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Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings

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A special issue of Applied Sciences (ISSN 2076-3417). This special issue belongs to the section "Civil Engineering".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 August 2021) | Viewed by 31412

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Prof. Dr. Edyta Plebankiewicz

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Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland
Interests: tendering and bidding; planning methods in construction projects; building life cycle cost; fuzzy logic; construction management
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

It is my pleasure to announce the opening of a new Special Issue in the Applied Science Journal.

The main topics of this Special Issue will be regarding approaches for estimating the life cycle cost of buildings. The construction sector is a major consumer of natural resources and cost. Life cycle cost (LCC) makes it possible for the whole life performance of buildings and other structures to be optimized. The introduction of the idea of thinking in terms of a building life cycle resulted in the need to use appropriate tools and techniques for assessing and analyzing costs throughout the life cycle of the building. Traditionally, estimates of LCC have been done based on historical analysis of data and have used deterministic models. The concepts of probability theory can also be applied to life cycle costing, treating the costs, and timings as a stochastic process. If any subjectivity is introduced to the estimates, then the uncertainty cannot be handled using the probability theory alone. The fuzzy sets theory is a valuable tool for handling such uncertainties. Possible improvements to the traditional approach models, using, for example, an analytical hierarchical model (AHP), are proposed.

From this perspective, this Special Issue will contribute to the field by presenting the most relevant advances in this research area.

The following are some of the topics proposed for this Special Issue (but not limited to):

Methods and technics of LCC analysis
Probabilistic and fuzzy approaches for estimating the Life Cycle Cost of building systems and components
Probabilistic and fuzzy approaches for estimating the cost at different stages of a building's life cycle
The factors affecting the LCC of building
Determining the data required for the LCC calculation
Dealing with uncertainty in LCC analysis
Software for LCC analysis of buildings and building systems
Using the BIM tool in the building cost calculation

We hope you will contribute your high-quality research and we look forward to reading your valuable results.

Prof. Dr. Edyta Plebankiewicz
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

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Keywords

Life cycle cost (LCC)
Whole life costing (WLC)
Fuzzy approach
Decision-making
Cost modeling
Building
Construction
Cost calculation
Building information modeling (BIM)

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Published Papers (11 papers)

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Research

24 pages, 770 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Identification and Prioritization of Critical Risk Factors of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects: A Delphi Study Using the TOPSIS Method

by Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Mojtaba Khosravi, Matteo Cristofaro, Daniel W. M. Chan and Hadi Sarvari

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(17), 7906; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11177906 - 27 Aug 2021

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3800

Abstract

Construction development of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects (CRCBPs) is one of the community needs of many developing countries. Since the implementation of these projects is usually very costly, identifying and evaluating their Critical Risk Factors (CRFs) are of significant importance. Therefore, the current study aims to identify and prioritize CRFs of CRCBPs in the Iranian context. A descriptive-survey method was used in this research; the statistical population, selected based on the purposive sampling method, includes 30 construction experts with hands-on experience in CRCBPs. A questionnaire related to the risk identification stage was developed based on a detailed study of the research literature and also using the Delphi survey method; 82 various risks were finally identified. In order to confirm the opinions of experts in identifying the potential risks, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used. In the first stage of data analysis, qualitative evaluation was performed by calculating the severity of risk effect and determining the cumulative risk index, based on which 25 CRFs of CRCBPs were identified for more accurate evaluation. At this stage, the identified CRFs were evaluated based on multi-criteria decision-making techniques and using the TOPSIS technique. Results show that the ten CRFs of CRCBPs are external threats from international relations, exchange rate changes, bank interest rate fluctuations, traffic licenses, access to skilled labor, changes in regional regulations, the condition of adjacent buildings, fluctuations and changes in inflation, failure to select a suitable and qualified consultant, and employer’s previous experiences and records. Obviously, the current study’s results and findings can be considered by CRCBPs in both the private and public sectors for proper effective risk identification, evaluation, and mitigation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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14 pages, 1038 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Statistical Methods in Bidding Decision Support for Construction Companies

by Agnieszka Leśniak

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(13), 5973; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11135973 - 27 Jun 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3492

