Comprehensive Research in Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Dear Colleagues,

Despite some success, the issue of earthquake forecasting has yet to be resolved. Discussions in concerning the principal possibility of earthquake forecasting surface intermittently within the scientific community, especially in the short-term aspect. However, the bulk of these discussions were set in the Resolution of the General Assembly of the International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (IASPEI) in 2009 in Cape Town: "Resolution 4: Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability Studies - IASPEI RECOGNIZING the opportunities provided by recent developments in earthquake science and technology RECOMMENDS that research on forecasting and predictability of earthquakes, and the validation and comparative testing of prediction methods be supported".

However, it is not sufficient to correctly predict a future strong earthquake. It is necessary to provide a correct, scientifically substantiated assessment of the level of seismic danger, and the intensity of possible seismic shocks of a particular region, city and settlement. What should the administration of a megapolis do when it receives information about the likelihood of a strong earthquake? The problems of earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment are closely connected to the issues of high-quality aseismic construction.

More than 12 years have passed since the IASPEI Resolution was adopted, and new earthquakes have occurred, expanding our knowledge about the physics of the seismic process, the physics of earthquake preparation processes, and searches for earthquake precursors. The obtained new data became the basis for the development of new models of ground behavior under the influence of seismic waves, providing initial information for the development and parameterization of models of earthquake zones and equations of ground motion prediction.

For the forthcoming Special Issue "Frontiers in Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazard Reduction " of the MDPI Journal "Applied Sciences", we urge representatives of the scientific seismological community to share their results on the indicated topics in order to evaluate advancements in the earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard assessment, the state of the art of the problem, what to do, and in which direction to progress.

Researchers are invited to discuss results and the directions of further studies on the physics of the seismic process, from experiments in laboratory conditions to rock bursts in mines and seismically active regions during the preparation phase of strong earthquakes.

The development of earthquake forecasting models is being facilitated by the improvement of data and modeling inputs. Some modeling efforts are focused on short-term clustering of earthquakes, others on the time-varying probability of rupture of major fault sources, and others on the space–time–magnitude variation of the rate of earthquake occurrence in extended regions. Models can be statistical or physics based. Data input includes the past earthquake catalogue, known or inferred dates of previous fault ruptures, modeled physical variables such as stress accumulation and strain rates, and proposed precursory phenomena. Improved methods to test the performance of forecasting models are in development.

Contributions regarding all aspects of models designed to forecast earthquake occurrence in time and/or space are encouraged, and reports on the application of forecasts to inform the public or in support of earthquake countermeasures planning are welcome; articles on modern approaches to seismic hazard assessment and mitigation are also desired.

Prof. Dr. Alexey Dm. Zavyalov
Dr. Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou
Guest Editors

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