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Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty)

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A special issue of Forests (ISSN 1999-4907). This special issue belongs to the section "Forest Ecology and Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 March 2020) | Viewed by 42017

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Dr. Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo

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Guest Editor

Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CTFC), Ctra. De St Llorenç de Morunys km 2. Solsona. Spain
Head of program / Landscape Dynamics and Biodiversity
Interests: forest planning; decision support systems; climate change impacts; conservation planning
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Due to their long-term natures, forests are particularly affected by climatic changes. Natural adaptation processes are unlikely to keep up with the speed of climatic changes in the next few decades. Particularly, extreme climatic events, such as periods of drought or strong winds, can cause extensive damage, and they may also reduce inertia and create options for new successional trajectories. However, we are facing novel conditions at local or regional scales, which are likely to be translated into new qualities of forest ecosystems. The driving mechanisms that are already going on and are expected to control future forests need to be better understood.

We encourage studies including experimental studies, models, to contribute to this Special Issue in order to promote knowledge on adaptive strategies for the preservation, management, and future development of forest ecosystems. This includes, growth and yield models, decision making models and decision support systems.

Dr. Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo
Guest Editor

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Keywords

Forest Management
Decision Making models
Decision support tools
Climate Change
Disturbances
Biodiversity
Ecosystem Services

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Published Papers (10 papers)

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Research

23 pages, 2008 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

by Christoph Kogler and Peter Rauch

Forests 2020, 11(4), 396; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11040396 - 2 Apr 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 5262

Abstract

Wood supply chain performance suffers from risks intensified by more frequent and extreme natural calamities such as windstorms, bark beetle infestations, and ice-break treetops. In order to limit further damage and wood value loss after natural calamities, high volumes of salvage wood have to be rapidly transported out of the forest. In these cases, robust decision support and coordinated management strategies based on advanced contingency planning are needed. Consequently, this study introduces a contingency planning toolbox consisting of a discrete event simulation model setup for analyses on an operational level, strategies to cope with challenging business cases, as well as transport templates to analyze outcomes of decisions before real, costly, and long-lasting changes are made. The toolbox enables wood supply managers to develop contingency plans to prepare for increasing risk events and more frequent natural disturbances due to climate change. Crucial key performance indicators including truck to wagon ratios, truck and wagon utilization, worktime coordination, truck queuing times, terminal transhipment volume, and required stockyard are presented for varying delivery time, transport tonnage, and train pick-up scenarios. The strategy BEST FIT was proven to provide robust solutions which saves truck and train resources, as well as keeps transhipment volume on a high level and stockyard and queuing time on a low level. Permission granted for increased truck transport tonnages was evaluated as a potential means to reduce truck trips, if working times and train pick-ups are coordinated. Furthermore, the practical applicability for contingency planning is demonstrated by highly relevant business cases such as limited wagon or truck availability, defined delivery quota, terminal selection, queuing time reduction, or scheduled stock accumulation. Further research should focus on the modeling and management of log quality deterioration and the resulting wood value loss caused by challenging transport and storage conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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19 pages, 4083 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Responses of Korean Pine to Proactive Managements under Climate Change

by Kai Liu, Hongshi He, Wenru Xu, Haibo Du, Shengwei Zong, Chao Huang, Miaomiao Wu, Xinyuan Tan and Yu Cong

Forests 2020, 11(3), 263; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11030263 - 27 Feb 2020

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2843

Abstract

Proactive managements, such as the resistant and the adaptive treatments, have been proposed to cope with the uncertainties of future climates. However, quantifying the uncertainties of forest response to proactive managements is challenging. Korean pine is an ecologically and economically important tree species in the temperate forests of Northeast China. Its dominance has evidently decreased due to excessive harvesting in the past decades. Understanding the responses of Korean pine to proactive managements under the future climates is important. In this study, we evaluated the range of responses of Korean pine to proactive managements under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios from four General Circulation Models (GCMs). We coupled an ecosystem process-based model, LINKAGES, and a forest landscape model, LANDIS PRO, to simulate scenarios of management and climate change combinations. Our results showed that the resistant and the adaptive treatment scenarios increased Korean pine importance (by 14.2% and 42.9% in importance value), dominance (biomass increased by 9.2% and 25.5%), and regeneration (abundance <10 years old increased by 286.6% and 841.2%) throughout the simulation. Results indicated that proactive managements promoted the adaptability of Korean pine to climate change. Our results showed that the variations of Korean pine response to climate change increased (ranging from 0% to 5.8% for importance value, 0% to 4.3% for biomass, and 0% to 85.4% for abundance) throughout the simulation across management scenarios. Our result showed that regeneration dictated the uncertainties of Korean pine response to climate change with a lag effect. We found that the effects of proactive managements were site-specific, which was probably influenced by the competition between Korean pine and the rare and protected broadleaf tree species. We also found that the adaptive treatment was more likely to prompt Korean pine to migrate into its suitable habitats and promoted it to better cope with climate change. Thus, the adaptive treatment is proposed for Korean pine restoration under future climates. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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17 pages, 1149 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Progressive Hedging Approach to Solve Harvest Scheduling Problem under Climate Change

by Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, Cristóbal Pais, Joanna Bachmatiuk, Susana Barreiro and Andres Weintraub

Forests 2020, 11(2), 224; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11020224 - 17 Feb 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3422

Abstract

Due to the long time horizon typically characterizing forest planning, uncertainty plays an important role when developing forest management plans. Especially important is the uncertainty related to recently human-induced global warming since it has a clear impact on forest capacity to contribute to biogenic and anthropogenic ecosystem services. If the forest manager ignores uncertainty, the resulting forest management plan may be sub-optimal, in the best case. This paper presents a methodology to incorporate uncertainty due to climate change into forest management planning. Specifically, this paper addresses the problem of harvest planning, i.e., defining which stands are to be cut in each planning period in order to maximize expected net revenues, considering several climate change scenarios. This study develops a solution approach for a planning problem for a eucalyptus forest with 1000 stands located in central Portugal where expected future conditions are anticipated by considering a set of climate scenarios. The model including all the constraints that link all the scenarios and spatial adjacency constraints leads to a very large problem that can only be solved by decomposing it into scenarios. For this purpose, we solve the problem using Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm, which decomposes the problem into scenario sub-problems easier to solve. To analyze the performance of PH versus the use of the extensive form (EF), we solve several instances of the original problem using both approaches. Results show that PH outperforms the EF in both solving time and final optimality gap. In addition, the use of PH allows to solve the most difficult problems while the commercial solvers are not able to solve the EF. The approach presented allows the planner to develop more robust management plans that incorporate the uncertainty due to climate change in their plans. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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17 pages, 2882 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Using Count Data Models to Predict Epiphytic Bryophyte Recruitment in Schima superba Gardn. et Champ. Plantations in Urban Forests

by Dexian Zhao, Zhenkai Sun, Cheng Wang, Zezhou Hao, Baoqiang Sun, Qin Zuo, Wenjun Duan, Qi Bian, Zitong Bai, Kaiyue Wei and Nancai Pei

Forests 2020, 11(2), 174; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11020174 - 5 Feb 2020

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3009

Abstract

Epiphytic bryophytes are known to perform essential ecosystem functions, but their sensitivity to environmental quality and change makes their survival and development vulnerable to global changes, especially habitat loss in urban environments. Fortunately, extensive urban tree planting programs worldwide have had a positive effect on the colonization and development of epiphytic bryophytes. However, how epiphytic bryophytes occur and grow on planted trees remain poorly known, especially in urban environments. In the present study, we surveyed the distribution of epiphytic bryophytes on tree trunks in a Schima superba Gardn. et Champ. urban plantation and then developed count data models, including tree characteristics, stand characteristics, human disturbance, terrain factors, and microclimate to predict the drivers on epiphytic bryophyte recruitment. Different counting models (Poisson, Negative binomial, Zero-inflated Poisson, Zero-inflated negative binomial, Hurdle-Poisson, Hurdle-negative binomial) were compared for a data analysis to account for the zero-inflated data structure. Our results show that (i) the shaded side and base of tree trunks were the preferred locations for bryophytes to colonize in urban plantations, (ii) both hurdle models performed well in modeling epiphytic bryophyte recruitment, and (iii) both hurdle models showed that the tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), leaf area index (LAI), and altitude (ALT) promoted the occurrence of epiphytic bryophytes, but the height under branch and interference intensity of human activities opposed the occurrence of epiphytic bryophytes. Specifically, DBH and LAI had positive effects on the species richness recruitment count; similarly, DBH and ALT had positive effects on the abundance recruitment count, but slope had a negative effect. To promote the occurrence and growth of epiphytic bryophytes in urban tree planting programs, we suggest that managers regulate suitable habitats by cultivating and protecting large trees, promoting canopy closure, and controlling human disturbance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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25 pages, 3900 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

by Louis R. Iverson, Anantha M. Prasad, Matthew P. Peters and Stephen N. Matthews

