3.1. PCBs at Willow Beach
The sum of all PCB congeners (tPCBs) for five sites along an 8 km stretch in the Colorado River above and below WB (
Figure 1) detected in water, sediment, periphyton, as well as in fish feed, fish tank caulking and gap-filler used at the WBNFH are presented in
Table 1. These samples were taken based on PCA results from a 2007/08 study where tPCBs in male carp whole bodies was a variable, and WB clearly had higher concentrations than the other three sites in LMNRA [
4]. The overall mean tPCBs from WB from that study was 408 ng/g ww in male carp (n = 54), being the highest of all sites. A previous study [
20] also showed WB male carp contained high PCB levels (870 ng/g ww), being the second highest level among the 14 sites in the CRB. Thus, the question surfaced as to why did carp at WB have such high PCBs levels compared to the other three LMNRA sites?
Leakage from old electric transformers at Hoover Dam could be a potential source [
4]. The two upstream sites above WB showed possible PCB sources as they were the only detections in sediment of five sites (
Table 1). However, periphyton values indicated PCBs sources at WB with the highest tPCB values of 4.8 ng/g dry weight (dw), and then at the farthest downstream site of 5.9 ng/g dw (
Table 1). These values are at least an order of magnitude lower than tPCBs levels of 40–325 ng/g dw in periphyton from Lake Mead [
7]. A potential route of PCB exposure to WB carp was observed from many fish feeding on the remnants of fish feed at the WBNFH outfall that had PCB concentrations ranging from 3.4–9.1 ng/g dw (
Table 1). These PCB concentrations are comparable to the mean of 6.85 ng/g dw found in fish feed samples from the U.S. [
48]. Other sources of PCBs at WBNFH included caulk and gap-filler, showing an order of magnitude higher levels (
Table 1) than fish food. In this study, because no PCBs were detected in water (method detection limit 460 pg/L) at any of the five WB sites, there does not appear to be a large PCB source in this stretch of the river from upstream sources.
A possible explanation of higher PCBs in WB carp despite low PCBs in water and fish feed remnants in the hatchery outfall is male carp have the highest mean age of 44 years (up to 54 years) in the CRB [
20]. There are several studies that show EOCs (including PCBs) accumulate with fish age [
49,
50,
51]. The mean age of WB male carp was 10 years older than carp at any other site in the CRB [
20], and where year-round water temperatures are between 12–14 °C, being considerably lower than the other three sites in LMNRA (
Figure 4). Cold water reduces metabolism and respiration, thus enhancing EOC accumulation [
51]. Moreover, carp lifespan was shown to be longer in colder climates (therefore colder water temperatures) in North America [
52]. The low threshold for initiation of carp growth, 12 °C [
53] significantly reduced the degree days for growth at WB compared to the other three sites between 670–980% (
Figure 4) and could explain the long-lived fish. In spite of WB male carp median PCBs levels of 207 ng/g ww being comparable to the median value of 228 ng/g ww from a reference site on the Hudson River, NY [
54], the very long chronic exposures (up to 54 years) at WB are associated with reduced reproductive potential (
Section 3.4) and testicular cancer.
3.2. Environmental Organic Contaminants in Water
All EOC results in water can be found in Alvarez and Echols (2024). Of the 130 EOCs analyzed, including metabolites and degradants, 72% were detected in passive sampling extracts in 2010: 18% (24) in OA; 38% (49) in WB; 50% (65) LVB; and 55% (72) LVW (
Table 2). The site gradient for the number of EOCs detected is very clear. OA < WB < LVB < LVW (
Table 2). Total EOC sums were ≈3 to 19 Xs higher in LVW compared to other sites and LVB was ≈5 Xs higher than OA and WB (
Table 2). Three years after this study in 2013 and 2014 [
7], results from passive sampling performed at LVB and OA showed lower values for both the number of compounds detected and the total EOC group sums detected in this 2010 study. The lower levels of EOCs in 2013/14 may be in part due to the higher populations of quagga mussels accidentally introduced to Lake Mead in 2007/08 with the population quickly expanding over time [
7]. Quagga mussels are efficient filter feeders that consume plankton and organic detritus and will therefore accumulate and concentrate contaminants directly from the water column and particulate matter [
55]. Hence, substantial quagga mussel populations can remove significant EOC mass from the water column through filter feeding. In 2012, the population number in Lake Mead was estimated to be 1.5 × 10
12 [
6], where 3.3 kg of EOCs were estimated to have been removed from the water column by quagga mussels compared with 31.3 kg of EOCs in the entire lake water column [
7].
