 d or more, respectively. (2) In the past 40 years, SD (s = 0.04 cm decade⁻¹, p = 0.81) and SCD (s = −2.3 d decade⁻¹, p = 0.10) over TP did not change significantly. (3) The positive feedback effect of precipitation is the main factor affecting SD, while the negative feedback effect of temperature is the main factor affecting SCD. This study improves the understanding of snow cover change and is conducive to the further study of climate change on TP. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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20 pages, 5699 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff Generation in an Andean Glacier Watershed

by Rossana Escanilla-Minchel, Hernán Alcayaga, Marco Soto-Alvarez, Christophe Kinnard and Roberto Urrutia

Water 2020, 12(12), 3547; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123547 - 17 Dec 2020

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 4285

Abstract

Excluding Antarctica and Greenland, 3.8% of the world’s glacier area is concentrated in Chile. The country has been strongly affected by the mega drought, which affects the south-central area and has produced an increase in dependence on water resources from snow and glacier melting in dry periods. Recent climate change has led to an elevation of the zero-degree isotherm, a decrease in solid-state precipitation amounts and an accelerated loss of glacier and snow storage in the Chilean Andes. This situation calls for a better understanding of future water discharge in Andean headwater catchments in order to improve water resources management in glacier-fed populated areas. The present study uses hydrological modeling to characterize the hydrological processes occurring in a glacio-nival watershed of the central Andes and to examine the impact of different climate change scenarios on discharge. The study site is the upper sub-watershed of the Tinguiririca River (area: 141 km²), of which nearly 20% is covered by Universidad Glacier. The semi-distributed Snowmelt Runoff Model + Glacier (SRM+G) was forced with local meteorological data to simulate catchment runoff. The model was calibrated on even years and validated on odd years during the 2008–2014 period and found to correctly reproduce daily runoff. The model was then forced with downscaled ensemble projected precipitation and temperature series under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and the glacier adjusted using a volume-area scaling relationship. The results obtained for 2050 indicate a decrease in mean annual discharge (MAD) of 18.1% for the lowest emission scenario and 43.3% for the most pessimistic emission scenario, while for 2100 the MAD decreases by 31.4 and 54.2%, respectively, for each emission scenario. Results show that decreasing precipitation lead to reduced rainfall and snowmelt contributions to discharge. Glacier melt thus partly buffers the drying climate trend, but our results show that the peak water occurs near 2040, after which glacier depletion leads to reducing discharge, threatening the long-term water resource availability in this region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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19 pages, 3208 KiB

Open AccessArticle

What is the Trade-Off between Snowpack Stratification and Simulated Snow Water Equivalent in a Physically-Based Snow Model?

by Julien Augas, Kian Abbasnezhadi, Alain N. Rousseau and Michel Baraer

Water 2020, 12(12), 3449; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123449 - 8 Dec 2020

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3245

Abstract

In Nordic watersheds, estimation of the dynamics of snow water equivalent (SWE) represents a major step toward a satisfactory modeling of the annual hydrograph. For a multilayer, physically-based snow model like MASiN (Modèle Autonome de Simulation de la Neige), the number of modeled snow layers can affect the accuracy of the simulated SWE. The objective of this study was to identify the maximum number of snow layers (MNSL) that would define the trade-off between snowpack stratification and SWE modeling accuracy. Results indicated that decreasing the MNSL reduced the SWE modeling accuracy since the thermal energy balance and the mass balance were less accurately resolved by the model. Nevertheless, from a performance standpoint, SWE modeling can be accurate enough with a MNSL of two (2), with a substantial performance drop for a MNSL value of around nine (9). Additionally, the linear correlation between the values of the calibrated parameters and the MNSL indicated that reducing the latter in MASiN increased the fresh snow density and the settlement coefficient, while the maximum radiation coefficient decreased. In this case, MASiN favored the melting process, and thus the homogenization of snow layers occurred from the top layers of the snowpack in the modeling algorithm. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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14 pages, 3403 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Glaciers in Xinjiang, China: Past Changes and Current Status

by Puyu Wang, Zhongqin Li, Hongliang Li, Zhengyong Zhang, Liping Xu and Xiaoying Yue

Water 2020, 12(9), 2367; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092367 - 24 Aug 2020

Cited by 21 | Viewed by 4753

Abstract

The Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China is the largest arid region in Central Asia, and is heavily dependent on glacier melt in high mountains for water supplies. In this paper, glacier and climate changes in Xinjiang during the past decades were comprehensively discussed based on glacier inventory data, individual monitored glacier observations, recent publications, as well as meteorological records. The results show that glaciers have been in continuous mass loss and dimensional shrinkage since the 1960s, although there are spatial differences between mountains and sub-regions, and the significant temperature increase is the dominant controlling factor of glacier change. The mass loss of monitored glaciers in the Tien Shan has accelerated since the late 1990s, but has a slight slowing after 2010. Remote sensing results also show a more negative mass balance in the 2000s and mass loss slowing in the latest decade (2010s) in most regions. This needs further investigation on whether the slowing is general and continuing. In addition, glacier surging occurs more frequently in the Karakoram and Kunlun Mountains. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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18 pages, 3805 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Climatic Perspective on the Impacts of Global Warming on Water Cycle of Cold Mountainous Catchments in the Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

by Zhicheng Xu, Lei Cheng, Peng Luo, Pan Liu, Lu Zhang, Fapeng Li, Liu Liu and Jie Wang

