Journal of Risk and Financial Management

Editorial

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3 pages, 166 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Is One Diagnostic Test for COVID-19 Enough?

by Michael McAleer

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(4), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040077 - 17 Apr 2020

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5966

Abstract

There is no doubt about the importance of diagnostic testing in an emergency; specifically, which range of tests is available, where and when they are dispensed, and who might be tested using laboratory-developed tests, or other diagnostic tests including experimental tests. This includes [...] Read more.

There is no doubt about the importance of diagnostic testing in an emergency; specifically, which range of tests is available, where and when they are dispensed, and who might be tested using laboratory-developed tests, or other diagnostic tests including experimental tests. This includes testing for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease. Testing is essential to “flatten the curve” of the number of confirmed positive cases of the disease, in addition to handwashing, isolation, and social distancing, among other essential measures. Is one diagnostic test enough to obtain the correct decision about a confirmed positive outcome? Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

6 pages, 187 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Suspending Classes Without Stopping Learning: China’s Education Emergency Management Policy in the COVID-19 Outbreak

by Wunong Zhang, Yuxin Wang, Lili Yang and Chuanyi Wang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(3), 55; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13030055 - 13 Mar 2020

Cited by 583 | Viewed by 56495

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 outbreak, an emergency policy initiative called “Suspending Classes Without Stopping Learning” was launched by the Chinese government to continue teaching activities as schools across the country were closed to contain the virus. However, there is ambiguity and [...] Read more.

Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 outbreak, an emergency policy initiative called “Suspending Classes Without Stopping Learning” was launched by the Chinese government to continue teaching activities as schools across the country were closed to contain the virus. However, there is ambiguity and disagreement about what to teach, how to teach, the workload of teachers and students, the teaching environment, and the implications for education equity. Possible difficulties that the policy faces include: the weakness of the online teaching infrastructure, the inexperience of teachers (including unequal learning outcomes caused by teachers’ varied experience), the information gap, the complex environment at home, and so forth. To tackle the problems, we suggest that the government needs to further promote the construction of the educational information superhighway, consider equipping teachers and students with standardized home-based teaching/learning equipment, conduct online teacher training, include the development of massive online education in the national strategic plan, and support academic research into online education, especially education to help students with online learning difficulties. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

5 pages, 172 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Prevention Is Better Than the Cure: Risk Management of COVID-19

by Michael McAleer

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(3), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13030046 - 3 Mar 2020

Cited by 93 | Viewed by 32111

Abstract

A novel coronavirus was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) in China on 31 December 2019. The WHO named the disease COVID-19 on 11 February 2020. As of 26 February 2020, the disease has been detected on all continents, except for Antarctica. [...] Read more.

A novel coronavirus was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) in China on 31 December 2019. The WHO named the disease COVID-19 on 11 February 2020. As of 26 February 2020, the disease has been detected on all continents, except for Antarctica. Daily updates on COVID-19 since early February 2020 have made headline news worldwide for much of 2020. This editorial evaluates risk management based on the Global Health Security (GHS) Index of global health security capabilities in 195 countries. The GHS Index lists the countries best prepared for an epidemic or pandemic. COVID-19 is compared with two related coronavirus epidemics, SARS and MERS, in terms of the number of reported human infections, deaths, countries, major country clusters, timelines, and the likelihood of discovering a safe, effective, and approved vaccine. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

6 pages, 188 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Risk Management of COVID-19 by Universities in China

by Chuanyi Wang, Zhe Cheng, Xiao-Guang Yue and Michael McAleer

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(2), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13020036 - 19 Feb 2020

Cited by 292 | Viewed by 49779

Abstract

The rapid spread of new coronaviruses throughout China and the world in 2019–2020 has had a great impact on China’s economic and social development. As the backbone of Chinese society, Chinese universities have made significant contributions to emergency risk management. Such contributions have [...] Read more.

