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20 pages, 21564 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Temperature Extremes: Estimation of Non-Stationary Return Levels and Associated Uncertainties

by Yasser Hamdi, Claire-Marie Duluc and Vincent Rebour

Atmosphere 2018, 9(4), 129; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040129 - 29 Mar 2018

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 5188

Abstract

Estimating temperature extremes (TEs) and associated uncertainties under the non-stationary (NS) assumption is a key research question in several domains, including the nuclear safety field. Methods for estimating TEs and associated confidence intervals (CIs) have often been used in the literature but in [...] Read more.

Estimating temperature extremes (TEs) and associated uncertainties under the non-stationary (NS) assumption is a key research question in several domains, including the nuclear safety field. Methods for estimating TEs and associated confidence intervals (CIs) have often been used in the literature but in a stationary context, separately and without detailed comparison. The extreme value theory is often used to assess risks in a context of climate change. It provides an accurate indication of distributions describing the frequency of occurrence of TEs. However, in an NS context, the notion of the return period is not easily interpretable. For instance, to predict a high return level (RL) in a future year, time-varying distributions must be used and compared. This study examines the performance of a new concept to predict RLs in an NS context and compares three methods for constructing the associated CIs (delta, profile likelihood, and parametric bootstrap). The present work takes up the concept of integrated return periods that define the T-year RL as the level for which the expected number of events in a T-year period is one and proposes a new method based on conditional predictions that is useful for predicting high RLs of extreme events in the near future (the 100-year RL in the year 2030, for instance). The daily maximum temperature (DMT) observed at the Orange Station in France was used as a case study. Several trend models were compared and a new likelihood-based method to detect breaks in TEs is proposed. The analyses were conducted assuming the time-varying Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The concepts have been implemented in a software package (Non-Stationary Generalized Extreme Value (NSGEV)). The application demonstrates that the RL estimates for NS situations can be quite different from those corresponding to stationary conditions. Overall, the results suggest that the NS analysis can be helpful in making a more appropriate assessment of the risk for periodic safety reviews during the life of a nuclear power plant (NPP). Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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18 pages, 6810 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Dynamical Linkage of Atmospheric Blocking to Drought, Heatwave and Urban Heat Island in Southeastern US: A Multi-Scale Case Study

by Li Dong, Chandana Mitra, Seth Greer and Ethan Burt

Atmosphere 2018, 9(1), 33; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9010033 - 22 Jan 2018

Cited by 35 | Viewed by 6809

Abstract

Atmospheric blocking is a long standing structure stalled in the mid-troposphere which is often associated with extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, flood and cold air outbreak. A striking atmospheric blocking is identified to persist over the US during 13–17 August 2007, [...] Read more.

Atmospheric blocking is a long standing structure stalled in the mid-troposphere which is often associated with extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, flood and cold air outbreak. A striking atmospheric blocking is identified to persist over the US during 13–17 August 2007, exacerbating the existing drought over the Southeastern US. This pronounced blocking event not only intensified the concurrent drought conditions, but also led to a record-breaking heatwave over the Southeast of the US. The excessive heat observed during this heatwave is attributable to the subsidence-associated adiabatic warming as well as the dry-and-warm air advection over Alabama and the neighboring states. At the local scale, we choose Birmingham, AL, as the study area for exploring the blocking influence on urban heat island. Based on the remote sensing data, the surface (skin) urban heat island is found to be 8

^{\circ}

C in this area on the block-onset day. This provides partial evidences that the surface urban heat island intensity is likely amplified by the blocking-induced heat waves. The present work provides a unique case study in which blocking, drought, heatwave and urban heat island all occur concurrently, and interplay across a spectrum of spatial scales. We conclude that atmospheric blocking is capable of reinforcing droughts, initiating heatwaves, and probably amplifying the urban heat island intensity during the concurrent period. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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7234 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Exceptionally Cold January of 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula: A Climatological and Synoptic Analysis

by Christina Anagnostopoulou, Konstantia Tolika, Georgia Lazoglou and Panagiotis Maheras

Atmosphere 2017, 8(12), 252; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8120252 - 15 Dec 2017

Cited by 40 | Viewed by 5224

Abstract

An exceptionally cold episode occurred in January 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula. Analysis of historical records showed that it was one of the coldest extreme episodes. Even though the low temperatures of January 2017 did not break previous low records for all stations, [...] Read more.

