Ecological Modeling for Adaptation to Climate Change

A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154). This special issue belongs to the section "Climate and Environment".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 June 2025 | Viewed by 1444

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics, Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada
Interests: biodiversity; climate change; climate models; conservation; ecosystems; forest biology; genetics; genomics; modelling
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate is the primary factor regulating the geographic distributions of many plant and animal species. Many species on Earth are adapted to a range of climatic conditions (i.e., climatic niche). Unprecedented rapid climate change is causing a mismatch between the climate that a species historically adapted to and the climate that the species will experience in the future and compromising the health and functions of our ecosystems. To address such challenges, scientists and researchers have turned to ecological niche models as powerful tools. Ecological niche models help assess how climate change can impact species and ecotypes, projecting potential shifts in their distributions in various climate scenarios. By simulating these changes, researchers can gain valuable insights into the vulnerabilities of different species and identify potential areas of concern for conservation efforts. These models also provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptive strategies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on biodiversity.

The aim of this Special Issue is to highlight the importance of ecological niche models in the context of climate change and its impacts on species and ecosystems. This issue seeks to present cutting-edge research on the development, refinement, and application of these models, emphasizing their role in understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change. This subject aligns perfectly with the scope of our journal, which focuses on publishing high-quality research in the field of climate processes of our planet, covering all scales and involving modelling and observation methods. By featuring this Special Issue, we aim to provide a platform for researchers to share their advancements in ecological niche modeling and its implications for biodiversity conservation and management.

This Special Issue welcomes manuscripts that delve into various aspects of ecological niche models concerning climate change impacts on species and ecosystems. Suggested themes and article types for submissions include, but are not limited to:

  1. Novel approaches in ecological niche modeling for climate change predictions;
  2. Developing climate variables to facilitate ecological niche modeling;;
  3. Case studies investigating the projected distribution shifts of specific plant and animal species in response to climate change;
  4. Integrating ecological niche models with other tools, such as remote sensing data, to enhance accuracy and applicability;
  5. Developing adaptive management strategies based on ecological niche model predictions for species conservation;
  6. Reviews or meta-analyses summarizing the current state of knowledge in ecological niche modeling and its relevance to climate change research.

Dr. Tongli Wang
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • climate data
  • climate niche
  • bioclimate envelope
  • species distribution
  • adaptation

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

16 pages, 12600 KiB  
Article
Species Distribution Modeling of Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758) Under Current and Future Climates, with a Special Focus on Latvia and Ukraine
by Volodymyr Tytar, Iryna Kozynenko, Mihails Pupins, Arturs Škute, Andris Čeirāns, Jean-Yves Georges and Oksana Nekrasova
Climate 2024, 12(11), 184; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12110184 - 11 Nov 2024
Viewed by 582
Abstract
This study assesses the impact of climate change on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus, which transmits Lyme disease, a growing public health concern. Utilizing ensemble models from the R package ‘flexsdm’ and climate data from WorldClim, ENVIREM, and CliMond, we project habitat [...] Read more.
This study assesses the impact of climate change on the distribution of Ixodes ricinus, which transmits Lyme disease, a growing public health concern. Utilizing ensemble models from the R package ‘flexsdm’ and climate data from WorldClim, ENVIREM, and CliMond, we project habitat suitability changes for the focus species. The models, validated against Lyme disease incidence rates, predict a 1.5-fold increase in suitable habitats in Latvia, contrasted with a 4.5-fold decrease in suitable habitats within Ukraine over the coming decades. SHAP values are analyzed to determine the most influential climatic features affecting tick distribution, providing insights for future vector control and disease prevention strategies. The optimal bioclimatic environment for I. ricinus seems to be an intricate balance of moderate temperatures, high humidity, and sufficient rainfall (bio7, 14, 18, 29). Also, radiation during the wettest quarter (bio24) significantly influences tick distribution in northern countries. This implies an increased presence of ticks in Scandinavian countries, Baltic states, etc. These findings largely coincide with our projections regarding bioclimatic suitability for ticks in Latvia and Ukraine. These shifts reflect broader patterns of vector redistribution driven by global warming, highlighting the urgent need to adapt public health planning to the evolving landscape of vector-borne diseases under climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Ecological Modeling for Adaptation to Climate Change)
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