The rapid spread of new coronaviruses throughout China and the world in 2019–2020 has had a great impact on China’s economic and social development. As the backbone of Chinese society, Chinese universities have made significant contributions to emergency risk management. Such contributions have been made primarily in the following areas: alumni resource collection, medical rescue and emergency management, mental health maintenance, control of staff mobility, and innovation in online education models. Through the support of these methods, Chinese universities have played a positive role in the prevention and control of the epidemic situation. However, they also face the problems of alumni’s economic development difficulties, the risk of deadly infection to medical rescue teams and health workers, infection of teachers and students, and the unsatisfactory application of information technology in resolving the crisis. In response to these risks and emergency problems, we propose some corresponding solutions for public dissemination, including issues related to medical security, emergency research, professional assistance, positive communication, and hierarchical information-based teaching. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

6 pages, 177 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China

by Xiao-Guang Yue, Xue-Feng Shao, Rita Yi Man Li, M. James C. Crabbe, Lili Mi, Siyan Hu, Julien S. Baker and Gang Liang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(2), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13020022 - 3 Feb 2020

Cited by 48 | Viewed by 16963

Abstract

Recently, a novel coronavirus pneumonia (2019–nCoV) outbreak occurred in Wuhan, China, rapidly spreading first to the whole country, and then globally, causing widespread concern. From the perspectives of early warning and identification of risk, risk monitoring, and analysis, as well as risk management [...] Read more.

Recently, a novel coronavirus pneumonia (2019–nCoV) outbreak occurred in Wuhan, China, rapidly spreading first to the whole country, and then globally, causing widespread concern. From the perspectives of early warning and identification of risk, risk monitoring, and analysis, as well as risk management and handling, we propose corresponding solutions and recommendations, which include institutional cooperation, and to inform national and international policy-makers. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

Research

Jump to: Editorial, Review

29 pages, 5589 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Risk Factors and Option-Implied Expected Market Risk Premia: An International Perspective

by Belén Nieto and Gonzalo Rubio

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2022, 15(1), 13; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15010013 - 3 Jan 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 3188

Abstract

Institutional investors often have to decide which strategy to use across international business cycles. This is especially important during economic and financial crises. The exogenous nature of the outbreak of the dramatic COVID-19 crisis represents a unique opportunity to understand the performance of [...] Read more.

Institutional investors often have to decide which strategy to use across international business cycles. This is especially important during economic and financial crises. The exogenous nature of the outbreak of the dramatic COVID-19 crisis represents a unique opportunity to understand the performance of risk factors during severe economic times across international stock markets. Even more important is to analyze how these factors behave across very different economic crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Recession. Although, the overall results show that the momentum and quality factors are the winners, with the value factor as the loser, this research also reports different responses of factors across crises and countries. The size, value, and defensive factors tend to perform worse during the health crisis relative to the Great Recession, while the momentum factor shows a poor performance during the financial crisis, but a positive one during the outbreak of COVID-19. The quality factor is an extraordinary defensive factor in both crises. Similarly, this paper reports heterogeneous responses of option-implied expected market risk premia across alternative stock market indices, and between the Great Recession and the COVID-19 crisis. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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22 pages, 1010 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Neutrosophic Fuzzy Optimisation Model for Optimal Sustainable Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network during COVID-19

by Agnieszka Szmelter-Jarosz, Javid Ghahremani-Nahr and Hamed Nozari

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(11), 519; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14110519 - 1 Nov 2021

Cited by 23 | Viewed by 3414

Abstract

In this paper, a sustainable closed-loop supply chain problem is modelled in conditions of uncertainty. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic situation, the designed supply chain network seeks to deliver medical equipment to hospitals on time within a defined time window to prevent overcrowding [...] Read more.

