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Atmosphere
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High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability
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High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (25 September 2024) | Viewed by 3683

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Margarida Belo-Pereira

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
1. Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Divisão de Meteorologia Aeronáutica, Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077 Lisboa, Portugal
2. Centre for the Research of Agroenvironmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
Interests: windstorms; thunderstorms; tornadoes; downbursts; mountain waves and turbulence; aircraft icing
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. André Simon

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Forecasting and Warning Centre, Jeséniova 17, 833 15 Bratislava, Slovakia
Interests: numerical weather prediction; nowcasting; severe thunderstorms; wet snow; downslope windstorms; forecasting and user aspects

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

High-Impact Weather Events are usually associated with severe thunderstorms, tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. These systems can cause hazardous weather conditions such as heavy rain, and strong winds, including tornadoes and downbursts, hail and lightning. Despite improvements made in recent years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models operational in national meteorological services are unable to accurately predict the timing and location of such hazards. On a different time-scale, heat waves and droughts also have a significant social impact. In addition, recent studies have shown that compound events (multivariate and simultaneous extremes) with a very high impact on society have become more frequent, and this trend is expected to persist with increasing global warming. One example of a compound event with a very high impact on society is the simultaneous occurrence of heat waves and extreme wind events, which can intensify forest fires, ultimately leading to large deforestation and loss of life.

This Special Issue welcomes papers that contribute to improving the knowledge about high-impact weather, such as:

  • Studies addressing the dynamic aspects and predictability of High-Impact Weather Events, focusing on ensemble forecasting systems and convection-permitting models;
  • Observational and model-based studies of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and severe convective storms;
  • Nowcasting techniques, using satellite, radar, lightning systems and other observations;
  • Studies quantifying the effect of climate change on the characteristics of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, and on drought frequencies;
  • Studies addressing the predictability of compound events and the impact of climate change on the frequency of the compound events.

Dr. Margarida Belo-Pereira
Dr. André Simon
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • tropical cyclones
  • explosive cyclogenesis
  • windstorms
  • hailstorms
  • tornadic storms
  • squall lines
  • heat waves
  • climate change
  • ensemble forecast
  • model objective verification

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Further information on MDPI's Special Issue polices can be found here.