Water 2020, 12(9), 2338; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092338 - 20 Aug 2020

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 3097

Abstract

Global warming has a profound influence on global and regional water cycles, especially in the cold mountainous area. However, detecting and quantifying such changes are still difficult because noise and variability in observed streamflow are relatively larger than the long-term trends. In this study, the impacts of global warming on the catchment water cycles in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB), one of most important catchments in south of the Tibetan Plateau, are quantified using a climatic approach based on the relationship between basin-scale groundwater storage and low flow at the annual time scale. By using a quantile regression method and flow recession analysis, changes in low flow regimes and basin-scale groundwater storage at the Nuxia hydrological station are quantified at the annual time scale during 1961–2000. Results show annual low flows (10th and 25th annual flows) of the YZRB have decreased significantly, while long-term annual precipitation, total streamflow, and high flows are statistically unchanged. Annual lowest seven-day flow shows a significantly downward trend (2.2 m³/s/a, p < 0.05) and its timing has advanced about 12 days (2.8 day/10a, p < 0.1) during the study period. Estimated annual basin-scale groundwater storage also shows a significant decreasing trend at a rate of 0.079 mm/a (p < 0.05) over the study period. Further analysis suggests that evaporation increase, decreased snow-fraction, and increased annual precipitation intensity induced by the rising temperature possibly are the drivers causing a significant decline in catchment low flow regimes and groundwater storage in the study area. This highlights that an increase in temperature has likely already caused significant changes in regional flow regimes in the high and cold mountainous regions, which has alarming consequences in regional ecological protection and sustainable water resources management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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22 pages, 5494 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Data Availability Constrain Temperature-Index Snow Models? A Case Study in a Humid Boreal Forest

by Achut Parajuli, Daniel F. Nadeau, François Anctil, Oliver S. Schilling and Sylvain Jutras

Water 2020, 12(8), 2284; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12082284 - 14 Aug 2020

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3088

Abstract

Temperature-index (TI) models are commonly used to simulate the volume and occurrence of meltwater in snow-fed catchments. TI models have varying levels of complexity but are all based on air temperature observations. The quality and availability of data that drive these models affect their predictive ability, particularly given that they are frequently applied in remote environments. This study investigates the performance of non-calibrated TI models in simulating the subcanopy snow water equivalent (SWE) of a small watershed located in Eastern Canada, for which some distinctive observations were collected. Among three relatively simple TI algorithms, the model that performed the best was selected based on the average percent bias (Pbias of 24%) and root mean square error (RMSE of 100 mm w.e.), and was designated as the base TI model. Then, a series of supplemental tests were conducted in order to quantify the performance gain that resulted from including the following inputs/processes to the base TI model: subcanopy incoming radiation, canopy interception, snow surface temperature, sublimation, and cold content. As a final test, all the above modifications were performed simultaneously. Our results reveal that, with the exception of snow sublimation (Pbias of 5.4%) and snow surface temperature, the variables mentioned above were unable to improve TI models within our sites. It is therefore worth exploring other feasible alternatives to existing TI models in complex forested environments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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15 pages, 2373 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Runoff Changes from Urumqi Glacier No. 1 over the Past 60 Years, Eastern Tianshan, Central Asia

by Yufeng Jia, Zhongqin Li, Shuang Jin, Chunhai Xu, Haijun Deng and Mingjun Zhang

Water 2020, 12(5), 1286; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051286 - 1 May 2020

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 3206

Abstract

Glaciers are vital to water resources in the arid land of central Asia. Long-term runoff records in the glacierized area are particularly valuable in terms of evaluating glacier recession and water resource change on both a regional and global scale. The runoff records of streams draining basins with 46% current glacier cover, located at the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the source area of the Urumqi River in eastern Tianshan, central Asia, were examined for the purpose of assessing climatic and glacial influences on temporal patterns of streamflow for the period 1959–2018. Results suggest that runoff from the catchment correlates well with temperature and associated precipitation data. During the period 1993–2018, it increased by 114.39 × 10⁴ m³, which was 1.7 times the average runoff during the period 1959–1992. A simple water balance model is introduced to calculate the different components of the runoff, including precipitation runoff from glacier surface and from nonglacial areas, glacier mass balance and glacial runoff. Thus, the long-term change of each component and its response to climate change are revealed. We found that the period 1997–2018 is likely to be the “peak water” (tipping point) of the glacial runoff resulting from shrinkage of glacier area. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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24 pages, 4590 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Time Variant Sensitivity Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in a Cold Region Using Flow Signatures

by Ajay Bajracharya, Hervé Awoye, Tricia Stadnyk and Masoud Asadzadeh

Water 2020, 12(4), 961; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12040961 - 28 Mar 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 4580