In this paper, a sustainable closed-loop supply chain problem is modelled in conditions of uncertainty. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic situation, the designed supply chain network seeks to deliver medical equipment to hospitals on time within a defined time window to prevent overcrowding and virus transmission. In order to achieve a suitable model for designing a sustainable closed-loop supply chain network, important decisions such as locating potential facilities, optimal flow allocation, and vehicle routing have been made to prevent the congestion of vehicles and transmission of the COVID-19 virus. Since the amount of demand in hospitals for medical equipment is unknown, the fuzzy programming method is used to control uncertain demand, and to achieve an efficient solution to the decision-making problem, the neutrosophic fuzzy method is used. The results show that the designed model and the selected solution method (the neutrosophic fuzzy method) have led to a reduction in vehicle traffic by meeting the uncertain demand of hospitals in different time windows. In this way, both the chain network costs have been reduced and medical equipment has been transferred to hospitals with social distancing. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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24 pages, 452 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis

by Tamás Kristóf

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(10), 494; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100494 - 15 Oct 2021

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3988

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis has revealed the economic vulnerability of various countries and, thus, has instigated the systematic exploration and forecasting of sovereign default risks. Multivariate statistical and stochastic process-based sovereign default risk forecasting has a 50-year developmental history. This article describes a continuous, [...] Read more.

The COVID-19 crisis has revealed the economic vulnerability of various countries and, thus, has instigated the systematic exploration and forecasting of sovereign default risks. Multivariate statistical and stochastic process-based sovereign default risk forecasting has a 50-year developmental history. This article describes a continuous, non-homogeneous Markov chain method as the basis for a COVID-19-related sovereign default risk forecast model. It demonstrates the estimation of sovereign probabilities of default (PDs) over a five-year horizon period with the developed model reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. The COVID-19-adopted Markov model estimates PDs for most countries, including those that are advanced with AAA and AA ratings, to suggest that no sovereign nation’s economy is secure from the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamics of the estimated PDs are indicative of contemporary evidence as experienced in the recent financial crisis. The empirical results of this article have policy implications for foreign investors, sovereign lenders, export finance institutions, foreign trade experts, risk management professionals, and policymakers in the field of finance. The developed model can be used to timely recognize potential problems with sovereign entities in the current COVID-19 crisis and to take appropriate mitigating actions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

14 pages, 3406 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of COVID-19 Case Quarantine Strategies in Two Australian States: New South Wales and Western Australia

by Adrian Melia, Doowon Lee, Nader Mahmoudi, Yameng Li and Francesco Paolucci

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(7), 305; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070305 - 4 Jul 2021

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3993

Abstract

Two main strategies, home and hotel isolation, have been used to isolate COVID-19 cases in most countries. Both have proven to be somewhat medically effective, but the costs to produce the desired outcome remain unclear. We used a decision tree model to compare [...] Read more.

Two main strategies, home and hotel isolation, have been used to isolate COVID-19 cases in most countries. Both have proven to be somewhat medically effective, but the costs to produce the desired outcome remain unclear. We used a decision tree model to compare alternatives and a simulation model to determine the household structure and provide recommendations for the most cost-effective way to isolate a COVID-19 patient in two Australian States, New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia (WA). The results show that although the average cost of isolating a confirmed case at home is lower than that of a hotel quarantine, it is demonstrable that the decision depends on household size and the ages of household members. If the household members’ ages are old or the household size is large, the expected mean cost of home quarantine might be higher than hotel quarantine. Our study, therefore, provides the government with a cost-effective insight into making quarantine policies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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23 pages, 411 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Risk Management: Exploring Emerging Human Resource Issues during the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Yifan Zhong, Yameng Li, Jian Ding and Yiyi Liao

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(5), 228; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14050228 - 19 May 2021

Cited by 28 | Viewed by 29364

Abstract

The unanticipated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has hit global business heavily, disrupting the management of human resources across numerous industries. More than 500 articles (indexed in Scopus and the Web of Science) on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on emerging human [...] Read more.

The unanticipated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has hit global business heavily, disrupting the management of human resources across numerous industries. More than 500 articles (indexed in Scopus and the Web of Science) on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on emerging human resources issues and related practices were published from 1 January 2020 to 31 January 2021. In this study, we conduct a systematic literature review on emerging studies in the business and management field to explore what the emerging human resource issues are during the COVID-19 pandemic and propose related practices to solve these issues. The analysis of the published literature identifies nine main human resource issues across 13 industries. The findings of this study suggest that COVID-19 has enormous impact on conventional human resource management and requires the theoretical and empirical attention of researchers. The propositions nominate related human resource practices to deal with emerging human resources issues and identify several research venues for future studies in this field. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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23 pages, 1047 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators

by Deimante Teresiene, Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene, Yiyi Liao, Rasa Kanapickiene, Ruihui Pu, Siyan Hu and Xiao-Guang Yue

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(4), 159; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14040159 - 2 Apr 2021

Cited by 34 | Viewed by 16125

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research [...] Read more.

