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Geosciences
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Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes
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Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes

A special issue of Geosciences (ISSN 2076-3263). This special issue belongs to the section "Natural Hazards".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 June 2022) | Viewed by 13644

Special Issue Editor

Prof. Dr. Dimitrios Nikolopoulos

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Industrial Design and Production Engineering, University of West Attica, Petrou Ralli & Thivon 250, GR-122 44 Aigaleo, Greece
Interests: radon; radon progeny; radon in soil; kHz-MHz electromagnetic radiation; fractal analysis; fractal dimension; long memory; Hurst exponent; DFA; symbolic dynamics; R/S analysis; entropy; Tsallis entropy; earthquakes; pre-seismic precursors; ionizing radiation physics; radiation dosimetry; radiation exposure; radiation protection; X-rays
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue of Geosciences aims to gather high-quality original research articles, reviews, and technical notes on the topic precursory phenomena prior to earthquakes.

Several types of emissions are detected prior to earthquakes which provide a potential data source for seismic prediction. Recent research suggests that specific pre-seismic activity can be directly related to specific earthquakes, although this is still an open issue. It is still unclear how pre-seismic emissions and the subsequent earthquake events can be linked with accuracy. Known precursors are the electromagnetic radiation of a wide frequency range from ultra-low frequencies (ULF) between 0.001 and 1 Hz, low frequencies (LF) between 1 and 10 kHz, high frequencies (HF) between 40 and 60 MHz to very high frequencies (VHF) up to 300 MHz. Significant precursors are also the enhanced radon gas emissions before earthquakes with an equally long history and debate in association with seismic activity. Pre-earthquake activity of radon gas and progeny has been observed in atmosphere, surface water, groundwater, and underground water, in soil gas, thermal spas, active faults, volcanic processes, and other seismotectonic environments. The related research also includes observations for several trace gases, e.g., CO2 in active faults, satellite measurements and remote sensing techniques, surface mapping, and other earthquake activity observations and studies. The research adopts diverging types of methodological approaches, such as those related to the stochastic and statistical behavior of earthquake-related systems, fractals, long memory, fractal dimension, Hurst exponent, entropy, symbolic dynamics, DFA and MFDFA, R/S analysis, spectral analysis, Fourier analysis and wavelets, signal analysis, and signal processing. All the above topics are indicative.

The problem of earthquake prediction is a significant challenge among the scientific community, with several reported attempts to resolve issues related to the discovery of credible and unambiguous pre-earthquake precursors, especially for strong and catastrophic earthquakes. The whole research is multifaceted and involves several types of measurements and analysis methods. For the above reasons, I would like to invite you to submit articles about your recent work, experimental research, and case studies with respect to the topics described above. Papers in the interconnection of the above topics are strongly encouraged.

I invite you to send me a short abstract outlining the purpose of the research and the principal results obtained, in order to verify at an early stage if the contribution you intend to submit fits with the objectives of the Special Issue.

Prof. Dr. Dimitrios Nikolopoulos
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • Electromagnetism
  • Radon
  • Earthquakes
  • Remote sensing
  • Design of experiments; data analysis: algorithms and implementation; data management
  • Modeling and simulation
  • Satellite measurements
  • Self-organized systems
  • Non-linear dynamics and chaos
  • Fractals
  • Seismic source mechanisms

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Published Papers (4 papers)

