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Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation

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A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (28 June 2024) | Viewed by 11706

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Dr. Nina Nikolova

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Guest Editor

Department of Climatology, Hydrology and Geomorphology, Faculty of Geology and Geography, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, 1504 Sofia, Bulgaria
Interests: atmospheric circulation
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Dr. Martin Gera

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Guest Editor

Department of Astronomy, Physics of the Earth, and Meteorology, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University Bratislava, 81499 Bratislava, Slovakia
Interests: flight safety; LiDAR; low-level wind shear; microburst; gust front; windborne aerosol particles; protection of lives; public health; SESAR; safety; runway excursion; runway surface condition; data mining methods
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Atmospheric circulation is one of the main climate-forming factors that determine changes in the regime and territorial distribution of climatic elements. On the other hand, changes in air temperature affect baric centers in the atmosphere and lead to changes in atmospheric circulation characteristics. Knowledge of the role of atmospheric circulation in changes in air temperature and precipitation can contribute to a better determination of the extent of anthropogenic influence on climate change. Scientific research shows that due to climate change, extreme weather and climate phenomena such as high temperatures, heat waves, intense precipitation, and droughts are becoming more frequent and intense. At the regional and local level, the manifestation of extreme phenomena is influenced by the specific features of relief and atmospheric circulation, which determines the importance of regional studies of climate and climate-forming factors.

The aim of this Special Issue is to contribute to the clarification of causal relationships in the climate system and specifically of the relationships among air temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation at the global, regional, and local levels. Special attention will be given to the circulation mechanisms leading to the occurrence of extreme temperatures and precipitation.

The results from original research works and review papers analyzing the peculiarities of the spatial and temporal variabilities of air temperature and precipitation in relation to global, regional, and local circulation patterns will be published in the Special Issue.

Dr. Nina Nikolova
Dr. Martin Gera
Guest Editors

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Keywords

temperature and precipitation variabilities
extreme high/low temperature
heavy rainfalls
drought
atmospheric teleconnection
large scale/regional/local circulation processes
cyclones/anticyclones

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Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

15 pages, 7765 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin

by Zhengxuan Yuan, Jun Zhang, Liangmin Du, Ying Xiao and Sijing Huang

Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 998; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080998 - 20 Aug 2024

Viewed by 640

Abstract

Investigating the physical mechanism behind the formation of summer heat-drought weather (HDW) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) holds significant importance for predicting summer precipitation and temperature patterns in the region as well as disaster mitigation and prevention. This study focuses on spatiotemporal patterns of July–August (JA) HDW in the YRB from 1979 to 2022, which is linked partially to the preceding May–June (MJ) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Key findings are summarized as follows: (1) The MJ AAO displays a marked positive correlation with the JA HDW index (HDWI) in the southern part of upper YRB (UYRB), while showing a negative correlation in the area extending from the Han River to the western lower reaches of the YRB (LYRB); (2) The signal of MJ AAO persists into late JA through a specific pattern of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Southern Ocean (SOSST). This, in turn, modulates the atmospheric circulation over East Asia; (3) The SST anomalies in the South Atlantic initiate Rossby waves that cross the equator, splitting into two branches. One branch propagates from the Somali-Tropical Indian Ocean, maintaining a negative-phased East Asia–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. This enhances the moisture flow from the Pacific towards the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MYRB-LYRB). The other branch propagates northward, crossing the Somali region, and induces a positive geopotential height anomaly over Urals-West Asia. This reduces the southwesterlies towards the UYRB, thereby contributing to HDW variabilities in the region. (4) Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) demonstrated predictive capability for JA HDW in the YRB for 2022, based on Southern Ocean SST. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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12 pages, 1067 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Ural Blocking and the Amplitude of Wintertime Cold Surges over North China Detected by a Cooling Algorithm

by Zifan Yang, Wenyu Huang, Ruyan Chen, Daiyu Lin, Bin Wang and Wenqian Ma

Atmosphere 2024, 15(6), 623; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15060623 - 22 May 2024