Forests 2019, 10(11), 989; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10110989 - 6 Nov 2019

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 4290

Abstract

We modeled and combined outputs for 125 tree species for the eastern United States, using habitat suitability and colonization potential models along with an evaluation of adaptation traits. These outputs allowed, for the first time, the compilation of tree species’ current and future potential for each unit of 55 national forests and grasslands and 469 1 × 1 degree grids across the eastern United States. A habitat suitability model, a migration simulation model, and an assessment based on biological and disturbance factors were used with United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to evaluate species potential to migrate or infill naturally into suitable habitats over the next 100 years. We describe a suite of variables, by species, for each unique geographic unit, packaged as summary tables describing current abundance, potential future change in suitable habitat, adaptability, and capability to cope with the changing climate, and colonization likelihood over 100 years. This resulting synthesis and summation effort, culminating over two decades of work, provides a detailed data set that incorporates habitat quality, land cover, and dispersal potential, spatially constrained, for nearly all the tree species of the eastern United States. These tables and maps provide an estimate of potential species trends out 100 years, intended to deliver managers and publics with practical tools to reduce the vast set of decisions before them as they proactively manage tree species in the face of climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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20 pages, 6317 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Decision Support Tool for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Multiple Ecosystem Services

by Irina Cristal, Aitor Ameztegui, Jose Ramon González-Olabarria and Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo

Forests 2019, 10(5), 440; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10050440 - 21 May 2019

Cited by 18 | Viewed by 6632

Abstract

In the climate change era, forest managers are challenged to use innovative tools to encourage a sustained provision of goods and services. Many decision support tools (DSTs), developed to address global changes in forest management practices, reflect the complexity of the scientific knowledge produced, a fact that could make it difficult for practitioners to understand and adopt them. Acknowledging the importance of knowledge transfer to forestry practitioners, this study describes a user-centric decision support software tool, aiming to assess forest management and climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services (ESs) at a stand level. SORTIE-ND, a spatially explicit tree-level simulator for projecting stand dynamics that is sensitive to climate change, is encapsulated into the decision support tool and used as the simulation engine for stand development. Linking functions are implemented to evaluate ecosystem services and potential risks, and decision support is provided in form of interactive 2D and 3D visualizations. Five main components were identified to delineate the workflow and to shape the decision support tool: the information base, the alternative generator, the forest simulator, the ecosystem services calculator, and the visualization component. In order to improve the interaction design and general user satisfaction, the usability of the system was tested at an early stage of the development. While we have specifically focused on a management-oriented approach through user-centric interface design, the utilization of the product is likely to be of importance in facilitating education in the field of forest management. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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18 pages, 3204 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessing Hydrological Ecosystem Services in a Rubber-Dominated Watershed under Scenarios of Land Use and Climate Change

by Kevin Thellmann, Reza Golbon, Marc Cotter, Georg Cadisch and Folkard Asch

Forests 2019, 10(2), 176; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10020176 - 19 Feb 2019

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4561

Abstract

Land use and climate change exert pressure on ecosystems and threaten the sustainable supply of ecosystem services (ESS). In Southeast-Asia, the shift from swidden farming to permanent cash crop systems has led to a wide range of impacts on ESS. Our study area, the Nabanhe Reserve in Yunnan province (PR China), saw the loss of extensive forest areas and the expansion of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) plantations. In this study, we model water yield and sediment export for a rubber-dominated watershed under multiple scenarios of land use and climate change in order to assess how both drivers influence the supply of these ESS. For this we use three stakeholder-validated land use scenarios, varying in their degree of rubber expansion and land management rules. As projected climate change varies remarkably between different climate models, we combined the land use scenarios with datasets of temperature and precipitation changes, derived from nine General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in order to model water yield and sediment export with InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs). Simulation results show that the effect of land use and land management decisions on water yield in Nabanhe Reserve are relatively minor (4% difference in water yield between land use scenarios), when compared to the effects that future climate change will exert on water yield (up to 15% increase or 13% decrease in water yield compared to the baseline climate). Changes in sediment export were more sensitive to land use change (15% increase or 64% decrease) in comparison to the effects of climate change (up to 10% increase). We conclude that in the future, particularly dry years may have a more pronounced effect on the water balance as the higher potential evapotranspiration increases the probability for periods of water scarcity, especially in the dry season. The method we applied can easily be transferred to regions facing comparable land use situations, as InVEST and the IPCC data are freely available. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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21 pages, 6678 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of Climate Change and Strong Anthropopressure on the Annual Growth of Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) Wood Growing in Eastern Poland

