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Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests
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Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests

A special issue of Forests (ISSN 1999-4907). This special issue belongs to the section "Forest Ecology and Management".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 March 2021) | Viewed by 27454

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Lee Frelich

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Guest Editor
Department of Forest Resources, Center for Forest Ecology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
Interests: climate change; disturbance ecology; invasive species; biodiversity conservation; temperate forests; boreal forests
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear colleagues,

Many forests around the world are close to biome edges (ecotones) which are likely to experience dramatic changes in vegetation, with warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Migration of tree species in poleward/higher elevation directions could lead to forests invading tundra, temperate forests replacing boreal forests, or tropical and subtropical forests replacing temperate forests. Forests could also be replaced by nonforest biomes such as grasslands, shrublands or deserts, in locations where the climate is expected to become too dry for tree cover. Forests welcomes submissions of reviews, observational, experimental or modeling studies to this Special Issue that examine: (1) current observations of forest change, (2) results of experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation, (3) forest response to projected future climate scenarios, (4) biotic factors that counteract or reinforce the effects of climate change on forest biome boundaries (e.g., diseases and pests, invasive species, herbivores), (5) landscape factors that interact with climate change to affect forest biome distribution (e.g., landform diversity, elevation, poleward-facing slopes, basins with cold air pooling, water bodies, distribution of soil and substrate types), (6) potential refugia for the current forest biome as the climate warms, and (7) conservation implications of expected forest biome changes. 

Dr. Lee Frelich
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • biome change
  • boreal forest
  • climate change
  • climate refugia
  • ecotone
  • forest biome
  • forest–landscape interactions
  • temperate forest
  • tropical forest

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

Jump to: Review

18 pages, 3536 KiB  
Article
Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis
by Xingzhuang Ye, Mingzhu Zhang, Qianyue Yang, Liqi Ye, Yipeng Liu, Guofang Zhang, Shipin Chen, Wenfeng Lai, Guowei Wen, Shiqun Zheng, Shaoning Ruan, Tianyu Zhang and Bao Liu
Forests 2022, 13(2), 257; https://doi.org/10.3390/f13020257 - 7 Feb 2022
Cited by 17 | Viewed by 3290
Abstract
Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in [...] Read more.
Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The Current highly suitable habitats were found in the Northeast Jiangxi, Eastern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the temperature factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. Mean Diurnal Range (Bio2), Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6), Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. In the next four periods, the suitable areas all migrated southward. Except for the RCP2.6-2070s, the highly suitable areas in the other three periods showed varying degrees of shrinkage. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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15 pages, 2847 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Montane Forests in the Peruvian Andes: Implications for Conservation Prioritization
by Vincent Bax, Augusto Castro-Nunez and Wendy Francesconi
Forests 2021, 12(3), 375; https://doi.org/10.3390/f12030375 - 21 Mar 2021
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 5079
Abstract
Future climate change will result in profound shifts in the distribution and abundance of biodiversity in the Tropical Andes, and poses a challenge to contemporary conservation planning in the region. However, currently it is not well understood where the impacts of climate disruption [...] Read more.
Future climate change will result in profound shifts in the distribution and abundance of biodiversity in the Tropical Andes, and poses a challenge to contemporary conservation planning in the region. However, currently it is not well understood where the impacts of climate disruption will be most severe and how conservation policy should respond. This study examines climate change impacts in the Peruvian Andes, with a specific focus on tropical montane forest ecosystems, which are particularly susceptible to climate change. Using an ensemble of classification models coupled with different climate change scenarios, we estimate high and low potential impacts on montane forest, by projecting which areas will become climatically unsuitable to support montane forest ecosystems by 2070. These projections are subsequently used to examine potential impacts on protected areas containing montane forest. The modeling output indicates that climate change will have a high potential impact on 58% of all montane forests, particularly in the elevation range between 800 and 1200 m.a.s.l. Furthermore, about 64% of montane forests located in protected areas will be exposed to high potential impact. These results highlight the need for Peru’s conservation institutions to incorporate climate change considerations into prevailing conservation plans and adaptation strategies. To adjust to climate change, the adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems in the Peruvian Andes should be enhanced through restorative and preventive conservation measures such as improving forest functions and mitigating deforestation and forest degradation pressures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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17 pages, 5420 KiB  
Article
Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change
by Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández, Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas, Diódoro Granados-Sánchez, Antonio Villanueva-Morales and Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Forests 2021, 12(2), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020119 - 22 Jan 2021
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 4465
Abstract
The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation [...] Read more.
The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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21 pages, 4732 KiB  
Article
Climate-Biome Envelope Shifts Create Enormous Challenges and Novel Opportunities for Conservation
by Ryan Toot, Lee E. Frelich, Ethan E. Butler and Peter B. Reich
Forests 2020, 11(9), 1015; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11091015 - 21 Sep 2020
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4621
Abstract
Research Highlights: We modeled climate-biome envelopes at high resolution in the Western Great Lakes Region for recent and future time-periods. The projected biome shifts, in conjunction with heterogeneous distribution of protected land, may create both great challenges for conservation of particular ecosystems and [...] Read more.
Research Highlights: We modeled climate-biome envelopes at high resolution in the Western Great Lakes Region for recent and future time-periods. The projected biome shifts, in conjunction with heterogeneous distribution of protected land, may create both great challenges for conservation of particular ecosystems and novel conservation opportunities. Background and Objectives: Climate change this century will affect the distribution and relative abundance of ecological communities against a mostly static background of protected land. We developed a climate-biome envelope model using a priori climate-vegetation relationships for the Western Great Lakes Region (Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan USA and adjacent Ontario, Canada) to predict potential biomes and ecotones—boreal forest, mixed forest, temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie—for a recent climate normal period (1979–2013) and future conditions (2061–2080). Materials and Methods: We analyzed six scenarios, two representative concentration pathways (RCP)—4.5 and 8.5, and three global climate models to represent cool, average, and warm scenarios to predict climate-biome envelopes for 2061–2080. To assess implications of the changes for conservation, we analyzed the amount of land with climate suited for each of the biomes and ecotones both region-wide and within protected areas, under current and future conditions. Results: Recent biome boundaries were accurately represented by the climate-biome envelope model. The modeled future conditions show at least a 96% loss in areas suitable for the boreal and mixed forest from the region, but likely gains in areas suitable for temperate forest, prairie–forest border, and prairie. The analysis also showed that protected areas in the region will most likely lose most or all of the area, 18,692 km2, currently climatically suitable for boreal forest. This would represent an enormous conservation loss. However, conversely, the area climatically suitable for prairie and prairie–forest border within protected areas would increase up to 12.5 times the currently suitable 1775 km2. Conclusions: These results suggest that retaining boreal forest in potential refugia where it currently exists and facilitating transition of some forests to prairie, oak savanna, and temperate forest should both be conservation priorities in the northern part of the region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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16 pages, 3127 KiB  
Article
Response of Soil Microbial Community to C:N:P Stoichiometry along a Caragana korshinskii Restoration Gradient on the Loess Plateau, China
by Xinyi Zhang, Wenjie Li, Zekun Zhong, Qingyue Zhang, Xing Wang, Xinhui Han, Chengjie Ren and Gaihe Yang
Forests 2020, 11(8), 823; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11080823 - 29 Jul 2020
Cited by 19 | Viewed by 3181
Abstract
Soil microorganisms play crucial roles between plants and soil following afforestation. However, the relationship between the microbial community and carbon:nitrogen:phosphorus (C:N:P) stoichiometry in the plant–soil–microbe continuum remains unclear. In this study, we investigated this relationship by collecting plant and soil samples from Caragana [...] Read more.
Soil microorganisms play crucial roles between plants and soil following afforestation. However, the relationship between the microbial community and carbon:nitrogen:phosphorus (C:N:P) stoichiometry in the plant–soil–microbe continuum remains unclear. In this study, we investigated this relationship by collecting plant and soil samples from Caragana korshinskii Kom. plantations with different years of afforestation (17-, 32-, and 42-year-old plantations), and from farmland. Illumina sequencing of the 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) ribosomal RNA was used to examine the soil microbial community and the C, N, and P concentrations in plants, soil, and microbial biomass. Other soil characteristics were also measured. The results showed that the C and N concentrations in plants (leaves, herbs, and litter), soil, and microbial biomass increased as the vegetation restoration stage increased, but the P concentration in leaves and herbs slightly decreased. The C:P and N:P ratios in the plant–soil–microbe continuum substantially increased over time, particularly that of the microbial biomass. These results suggest that the unbalanced increase of C, N, and P following vegetation restoration may result in a P limitation in plant–soil systems. Moreover, bacterial and fungal alpha diversity significantly increased following afforestation. Afforestation had a greater impact on bacterial diversity (both alpha and beta diversity) than did fungal diversity. Among the dominant bacterial taxa, Proteobacteria increased significantly with afforestation time, whereas Actinobacteria decreased and Acidobacteria peaked in 32-year-old C. korshinskii plantations. However, there were no significant changes in the dominant fungal taxa. Collectively, we found that microbial diversity and dominant phyla were closely associated with the C:P and N:P ratios in the plant–soil–microbe continuum, particularly the N:P ratio. These results suggest that microbial diversity and composition may be limited by the imbalances of C, N, and especially P in afforested ecosystems, which provides evidence of linkages between microbial diversity and plant–soil systems in afforested ecosystems and could help in improving the predictions of sustainably restoring C. korshinskii plantations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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Review

