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Insects
Special Issues
Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects
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Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects

A special issue of Insects (ISSN 2075-4450). This special issue belongs to the section "Insect Ecology, Diversity and Conservation".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (15 October 2023) | Viewed by 15393

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Kamil Erguler

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
The Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
Interests: dynamical modelling and analysis; parameter inference; model selection; sensitivity analysis; data visualization
Dr. David Roy

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Biological Records Centre, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
Interests: biodiversity monitoring; biological recording; citizen science; biological impacts of climate change

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues, 

Urbanisation, globalisation, habitat loss, and climate change associated with range expansion of invasive species are expected to result in ecosystem disruptions, biodiversity loss, and an increased probability of infectious disease emergence. Understanding the complex links between insects, the key components of many ecosystems and pathogen transmission cycles, and their environment through mathematical and statistical modelling has become essential tools in efforts to anticipate current and potential future threats to human, animal, and ecosystem health. This Special Issue will report recent discoveries and review key subject areas in the broad field of climate-sensitive ecological and dynamical modelling of insects, as well as the utilization of meteorological datasets, remote sensing, citizen science, and traditional surveillance to develop new solutions for prediction, protection, and/or control of native and invasive insect species.

Dr. Kamil Erguler
Dr. David Roy
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Insects is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • population dynamics
  • mechanistic modelling
  • parameter inference
  • model selection
  • sensitivity analysis
  • ecological niche modelling
  • remote sensing
  • citizen science
  • surveillance
  • climate change
  • one health
  • biodiversity

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Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