by Robert Kalbarczyk, Monika Ziemiańska, Anna Nieróbca and Joanna Dobrzańska

Forests 2018, 9(11), 661; https://doi.org/10.3390/f9110661 - 23 Oct 2018

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3765

Abstract

Changes in annual tree ring width (TRW) and its size depends not only on the changing climate and natural stress factors such as extreme air temperatures, shortages in rainfall and excess rainfall during the growing season, but also on anthropogenic stress, including chemical compounds emitted to the atmosphere or lowering of the groundwater table caused by the operations of plants with high environmental impact. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of meteorological conditions and anthropogenic factors on the size of annual growth of Scots pine tree-stands in the conditions of the climate of central-eastern Poland. On the basis of five created site chronologies in the vicinity of Zakłady Azotowe Puławy (nitrogen factories in Puławy) and using the moving correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis, a significant influence of temperature and precipitation conditions on the TRW size is proved. A significant, positive influence of air temperature on TRW was proved for the majority of chronologies created in the period of January–March, as well as in June, while it remained negative in May. The wide rings of Scots pines were formed when the precipitation of October and January (prior to the resumption of cambium activity) was lower than the average, and higher in April and in June–August. After including the anthropopressure factors in the regression equations, the description of the variability of the annual tree ring width was corrected. The coefficient of determination ranged from approx. 29% to even above 45% and was higher, on average by 10%, for all studied chronologies of Scots pine compared to the one calculated for constructed equations considering only meteorological conditions. The strength and direction of the impact of the independent variables (SO₂, NH₃, NO_x) analysed on TRW mainly depended on the distance from the plants, as well as on the direction of inflow of industrial pollution to the stands examined. In light of the proven climate changes in central and eastern Poland, the growth conditions of pine stands will most likely deteriorate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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13 pages, 1274 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Forest Management for Climate Change in New England and the Klamath Ecoregions: Motivations, Practices, and Barriers

by Robert M. Scheller and Rajan Parajuli

Forests 2018, 9(10), 626; https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100626 - 11 Oct 2018

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3669

Abstract

Understanding perceptions and attitudes of forest managers toward climate change and climate adaptive forest management is crucial, as they are expected to implement changes to forest resource management. We assessed the perceptions of forest managers toward climate adaptive forest management practices through a survey of forest managers working in private firms and public agencies in New England and the Klamath ecoregion (northern California and southwestern Oregon). We analyzed the motivations, actions, and potential barriers to action of forest managers toward climate adaptive forest management practices. Results suggest that managing for natural regeneration is the most common climate adaptive forest management approach considered by forest managers in both regions. Lack of information about the best strategies for reducing climate change risks, lack of education and awareness among the clients, and perceived client costs were forest managers’ primary barriers to climate adaptive management. Our findings suggest useful insights toward the policy and program design in climate adaptive forest management for both areas. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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15 pages, 2592 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Landscape Diversity for Reduced Risk of Insect Damage: A Case Study of Spruce Bud Scale in Latvia

by Endijs Bāders, Āris Jansons, Roberts Matisons, Didzis Elferts and Iveta Desaine

Forests 2018, 9(9), 545; https://doi.org/10.3390/f9090545 - 5 Sep 2018

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3515

Abstract

Spruce bud scale (Physokermes piceae (Schrnk.)) has gained attention due to recent outbreaks in the eastern Baltic Sea region—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. In the spring of 2010, it spread rapidly across Latvia, affecting large areas of Norway spruce stands. Therefore, the aim of our study was to assess the effects of landscape heterogeneity on the damage caused by spruce bud scale in Norway spruce stands. In this study, we evaluated landscape metrics for middle-aged (40 to 70 years old) Norway spruce-dominated stands (>70% of stand’s basal area) in four of the most affected forest massifs and two unaffected forest massifs. We used a binary logistic generalized linear mixed effects model (GLMMs) to assess the effect of environmental factors on the abundance of the spruce bud scale. Our results show that increased local diversity within 100 m of a forest patch apparently reduced the probability of spruce bud scale presence. We also found that the diversity within 1000 m of a patch was associated with an increased probability of spruce bud scale damage. A quantitative analysis of landscape metrics in our study indicated that greater landscape-scale diversity of stands may reduce insect damages. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adaptive Forest Management and Decision Making Models under Climate Change (Risk and Uncertainty))

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