With a substantial number of EOCs detected that are relevant for water quality criteria, screening values and benchmarks were used to assess potential toxicity and effects on aquatic biota. It is interesting that none of the legacy EOCs exceeded any chronic water quality criteria and were substantially lower even at LVW, the most contaminated site (
Table 3). Mirex, a legacy organochlorine pesticide that was banned in 1976, was detected at two sites, LVW (0.0013 ng/L) and at WB (0.011 ng/L). This WB site, number three (
Figure 1), is where the WBNFH has an outfall, suggesting a potential Mirex source in that area. Although the Mirex concentrations at these two sites were at least two orders of magnitude under the aquatic life criteria of 1.0 ng/L (
Table 3), the detections indicate historic sources.
In contrast to legacy contaminants, a newer group of EOCs, contaminants of emerging concern (CEC), include tens of thousands of very diverse compounds where many are ubiquitous in surface waters, are a source of growing concern [
56]. Of the four CEC detected from POCIS (
Table 4), each of the four sites showed concentrations that exceeded the ecological screening values that are used for assessing relative hazard to freshwater fish from chronic aqueous exposures in surface water [
56]. At 3600 ng/L, Galaxolide (HHCB), a polycyclic musk widely used in fragrances, substantially exceeded both the low comprehensive screening value (LCSV) of 64.9 ng/L and the low population relevant screening value (LPRSV) of 910 ng/L at LVW (
Table 4). Although the Galaxolide concentration indicated a low risk to aquatic biota in LVW, it is well below the high comprehensive screening value of 21,300 and high population relevant screening value (HPRSV) of 60,200 ng/L [
56]. Concentrations of two other CECs, N,N-diethyltolumide (DEET), a common insect repellant, exceeded the LPRSV of 1.3 ng/L ng/L at all four sites indicating it is widely used (
Table 4). The DEET concentration of 390 ng/L at LVW also exceeded the LCSV of 23.6 ng/L by more than an order of magnitude, but the values were well below the HPRSV of 7 × 10
5 ng/L (
Table 4). This concentration was higher than 51 wastewater effluents out of 58 reported Worldwide [
57]. Another CEC, triclosan is a commonly used antimicrobial in deodorants and toothpastes and it exceeded both high and low screening levels at WB and LVW (
Table 4). It has a number of effects in aquatic ecosystems including reduced growth in algae and both reproduction and development in fish [
7].
Of the nine pharmaceuticals analyzed within water samples, only four (44%) were detected, with all four found at LVW, three at LVB, and none at WB or OA [
26]. The concentrations at LVB and LVW were generally much lower than those reported in U.S. streams [
58], and the calculated risk quotient indicated they posed minimal ecological risk (
Table A2). A concentration gradient was clear regarding the pharmaceuticals from their sewage treatment plant source in LVW, with the highest concentrations lowered by 11–50% in receiving waters at LVB through dilution, sorption to sediment, or degradation, and then no detections occurred further downstream at WB [
26]. This gradient can be explained by the very short half-lives of pharmaceuticals when they are photodegraded in water, such as 24.9 h for azithromycin and 17.7 h for clindamycin [
59].
There was a clear gradient of the 34 PAHs analyzed in water with only 1 detected in OA, 12 in WB, 15 in LVB and 17 in LVW (
Table 3). The total sums in pg/L also had the same gradient as the number of detections, OA 35 pg/L, WB 1223 pg/L, LVB 2053 pg/L, and LVW 2532 pg /L (
Table 3). Assessing the ecological significance of the 16 PAHs of most concern was done by using EPA benchmarks for screening expressed as Toxicity Equivalent Factor (TEF) [
60] in pg/L Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). These TEFs showed a gradient similar to the one using water concentrations for 34 PAHs, OA 0 pg/L, WB 5.25 pg/L, LVB 9.4 pg/L, and LVW 14.4 pg/L (
Table 5). All TEFs were at least three orders of magnitude below the benchmark for ecological protection of 15,000 pg/L [
61]. The concentrations of five known carcinogenic PAHs were similar among the three sites at which they were detected, three from LVB, and four from both LVW and WB. The most carcinogenic PAH, B
aP was only detected at LVB [
26].
Table 3.