Viewed by 665

Abstract

A new algorithm is proposed to estimate the cooling amplitude over North China induced by each Ural blocking event. Taking full account of potential transient temperature rises during the cooling process and the lag time of cooling relative to the blocking, this algorithm provides more detailed analysis which should not be possible by using former methods. The amplitude of the Ural blocking-related cooling events is found to have a broad distribution. Further, although most Ural blocking events lead to severe cold surges over North China, the number of Ural blocking events that do not induce significant cooling over North China cannot be ignored. The possible reasons for the wide range in cooling amplitude are explored in terms of the lifetimes and geographical centers of the blocking highs, the circulation patterns preceding the onset of the cooling events, and the snowfall associated with cooling events. Larger amplitude cooling events occur in Ural blocking highs that have longer lifetimes and northwestward displacements of their geographical centers. The northward displacement of a Ural blocking center favors the advection of extremely cold air from the Arctic regions, which accumulates in West Siberia and subsequently gives rise to the most severe cold surges over North China. The lack of activities of cold surges before the blocking-related cooling events not only amplifies the cooling amplitude directly, but also increases the occurrence probabilities of snowfalls through its modulation on the local specific humidity. The increased albedo and subsequent snow-melt induced cooling further amplify the cooling amplitude. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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20 pages, 3997 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Relations between High Anticyclonic Atmospheric Types and Summer Season Temperature in Bulgaria

by Vulcho Pophristov, Nina Nikolova, Simeon Matev and Martin Gera

Atmosphere 2024, 15(6), 620; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15060620 - 21 May 2024

Viewed by 683

Abstract

The atmospheric circulation, not only near the surface but also at high altitudes, is probably the main factor determining the weather and climate of a given area, along with its latitude, altitude, the shape of the relief of the area and its surroundings, and the proximity of water basins of different sizes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between anticyclonic circulation types in the middle troposphere at the 500 hPa level and the seasonal summer temperature over the region of the central Balkan Peninsula, particularly Bulgaria. A previously compiled classification of atmospheric circulation is used, and the frequencies of the circulation types are correlated with the mean seasonal (monthly) temperature, where the extreme seasons and months are defined as the 10th percentile for cold summer seasons and months and the 90th percentile for warm ones. A positive and statistically significant correlation was found for the anticyclones located southwest of Bulgaria and a negative one for those located southeast of it. A comparison between the last two 30-year climatological periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) was also made, and an irrefutable decrease in the number of cold summer seasons from 257 to just 17 was found in the last 30 years, respectively, as well as a rapid increase in the number of extreme warm summer seasons from 26 to 263, encompassing all 15 meteorological stations studied. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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19 pages, 5702 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Comparison of RegCM4.7.1 Simulation with the Station Observation Data of Georgia, 1985–2008

by Mariam Elizbarashvili, Avtandil Amiranashvili, Elizbar Elizbarashvili, George Mikuchadze, Tamar Khuntselia and Nino Chikhradze

Atmosphere 2024, 15(3), 369; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15030369 - 18 Mar 2024

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1237

Abstract

The global climate change, driven by natural processes and increasing human activities, is especially significant for Georgia. The region is experiencing increases in temperature, desertification, redistribution of precipitation, and a rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Georgia’s complex topography and its proximity to the Black and Caspian seas make it essential to employ high-resolution regional climate models to evaluate future climate change risks. In this study, we examine the results of a high-resolution simulation of mean and extreme precipitation and temperature using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4.7.1 for the period 1985–2008, providing an initial evaluation of the model’s performance for the territory of Georgia. The model domain (1524 km; 2388 km) encompasses the entirety of Georgia’s territory and surrounding regions. The simulation, conducted at a 12 km horizontal grid spacing using ERA5 data as boundary conditions, indicates that the least discrepancy between observed and modeled average annual temperatures and precipitation, falling within a −1 to 1 °C and −200 to 200 mm range, respectively, was observed at most stations of eastern Georgia. The largest disparities between the model and observed average annual precipitation totals were noted along the Black Sea coast, in the Kolkheti Lowland, and in some high mountain stations in western Georgia. The most significant differences in average annual temperatures between the model and observations were observed in Ambrolauri, Mt. Sabueti, and Dedoplistskaro. For Georgia territory, such a long run with such a high resolution using ERA5 as boundary conditions was conducted for the first time. Overall, the modeling results are quite satisfactory, providing a solid basis for the successful utilization of the regional climate model RegCM4.7.1 with the selected parameterization for modeling monthly mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in Georgia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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15 pages, 4634 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Detecting Indonesian Monsoon Signals and Related Features Using Space–Time Singular Value Decomposition (SVD)