Abstract

On the border of two phases of a building life cycle (LC), the programming phase (conception and design) and the execution phase, a contractor is selected. A particularly appropriate method of selecting a contractor for the construction market is the tendering system. It is usually based on quality and price criteria. The latter may involve the price (namely, direct costs connected with works realization as well as mark-ups, mainly overhead costs and profit) or cost (based on the life cycle costing (LCC) method of cost efficiency). A contractor’s decision to participate in a tender and to calculate a tender requires an investment of time and company resources. As this decision is often made in a limited time frame and based on the experience and subjective judgement of the contractor, a number of models have been proposed in the literature to support this process. The present paper proposes the use of statistical classification methods. The response obtained from the classification model is a recommendation to participate or not. A database consisting of historical data was used for the analyses. Two models were proposed: the LOG model—using logit regression and the LDA model—using linear discriminant analysis, which obtain better results. In the construction of the LDA model, the equation of the discriminant function was sought by indicating the statistically significant variables. For this purpose, the backward stepwise method was applied, where initially all input variables were introduced, namely, 15 identified bidding factors, and then in subsequent steps, the least statistically significant variables were removed. Finally, six variables (factors) were identified that significantly discriminate between groups: type of works, contractual conditions, project value, need for work, possible participation of subcontractors, and the degree of difficulty of the works. The model proposed in this paper using a discriminant analysis with six input variables achieved good performance. The results obtained prove that it can be used in practice. It should be emphasized, however, that mathematical models cannot replace the decision-maker’s thought process, but they can increase the effectiveness of the bidding decision. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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17 pages, 521 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Implementation Factors of Information and Communication Technology in the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings

by Peter Mésároš, Tomáš Mandičák, Marcela Spišáková, Annamária Behúnová and Marcel Behún

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(7), 2934; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11072934 - 25 Mar 2021

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 2106

Abstract

Life cycle cost management is an integral part of buildings construction. The life cycle cost approach can be considered an objective approach because it considers all life cycles of buildings. Information and communication technology is one of the critical factors for the success of construction projects. Several studies point to the importance of information and communication technology use in life cycle cost management. Generally, information and communication technology can be helpful in the cost management process of buildings. However, few implementation factors of information and communication technology are used in the life cycle cost management of buildings. The research assumes that the most critical implementation factor is the investment cost for information and communication technologies used in cost management during the life cycle. The relative importance index method was used to evaluate and quantify the final rank of implementation factors. The Kruskal–Wallis test was used to confirm or reject research results that were statistically significant. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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15 pages, 1572 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Substitution of Material Solutions in the Operating Phase of a Building

by Anna Sobotka, Kazimierz Linczowski and Aleksandra Radziejowska

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(6), 2812; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11062812 - 22 Mar 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2361

Abstract

During the operation of buildings, repairs, modernizations, adaptations, renovations, and reconstructions of parts of historic objects are performed. There is often the problem of using a different material or construction technology than was originally used, for a variety of reasons. For example, these are materials not currently manufactured, with necessary higher performance values (insulation, strength). The aim of the article was to analyze and evaluate the possibility of material substitution in repair works and to analyze the cause and effect analysis of its application in the context of different conditions. The article analyzes the causes and conditions of the substitution of materials in various stages of the exploitation phase of buildings, including historic buildings. A SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) matrix was developed for the phenomenon of material substitution during the operational phase. With aid from the DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) method, identification of cause–effect relationships regarding the issue of the possibility of applying the substitution of material solutions in building objects was carried out. The analysis carried out by the authors allows us to conclude that the use of substitution in the construction sector is justified and shows great opportunities in its implementation and development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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20 pages, 273 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Bayes Conditional Probability of Fuzzy Damage and Technical Wear of Residential Buildings

by Jarosław Konior and Tomasz Stachoń

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(6), 2518; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11062518 - 11 Mar 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1599