An exceptionally cold episode occurred in January 2017 over the Balkan Peninsula. Analysis of historical records showed that it was one of the coldest extreme episodes. Even though the low temperatures of January 2017 did not break previous low records for all stations, the long duration was quite extreme, resulting in strong socioeconomic impacts in the region of interest. The 10-year to 100-year return values of minimum temperatures were calculated based on block maxima method and the maximum likelihood estimates. The estimated return periods of the absolute minimum temperature are approximately 15 or 20 years for almost all stations. For only one station, the absolute minimum temperature of January 2017 might happen once in every 300 years according to the return level results. Moreover, the extreme cold episode over the Balkans during the period of 5 January 2017 to 12 January 2017 was associated with a significant outbreak of arctic air masses into eastern–central Europe and the Balkans and a cutoff low at the level of 500 hPa over the region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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5222 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Spatial and Temporal Variation of Temperature in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau during 1971–2015

by Zhaochen Liu, Meixue Yang, Guoning Wan and Xuejia Wang

Atmosphere 2017, 8(11), 214; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110214 - 9 Nov 2017

Cited by 20 | Viewed by 4818

Abstract

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is well known as “The Third Pole”, is of great importance to climate change in East Asia, and even the whole world. In this paper, we selected the monthly temperature (including the monthly mean and the maximum and [...] Read more.

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is well known as “The Third Pole”, is of great importance to climate change in East Asia, and even the whole world. In this paper, we selected the monthly temperature (including the monthly mean and the maximum and minimum temperature) during 1971–2015 from 88 meteorological stations on the TP. The data were tested and corrected by using Penalized Maximal F Test (PMFT) based on RHtest. Afterwards, based on the Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed the seasonal and time-interval characteristics on each station in detail. The results show that the TP has experienced significant warming during 1971–2015. When comparing the selected elements, the warming rate of minimum temperature (T_min) is the largest, the mean temperature (T_mean) comes second, and the maximum temperature (T_max) is the smallest. The warming trends in four seasons are significant, and the highest warming rate occurs in winter. The warming trend on the TP has a prominent spatial difference, with a large warming rate on the eastern parts and a small one on the central regions. In different seasons, the warming trends on the TP have different characteristics in the time interval. Since 1998, the warming rate in spring increased markedly, spring has displaced winter as the season with the highest warming rate recently. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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4759 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Historical Trends and Variability in Heat Waves in the United Kingdom

by Michael G. Sanderson, Theo Economou, Kate H. Salmon and Sarah E. O. Jones

Atmosphere 2017, 8(10), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8100191 - 30 Sep 2017

Cited by 25 | Viewed by 7772

Abstract

Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 [...] Read more.

Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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1679 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Increasing Heatwave Hazards in the Southeastern European Union Capitals

by Marco Morabito, Alfonso Crisci, Alessandro Messeri, Gianni Messeri, Giulio Betti, Simone Orlandini, Antonio Raschi and Giampiero Maracchi

Atmosphere 2017, 8(7), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8070115 - 30 Jun 2017

Cited by 54 | Viewed by 10644

Abstract

Heatwaves (HWs) are one of the “natural” hazards with the greatest impact worldwide in terms of mortality and economic losses, and their effects may be exacerbated in large urban areas. For these reasons, more detailed analyses of urban HW trends represent a priority [...] Read more.