by Adi Mulsandi, Yonny Koesmaryono, Rahmat Hidayat, Akhmad Faqih and Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan

Atmosphere 2024, 15(2), 187; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020187 - 31 Jan 2024

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2071

Abstract

Several investigations have proven the existence of monsoons in Indonesia. However, this has received little attention due to the scientific argument that the region of 10° N–10° S is not monsoonal because it receives precipitation all year round. This study used space–time SVD analysis of atmospheric and oceanic field data for 30 years (1990–2020) to detect monsoon signals and related features. The single-field SVD analysis of rainfall revealed that the first mode accounts for only 33% of the total variance, suggesting it is highly variable. Both the PC space and time series show the well-known monsoon pattern. Further, the Indonesian monsoon regimes and phases are defined based on the revealed rainfall features. The wet season lasts from November to April, accounting for more than 77% of annual precipitation. The coupled-field SVD analyses show that Indonesian monsoon rainfall strongly correlates with local SST (PC1 accounts for 70.4%), and the pattern is associated with the Asian winter monsoon. The heterogonous vector correlation map analysis revealed that the related features during the monsoon, including the strengthening and weakening of subtropical anticyclones, the intertwining of westerly wind in the Indian Ocean, and variations in the north–south dipole structure of the ocean temperature, are linked to variations in Indonesia’s monsoon rainfall. This result can serve as the dynamic basis for defining the Indonesian monsoon index in the context of the center of action. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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14 pages, 4600 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Differences of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Responses between Transient and Stabilization Simulations

by Jiawei Liu, Haiming Xu, Jiechun Deng, Jing Ma and Leying Zhang

Atmosphere 2023, 14(12), 1763; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121763 - 29 Nov 2023

Viewed by 1048

Abstract

The differences between the two global warming targets of the Paris Agreement, 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, have drawn much attention from the scientific community. However, there is a remaining gap to distinguish regional climate responses in these two most typical pathways, i.e., transient and stabilization simulations, toward specific warming levels. In this study, we discern the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) responses between these two types of simulations at low-warming targets, based on the fully coupled community Earth system model (CESM). The two types of responses display a similar increase pattern in the EASM precipitation. However, the quantitative differences between these two types of responses are as large as those between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios. The moist budget analysis reveals that the EASM precipitation differences are mainly caused by the thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy effects. Specifically, the thermodynamic effect contributes to the precipitation increment in the coastal area of East Asia in both types of responses, with the enhanced low-level specific humidity. The dynamic contribution shows tripolar and bipolar patterns in East Asia in the transient and stabilization responses, respectively. Remarkably, the transient eddy effect contribution emerges only in the stabilization responses. Further, we reveal the dominant role of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) in determining the contributions from dynamic and transient eddy effects. The changes in the EASJ’s position and intensity are greatly regulated by the temperature change patterns at the mid-high levels in response to different greenhouse gas emission pathways. Our study highlights the differences between transient and stabilization climate states on a regional scale. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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14 pages, 5537 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Typhoon Precipitation Forecasts Based on Topographic Factors

by Xu-Zhe Chen, Yu-Long Ma, Chun-Qiao Lin and Ling-Li Fan

Atmosphere 2023, 14(11), 1607; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111607 - 26 Oct 2023