Water concentration of environmental organic compounds (EOC) at four study sites in Lake Mead National Recreation Area and their chronic aquatic life criteria. Values (ng/L) were estimated by using semipermeable membrane device samplers deployed over a ~30-day period prior to sampling biota in 2010.
Table 3.
Water concentration of environmental organic compounds (EOC) at four study sites in Lake Mead National Recreation Area and their chronic aquatic life criteria. Values (ng/L) were estimated by using semipermeable membrane device samplers deployed over a ~30-day period prior to sampling biota in 2010.
EOC Group | | Sampling Sites |
---|
Organochlorine Pesticides | Chronic Aquatic Life Criteria 1 | Overton Arm | Willow Beach 2 | Las Vegas Bay 3 | Las Vegas Wash |
---|
cis-chlordane | 4.3 | ND 4 | 0.0038 | 0.048 | 0.058 |
trans-chlordane | 4.3 | ND | ND | 0.026 | 0.049 |
p,p’ DDT | 1 | ND | 0.0077 | ND | 0.12 |
Dieldrin | 56 | 0.063 | 0.018 | 0.064 | 0.085 |
Endrin | 36 | 0.016 | 0.0099 | 0.02 | ND |
Lindane | 950 | ND | ND | 0.04 | 0.14 |
Chlorpyrifos | 41 | 0.11 | 0.029 | 0.065 | 0.13 |
Methoxychlor | 30 | ND | ND | ND | 0.029 |
Mirex | 1 | ND | 0.011 | ND | 0.0013 |
Endosulfan | 56 | ND | ND | 0.15 | 1.8 |
Heptachlor epoxide | 3.8 | 0.0069 | 0.023 | 0.046 | ND |
Polychlorinated Biphenyls | | | | | |
Total PCBs | 14 | ND | ND | 0.61 | 0.42 |
Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons | | | | | |
Acenaphthalene | 23,000 | ND | ND | ND | 0.32 |
Anthracene | 1.3 | ND | ND | ND | ND |
Benz [a] anthracene | 27 | ND | 0.037 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
Benzo [a] pyrene | 27 | ND | ND | 0.013 | ND |
Fluoranthene | 6160 | ND | 0.35 | 0.44 | 0.5 |
Phenanthrene | 3230 | ND | ND | ND | 0.85 |
Table 4.
Screening values for the contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) detected at four study sites in Lake Mead National Recreation Area for assessing relative hazard to freshwater fish from chronic exposures.
Table 4.
Screening values for the contaminants of emerging concern (CEC) detected at four study sites in Lake Mead National Recreation Area for assessing relative hazard to freshwater fish from chronic exposures.
Category | CEC | Screening Value 1 | Overton | Willow | Las Vegas | Las Vegas |
---|
| | LC 2 | LPR 3 | Arm | Beach 4 | Bay 5 | Wash |
---|
Fragrances | Galaxolide (HHCB) | 64.9 | 910 | ND | ND | 140 6 | 3600 6 |
Insect repellants | N,N-diethyltolumide | 23.6 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 19 | 390 |
Antibacterials | Triclosan | 2.5 | 2.9 | ND | 5.2 | 2.3 | 8.3 |
Flame retardants | Tris-2(butoxyethyl) | 480 | 1670 | ND | ND | ND | 160 |
| phosphate | | | | | | |
Table 5.
Toxicity Equivalency Factors (TEF) 1 of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) detected in water sampled from sites 2 below Hoover Dam in 2010.
Table 5.
Toxicity Equivalency Factors (TEF) 1 of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) detected in water sampled from sites 2 below Hoover Dam in 2010.