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13 pages, 4171 KiB  
Review
Seven Ways a Warming Climate Can Kill the Southern Boreal Forest
by Lee E. Frelich, Rebecca A. Montgomery and Peter B. Reich
Forests 2021, 12(5), 560; https://doi.org/10.3390/f12050560 - 29 Apr 2021
Cited by 23 | Viewed by 5419
Abstract
The southern boreal forests of North America are susceptible to large changes in composition as temperate forests or grasslands may replace them as the climate warms. A number of mechanisms for this have been shown to occur in recent years: (1) Gradual replacement [...] Read more.
The southern boreal forests of North America are susceptible to large changes in composition as temperate forests or grasslands may replace them as the climate warms. A number of mechanisms for this have been shown to occur in recent years: (1) Gradual replacement of boreal trees by temperate trees through gap dynamics; (2) Sudden replacement of boreal overstory trees after gradual understory invasion by temperate tree species; (3) Trophic cascades causing delayed invasion by temperate species, followed by moderately sudden change from boreal to temperate forest; (4) Wind and/or hail storms removing large swaths of boreal forest and suddenly releasing temperate understory trees; (4) Compound disturbances: wind and fire combination; (5) Long, warm summers and increased drought stress; (6) Insect infestation due to lack of extreme winter cold; (7) Phenological disturbance, due to early springs, that has the potential to kill enormous swaths of coniferous boreal forest within a few years. Although most models project gradual change from boreal forest to temperate forest or savanna, most of these mechanisms have the capability to transform large swaths (size range tens to millions of square kilometers) of boreal forest to other vegetation types during the 21st century. Therefore, many surprises are likely to occur in the southern boreal forest over the next century, with major impacts on forest productivity, ecosystem services, and wildlife habitat. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impact of Climate Change on Biome Distributions in Forests)
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