Viewed by 1460

Abstract

For this paper, a new global atmospheric model (Global-to-Regional Integrated forecast SysTem; GRIST) with improved sub-grid scale orographic parameterization was verified and assessed, with an emphasis on the precipitation caused by typhoons. Four typical typhoon cases were selected for the verification of the model. The results indicate that, compared to the control experiments, the sensitivity experiments consistently simulated the trends in the three-hour cumulative precipitation changes and the high-value regions of total precipitation better. However, the improved experiments only had an ameliorating effect on the cumulative precipitation modelling biases for Typhoon LEKIMA and Typhoon HAGUPIT, not all of them. Precipitation bias is smaller on flat land than that on mountainous land, but the precipitation bias on windward/leeward slopes depends on the typhoon case. Precipitation modelling accuracy varies considerably between flat and mountainous terrain but very little between windward and leeward slopes. The precipitation simulation is poor for all terrains, with large precipitation thresholds in three typhoon cases, but for Typhoon HOTA, after improving the terrain, the model has the ability to forecast the heavy rainfall scenarios of the mountainous terrain. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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15 pages, 1444 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index Approach for Drought Assessment in Slovakia—Statistical Evaluation of Different Calculations

by Jaroslava Slavková, Martin Gera, Nina Nikolova and Cyril Siman

Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1464; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091464 - 21 Sep 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1346

Abstract

In the conditions of rising air temperature and changing precipitation regimes in Central Europe and Slovakia over the last two decades, it is necessary to analyse drought, develop high-quality tools for drought detection, and understand its reactions to the emerging drought situation. One of the frequently used meteorological drought indices is the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Several parameters can be modified in different steps of the calculation process of SPEI. In the article, we analyse the influence of selected adjustable parameters on the index results. Our research has shown that the choice of a statistical distribution (Log-logistic, Pearson III, or Generalized Extreme Value) for fitting water balance can affect the feasibility of calculating distribution parameters (and thus the index) from the provided input data, as well as lead to either underestimation or overestimation of the index. The normality test of SPEI can be used as a tool for the detection and elimination of highly skewed indices and cases when the indices were not well determined by the distribution function. This study demonstrated improved results when using the GEV distribution, despite the common use of the Log-logistic distribution. With the Pearson III distribution, unusually high or low SPEI values (|SPEI| > 6) were detected. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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22 pages, 5716 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial–Temporal Variations in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes during 1960–2019 in Guizhou Province, China

by Xu Xue, Shuangshuang Hou and Chuncan Meng

Atmosphere 2023, 14(7), 1162; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071162 - 18 Jul 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1386

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, climate extremes have become a crucial issue with distinct heterogeneity features in different regions. Hence, spatial–temporal changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Guizhou Province were investigated utilizing daily maximums and minimums of temperature and daily precipitation data during 1960–2019 based on trend analysis. It was concluded that, firstly, all warm extremes but warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) are significantly enhanced, whereas for cold extremes, the monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn) is significantly enhanced, while cool nights (TN10P), frost days (FD0), ice days (ID0), and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) are significantly decreased. And all precipitation extremes but consecutive wet days (CWD) have no significant variational trend in Guizhou Province. Secondly, variational trends of temperature extremes are more prominent and robust in western Guizhou Province. Temperature and precipitation extremes show large differences from spring to winter. Thirdly, temperature extremes are closely correlated with strength, area, and the westernmost ridge point index of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), whereas precipitation extremes show no distinct correlation with WPSH. The WPSH has significantly strengthened and shifted westward in the past 60 years, leading to less total cloud cover and more downward solar wave flux reaching Earth’s surface, accordingly, exacerbating warm extremes and weakening cold extremes. These results will benefit understanding the heterogeneity of climate extremes at a regional scale. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Air Temperature and Precipitation and Relationship to Atmospheric Circulation)

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