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Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023
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Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023

A special issue of Geosciences (ISSN 2076-3263). This special issue belongs to the section "Natural Hazards".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (25 May 2024) | Viewed by 12932

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Dimitrios Nikolopoulos

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Industrial Design and Production Engineering, University of West Attica, Petrou Ralli & Thivon 250, GR-122 44 Aigaleo, Greece
Interests: radon; radon progeny; radon in soil; kHz-MHz electromagnetic radiation; fractal analysis; fractal dimension; long memory; Hurst exponent; DFA; symbolic dynamics; R/S analysis; entropy; Tsallis entropy; earthquakes; pre-seismic precursors; ionizing radiation physics; radiation dosimetry; radiation exposure; radiation protection; X-rays
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue of Geosciences aims to gather high-quality original research articles, reviews, and technical notes on the topic precursory phenomena prior to earthquakes.

Several types of emissions are detected prior to earthquakes, which provide a potential data source for seismic prediction. Recent research suggests that specific pre-seismic activity can be directly related to specific earthquakes, although this is still an open issue. It is still unclear how pre-seismic emissions and the subsequent earthquake events can be linked with accuracy. Known precursors are the electromagnetic radiation of a wide frequency range from ultra-low frequencies (ULF) between 0.001 and 1 Hz, low frequencies (LF) between 1 and 10 kHz, and high frequencies (HF) between 40 and 60 MHz to very high frequencies (VHF) up to 300 MHz. Significant precursors are also enhanced radon gas emissions before earthquakes with an equally long history and debate in association with seismic activity. Pre-earthquake activity of radon gas and progeny has been observed in the atmosphere, surface water, groundwater, and underground water, in soil gas, thermal spas, active faults, volcanic processes, and other seismotectonic environments. The related research also includes observations for several trace gases, e.g., CO2 in active faults, satellite measurements and remote sensing techniques, surface mapping, and other earthquake activity observations and studies. The research adopts diverging types of methodological approaches, such as those related to the stochastic and statistical behavior of earthquake-related systems, fractals, long memory, fractal dimension, Hurst exponents, entropy, symbolic dynamics, DFA and MFDFA, R/S analysis, spectral analysis, Fourier analysis and wavelets, signal analysis, and signal processing. All the above topics are indicative.

The problem of earthquake prediction is a significant challenge among the scientific community, with several reported attempts to resolve issues related to the discovery of credible and unambiguous pre-earthquake precursors, especially for strong and catastrophic earthquakes. The whole research is multifaceted and involves several types of measurements and analysis methods. For the above reasons, I would like to invite you to submit articles on your recent work, experimental research, and case studies with respect to the topics described above. Papers on the interconnection of the above topics are strongly encouraged.

I invite you to send me a short abstract outlining the purpose of the research and the principal results obtained, in order to verify at an early stage if the contribution you intend to submit fits with the objectives of the Special Issue.

Prof. Dr. Dimitrios Nikolopoulos
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • electromagnetism
  • radon
  • earthquakes
  • remote sensing
  • design of experiments
  • data analysis: algorithms and implementation
  • data management
  • modeling and simulation
  • satellite measurements
  • self-organized systems
  • non-linear dynamics and chaos
  • frac-tals
  • seismic source mechanisms