Heatwaves (HWs) are one of the “natural” hazards with the greatest impact worldwide in terms of mortality and economic losses, and their effects may be exacerbated in large urban areas. For these reasons, more detailed analyses of urban HW trends represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, HW trends were investigated during the warmest period of the year (May–September) by using a slightly improved version of the EuroHEAT HW definition applied on long meteorological time-series (36-year period, 1980–2015) collected by weather stations located in the capitals of the 28 European Union member countries. Comparisons between two 18-year sub-periods (1980–1997 vs. 1998–2015) were carried out and a city-specific HW hazard index (HWHI), accounting for the main HW characteristics, was proposed. Most of the capitals revealed significant positive trends of the majority of HW hazard characteristics and substantial HWHI increases were observed during the sub-period 1998–2015, especially in the central-eastern and southeastern cities. Conversely, minor HWHI increases were observed in most of the northern capitals and opposite situations were even observed in several northern and especially southwestern cities. The results of this study represent a support for planning urban HW-related mitigation and adaptation strategies with the priority given to the southeastern cities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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1571 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Joint Link between Extreme Temperatures, Precipitation and Climate Indices in Winter in the Three Hydroclimate Regions of Southern Quebec

by Ali A. Assani and Nadjet Guerfi

Atmosphere 2017, 8(4), 75; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8040075 - 12 Apr 2017

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4910

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between four climate variables (maximum and minimum extreme temperatures, rainfall and snowfall) measured in winter (December to March) at 17 stations from 1950 to 2000 in the three hydroclimate regions of southern Quebec, and six seasonal climate indices using [...] Read more.

We analyze the relationship between four climate variables (maximum and minimum extreme temperatures, rainfall and snowfall) measured in winter (December to March) at 17 stations from 1950 to 2000 in the three hydroclimate regions of southern Quebec, and six seasonal climate indices using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and the copula method. This analysis yielded these major results: (1) extreme temperatures are not correlated with the amount of winter rain or snow in southern Quebec; (2) winter seasonal climate indices show better correlations with climate variables than do fall climate indices; (3) winter extreme temperatures are best correlated (positive correlation) with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the eastern region, but show a negative correlation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the southwestern region; (4) the total amount of winter snow is best correlated (negative correlation) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the three hydroclimate regions; (5) the total amount of winter rain is best (negatively) correlated with PDO in the eastern region, but shows a positive correlation with AO in the southeast region. Finally, the copula method revealed very little change in the dependence between climate indices and climate variables in the three hydroclimate regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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475 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effect of Missing Data on Estimation of the Impact of Heat Waves: Methodological Concerns for Public Health Practice

by Emily Leary, Linda J. Young, Melissa M. Jordan and Chris DuClos

Atmosphere 2017, 8(4), 70; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8040070 - 4 Apr 2017

Viewed by 4337

Abstract

(1) Background: To demonstrate the potential effects of missing exposure data and model choice on public health conclusions concerning the impact of heat waves on heat-related morbidity. (2) Methods: Using four different methods to impute missing exposure data, four statistical models (case-crossover, time-series, [...] Read more.

(1) Background: To demonstrate the potential effects of missing exposure data and model choice on public health conclusions concerning the impact of heat waves on heat-related morbidity. (2) Methods: Using four different methods to impute missing exposure data, four statistical models (case-crossover, time-series, zero-inflated, and truncated models) are compared. The methods are used to relate heat waves, based on heat index, and heat-related morbidities for Florida from 2005–2012. (3) Results: Truncated models using maximum daily heat index, imputed using spatio-temporal methods, provided the best model fit of regional and statewide heat-related morbidity, outperforming the commonly used case-crossover and time-series analysis methods. (4) Conclusions: The extent of missing exposure data, the method used to impute missing exposure data and the statistical model chosen can influence statistical inference. Further, using a statewide truncated negative binomial model, statistically significant associations between heat-related morbidity and regional heat index effects were identified. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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3252 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Recent Enhanced Seasonal Temperature Contrast in Japan from Large Ensemble High-Resolution Climate Simulations

by Yukiko Imada, Shuhei Maeda, Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Ryo Mizuta, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto