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13 pages, 15834 KiB  
Article
Human–Environment Interactions Shape Mosquito Seasonal Population Dynamics
by Laura Blanco-Sierra, Jesús Bellver-Arnau, Santi Escartin, Simone Mariani and Frederic Bartumeus
Insects 2024, 15(7), 527; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15070527 - 12 Jul 2024
Viewed by 1575
Abstract
Mosquito species, including the Asian tiger mosquito, can transmit disease-causing pathogens such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, with their population dynamics influenced by a variety of factors including climate shifts, human activity, and local environmental conditions. Understanding these dynamics is vital for effective [...] Read more.
Mosquito species, including the Asian tiger mosquito, can transmit disease-causing pathogens such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, with their population dynamics influenced by a variety of factors including climate shifts, human activity, and local environmental conditions. Understanding these dynamics is vital for effective control measures. Our study, conducted in Jardí Botanic Marimurtra from May to November 2021, monitored Ae. albopictus activity using BG-Traps and investigated larval control effects. We employed Generalized Linear Mixed Models to analyze variables like weather, human presence, and larvicidal control on adult mosquito abundance. Adults of Ae. albopictus exhibited a seasonal pattern influenced by temperature but with bimodal peaks linked to cumulative rainfall. Proximity to stagnant water and visitor influx directly affected mosquito captures. Additionally, the effectiveness of larvicide treatments depended on interactions between preceding rainfall levels and treatment timing. Our research emphasizes the significance of studying vector ecology at local scales to enhance the efficacy of control programs and address the escalating burden of vector-borne diseases. Considering the impacts of extreme weather events and climate shifts is essential for the development of robust vector control strategies. Furthermore, our distinct findings serve as a prime illustration of utilizing statistical modeling to gain mechanistic insights into ecological patterns and processes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects)
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14 pages, 7082 KiB  
Article
The Spatial Distribution of Crimean–Congo Haemorrhagic Fever and Its Potential Vectors in Europe and Beyond
by Jane Paula Messina and G. R. William Wint
Insects 2023, 14(9), 771; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14090771 - 17 Sep 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2410
Abstract
Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is considered to be spreading across the globe, with many countries reporting new human CCHF cases in recent decades including Georgia, Türkiye, Albania, and, most recently, Spain. We update a human CCHF distribution map produced in 2015 to include [...] Read more.
Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is considered to be spreading across the globe, with many countries reporting new human CCHF cases in recent decades including Georgia, Türkiye, Albania, and, most recently, Spain. We update a human CCHF distribution map produced in 2015 to include global disease occurrence records to June 2022, and we include the recent records for Europe. The predicted distributions are based on long-established spatial modelling methods and are extended to include all European countries and the surrounding areas. The map produced shows the environmental suitability for the disease, taking into account the distribution of the most important known and potential tick vectors Hyalomma marginatum and Hyalomma lusitanicum, without which the disease cannot occur. This limits the disease’s predicted distribution to the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean seaboard, along with Türkiye and the Caucasus, with a more patchy suitability predicted for inland Greece, the southern Balkans, and extending north to north-west France and central Europe. These updated CCHF maps can be used to identify the areas with the highest probability of disease and to therefore target areas where mitigation measures should currently be focused. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects)
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19 pages, 9758 KiB  
Article
Machine Learning Modeling of Aedes albopictus Habitat Suitability in the 21st Century
by Pantelis Georgiades, Yiannis Proestos, Jos Lelieveld and Kamil Erguler
Insects 2023, 14(5), 447; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14050447 - 9 May 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2638
Abstract
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an important vector of arboviruses that cause diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika. The vector is highly invasive and adapted to survive in temperate northern territories outside its native tropical and sub-tropical range. Climate [...] Read more.
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an important vector of arboviruses that cause diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika. The vector is highly invasive and adapted to survive in temperate northern territories outside its native tropical and sub-tropical range. Climate and socio-economic change are expected to facilitate its range expansion and exacerbate the global vector-borne disease burden. To project shifts in the global habitat suitability of the vector, we developed an ensemble machine learning model, incorporating a combination of a Random Forest and XGBoost binary classifiers, trained with a global collection of vector surveillance data and an extensive set of climate and environmental constraints. We demonstrate the reliable performance and wide applicability of the ensemble model in comparison to the known global presence of the vector, and project that suitable habitats will expand globally, most significantly in the northern hemisphere, putting at least an additional billion people at risk of vector-borne diseases by the middle of the 21st century. We project several highly populated areas of the world will be suitable for Ae. albopictus populations, such as the northern parts of the USA, Europe, and India by the end of the century, which highlights the need for coordinated preventive surveillance efforts of potential entry points by local authorities and stakeholders. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects)
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15 pages, 2917 KiB  
Article
Predicting Culex pipiens/restuans Population Dynamics Using a Weather-Driven Dynamic Compartmental Population Model
by Karin Bakran-Lebl, Lene Jung Kjær and Beate Conrady
Insects 2023, 14(3), 293; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects14030293 - 17 Mar 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3005
Abstract
Mosquitoes of the genus Culex are important vectors of a variety of arthropod-borne viral infections. In most of the northern parts of the USA, Cx. pipiens/restuans is the predominant representative of this genus. As vectors, they play a key role in the spreading [...] Read more.
Mosquitoes of the genus Culex are important vectors of a variety of arthropod-borne viral infections. In most of the northern parts of the USA, Cx. pipiens/restuans is the predominant representative of this genus. As vectors, they play a key role in the spreading of arboviruses and thus, knowledge of the population dynamic of mosquitoes is important to understand the disease ecology of these viruses. As poikilotherm animals, the vital rates of mosquitoes are highly dependent on ambient temperature, and also on precipitation. We present a compartmental model for the population dynamics of Cx. pipiens/restuans. The model is driven by temperature, precipitation, and daytime length (which can be calculated from the geographic latitude). For model evaluation, we used long-term mosquito capture data, which were averaged from multiple sites in Cook County, Illinois. The model fitted the observation data and was able to reproduce between-year differences in the abundance of the Cx. pipiens/restuans mosquitoes, as well as the different seasonal trends. Using this model, we evaluated the effectiveness of targeting different vital rates for mosquito control strategies. The final model is able to reproduce the weekly mean Cx. pipiens/restuans abundance for Cook County with a high accuracy, and over a long time period of 20 years. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects)
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13 pages, 2662 KiB  
Article
The Effect of Environmental Factors on the Diversity of Crane Flies (Tipulidae) in Mountainous and Non-Mountainous Regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Surrounding Areas
by Qicheng Yang, Wei Chen, Lishan Qian, Ding Yang, Xiaoyan Liu and Manqun Wang
Insects 2022, 13(11), 1054; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13111054 - 15 Nov 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1806
Abstract
Tipulidae, one of the most diverse families of Diptera, is widely distributed in the world. The adults have weak flight ability, making it an ideal model for studying the formation of insect diversity. This study aims to explore the species diversity and endemism [...] Read more.
Tipulidae, one of the most diverse families of Diptera, is widely distributed in the world. The adults have weak flight ability, making it an ideal model for studying the formation of insect diversity. This study aims to explore the species diversity and endemism of Tipulidae in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the surrounding areas, as well as analyze the relationships between the diversity pattern and 25 environmental factors in mountainous and non-mountainous regions. To this end, we collected 2589 datasets for the distribution of 1219 Tipulidae species, and found three areas with high diversities of Tipulidae around the QTP, including the Sikkim-Yadong area, Kamen River Basin, and Gongga Mountain. Further R, generalized additive model (GAM), and stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated that the richness and endemism of Tipulidae is mainly influenced by the warmest quarter precipitation and topographic heterogeneity in mountainous regions, but in non-mountainous regions, the richness is mostly affected by the precipitation seasonality, while there is no regularity in the relationship between endemism and environmental factors. In addition, the richness model in mountainous regions was in conformity with the results of GAM. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects)
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Review

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26 pages, 3030 KiB  
Review
Phenological Mapping of Invasive Insects: Decision Support for Surveillance and Management
by Brittany S. Barker and Leonard Coop
Insects 2024, 15(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/insects15010006 - 22 Dec 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2588
Abstract
Readily accessible and easily understood forecasts of the phenology of invasive insects have the potential to support and improve strategic and tactical decisions for insect surveillance and management. However, most phenological modeling tools developed to date are site-based, meaning that they use data [...] Read more.
Readily accessible and easily understood forecasts of the phenology of invasive insects have the potential to support and improve strategic and tactical decisions for insect surveillance and management. However, most phenological modeling tools developed to date are site-based, meaning that they use data from a weather station to produce forecasts for that single site. Spatial forecasts of phenology, or phenological maps, are more useful for decision-making at area-wide scales, such as counties, states, or entire nations. In this review, we provide a brief history on the development of phenological mapping technologies with a focus on degree-day models and their use as decision support tools for invasive insect species. We compare three different types of phenological maps and provide examples using outputs of web-based platforms that are presently available for real-time mapping of invasive insects for the contiguous United States. Next, we summarize sources of climate data available for real-time mapping, applications of phenological maps, strategies for balancing model complexity and simplicity, data sources and methods for validating spatial phenology models, and potential sources of model error and uncertainty. Lastly, we make suggestions for future research that may improve the quality and utility of phenological maps for invasive insects. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Sensitive Ecological and Dynamical Models of Insects)
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