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

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16 pages, 4182 KiB  
Article
Radon Emanation and Dynamic Processes in Highly Dispersive Media
by Vladislav B. Zaalishvili, Dmitry A. Melkov, Nikita V. Martyushev, Roman V. Klyuev, Vladislav V. Kukartsev, Vladimir Yu. Konyukhov, Roman V. Kononenko, Angelika L. Gendon and Tatiana A. Oparina
Geosciences 2024, 14(4), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences14040102 - 9 Apr 2024
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 1264
Abstract
The paper considers a dispersive geological medium (seismically turbid medium, as defined by A.V. Nikolaev), which is in a stress–strain state. Results of studies on the joint monitoring of seismic effects and radon emanation in various geological environments are presented. It is concluded [...] Read more.
The paper considers a dispersive geological medium (seismically turbid medium, as defined by A.V. Nikolaev), which is in a stress–strain state. Results of studies on the joint monitoring of seismic effects and radon emanation in various geological environments are presented. It is concluded that the turbidity of the medium, as a statistical characteristic, can be generalized in terms of other media parameters, such as permeability. A stable connection between radon emanation and dynamic processes occurring in a geological environment and caused by external influences has been established. The concentration of radon can also reflect the degree of enrichment of the environment by underground fractures. Consequently, saturation of the environment with radon provides information about the presence of disturbances in a geological environment in the form of cracks and a stress–strain state of the medium before and after seismic loadings. Radon observations make it possible to assess a continuity of the environment and the possibility of leaching in natural conditions. Therefore, it could be efficiently used for underground leaching efficiency assessment. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023)
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17 pages, 11530 KiB  
Article
Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Anomalies as Earthquake Precursors: Unveiling the Geophysical Connection Leading to the 2023 Moroccan 6.8 Mw Earthquake
by Karan Nayak, Charbeth López-Urías, Rosendo Romero-Andrade, Gopal Sharma, German Michel Guzmán-Acevedo and Manuel Edwiges Trejo-Soto
Geosciences 2023, 13(11), 319; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13110319 - 24 Oct 2023
Cited by 23 | Viewed by 3881
Abstract
The study delves into the relationship between ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies and seismic activity, with a focus on Morocco’s 6.8 Mw earthquake on 8 September 2023, lying within a tectonically active region at the convergence of the African and Eurasian Plates. [...] Read more.
The study delves into the relationship between ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies and seismic activity, with a focus on Morocco’s 6.8 Mw earthquake on 8 September 2023, lying within a tectonically active region at the convergence of the African and Eurasian Plates. To enhance the reliability of our findings, we incorporate space weather conditions, utilizing indices (Dst, Kp, and F10.7) to pinpoint periods of stable space weather. This minimizes the possibility of erroneously attributing natural ionospheric fluctuations to seismic events. Notably, our TEC analysis unveils positive and negative anomalies, with some occurring up to a week before the earthquake. These anomalies, exceeding predefined thresholds, provide compelling evidence of significant deviations from typical ionospheric conditions. Spatial mapping techniques employing both station-specific vTEC data and pseudorandom noise codes (PRNs) from multiple global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations highlight a strong correlation between ionospheric anomalies and the earthquake’s epicenter. The integration of PRNs enhances coverage and sensitivity to subtle anomalies. Additionally, the analysis of satellite imagery and ground displacement data using Sentinel-1 confirms significant ground uplift of approximately 15 cm following the earthquake, shedding light on surface responses to seismic events. These findings underscore the potential of ionospheric science in advancing earthquake early warning systems and deepening our understanding of earthquake precursors, thus contributing to the mitigation of seismic event impacts and the protection of lives and infrastructure. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023)
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31 pages, 4542 KiB  
Article
Fractal Patterns in Groundwater Radon Disturbances Prior to the Great 7.9 Mw Wenchuan Earthquake, China
by Aftab Alam, Dimitrios Nikolopoulos and Nanping Wang
Geosciences 2023, 13(9), 268; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13090268 - 4 Sep 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1748
Abstract
This study reports a fractal analysis of one-year radon in groundwater disturbances from five stations in China amidst the catastrophic Wenchuan (Mw = 7.9) earthquake of 12 May 2008 (day 133). Five techniques are used (DFA, fractal dimensions with Higuchi, [...] Read more.
This study reports a fractal analysis of one-year radon in groundwater disturbances from five stations in China amidst the catastrophic Wenchuan (Mw = 7.9) earthquake of 12 May 2008 (day 133). Five techniques are used (DFA, fractal dimensions with Higuchi, Katz, Sevcik methods, power-law analysis) in segmented portions glided throughout each signal. Noteworthy fractal areas are outlined in the KDS, GS, MSS data, whilst the portions were non-significant for PZHS and SPS. Up to day 133, critical epoch DFA-exponents are 1.5≤α<2.0, with several above 1.8. The fractal dimensions exhibit Katz’s D around 1.0–1.2, Higuchi’s D between 1.5 and 2.0, and Sevcik’s D between 1.0 and 1.5. Several power-law exponents are above 1.7, and numerous are above 2.0. All fractal results of the KDS-GS-MSS are further analysed using a novel computerised methodology that locates the exact out-of-threshold fractal areas and combines the outcomes of different methods per five, four, three, and two (maximum 13 combinations) versus nineteen Mw≥ 5.5 earthquakes of the greater area. Most coincidences using different techniques are before the great Wenchuan earthquake and after the earthquake. This is not only with one method but with 13 different methods. Other interpretations are also discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023)
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17 pages, 1031 KiB  
Article
Improving the Estimation of the Occurrence Time of an Impending Major Earthquake Using the Entropy Change of Seismicity in Natural Time Analysis
by Panayiotis A. Varotsos, Nicholas V. Sarlis, Efthimios S. Skordas, Toshiyasu Nagao, Masashi Kamogawa, E. Leticia Flores-Márquez, Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas and Jennifer Perez-Oregon
Geosciences 2023, 13(8), 222; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13080222 - 25 Jul 2023
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1318
Abstract
This article is focused on a new procedure concerning a more accurate identification of the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake (EQ). Specifically, we first recapitulate that, as was recently shown [P. Varotsos et al., Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation [...] Read more.
This article is focused on a new procedure concerning a more accurate identification of the occurrence time of an impending major earthquake (EQ). Specifically, we first recapitulate that, as was recently shown [P. Varotsos et al., Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 125 (2023) 107370], natural time analysis of seismicity supplemented with the non-additive Tsallis entropy Sq leads to a shortening of the time window of an impending major EQ. This has been shown for the Tohoku mega-EQ of magnitude M9 that occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011, which is the largest event ever recorded in Japan. Here, we also show that such a shortening of the time window of an impending mainshock can be achieved for major, but smaller EQs, of the order of M8 and M7. In particular, the following EQs are treated: the Chiapas M8.2 EQ, which is Mexico’s largest EQ for more than a century that took place on 7 September 2017 near the coast of Chiapas state in Mexico, the 19 September 2017 M7.1 EQ that occurred within the Mexican flat slab, and the M7.1 Ridgecrest EQ on 6 July 2019 in California. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023)
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Review