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29 pages, 11231 KiB  
Article
Multi-Parameter Observations of Seismogenic Phenomena Related to the Tokyo Earthquake (M = 5.9) on 7 October 2021
by Masashi Hayakawa, Alexander Schekotov, Jun Izutsu, Shih-Sian Yang, Maria Solovieva and Yasuhide Hobara
Geosciences 2022, 12(7), 265; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12070265 - 30 Jun 2022
Cited by 20 | Viewed by 2501
Abstract
Multi-parameter observations, powerful for the study of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC), have been performed for a recent Tokyo earthquake (EQ) with a moderate magnitude (M = 5.9) and rather larger depth (~70 km) on 7 October 2021, in the hope of predicting the next [...] Read more.
Multi-parameter observations, powerful for the study of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC), have been performed for a recent Tokyo earthquake (EQ) with a moderate magnitude (M = 5.9) and rather larger depth (~70 km) on 7 October 2021, in the hope of predicting the next Kanto (Tokyo) huge EQ, such as the 1923 Great Kanto EQ (with a magnitude greater than 7). Various possible precursors have been searched during the two-month period of 1 September to 31 October 2021, based on different kinds of data sets: (i) ULF (ultra-low frequency) magnetic data from Kakioka, Japan, (ii) ULF/ELF (extremely low frequency) magnetic field data from the Chubu University network, (iii) meteorological data (temperature and humidity) from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), (iv) AGW (atmospheric gravity wave) ERA5 data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), (v) subionospheric VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) data from Russia and Japan, (vi) ionosonde Japanese data, and (vii) GIM (global ionosphere map) TEC (total electron content) data. After extensive analyses of all of the above data, we have found that there are a few obvious precursors: (i) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere, and (ii) lower ionospheric perturbations (with two independent tools from the ULF depression and subionospheric VLF anomaly) which took place just two days before the EQ. Further, ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation has been observed from approximately one week before the EQ until a few days after the EQ, which seems to be approximately synchronous in time to the anomalous variation in meteorological parameters (a combination of temperature and humidity, atmospheric chemical potential). On the other hand, there have been no clear anomalies detected in the stratospheric AGW activity, and in the NmF2 and TEC data for the upper F region ionosphere. So, it seems that the lithospheric origin is not strong enough to perturb the upper F region. Finally, we discuss the possible hypothesis for the LAIC process, and we can conclude that the AGW hypothesis might be ruled out, but other possible channels such as the chemical channel (radon emanation) and the associated effects might be in operation, at least, for this Tokyo EQ. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes)
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17 pages, 9196 KiB  
Article
The Global Electric Circuit and Global Seismicity
by Sergey Pulinets and Galina Khachikyan
Geosciences 2021, 11(12), 491; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11120491 - 30 Nov 2021
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3820
Abstract
Basing on the catalogue of earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 4.5 for the period 1973–2017, a UT variation with an amplitude of ~10% in the number of earthquakes is revealed and compared with a UT variation in the ionospheric potential (IP) [...] Read more.
Basing on the catalogue of earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 4.5 for the period 1973–2017, a UT variation with an amplitude of ~10% in the number of earthquakes is revealed and compared with a UT variation in the ionospheric potential (IP) with an amplitude of ~18%. We demonstrate that the amplitude of the UT variation in the number of deep-focus earthquakes is greater compared with that of crustal earthquakes, reaching 19%. The UT of the primary maxima of both the IP (according to modern calculations) and of earthquake incidence coincides (near 17:00 UT) and is, by 2 h, ahead of the classical Carnegie curve representing the UT variation in the atmospheric electric field on the ground surface. The linear regression equation between these UT variations in the number of deep-focus earthquakes and the ionospheric potential is obtained, with a correlation coefficient of R = 0.97. The results support the idea that the processes of earthquake preparation are coupled to the functional processes of the global electric circuit and the generation of atmospheric electric fields. In particular, the observed increase in thunderstorm activity over earthquake preparation areas, provided by air ionization due to radon emanation, yields a clue as to why the global thunderstorm distribution is primarily continental. Another important conclusion is that, in observing the longitudinal distributions of earthquakes against the IP distribution, we automatically observe that all such events occur in local nighttime hours. Considering that the majority of earthquake precursors have their maximums at local night and demonstrating the positive deviation from the undisturbed value, we obtain a clue as to its positive correlation with variations in the ionospheric potential. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes)
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29 pages, 14365 KiB  
Article
Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Effects Based on Multiparameter Precursor Observations for February–March 2021 Earthquakes (M~7) in the Offshore of Tohoku Area of Japan
by Masashi Hayakawa, Jun Izutsu, Alexander Schekotov, Shih-Sian Yang, Maria Solovieva and Ekaterina Budilova
Geosciences 2021, 11(11), 481; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11110481 - 22 Nov 2021
Cited by 23 | Viewed by 3968 | Correction
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) effects with the use of multiparameter precursor observations for two successive Japanese earthquakes (EQs) (with a magnitude of around 7) in February and March 2021, respectively, considering a seemingly significant difference [...] Read more.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) effects with the use of multiparameter precursor observations for two successive Japanese earthquakes (EQs) (with a magnitude of around 7) in February and March 2021, respectively, considering a seemingly significant difference in seismological and geological hypocenter conditions for those EQs. The second March EQ is very similar to the famous 2011 Tohoku EQ in the sense that those EQs took place at the seabed of the subducting plate, while the first February EQ happened within the subducting plate, not at the seabed. Multiparameter observation is a powerful tool for the study of the LAIC process, and we studied the following observables over a 3-month period (January to March): (i) ULF data (lithospheric radiation and ULF depression phenomenon); (ii) ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation; (iii) atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere, extracted from satellite temperature data; (iv) subionospheric VLF/LF propagation data; and (v) GPS TECs (total electron contents). In contrast to our initial expectation of different responses of anomalies to the two EQs, we found no such conspicuous differences of electromagnetic anomalies between the two EQs, but showed quite similar anomaly responses for the two EQs. It is definite that atmospheric ULF/ELF radiation and ULF depression as lower ionospheric perturbation are most likely signatures of precursors to both EQs, and most importantly, all electromagnetic anomalies are concentrated in the period of about 1 week–9 days before the EQ to the EQ day. There seems to exist a chain of LAIC process (cause-and-effect relationship) for the first EQ, while all of the observed anomalies seem to occur nearly synchronously in time for the send EQ. Even though we tried to discuss possible LAIC channels, we cannot come to any definite conclusion about which coupling channel is plausible for each EQ. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes)
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1 pages, 162 KiB  
Correction
Correction: Hayakawa et al. Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Effects Based on Multiparameter Precursor Observations for February–March 2021 Earthquakes (M~7) in the Offshore of Tohoku Area of Japan. Geosciences 2021, 11, 481
by Masashi Hayakawa, Jun Izutsu, Alexander Schekotov, Shih-Sian Yang, Maria Solovieva and Ekaterina Budilova
Geosciences 2022, 12(1), 11; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12010011 - 28 Dec 2021
Viewed by 1874
Abstract
The authors would like to make the following corrections to this paper [...] Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precursory Phenomena Prior to Earthquakes)
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