The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research we aim to identify consumer and business confidence indicators’ reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Eurozone, the United States, and China. For this purpose, we used the method of correlation–regression analysis. We chose the consumer-confidence index, manufacturing purchasing manager’s index, and services purchasing manager’s index as dependent variables; and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 infections as independent variables. The results showed a relatively rapid and robust effect of COVID-19 in the short period, but longer-term results depended on the region and were not so unambiguous: in the case of the Eurozone, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the consumer-confidence index (CCI) or, in the cases of the United States and China, affected this index negatively; the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the services sector was significantly negatively affected by the mortality risk of COVID-19 infection; and the impact on the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in the manufacturing industry appeared to be mixed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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14 pages, 2081 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Will the Aviation Industry Have a Bright Future after the COVID-19 Outbreak? Evidence from Chinese Airport Shipping Sector

by Jingxuan Liu, Ping Qiao, Jian Ding, Luke Hankinson, Elodie H. Harriman, Edward M. Schiller, Ieva Ramanauskaite and Haowei Zhang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(11), 276; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13110276 - 11 Nov 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 7053

Abstract

Due to the lockdown regulations worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, the global aviation industry has been severely hit. This study focuses on the volatility estimation of stock indexes in the Chinese Airport Shipping Set (ASS) at industry-enterprise levels and identifies possible business behavior [...] Read more.

Due to the lockdown regulations worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, the global aviation industry has been severely hit. This study focuses on the volatility estimation of stock indexes in the Chinese Airport Shipping Set (ASS) at industry-enterprise levels and identifies possible business behavior that may cause fluctuating differences. Depending on the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, text mining method and Word Cloud Views, results show that (1) the holistic volatility of Airport Shipping Set Index (ASSI) increases relative to the pre-COVID period; (2) volatility of airport stocks has crucial differences, while the volatility of shipping stocks is similar; (3) there are different responses to the pandemic between Shenzhen Airport and Shanghai Airport shown in their semiannual financial reports. Compared to the latter, the former had a more positive attitude and took various measures to mitigate risks, providing evidence of the volatility differences between firms. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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30 pages, 978 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market

by Willem Thorbecke

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(10), 233; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13100233 - 1 Oct 2020

Cited by 43 | Viewed by 22315

Abstract

The coronavirus crisis has damaged the U.S. economy. This paper uses the stock returns of 125 sectors to investigate its impact. It decomposes returns into components driven by sector-specific factors and by macroeconomic factors. Idiosyncratic factors harmed industries such as airlines, aerospace, real [...] Read more.

The coronavirus crisis has damaged the U.S. economy. This paper uses the stock returns of 125 sectors to investigate its impact. It decomposes returns into components driven by sector-specific factors and by macroeconomic factors. Idiosyncratic factors harmed industries such as airlines, aerospace, real estate, tourism, oil, brewers, retail apparel, and funerals. There are thus large swaths of the economy whose recovery depends not on the macroeconomic environment but on controlling the pandemic. Macroeconomic factors generated losses in industries such as production equipment, machinery, and electronic and electrical equipment. Thus, reviving capital goods spending requires not just an end to the pandemic but also a macroeconomic recovery. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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14 pages, 1105 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally

by Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan, Md. Abul Kalam, Shahanaj Shano, Md. Raihan Khan Nayem, Md. Kaisar Rahman, Shahneaz Ali Khan and Ariful Islam

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(9), 194; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13090194 - 1 Sep 2020

Cited by 19 | Viewed by 6528

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has manifested more than a health crisis and has severely impacted on social, economic, and development crises in the world. The relationship of COVID-19 with countries’ economic and other demographic statuses is an important criterion with which to assess the [...] Read more.