Atmosphere 2017, 8(3), 57; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8030057 - 17 Mar 2017

Cited by 29 | Viewed by 9584

Abstract

Since the late 1990s, land surface temperatures over Japan have increased during the summer and autumn, while global mean temperatures have not risen in this duration (i.e., the global warming hiatus). In contrast, winter and spring temperatures in Japan have decreased. To assess [...] Read more.

Since the late 1990s, land surface temperatures over Japan have increased during the summer and autumn, while global mean temperatures have not risen in this duration (i.e., the global warming hiatus). In contrast, winter and spring temperatures in Japan have decreased. To assess the impact of both global warming and global-scale decadal variability on this enhanced seasonal temperature contrast, we analyzed the outputs of 100 ensemble simulations of historical and counterfactual non-warming climate simulations conducted using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Our simulations showed that atmospheric fields impacted by the La Nina-like conditions associated with Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) have predominantly contributed to the seasonal temperature contrast over Japan. Compared with the impact of negative IPO, the influence of global warming on seasonal temperature contrasts in Japan was small. In addition, atmospheric variability has also had a large impact on temperatures in Japan over a decadal timescale. The results of this study suggest a future increase in heatwave risk during the summer and autumn when La Nina-like decadal phenomena and atmospheric perturbations coincide over a background of global warming. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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3939 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Temperature and Heat-Related Mortality Trends in the Sonoran and Mojave Desert Region

by Polioptro F. Martinez-Austria and Erick R. Bandala

Atmosphere 2017, 8(3), 53; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8030053 - 3 Mar 2017

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 8971

Abstract

Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico) and one city within the [...] Read more.

Extreme temperatures and heat wave trends in five cities within the Sonoran Desert region (e.g., Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona, in the United States and Ciudad Obregon and San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora; and Mexicali, Baja California, in Mexico) and one city within the Mojave Desert region (e.g., Las Vegas, Nevada) were assessed using field data collected from 1950 to 2014. Instead of being selected by watershed, the cities were selected because they are part of the same arid climatic region. The data were analyzed for maximum temperature increases and the trends were confirmed statistically using Spearman’s nonparametric test. Temperature trends were correlated with the mortality information related with extreme heat events in the region. The results showed a clear trend of increasing maximum temperatures during the months of June, July, and August for five of the six cities and statically confirmed using Spearman’s rho values. Las Vegas was the only city where the temperature increase was not confirmed using Spearman’s test, probably because it is geographically located outside of the Sonoran Desert or because of its proximity to the Hoover Dam. The relationship between mortality and temperature was analyzed for the cities of Mexicali, Mexico and Phoenix. Arizona. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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12636 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Temporal Variability of Summer Temperature Extremes in Poland

by Agnieszka Wypych, Agnieszka Sulikowska, Zbigniew Ustrnul and Danuta Czekierda

Atmosphere 2017, 8(3), 51; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8030051 - 2 Mar 2017

Cited by 29 | Viewed by 7319

Abstract

The aim of the study is to estimate the trend in summer maximum air temperature extremes in Poland during the period 1951–2015 by demonstrating the changes in the magnitude of temperature anomalies, temperature “surplus”, as well as the area influenced by extreme temperature [...] Read more.