| | Willow | Las Vegas | Las Vegas |
---|
PAH | TEF | Beach | Bay | Wash |
---|
Acenaphthylene | 0 | ND | ND | 0.32 |
Fluorene | 0 | ND | 0.035 | 0.11 |
Phenanthrene | 0 | ND | ND | 0.85 |
Fluoranthene | 0 | 0 | 0.308 | 0.335 |
Pyrene | 0 | 0.266 | 0.265 | 0.36 |
Benzo (a) anthracene 3 | 0.1 | 2.58 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
Chyrsene | 0.01 | 0.67 | 1.1 | 1.9 |
Benzo(b)fluoranthene | 0.1 | 0.84 | ND | 4.7 |
Benzo(k)fluoranthene | 0.1 | 1.16 | ND | 2 |
Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) | 1 | ND | 6.5 | ND |
Benzo(a,h,i)perylene | 0.01 | ND | 0.39 | ND |
Sum per site | | 5.82 | 10.94 | 14.44 |
3.3. Estrogenic Activity
Results from the YES assay showed estrogenicity reported as estradiol equivalents (EEQ) at only two sites, OA (0.39 ng/L) and WB (3.1 ng/L) site three near the WBNFH (
Figure 1) and none at LVB. The sample at LVW was toxic to the yeast used in the assay across multiple dilutions indicating very high toxicity and therefore no EEQs were able to be generated. Estrogenicity can also be estimated by using estrogen receptor agonist activity (ERAA) [
62] for the 15 estrogenic EOCs detected. These results (
Table 6) proved useful and show a clear gradient, LVW > LVB > WB > OA, with an order of magnitude difference among sites.
One interesting YES result was that the highest EEQ (3.1 ng/L) was detected at WB site three with no detections upstream or downstream. However, the ERAA value for this site of 0.0118 ng/L (
Table 6) was only a fraction of the YES result, indicating other estrogenic compounds were present, but were not specifically analyzed at this site. Thus, the likely source of estrogenicity was from the WBNFH where the estrogenic effects were detected in water near the outfall. Estrogenic chemicals, mostly phytoestrogens, and estrogenic activity between 0.12–6.2 ng/L/g in fish food were found in 12 of 15 commercial fish feeds [
63]. Considering the large amounts of feed observed in the WBNFH outfall, it is suspected fish feed may be the primary source of estrogenicity measured in the water at this site, which is well above the 0.1–0.4ng/L long-term EEQ environmentally safe level [
64].
The estrogenic activity results determined with ERAA showed a gradient among sites. However, these are underestimates because every estrogenic chemical occurring at each site was not included, such as the sex steroid hormone 17β estradiol (E
2). Because there are no YES results from LVW, the 5.36 ng/L, ERAA is helpful in assessing potential effects on fish health and reproduction at that site. Past results from LVW [
65] showed E
2 as high as 2.7 ng/L (E
2 was not measured in this study) and when combined with the calculated ERAA (≈8.1 ng/L), this value provided a better estimate of estrogenicity at LVW. Generally, an estrogenicity of <1.0 ng/L is considered a reference value, and values of 1.0–3.0 ng/L are moderate [
66]. Estrogenic values have a wide range in water with values as high as 242 ng/L in the heavily farmed Imperial Valley to non-detects (<0.15 ng/L) in Sierra Nevada foothills of California, United States [
67]. Safe environmental EEQ levels for aquatic biota were developed by using a variety of in vitro assays [
64]. The long-term chronic value (exposure for >60 days) of 0.1–0.3 ng/L was well exceeded in both LVW and WB.
Some studies have been performed along gradients of environmental contaminants gradients to test the hypothesis that reproduction in male fish is associated with exposure to EOCs. One such study in the lower Columbia River assessed reproductive and endocrine parameters in male resident Largescale Suckers (
Catostomus macrocheilus) [
37]. Sperm quality parameters were significantly lower and vitellogenin (Vtg), a hormone used in female fish for egg production, was higher in males at the site where liver contaminants in fish and EEQs in water were highest. Correlations were found among specific contaminants and reproductive or endocrine parameters: total concentration of PBDEs were negatively correlated with sperm motility, PCB-206 and BDE-154 were positively correlated with DNA fragmentation, and thyroxine (T4) [
37]. In the CRB, sperm viability of Lake Mohave carp (79%), just below WB, was significantly lower than that from carp at Lake Havasu (95%) [
68]. Also, gamete quality, endocrine, and reproductive data were collected among LMNRA sub-basins over 7 years (1999–2006); diminished biomarker effects were noted in 2006, and sub-basin differences were indicated by the irregular occurrences of contaminants and by several associations among chemicals (e.g., PCBs, hexachlorobenzene, galaxolide, and methyl triclosan) and biomarkers (e.g., T4, sperm motility and DNA fragmentation) [
18,
69].