The COVID-19 pandemic has manifested more than a health crisis and has severely impacted on social, economic, and development crises in the world. The relationship of COVID-19 with countries’ economic and other demographic statuses is an important criterion with which to assess the impact of this current outbreak. Based on available data from the online platform, we tested the hypotheses of a country’s economic status, population density, the median age of the population, and urbanization pattern influence on the test, attack, case fatality, and recovery rates of COVID-19. We performed correlation and multivariate multinomial regression analysis with relative risk ratio (RRR) to test the hypotheses. The correlation analysis showed that population density and test rate had a significantly negative association (r = −0.2384, p = 0.00). In contrast, the median age had a significant positive correlation with recovery rate (r = 0.4654, p = 0.00) and case fatality rate (r = 0.2847, p = 0.00). The urban population rate had a positive significant correlation with recovery rate (r = 0.1610, p = 0.04). Lower-middle-income countries had a negative significant correlation with case fatality rate (r= −0.3310, p = 0.04). The multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that low-income countries are more likely to have an increased risk of case fatality rate (RRR = 0.986, 95% Confidence Interval; CI = 0.97−1.00, p < 0.05) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.967, 95% CI = 0.95–0.98, p = 0.00). The lower-income countries are more likely to have a higher risk in case of attack rate (RRR = 0.981, 95% CI = 0.97–0.99, p = 0.00) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.971, 95% CI = 0.96–0.98, p = 0.00). Similarly, upper middle-income countries are more likely to have higher risk in case of attack rate (RRR = 0.988, 95% CI = 0.98–1.0, p = 0.01) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.978, 95% CI = 0.97–0.99, p = 0.00). The low- and lower-middle-income countries should invest more in health care services and implement adequate COVID-19 preventive measures to reduce the risk burden. We recommend a participatory, whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach for responding to the socio-economic challenges of COVID-19 and ensuring more resilient and robust health systems to safeguard against preventable deaths and poverty by improving public health outcomes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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20 pages, 1374 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 on Australian Universities

by Arran Thatcher, Mona Zhang, Hayden Todoroski, Anthony Chau, Joanna Wang and Gang Liang

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(9), 188; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13090188 - 19 Aug 2020

Cited by 76 | Viewed by 14038

Abstract

This article explores the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) upon Australia’s education industry with a particular focus on universities. With the high dependence that the revenue structures of Australian universities have on international student tuition fees, they are particularly prone to the [...] Read more.

This article explores the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) upon Australia’s education industry with a particular focus on universities. With the high dependence that the revenue structures of Australian universities have on international student tuition fees, they are particularly prone to the economic challenges presented by COVID-19. As such, this study considers the impact to total Australian university revenue and employment caused by the significant decline in the number of international students continuing their studies in Australia during the current pandemic. We use a linear regression model calculated from data published by the Australian Government’s Department of Education, Skills, and Employment (DESE) to predict the impact of COVID-19 on total Australian university revenue, the number of international student enrolments in Australian universities, and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) positions at Australian universities. Our results have implications for both policy makers and university decision makers, who should consider the need for revenue diversification in order to reduce the risk exposure of Australian universities. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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17 pages, 2339 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008

by Róbert Oravský, Peter Tóth and Anna Bánociová

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(8), 179; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13080179 - 11 Aug 2020

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 5988

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the ability of selected European countries to face the potential economic crisis caused by COVID-19. Just as other pandemics in the past (e.g., SARS, Spanish influenza, etc.) have had negative economic effects on countries, the current COVID-19 pandemic [...] Read more.