The aim of the study is to estimate the trend in summer maximum air temperature extremes in Poland during the period 1951–2015 by demonstrating the changes in the magnitude of temperature anomalies, temperature “surplus”, as well as the area influenced by extreme temperature occurrence. To express the latter two variables, daily maps of maximum air temperature were created to calculate the total area affected by temperature extremes. To combine the effect of spatial extent and temperature anomaly, an Extremity Index was introduced. The results confirmed an increase in summer maximum air temperature of about 0.4 °C per 10 years, evidenced also in the increase of summer extremeness. Positive anomalies have dominated since the 1990s, with the largest anomalies occurring during the summers of 1992, 1994, 2010 and finally 2015, the most exceptional summer during the analyzed period. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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13255 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Synoptic Conditions Generating Heat Waves and Warm Spells in Romania

by Lucian Sfîcă, Adina-Eliza Croitoru, Iulian Iordache and Antoniu-Flavius Ciupertea

Atmosphere 2017, 8(3), 50; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8030050 - 1 Mar 2017

Cited by 48 | Viewed by 8702

Abstract

Heat waves and warm spells are extreme meteorological events that generate a significant number of casualties in temperate regions, as well as outside of temperate regions. For the purpose of this paper, heat waves and warm spells were identified based on daily maximum [...] Read more.

Heat waves and warm spells are extreme meteorological events that generate a significant number of casualties in temperate regions, as well as outside of temperate regions. For the purpose of this paper, heat waves and warm spells were identified based on daily maximum temperatures recorded at 27 weather stations located in Romania over a 55-year period (1961–2015). The intensity threshold was the 90th percentile, and the length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. We analyzed 111 heat wave and warm spell events totaling 423 days. The classification of synoptic conditions was based on daily reanalysis at three geopotential levels and on the online version of a backward trajectories model. The main findings are that there are two major types of genetic conditions. These were identified as: (i) radiative heat waves and warm spells (type A) generated by warming the air mass due to high amounts of radiation which was found dominant in warm season; and (ii) advective heat waves and warm spells (type B) generated mainly by warm air mass advection which prevails in winter and transition seasons. These major types consist of two and three sub-types, respectively. The results could become a useful tool for weather forecasters in order to better predict the occurrence of heat waves and warm spells. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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5127 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Trends of Heat Waves and Cold Spells over 1951–2015 in Guangzhou, China

by Rong Zhang, Zhao-Yue Chen, Chun-Quan Ou and Yan Zhuang

Atmosphere 2017, 8(2), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8020037 - 14 Feb 2017

Cited by 26 | Viewed by 6439

Abstract

The global climate has changed significantly, characterized by the warming of the surface air temperature, which seriously affects public health. We examined the trends of extreme temperatures, heat waves and cold spells in a subtropical city of Guangzhou, China, during 1951–2015. Specifically, the [...] Read more.

The global climate has changed significantly, characterized by the warming of the surface air temperature, which seriously affects public health. We examined the trends of extreme temperatures, heat waves and cold spells in a subtropical city of Guangzhou, China, during 1951–2015. Specifically, the relationship between ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) events and heat waves/cold spells was discussed. The results of linear regression showed the annual mean temperature and extreme warm days increased (0.14 °C/decade and 6.26 days/decade) while extreme cold days decreased significantly (1.77 days/decade). Heat waves were more frequent, longer lasting and had stronger intensity over the past 65 years. In addition, the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves were correlated with annual Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming (IOBW), while there were no significant differences in the characteristics of heat waves among an El Niño year, a La Niña year and a Neutral year. In contrast, neither significant trend nor association with ENSO events was observed for cold spells. In conclusion, our study indicated an obvious increasing trend for all aspects of heat waves in Guangzhou, China. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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10670 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Circulation Conditions’ Effect on the Occurrence of Heat Waves in Western and Southwestern Europe

by Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk, Marek Półrolniczak and Ewa Bednorz

Atmosphere 2017, 8(2), 31; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8020031 - 7 Feb 2017

Cited by 37 | Viewed by 6846

Abstract

This article aims to describe the occurrence of heat waves in Western and Southwestern Europe in the period 1976–2015 and determining pressure patterns that cause a persistence of hot days. A hot day was defined as a day on which the daily maximum [...] Read more.