Abstract

The purpose of the research presented in the article is to identify the impact of the processes associated with the broadly understood maintenance of old residential buildings with a traditional construction on the size and intensity of the wear of their elements. The goal was achieved by analyzing the symptoms of the technical wear process, which involved the understanding of the mechanism of the occurrence of the phenomenon of damage, and the identification of the size and intensity of the damage to the elements of the evaluated buildings. The consequence of systematizing the most important processes that influence the loss of functional properties of residential buildings was the creation of the authors’ own qualitative model and its transformation into a quantitative model. This, in turn, enabled a multi-criteria quantitative analysis of the cause and effect phenomena—“damage-technical wear”—of the most important elements of downtown tenement buildings to be carried out in fuzzy conditions, i.e., uncertainty concerning the occurrence of damage and the wear process. The following key question was answered in the subjective expert assessment of the technical condition of an evaluated residential building: what is the probability of the wear of an element, which may be more or less correlated with its average maintenance conditions, or more simply, what is the probability that the element is more or less (approximately) worn? It has been proven that the conditional probability of the technical wear of an element in relation to its damage increases with the deterioration of the maintenance conditions of the building, and this increase is very regular, even in the case of different building elements. This probability is characterized by a low standard deviation and a narrow range of the dispersion of results in the case of various elements with regards to each of the considered building maintenance conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

14 pages, 664 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Damage and Technical Wear of Tenement Houses in Fuzzy Set Categories

by Jarosław Konior, Marek Sawicki and Mariusz Szóstak

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(4), 1484; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11041484 - 6 Feb 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1606

Abstract

The results and conclusions of the research presented in the article concern the topic of the technical maintenance and wear of traditionally erected residential buildings. The cause and effect relations between the occurrence of damage to the elements of tenement houses, which are treated as an expression of their maintenance conditions, and the size of the technical wear of these elements were determined in a representative and purposefully selected sample of 102 apartment houses built in the second half of the 19th and early 20th centuries in the Wroclaw, Poland downtown district “Srodmiescie”. Recognition of the impact of the maintenance of residential buildings on the level of their technical wear was carried out using quantitative methods from fuzzy set categories, and also with the use of the authors’ own model. The created model, based on the Zadeh function, was created in fuzzy conditions for the purpose of assessing the degree of damage to selected building elements. The treatment of the problem with regard to fuzzy criteria allowed for the synthesis of elementary criteria, which give the greatest approximations at the technical research stage of a residential building, into a global assessment of the degree of the wear of its elements. Moreover, it also significantly reduced the subjective factor of this assessment, which had a significant impact on the results of the research obtained in the case of good, medium and poor conditions of tenement houses. It was proven that the conditions of maintenance and use of buildings determine the amount of technical wear of their elements. The state of exploitation of the examined tenement houses is reflected in the mechanical damage to the internal structure of the elements (determined in fuzzy categories). This damage has a significant frequency and cumulative effects, and is characteristic for buildings with satisfactory and average maintenance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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12 pages, 606 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context

by Jana Korytárová and Vít Hromádka

Appl. Sci. 2021, 11(1), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/app11010109 - 24 Dec 2020

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4601

Abstract

This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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16 pages, 280 KiB

Open AccessArticle

New Aspects of Socioeconomic Assessment of the Railway Infrastructure Project Life Cycle

by Vít Hromádka, Jana Korytárová, Eva Vítková, Herbert Seelmann and Tomáš Funk

Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(20), 7355; https://doi.org/10.3390/app10207355 - 21 Oct 2020

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 2337

Abstract

The paper deals with the issue of evaluation of socioeconomic impacts of occurrences emerging from railway infrastructure. The presented research results form part of a broader research subject focusing on the evaluation of the socioeconomic benefits of projects for the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the safety and reliability of railway infrastructure. The research topic addresses a part of the evaluation of railway infrastructure project efficiency within its life cycle using the cost–benefit analysis method. The methodology is based on the description and definition of input variables that are essential for the process of evaluating socioeconomic impacts. It is followed by another important step, which is the analysis of the categories and the number of occurrences, separately, for regional and national lines, and, further, the data is sorted according to whether occurrences emerge at stations or on a wide line. The result of the presented research is an overview of the calculated values of the expected socioeconomic impacts of partial occurrences according to the categories related to the year of operation on the railway infrastructure and the unit of measure. The research team carried out an inquiry into the annual impacts of the subcategories of occurrences related to one railway station and one kilometer of wide line, e.g., for national lines, the impacts of €2922.72/station/year and €41.67/km of wide line/year were determined. The results of the presented research represent important and necessary inputs for the next phase of the research topic, i.e., the evaluation of the socioeconomic benefits of projects increasing the safety and reliability of railway infrastructure. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