In this study, the site with the highest estimated estrogenicity, LVW (≈8.06 ng/L), was well below the lowest estrogenic values shown to impact sperm motility in fish (600 ng/L), but was not far from the 19 ng/L associated with Vtg induction in goldfish [
70,
71]. The highest concentration in LMNRA of the weakly estrogenic DEHP of 0.72 µg/L at WB is close to the 1.0 µg/L that decreased sperm production, motility, and velocity in goldfish [
72]. In spite of no measured individual estrogenic compounds being above concentrations that cause effects in lab studies, EEQs were well above long-term environmentally safe levels at LVW, where fish showed significantly lower sperm motility (
p < 0.05), significantly more DNA fragmentation (
p < 0.0001), and significantly more sperm cell forms indicative of not being reproductively mature (
p < 0.001) compared to LVB (
Table 6). These observations suggest that other environmental stressors, in addition to estrogenic compounds, can influence the reproductive potential of fish [
18,
37,
68]. The high concentration of HHCB above water quality criteria in LVW could be a factor for the lower sperm quality there, compared to LVB.
3.4. Biological Variables
A summary of biological variables is shown in
Table 7 for all four sites with statistical differences noted between LVW and LVB samples collected in July 2010 and OA and WB samples collected in November 2010. A multivariate analysis using PCA was performed to assess the most important biological variables separating sites within each sampling period (
Figure 5). From the principal component (PC) retained in the analysis, the only PC combination that indicated a graphical pattern in the separation of multivariate fish data at OA from WB was that of PC2 and PC4; it accounted for only 27.6 percent of data variability, indicating that unknown physiological and morphometric variables (other than those included in this PCA) may be necessary to fully describe site differences among fishes.
Data for most OA fish were found to the right of PC4, suggesting a unidimensional association with higher values of PC2 (
Figure 5A). Thus, based on the orientation of vector variables that met the significance criteria for interpretation (component loadings > 0.4), most OA fish showed relatively high content of liver glycogen compared to WB (
Figure 5A), which was also statistically higher (
p < 0.05) than WB that had higher EOC concentrations (
Table 2). A common target tissue for contaminants in vertebrates is the liver, especially for ingested chemicals [
73]. PCB accumulation in fish from WB was over an order of magnitude higher than fish from OA (
Figure 4). Changes in hepatic glycogen are a common response to toxic exposures or diet unbalance [
74]. Glycogen, for example, may be depleted in the liver under stressful conditions due to the rise of serum glucose [
75,
76,
77]. In this study, male carp from WB had lower glycogen levels than fish from OA, supporting the hypothesis that fish from WB may be exposed to environmental stressors that were affecting overall fish health.
Conversely, data for most WB fish were found in the upper-left quadrant of the plot (
Figure 5A), suggesting that they were simultaneously associated with increasing and decreasing values of PC4 and PC2, respectively—namely, most WB fish had higher incidences of abnormal sperm (
Figure 5) and testicular PgCA (
Figure 6). The considerably high prevalence of testicular PgCA, almost an order of magnitude higher than fish from OA (and almost double what was observed in LVB and LVW) was statistically significant (
Table 6). These results are supported by another study [
20], whereby carp at WB and South Cove, upstream of Lake Mead, showed the highest percentage and area of PgCA in spleen not only in the CRB, but in the nationwide USGS Large River Monitoring Network Program [
20]. High incidences of PgCA in fish tissues have been used as an index of environmental exposure to contaminants in aquatic environments [
78,
79,
80]; moreover, it has been shown that testicular PgCAs may affect steroidogenesis [
81] and the regulation of spermatogonial proliferation [
82].
The combination of PC1 and PC2 in the PCA for LVW and LVB yielded the clearest pattern of multivariate data separation. With a few exceptions, data from most LVB fish were in the upper-right quadrant of the plot while data from LVW fish were distributed across the other three quadrants (
Figure 5B). This pattern of data distribution suggests that most LVB fish are simultaneously associated with relatively high values of length and progressive sperm motility (
Figure 5B). Length in LVB fish was significantly greater (
p < 0.05) than fish from LVW, most likely due to much smaller available stream habitat in LVW compared with a much larger lacustrine habitat in LVB. Progressive sperm motility was 31% higher in LVB than LVW (
p < 0.05), with total EOCs being 73% lower in LVB compared to LVW (
Table 2). The distribution of data from LVW fish in the PCA was best described by fish length, percentage of sperm being less reproductively mature, and large coefficient of variation (CV) in DNA indicating less DNA integrity. For example, a fish with lower length (associated with negative values on PC2 and thus lower values of fish length), higher levels of immature sperm forms and higher DNA fragmentation (CV) would be a fish from LVW (
Figure 5B). PC1 and PC2 accounted for 42.5% of data variability.