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

25 pages, 88222 KiB  
Article
Interactions Between a High-Intensity Wildfire and an Atmospheric Hydraulic Jump in the Case of the 2023 Lahaina Fire
by Clifford Ehrke, Angel Farguell and Adam K. Kochanski
Atmosphere 2024, 15(12), 1424; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15121424 (registering DOI) - 26 Nov 2024
Abstract
On 8 August 2023, a grass fire that started in the city of Lahaina, Hawai’i, grew into the deadliest wildfire in the United States since 1918. This wildfire offers a unique opportunity to explore the impact of high heat output on an atmospheric [...] Read more.
On 8 August 2023, a grass fire that started in the city of Lahaina, Hawai’i, grew into the deadliest wildfire in the United States since 1918. This wildfire offers a unique opportunity to explore the impact of high heat output on an atmospheric hydraulic jump and a downslope wind event. We conducted two WRF-SFIRE simulations to investigate these effects: one incorporating fire–atmosphere feedback and the other without it. Our findings revealed that, in the uncoupled simulation, the hydraulic jump moved inland significantly earlier than in the coupled simulation. This altered the wind pattern near the fire front in the uncoupled simulation, accelerating its lateral spread. The results suggest that fire–atmosphere interactions and their influence on near-fire circulation may be more intricate than previously understood. Specifically, while fire-induced wind acceleration is often linked to enhanced fire spread, this study highlights that, in cases where the lateral fire spread is dominant, fire-induced circulation may reduce cross-flank flow and inhibit the fire growth. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability)
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17 pages, 6805 KiB  
Article
Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Coastal Wind Speed during the Typhoon Season: A Case Study of Typhoon Lekima
by Lingzi Wang, Aodi Fu, Bashar Bashir, Jinjun Gu, Haibo Sheng, Liyuan Deng, Weisi Deng and Karam Alsafadi
Atmosphere 2024, 15(8), 880; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080880 - 24 Jul 2024
Viewed by 787
Abstract
The development and utilization of wind energy is of great significance to the sustainable development of China’s economy and the realization of the “dual carbon” goal. Under typhoon conditions, the randomness and volatility of wind speed significantly impact the energy efficiency and design [...] Read more.
The development and utilization of wind energy is of great significance to the sustainable development of China’s economy and the realization of the “dual carbon” goal. Under typhoon conditions, the randomness and volatility of wind speed significantly impact the energy efficiency and design of wind turbines. This paper analyzed the changes in wind speed and direction using the BFAST method and Hurst index based on data collected at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, and 70 m heights from a wind power tower in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. Furthermore, the paper examined the causes of wind speed and direction changes using wind speed near the typhoon center, distance from the typhoon center to the wind tower, topographic data, and mesoscale system wind direction data. The conclusions drawn are as follows: (i) Using the BEAST method, change points were identified at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, and 70 m heights, with 5, 5, 6, and 6 change points respectively. The change points at 10 m, 30 m, and 50 m occurred around node 325, while the change time at 70 m was inconsistent with other heights. Hurst index results indicated stronger inconsistency at 70 m altitude compared to other altitudes. (ii) By analyzing the wind direction sequence at 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, and 70 m, it was found that the wind direction changes follow the sequence Southeast (SE)—East (E)—Southeast (SE)—Southwest (SW)—West (W)—Northwest (NW). Notably, the trend of wind direction at 70 m significantly differed from other altitudes during the wind speed strengthening and weakening stages. (iii) Wind speed at 10 m and 70 m altitudes responded differently to the distance from the typhoon center and the wind near the typhoon center. The correlation between wind speed and the distance to the typhoon center was stronger at 10 m than at 70 m. The surface type and the mesoscale system’s wind direction also influenced the wind speed and direction. This study provides methods and theoretical support for analyzing short-term wind speed changes during typhoons, offering reliable support for selecting wind power forecast indicators and designing wind turbines under extreme gale weather conditions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability)
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19 pages, 13219 KiB  
Article
Advanced Understanding of Sea Surface Cooling Off Northeastern Taiwan to Tropical Cyclone by Using Numerical Modeling
by Hsin-Ju Wu and Zhe-Wen Zheng
Atmosphere 2024, 15(6), 663; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15060663 - 31 May 2024
Viewed by 534
Abstract
From 2001 to 2020, three typhoons with similar moving paths and intensities were found to trigger markedly different cooling off northeastern Taiwan. They were typhoons Utor (2001), Nuri (2008), and Hagupit (2008), which led to maximum sea surface temperature (SST) cooling temperatures of [...] Read more.
From 2001 to 2020, three typhoons with similar moving paths and intensities were found to trigger markedly different cooling off northeastern Taiwan. They were typhoons Utor (2001), Nuri (2008), and Hagupit (2008), which led to maximum sea surface temperature (SST) cooling temperatures of 8.8, 2.7, and 1.4 °C, respectively. The drastic cooling discrepancy implies that the existing understanding of the key mechanism leading to the cooling off northeastern Taiwan could be insufficient. For further exploring the key reason(s) contributing to the marked discrepancy, a regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS) was used to reconstruct the background oceanic environment corresponding to three typhoon passages. Results show that the wide radius of maximum winds of typhoon Utor contributes to the strongest SST cooling by enhancing the Kuroshio intrusion (KI) onto the shelf northeast of Taiwan. Heat budget diagnostics explain why including tidal forcing can substantially promote SST cooling. The process was associated mainly with a stronger vertical advection tied to the influence of de-stratification by tidal mixing. Finally, warmer Taiwan Strait currents, driven by wind forcing the typhoons to pass zonally through the north South China Sea, intruded clockwise into the Longdong coast and accelerated the recovery of sea surface cooling around Longdong. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability)
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20 pages, 11618 KiB  
Article
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Severe Sub-Hourly Precipitation Events in Mainland Portugal
by José Cruz, Margarida Belo-Pereira, André Fonseca and João A. Santos
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1443; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091443 - 16 Sep 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1483
Abstract
Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to [...] Read more.
Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 to 2022. Higher precipitation variability is found in southern Portugal, with a higher ratio of extreme events on fewer rainy days. This study shows that these SHHP events are associated with low-pressure systems located just to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. These systems exhibit a cold core, particularly strong at mid-levels, and a positive vorticity anomaly, which is stronger in the upper troposphere, extending downward to low levels. These conditions drive differential positive vorticity advection and, therefore, rising motion to the east of the low-pressure systems. Moreover, at low levels, these systems promote moisture advection over western Iberia, also generating instability conditions, which are assessed by instability indices (Convective available potential energy, the Total-Totals index, and the K-index). The combination of these conditions drives heavy precipitation events. Lastly, the total column cloud ice water revealed higher values for the heavier precipitation events, suggesting that it may be a useful predictor of such events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability)
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