18 pages, 1139 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Intensity of the Formation of Defects in Residential Buildings with Regards to Changes in Their Reliability

by Jarosław Konior, Marek Sawicki and Mariusz Szóstak

Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(19), 6651; https://doi.org/10.3390/app10196651 - 23 Sep 2020

Cited by 16 | Viewed by 2654

Abstract

Defining the basic determinants of the level of reliability with regards to the use of residential buildings and determining the function of the intensity of their characteristic defects are important issues concerning renovation strategy. The distribution of the exploitation time of residential buildings, the function of their reliability, and the distribution of the defect intensity of examined buildings are interdependent terms. Therefore, it can be assumed that the defect intensity of an object will be higher with an increase in its exploitation time. However, it is neither an increase reflecting the length of the building’s service life nor the value directly proportional to its age. The article presents a model and method of testing the defects and reliability of a representative group of traditional downtown residential buildings, which were erected in Wroclaw, Poland at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. A basic conclusion was drawn regarding the mechanism of damage of residential buildings: for the period of using the facility, in which the time of correct operation until failure has an exponential distribution, the average remaining time of failure-free operation is unchanged at any time. It was confirmed that the tested residential buildings, after a certain period of failure-free operation, fulfil their functions, just like new buildings. The optimal moment of renovation occurs after the end of the second period of operation, before the period of rapid wear. The study of the course of the damage intensity function over time reflects the wear process of a residential building in a representative sample of downtown residential buildings that were erected using traditional methods. Defining the average duration of the correct failure-free operation of an object by the reliability function, which determines the probability with which the correct operation time of an object will be longer than its age, has a practical application in the exploitation of a residential building and its components. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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27 pages, 2068 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multiple Criteria Evaluation of the EU Country Sustainable Construction Industry Lifecycles

by Arturas Kaklauskas, Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas, Arune Binkyte-Veliene, Agne Kuzminske, Justas Cerkauskas, Alma Cerkauskiene and Rita Valaitiene

Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(11), 3733; https://doi.org/10.3390/app10113733 - 28 May 2020

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2721

Abstract

This article looks at the trends and success of the sustainable construction industries in the EU member states, the UK and Norway. The research, covering the past three decades, revealed that different quality of life, macroeconomic, human development, construction and well-being factors define the sustainable construction industries in the EU member states, the UK and Norway. A multiple criteria decision matrix was created and analysed to look at the EU member countries, the UK and Norway from the perspective of their macro level environment and construction industries. Assessments of the sustainable construction industries were completed by using the COmplex PRoportional Assessment (COPRAS) and Degree of Project Utility and Investment Value Assessments (INVAR), two analysis methods. A look was taken at the dependencies linking the indicators related to the construction industries and macro level in the EU member countries, the UK and Norway. Then, the multiple criteria analysis of the construction industry’s utility degree and performances were completed, and recommendations were generated. A country’s perceived image and success can influence the economic behaviour of consumers. By and large, advanced and successful countries rarely become associated with a negative national image and their products and services rarely suffer negative consequences due to such association. This research, then, offers findings that can assist potential buyers in more rational decision-making when choosing of products and services based on a country of origin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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27 pages, 7259 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Improvement of Performance Level of Steel Moment-Resisting Frames Using Tuned Mass Damper System

by Masoud Dadkhah, Reza Kamgar, Heisam Heidarzadeh, Anna Jakubczyk-Gałczyńska and Robert Jankowski

Appl. Sci. 2020, 10(10), 3403; https://doi.org/10.3390/app10103403 - 14 May 2020

Cited by 43 | Viewed by 3114

Abstract

In this paper, parameters of the tuned mass dampers are optimized to improve the performance level of steel structures during earthquakes. In this regard, a six-story steel frame is modeled using a concentrated plasticity method. Then, the optimum parameters of the Tuned Mass Damper (TMD) are determined by minimizing the maximum drift ratio of the stories. The performance level of the structure is also forced to be located in a safety zone. The incremental dynamic analysis is used to analyze the structural behavior under the influence of the artificial, near- and far-field earthquakes. The results of the investigation clearly show that the optimization of the TMD parameters, based on minimizing the drift ratio, reduces the structural displacement, and improves the seismic behavior of the structure based on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA-356). Moreover, the values of base shear have been decreased for all studied records with peak ground acceleration smaller or equal to 0.5 g. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings)

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