This article aims to describe the occurrence of heat waves in Western and Southwestern Europe in the period 1976–2015 and determining pressure patterns that cause a persistence of hot days. A hot day was defined as a day on which the daily maximum air temperature was higher than the 95th annual percentile; and a heat wave was recognised as a sequence of at least five days of the abovementioned category. In the discussed multiannual period, this threshold ranged from 23.5 °C in Brest to 38.9 °C in Seville. Within the analysed area, there were from 14 (Bilbao) to 54 (Montélimar) heat waves observed. The longest heat wave took place in 2003 in Nice and lasted 49 days (14 July–31 August). The occurrence of heat waves within the analysed area was related to the ridge of high pressure located over the area of the study, providing strong solar radiation flux due to cloudlessness or a small cloud cover. Positive SLP, z500 hPa and T850 anomalies occurred over the majority of the research area. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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6524 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Changes in Temperature Extremes in China Using PRECIS

by Yujing Zhang, Liang Fu, Jie Pan and Yinlong Xu

Atmosphere 2017, 8(1), 15; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8010015 - 17 Jan 2017

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 5907

Abstract

Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes [...] Read more.

Temperature extremes can cause disastrous impacts on ecological and social economic systems. China is very sensitive to climate change, as its warming rate exceeds that of the global mean level. This paper focused on the spatial and temporal changes of the temperature extremes characterized by the 95th percentile of maximum temperature (TX95), the 5th percentile of the minimum temperature (TN5), high-temperature days (HTD) and low-temperature days (LTD). The daily maximum and minimum temperatures generated by PRECIS under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used in the research. The results show that: (1) Model simulation data can reproduce the spatial distribution features of the maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) as well as that of the extreme temperature indices; (2) By the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), both the Tmax and Tmin are warmer than the baseline level (1961–1990) in China and the eight sub-regions. However, there are regional differences in the asymmetrical warming features, as the Tmin warms more than the Tmax in the northern part of China and the Tibetan Plateau, while the Tmax warms more than the Tmin in the southern part of China; (3) The frequency of the warm extremes would become more usual, as the HTD characterized by the present-day threshold would increase by 106%, 196% and 346%, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, while the cold extremes characterized by the LTD would become less frequent by the end of the 21st century, decreasing by 75%, 90% and 98% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The southern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau respond sensitively to changes in both the hot and cold extremes, suggesting its higher likelihood to suffer from climate warming; (4) The intensity of the warm (cold) extremes would increase (decrease) significantly, characterized by the changes in the TX95 (TN5) by the end of the 21st century, and the magnitude of the increase in the TN5 is larger than that of the TX95 in the national mean value. The changes in both the TX95 and TN5 are larger under the higher versus weaker emission scenario, indicating that it is essential to reduce the GHG emissions and take adaptation measures in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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680 KiB

Open AccessPerspective

Impact of Cold Waves and Heat Waves on the Energy Production Sector

by Juan A. Añel, Manuel Fernández-González, Xavier Labandeira, Xiral López-Otero and Laura De la Torre

Atmosphere 2017, 8(11), 209; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110209 - 27 Oct 2017

Cited by 92 | Viewed by 14847

Abstract

Cold and heat waves represent a significant problem for the electricity generation sector. The disruptions cold and heat waves can cause in power production are beyond their consumption impacts through, for instance, higher peak demand. Unexpected stops at thermal or nuclear power plants [...] Read more.

Cold and heat waves represent a significant problem for the electricity generation sector. The disruptions cold and heat waves can cause in power production are beyond their consumption impacts through, for instance, higher peak demand. Unexpected stops at thermal or nuclear power plants by excessively high-temperature water constitute clear examples of this. In this invited paper, we use past case studies to analyze the impact of these kinds of events on power production. Subsequently we discuss how events of this nature may evolve over the future in view of their association to climate change. Although the review is not exhaustive, we do expose some ideas that may be relevant for decision making in this area Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Extremes and Heat/Cold Waves)

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