This paper is devoted to the ability of selected European countries to face the potential economic crisis caused by COVID-19. Just as other pandemics in the past (e.g., SARS, Spanish influenza, etc.) have had negative economic effects on countries, the current COVID-19 pandemic is causing the beginning of another economic crisis where countries need to take measures to mitigate the economic effects. In our analysis, we focus on the impact of selected indicators on the GDP of European countries using a linear panel regression to identify significant indicators to set appropriate policies to eliminate potential negative consequences on economic growth due to the current recession. The European countries are divided into four groups according to the measures they took in the fiscal consolidation of the last economic crisis of 2008. In the analysis, we observed how the economic crisis influences GDP, country indebtedness, deficit, tax collection, interest rates, and the consumer confidence index. Our findings include that corporate income tax recorded the biggest decline among other tax collections. The interest rate grew in the group of countries most at risk from the economic crisis, while the interest rate fell in the group of countries that seemed to be safe for investors. The consumer confidence index can be considered interesting, as it fell sharply in the group of countries affected only minimally by the crisis (Switzerland, Finland). Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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16 pages, 365 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Risk Management: Rethinking Fashion Supply Chain Management for Multinational Corporations in Light of the COVID-19 Outbreak

by May McMaster, Charlie Nettleton, Christeen Tom, Belanda Xu, Cheng Cao and Ping Qiao

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(8), 173; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13080173 - 4 Aug 2020

Cited by 143 | Viewed by 50058

Abstract

Through an international business risk management lens, the widespread and catalytic implications of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on the supply chains (SCs) of fashion multinational corporations (MNC) are analyzed to contribute to existing research on supply chain management (SCM). While a movement towards [...] Read more.

Through an international business risk management lens, the widespread and catalytic implications of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on the supply chains (SCs) of fashion multinational corporations (MNC) are analyzed to contribute to existing research on supply chain management (SCM). While a movement towards agile, networked supply chain models had been in consideration for many firms prior to the outbreak, the pandemic highlights issues inherent in supply chains that employ concentrated production. We examined the current state of fashion supply chains, risks that have arisen historically and recently, and existing risk mitigation methods. We found that while lean supply chain management is primarily favored for its cost and waste reduction advantages, the structure is limited by the lack of supply chain transparency that results as well as the increasing demand volatility observed even before the COVID-19 outbreak. Although this problem might exist in the agile supply chain, agile supply chains combat this by focusing on enhancing communication and buyer-supplier relationships to improve information exchange. However, this structure also entails an associated increase in inventory and inventory costs. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused supply and demand disruptions which have resonating effects on supply chain activities and management, indicating a need to build flexibility to mitigate epidemic and demand risks. To address this, several strategies that firms can adopt to control for such risks are outlined and key areas for further research are identified which consider parties both upstream and downstream of the fashion supply chain. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

21 pages, 1673 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Consumer Behaviour during Crises: Preliminary Research on How Coronavirus Has Manifested Consumer Panic Buying, Herd Mentality, Changing Discretionary Spending and the Role of the Media in Influencing Behaviour

by Mary Loxton, Robert Truskett, Brigitte Scarf, Laura Sindone, George Baldry and Yinong Zhao

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(8), 166; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13080166 - 30 Jul 2020

Cited by 244 | Viewed by 95075

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic spread globally from its outbreak in China in early 2020, negatively affecting economies and industries on a global scale. In line with historic crises and shock events including the 2002-04 SARS outbreak, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake and 2017 [...] Read more.

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic spread globally from its outbreak in China in early 2020, negatively affecting economies and industries on a global scale. In line with historic crises and shock events including the 2002-04 SARS outbreak, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake and 2017 Hurricane Irma, COVID-19 has significantly impacted global economic conditions, causing significant economic downturns, company and industry failures, and increased unemployment. To understand how conditions created by the pandemic to date compare to the aforementioned shock events, we conducted a thorough literature review focusing on the presentation of panic buying and herd mentality behaviours, changes to discretionary consumer spending as defined by Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, and the impact of global media on these behaviours. The methodology utilised to analyse panic buying, herd mentality and altered patterns of consumer discretionary spending (according to Maslow’s theory) involved an analysis of consumer spending data, largely focused on Australian and American markets. Here, we analysed the volume and timing of consumer spending patterns; the volumes of spending on specific, highly-demanded consumer goods during the investigative period; and the distribution of spending on luxury and non-durable goods to identify the occurrence of these consumer behaviours. Moreover, to identify the presence of the media in influencing consumer behaviour we focused on web traffic to media sites, alongside keyword and phrase data mining. We conclude that, to date, consumer behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis appears to align with behaviours exhibited during historic shock events. We hope to contribute to the body of research on the early months of this pandemic before longer-term studies are available. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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12 pages, 463 KiB