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18 pages, 3544 KiB  
Review
Detecting DC Electrical Resistivity Changes in Seismic Active Areas: State-of-the-Art and Future Directions
by Vincenzo Lapenna
Geosciences 2024, 14(5), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences14050118 - 27 Apr 2024
Viewed by 1619
Abstract
In this paper, a critical review of the geoelectrical monitoring activities carried out in seismically active areas is presented and discussed. The electrical resistivity of rocks is one of the geophysical parameters of greatest interest in the study of possible seismic precursors, and [...] Read more.
In this paper, a critical review of the geoelectrical monitoring activities carried out in seismically active areas is presented and discussed. The electrical resistivity of rocks is one of the geophysical parameters of greatest interest in the study of possible seismic precursors, and it is strongly influenced by the presence of highly fractured zones with high permeability and fluid levels. The analysis in the present study was carried out on results obtained over the last 50 years in seismic zones in China, Japan, the USA and Russia. These past works made it possible to classify the different monitoring strategies, analyze the theoretical models for interpreting possible correlations between anomalies in resistivity signals and local seismicity, and identify the main scientific and technological gaps in the literature. In addition, great attention has been paid to some recent works on the study of the correlations between focal mechanisms and the shapes of anomalous patterns in resistivity time series. Finally, some future scenarios for the development of new activities in this field have been identified. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023)
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20 pages, 6830 KiB  
Review
An Analytical Review of the Recent Crustal Uplifts, Tectonics, and Seismicity of the Caucasus Region
by Vladimir I. Kaftan, Alexei D. Gvishiani, Alexander I. Manevich, Boris A. Dzeboev, Viktor N. Tatarinov, Boris V. Dzeranov, Alina M. Avdonina and Iliya V. Losev
Geosciences 2024, 14(3), 70; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences14030070 - 7 Mar 2024
Viewed by 1789
Abstract
This paper analyzes and reviews the rapid uplifts of the Earth’s crust in the Caucasus that occurred over the last century. The uplifts were registered by precise repeated state leveling and reflected on officially published maps of vertical movements of the Earth’s crust. [...] Read more.
This paper analyzes and reviews the rapid uplifts of the Earth’s crust in the Caucasus that occurred over the last century. The uplifts were registered by precise repeated state leveling and reflected on officially published maps of vertical movements of the Earth’s crust. This study summarizes information on the region’s vertical movements over more than a century. The present study describes the technology for creating maps of recent vertical movements of the Earth’s crust using precision leveling data. This paper summarizes cases of recording uplifts of the Earth’s surface in other regions of the world in connection with seismic activity. The authors carried out intercomparison of vertical movements with tectonics, seismicity, and geophysical fields, which discovered their apparent mutual correspondence. This indicates the deep tectonic nature of the observed uplifts of the Earth’s crust. Spatial and temporal agreement with the distribution of strong earthquakes showed a natural relationship. It has been shown that strong earthquakes are confined to the boundaries of zones of rapid uplift. They occur predominantly in areas of transition between uplifts and subsidence. The results obtained demonstrate the role of the study and observations of vertical movements of the Caucasus in assessing periods and areas of increased seismic hazard. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes 2023)
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