Fish from LVW had significantly (
p < 0.001) more reproductively immature sperm forms (57%) than LVB fish (
Table 7). Spermatogenesis involves mitosis, meiosis, and cellular differentiation in the production of mature haploid sperm [
37]. Genotoxic effects from contaminants can increase the number of diploid spermatids in rodents due to failure of meiotic chromosomes to separate [
83]. Results from a field study in the Columbia River, WA, showed higher percentages of immature sperm stages in Largescale Suckers from sites with higher contaminants than the reference site indicating potential effects on reproduction [
37]. Similar results in another study in the Imperial Valley, CA, showed a higher percent of immature sperm forms in Western Mosquitofish (
Gambusia affinis) at sites contaminated with organochlorine insecticides compared to fish from a reference site [
77].
Fragmentation of nuclear DNA that alters integrity in fish chromatin has been related to effects on individuals as well as populations [
37], and can be caused by exposure to aromatic hydrocarbons in English Sole (
Parophrys vetulus) [
84]. DNA fragmentation as measured by coefficient of variation (CV), was a significant variable in the PCA analysis, separating LVW from LVB (
Figure 5) and significantly higher (
p = 0.0001) in LVW, 4.9% compared to LVB, 2.5% (
Table 7). LVW showed both 19% higher PAH concentrations in water (
Table 2) and 19% higher PAH TEFs (
Table 5), and lower sperm DNA integrity at the more contaminated site.
GSIs were 36% lower (
p < 0.05) at LVW compared to LVB (
Table 7) as previously reported in 2003 [
16]. Male carp from LVW sampled when testicular growth was complete but prior to spawning, showed lower 11-Ketotestosterone (11-Kt) compared to carp from LVB [
85]. Because 11-Kt is the sex steroid hormone that controls spermatogenesis and testicular development [
86], these data suggest fish in LVW, which were exposed to higher EOC concentrations, and especially those that are estrogenic (
Table 6), had relatively impaired gonadal development and thus lower GSI.
Testicular fibrosis, defined as an abnormal thickening of interstitial tissue in the germinal epithelium, has been observed after exposure to environmental stressors [
87,
88,
89], and may be a chronic tissue response to chemical exposure [
88], particularly estrogenic compounds [
88]. Interstitial thickness of the germinal epithelium was higher in male fish sampled in July (LVW and LVB) compared to the reference site OA sampled in November (
Table 7). This was expected after fish released sperm during spawning and testicular lobules contract resulting in thicker intralobular (interstitial) spaces. In the fall, the opposite occurs, because when testes are full of sperm, interstitial spaces are reduced as the lobules expand; however, fish from WB showed a significantly (
p < 0.05) higher degree of fibrosis (256%) than fish from OA, and even higher values than those from carp collected in July, when the GSI was lower (
Table 7). These results indicate an increased deposition of fibrous connective tissue in the testes of WB male carp, confirming that male carp in WB were exposed to environmental stressors affecting reproductive processes [
85].
3.5. Modeling Future EOC Concentrations and Water Temperatures
A water quality model was run to predict recycled water concentration (RWC) at WB below Hoover Dam as Lake Mead levels drop from changes in climate and the prolonged regional drought in the CRB. Since LVW is the primary source of EOCs into Lake Mead and it is 85% treated wastewater [
10], knowing how the RWC concentration changes will reflect how EOCs change. To estimate future RWC concentrations, the LM3 water quality model was run using relevant data, including inflow and outflow volumes, water quality measurements, and meteorological parameters from 2010, 2020, and a simulation for a water depth as low as 304.8 m. Results from this LM3 Lake Mead and Lake Mohave water quality model showed mean RWC decreased substantially at WB during the passive sampling period from 1.68% in 2010 to 0.71% in 2022 despite a 10 m drop in Lake Mead (
Figure A1). The model predicts values of RWC at WB would increase to 2.89% if Lake Mead dropped to 304.8 m, then decrease slightly to 2.23% at 289.6 m and not change much more, with 2.28% at 278 m being near dead-pool conditions (
Figure A1). The highest RWC of 4% is at 304.8 m lake elevation in late November (
Figure 7). Overall, the results of the LM3 model suggest that assuming future EOC loading is similar to the current load into Lake Mead, the concentration of any EOC at WB reported from this 2010 study could increase by as much as 135% if the lake water level drops to 304 m. While the maximum increase of EOC concentrations at WB of over 2 times is substantial, this does not raise the concentrations above the available chronic toxicity values for standard EOCs (
Table 3) or raise CEC concentrations that have not exceeded screening values to values that do (
Table 4). However this does not take into account EOCs or CECs that currently do not have chronic criteria or screening values, new data that may change (e.g., lower) the current criteria or screening values, or the consideration of increased toxicity from mixtures of contaminants.