Open AccessCommunication

An Economic–Business Approach to Clinical Risk Management

by Ubaldo Comite, Kechen Dong, Rita Yi Man Li, M. James C. Crabbe, Xue-Feng Shao and Xiao-Guang Yue

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(6), 135; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13060135 - 23 Jun 2020

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4086

Abstract

This paper introduces risk factors in the field of healthcare and discusses the clinical risks, identification, risk management methods, and tools as well as the analysis of specific situations. Based on documentary analysis, an efficient and coherent methodological choice of an informative and [...] Read more.

This paper introduces risk factors in the field of healthcare and discusses the clinical risks, identification, risk management methods, and tools as well as the analysis of specific situations. Based on documentary analysis, an efficient and coherent methodological choice of an informative and non-interpretative approach, it relies on “unobtrusive” and “non-reactive” information sources, such that the research results are not influenced by the research process itself. To ensure objective and systematical analysis, our research involved three macro-phases: (a) the first involved a skimming (a superficial examination) of the documents collected; (b) the second reading (a thorough examination) allowed a selection of useful information; (c) the third phase involved classification and evaluation of the collected data. This iterative process combined the elements of content and thematic analysis that categorised the information into different categories which were related to the central issues for research purposes. Finally, from the perspective of safety analysis and risk management, we suggest that comprehensive control and operation should be conducted in a holistic way, including patient safety, cost consumption, and organizational responsibility. An organizational strategy that revolves around a constant and gradual risk management process is an important factor in clinical governance which focuses on the safety of patients, operators, and organizations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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26 pages, 5222 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

by Xiao-Guang Yue, Xue-Feng Shao, Rita Yi Man Li, M. James C. Crabbe, Lili Mi, Siyan Hu, Julien S Baker, Liting Liu and Kechen Dong

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(4), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040066 - 3 Apr 2020

Cited by 33 | Viewed by 9146

Abstract

This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe [...] Read more.

This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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Review

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17 pages, 706 KiB

Open AccessReview

The Development and Adoption of Online Learning in Pre- and Post-COVID-19: Combination of Technological System Evolution Theory and Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology

by Ping Qiao, Xiaoman Zhu, Yangzhi Guo, Ying Sun and Chuan Qin

J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(4), 162; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14040162 - 5 Apr 2021

Cited by 64 | Viewed by 14212

Abstract

After the outbreak of COVID-19, schools heavily depend on e-learning technologies and tools to shift from in-person class to online. This review article analyzes the changes of technology evolution and technology adoption of e-learning in pre- and post-COVID-19 based on the Technology System [...] Read more.

After the outbreak of COVID-19, schools heavily depend on e-learning technologies and tools to shift from in-person class to online. This review article analyzes the changes of technology evolution and technology adoption of e-learning in pre- and post-COVID-19 based on the Technology System Evaluation Theory (TSET) and technology adoption of e-learning based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). We intend to explore the interaction of technology evolution and technology adoption in the different focus of e-learning technology in the two stages and the particularity and heterogeneity of the UTAUT model. The results indicate that (1) The moderating results of technology evolution are proposed and evaluated under the UTAUT model before the COVID-19 outbreak. Studies after the COVID-19 pandemic paid more attention to technology efficiency rather than effectiveness; (2) Research on e-learning focuses on the infrastructure to reach more users after the outbreak of COVID-19 because e-learning is the only way to continue education; (3) COVID-19 fear moderates the relationship between the external factors and the behavior intention of e-learning users. The lack of financial support on technology evolution will directly weaken the implementation of new technology. Social Isolation offers more opportunities for students to engage in e-learning. Meanwhile, it slows down the implementation of e-learning because of out-to-date hardware and software. This article offers an enhanced understanding of the interaction of technology evolution and technology adoption under unexpected environments and provides practical insights into how to promote new technology in a way that users will accept and use easily. This study can be tested and extended by empirical research in the future. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)

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