Abstract

The complex terrain, seasonality, and cold region hydrology of the Nelson Churchill River Basin (NCRB) presents a formidable challenge for hydrological modeling, which complicates the calibration of model parameters. Seasonality leads to different hydrological processes dominating at different times of the year, which translates to time variant sensitivity in model parameters. In this study, Hydrological Predictions for the Environment model (HYPE) is set up in the NCRB to analyze the time variant sensitivity analysis (TVSA) of model parameters using a Global Sensitivity Analysis technique known as Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS). TVSA can identify parameters that are highly influential in a short period but relatively uninfluential over the whole simulation period. TVSA is generally effective in identifying model’s sensitivity to event-based parameters related to cold region processes such as snowmelt and frozen soil. This can guide event-based calibration, useful for operational flood forecasting. In contrast to residual based metrics, flow signatures, specifically the slope of the mid-segment of the flow duration curve, allows VARS to detect the influential parameters throughout the timescale of analysis. The results are beneficial for the calibration process in complex and multi-dimensional models by targeting the informative parameters, which are associated with the cold region hydrological processes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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29 pages, 8870 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Shifting Hydrological Processes in a Canadian Agroforested Catchment due to a Warmer and Wetter Climate

by Okan Aygün, Christophe Kinnard, Stéphane Campeau and Sebastian A. Krogh

Water 2020, 12(3), 739; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12030739 - 8 Mar 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 4357

Abstract

This study examines the hydrological sensitivity of an agroforested catchment to changes in temperature and precipitation. A physically based hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to simulate the hydrological processes over 23 years in the Acadie River Catchment in southern Québec. The observed air temperature and precipitation were perturbed linearly based on existing climate change projections, with warming of up to 8 °C and an increase in total precipitation up to 20%. The results show that warming causes a decrease in blowing snow transport and sublimation losses from blowing snow, canopy-intercepted snowfall and the snowpack. Decreasing blowing snow transport leads to reduced spatial variability in peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and a more synchronized snow cover depletion across the catchment. A 20% increase in precipitation is not sufficient to counteract the decline in annual peak SWE caused by a 1 °C warming. On the other hand, peak spring streamflow increases by 7% and occurs 20 days earlier with a 1 °C warming and a 20% increase in precipitation. However, when warming exceeds 1.5 °C, the catchment becomes more rainfall dominated and the peak flow and its timing follows the rainfall rather than snowmelt regime. Results from this study can be used for sustainable farming development and planning in regions with hydroclimatic characteristics similar to the Acadie River Catchment, where climate change may have a significant impact on the dominating hydrological processes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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Review

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21 pages, 4564 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperReview

Historical Trends and Projections of Snow Cover over the High Arctic: A Review

by Hadi Mohammadzadeh Khani, Christophe Kinnard and Esther Lévesque

Water 2022, 14(4), 587; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14040587 - 15 Feb 2022

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3129

Abstract

Snow is the dominant form of precipitation and the main cryospheric feature of the High Arctic (HA) covering its land, sea, lake and river ice surfaces for a large part of the year. The snow cover in the HA is involved in climate feedbacks that influence the global climate system, and greatly impacts the hydrology and the ecosystems of the coldest biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. The ongoing global warming trend and its polar amplification is threatening the long-term stability of the snow cover in the HA. This study presents an extensive review of the literature on observed and projected snow cover conditions in the High Arctic region. Several key snow cover metrics were reviewed, including snowfall, snow cover duration (SCD), snow cover extent (SCE), snow depth (SD), and snow water equivalent (SWE) since 1930 based on in situ, remote sensing and simulations results. Changes in snow metrics were reviewed and outlined from the continental to the local scale. The reviewed snow metrics displayed different sensitivities to past and projected changes in precipitation and air temperature. Despite the overall increase in snowfall, both observed from historical data and projected into the future, some snow cover metrics displayed consistent decreasing trends, with SCE and SCD showing the most widespread and steady decreases over the last century in the HA, particularly in the spring and summer seasons. However, snow depth and, in some regions SWE, have mostly increased; nevertheless, both SD and SWE are projected to decrease by 2030. By the end of the century, the extent of Arctic spring snow cover will be considerably less than today (10–35%). Model simulations project higher winter snowfall, higher or lower maximum snow depth depending on regions, and a shortened snow season by the end of the century. The spatial pattern of snow metrics trends for both historical and projected climates exhibit noticeable asymmetry among the different HA sectors, with the largest observed and anticipated changes occurring over the Canadian HA. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Whither Cold Regions Hydrology under Changing Climate Conditions)

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