While it seems counterintuitive, RWC leaving Hoover Dam was found to be higher at the higher lake elevation corresponding to 2010, versus the lower lake elevation modelled to be representative of conditions in 2022. The seemingly logical conclusion would be that more water available for dilution yields lower RWC; however, Lake Mead is a complicated system and the use of dam outlets that have different elevations drives this result. In 2010, the lake elevation was high enough that both the upper and lower Hoover Dam outlets were utilized, and the model assumes an even split between water volumes released through the two outlets when both outlets are used [
46], as both outlets are open when wetted. In May of 2022, the water level of Lake Mead became low enough that the Hoover Dam upper outlet could no longer be utilized, and water was released to Lake Mohave downstream using only the lower outlet in the colder hypolimnion. During October and November, RWC tends to remain near the top of the water column in the warmer epilimnion by the time it travels to the Hoover Dam. The mixed-layer release of 2010 thus had a higher concentration of RWC than the release from 2022, which remained around 1% until the end of November (
Figure 7).
Different seasonal flow patterns, lake stratification, and wind patterns can affect the water column composition of RWC. Deploying the passive samplers during different times of year may yield different results. With lake elevations used in each run of model for 2010, 2022, and the 304.8 m simulation, a strong gradient was exhibited by RWC whereby at 289.6 m and near dead-pool the RWC was mixed more thoroughly in the water column (
Figure 7). The depth-averaged RWC was higher at 289.6 m and near dead-pool than it was at 304.8 m; however, due to the location of the intake, the 304.8 m simulation releases water that is high in RWC near the bottom of the gradient. Wind and wave action affect RWC movement in the lake, leading to more thorough mixing in the water column by the time the RWC travels from LVW to Hoover Dam at the lower modelled lake elevations (289.6 m and near dead-pool). Because more vertical mixing occurs in the water column at these lower elevations, the RWC released at 289.6 m and near dead-pool was less than projected at 304.8 m. The mean flow rate between 14 June and 14 July 2010, was 7.64 m
3/s, and 8.99 m
3/s in 2022 respectively, indicating a 17.6% increase in mean flow rate. This indicates that additional EOC loading into Lake Mead could have occurred between 2010 and 2022; however, it is difficult to quantify this as treatment technologies at the wastewater treatment plants have also improved between 2010 and 2022.
Warmer releases from Hoover Dam coupled with rising air temperatures directly affect water temperatures at Willow Beach (
Table A3). Using a rank sum test, projected end of 21st century climate change causes statistically significant (<0.05) increases in water temperature in all five simulated scenarios of both Lake Mead water level and years compared (
Figure 7). Air temperatures rising 4.8 °C, due to climate change, may raise water temperatures at Willow Beach between 0.7–2.1 °C. This warming will become more pronounced relating directly with the drawdown of Lake Mead water levels to 304.8 m. If the water level in Lake Mead falls, releases from Hoover Dam will become epilimnetic, and consequently, warmer and more seasonally variable. There is more mixing in the water column at lake levels of 289.6 m, and near dead pool simulations.
Climate change is raising water temperatures around the world including lakes and streams [
90]. Specific effects of warmer water include holding less dissolved oxygen, increasing plankton blooms, altering thermal layering and turnover in lakes, and can increases epizootic fish disease [
91]. More general concerns are the alteration of fundamental ecosystem processes and the geographical distribution of species [
92]. Warmer water raises metabolism in fish that increases food consumption and respiration and exposure of fish to EOCs in food and water and therefore increases toxicity of some compounds [
93]. Dissolved oxygen saturation level concentrations (DOSLC) in Indian streams were predicted to decrease by 2.3% for every 1 °C rise in water temperature so DOSLC could be lowered at WB by over 5% at the end of the Century [
94]. However, the ecological response to global warming in aquatic ecosystems is complex and there is uncertainty how systems will change and respond [
95].